This is the key point for mine. If we effectively stop them playing their 'preferred game style' (i.e. don't play like Freo who just basically let them do whatever they wanted), then I think they'll struggle big time to kick a winning score.
Our biggest risk is a slow start and them getting away to a big lead that we can't chase down. If we hit the game with intensity, turn it into a grind if need be early on, but are within a couple of goals or better at half time, then I think we will do what we've done to a lot of teams this year and grind them into the dust in the second half. x
Squiggle is just one measure, but it is usually a pretty good one for mine as to tell the likelihood a team is ready to 'crack the big one'. There are always exceptions and footy isn't a statistical game played on paper - but if the Lions or the Pies were to go all the way, they would be huge outliers compared to teams that generally win the flag. The fairypuppies were the darlings in 2016, but they did profile well in terms of Squiggle with where they ended up (i.e. their ladder position belied their capability). Overall, there isn't the exceptional sides seen of other seasons, but Geelong and the Swans are the only two in the ballpark.
Pies have roughly the equivalent of our attack from 2005, matched with a much worsed defensive capability. Our profile is similar to West Coast in 2018 which I also found interesting.
Anyway, get the attitude right, go out hard early and knock them off their game (like we did a month ago), and it'll take something extraordinary from the Pies, or one of those days where absolutely everything goes right for a team for them to beat us.
