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for me i'd struggle to see many making it worthwhile on sports outside the main bet types. basically any serious attempt at exotics would be over soon after it began if you are any good. head to head, lines, under/over probably the keys. it's a very good time to be a smart punter that wants to make some extra cash here and there with some of the sports markets though.

happy to be proven wrong.
 
54Dogs said:
Don't think the time / value equation is worth it for sports betting with no MBLs. Not my space though so hard to comment.

It's a bit closer with horse / harness racing. I've tracked my results closely for the past 5 yrs, but over the last 2 yrs have also monitored time invested to see whether it's worth the effort. Net profit after costs (software / dynamic) as follows:

Oct 2013 > Jun 2014 ($538 pw)
Jul 2014 > Jun 2015 ($480 pw)
Jul 2015 > Jun 2016 ($539 pw)
Jul 2016 > Jun 2017 ($461 pw) Time invested = 11 hrs pw
Jul 2017 > May 2018 ($721 pw) Time invested = 13 hrs pw

So 2017 FY was essentially $42 per hour where as this yr has been $55 per hour. Obviously there's a big block of time each Sat afternoon, plus either Fri or Sat night depending on what else is on. Sunday is normally family day and I work FT so nothing through the week, other than maybe a bit of BF trading on the trots if there's enough on a single night midweek.

The problem is when I tried to extend that time for a trial period when on holidays the time/value equation drops dramatically. Sure you make more money when investing midweek as well but not at the same rate because of reduced liquidity, particularly for trading. So it's hard to justify the time. For me 10-15 hours is the sweet spot to make a bit of coin but keep some balance.
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That's ****en awesome. I'm impressed if it's true.
 

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checkraiseulite said:
are you paying premium charge if a lot of the profits are trading profits?

are the figures pre or post premium charge?
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Theoretically if true these would be part trading profits, but BF would still be negative due to other strategies employed so would still have some wiggle room before reaching 20% and well away from 60% PC. BF trading would be approx 40% of overall strategy, with 70% of that being racing in-play. BF Gold membership would offset $175 of dynamic costs each 6 months. Lifetime racing traders membership would mean no ongoing costs for software from this yr.
 
the harry said:
It's worse than "not ideal", their business crunches the odds of winning selections. There isn't really any other way to put it.
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yes, they are effectively taking money straight out of the pockets of all tote punters. It beggars belief that this state of events was ever allowed to start and is allowed to continue. Have never seen anyone from the TAB come out with a straight answer about this situation.
 
cakewalk06 said:
yes, they are effectively taking money straight out of the pockets of all tote punters. It beggars belief that this state of events was ever allowed to start and is allowed to continue. Have never seen anyone from the TAB come out with a straight answer about this situation.
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Their answer would be "it makes commercial sense" though. The reasons for it aren't unknown, their just not widely publicised. So long as the rebate is less than the 20% tote take out (net off taxes and fees) TAB would be loving it.
 
Jugada said:
Rebates dont effect the take out from pools. The average punters sees no difference
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They bet all the horses they like to below there true win price as more volume more rebate...
Say they have it rated 3$ shot and its 4$ they bet it all the way down to 2.8$ as they win more with the rebate..

So it does have an affect on every punter... as if you are on there side (the right side) you are still losing as the horse is now below the correct win price
 

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TryAnHit said:
They bet all the horses they like to below there true win price as more volume more rebate...
Say they have it rated 3$ shot and its 4$ they bet it all the way down to 2.8$ as they win more with the rebate..

So it does have an affect on every punter... as if you are on there side (the right side) you are still losing as the horse is now below the correct win price
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Different point really, but that's fair game imo. Blaming them for being too good at identifying overs and backing those runners is lolsy. The rebate payments themselves make no difference to the punter that is unfair, it can just attract sharper gamblers. There are also punters out there getting rebates that aren't so sharp though
 
Jugada said:
Different point really, but that's fair game imo. Blaming them for being too good at identifying overs and backing those runners is lolsy. The rebate payments themselves make no difference to the punter that is unfair, it can just attract sharper gamblers. There are also punters out there getting rebates that aren't so sharp though
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Argument would be that they can in fact back them to unders and still profit from the rebate, leaving everyone else at a guaranteed loss. The two are linked.

Attracting sharper gamblers makes it more efficient and with a 20% take out (more for exotics) means there isn't overs for anyone.
 
the harry said:
Argument would be that they can in fact back them to unders and still profit from the rebate, leaving everyone else at a guaranteed loss. The two are linked.

Attracting sharper gamblers makes it more efficient and with a 20% take out (more for exotics) means there isn't overs for anyone.
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If you are betting on the tote you are already taking unders. Complaining and thinking its unfair because you just want donk money in the pool seems a bit much.
 
Jugada said:
If you are betting on the tote you are already taking unders. Complaining and thinking its unfair because you just want donk money in the pool seems a bit much.
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Well that's not necessarily true. The market can still be inefficient.

Thinking it's unfair that the uneven playing field leads to a reduction in chance of profitability is hardly a controversial position to take.

Would the average punter be better off but for the rebates mentioned? "Yes" can be the only answer reached.
 
the harry said:
Well that's not necessarily true. The market can still be inefficient.

Thinking it's unfair that the uneven playing field leads to a reduction in chance of profitability is hardly a controversial position to take.

Would the average punter be better off but for the rebates mentioned? "Yes" can be the only answer reached.
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Its not an uneven playing field though. The average punter loses nothing by third party rebates being paid to big customers

The rebates aren't the problem. There are many people getting rebates who operate at a loss. The problem people have is that Z is too sharp. Yes rebates are the reason he plays the tote pools but the problem people have is because he is sharp not because he gets rebates
 
Who does it actually affect though? People at the tab betting single tote on a Sunday wouldn’t know or care about the difference between 118% prior and 120% markets after rebates. Smarter than average mug punters? No they have access to multiple fixed odds accounts and best tote for all of those. Very smart part timers? These ones like have enough liquidity on betfair and unlimited/limited not banned accounts to cover bets before resorting to single tote. The big punters where their banned everywhere, BF lacks liquidity for their volume and forced to take on multiples for added volume.

In the end it’s not a big deal IMO. I have no grudges against it.
 
it would be better if it was transparent and everyone knew what you needed to turnover to be entitled to certain levels of rebate.

if you had a >7 per cent rebate, a decent mathematical mind and a practically unlimited roll i imagine it is very easy to make a large amount of money.
 
checkraiseulite said:
it would be better if it was transparent and everyone knew what you needed to turnover to be entitled to certain levels of rebate.

if you had a >7 per cent rebate, a decent mathematical mind and a practically unlimited roll i imagine it is very easy to make a large amount of money.
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I think Tatts used to be $2 million per 6 months for a rebate around that % for Tasmanian clients and displayed it on site

You can easily just contact them to discuss it though
 
TryAnHit said:
They bet all the horses they like to below there true win price as more volume more rebate...
Say they have it rated 3$ shot and its 4$ they bet it all the way down to 2.8$ as they win more with the rebate..

So it does have an affect on every punter... as if you are on there side (the right side) you are still losing as the horse is now below the correct win price
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That's not strictly true... there's a point whereby if you bet it beyond it's price you're costing yourself.

Your point is valid in that they can have more on, but they can't just back it down to 2.8 as in your example.
 
The rebates have a minor effect on general punters but give a significant edge to Zeljko etc. The major edge Zeljko has that does have a major effect on general punters is the ability to dump in or withdraw money from the pool after the race jumps.

Tote and exotic betting was great in the past with huge pools and the ability to get on for a decent earn, but sadly Tabcorp earn a bigger take from fixed odds than tote betting so have been happy to let it die. Corporates have played there part in its death as well.
 

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