Professional Punters

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You may have an edge in AFL, but it needs to be a bigger edge than the bookies build into their markets.
Even if you find incidents where your edge exceeds the market percentage, you don't want to miss a better price out there or you're seeking yourself short.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you however here is what I can share from my own experience.

I keep track of my punting on a spreadsheet and have been doing so for three years now ('23 will be the fourth year).

I am up on AFL in that time and in '21 and '22 finished the season very much in the black.

On every other sport I am at best slightly down, and on soccer in particular I am down bigtime.

AFL is the only sport I follow closely enough to feel like I have any kind of edge.

The rest is straight up mug punting i.e. putting a few dollars on a game here, a fight there, and so on.

I don't mind losing (overall) on the other sports because it is just for fun and I only bet small amounts.

If I don't have at least a couple of dollars on a game or a fight or an F1 race I just don't care enough to watch.

It could be that if I actually tried to pay attention to the non-AFL sports maybe I could do better.

However I honestly believe my knowledge of AFL (along with other factors) is what allows me to actually win on it.

Then again, I could end '23 massively in the hole on AFL as well, I might not have any edge after all.

Only time will tell, I suppose.
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How many bets on your spreadsheet in total?
 

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99 Problems said:
The word was the Dr. Nick operation ran at about 30% long term. That’s the operation that moved markets more than anyone else in modern Australian wagering. Most pros I’ve spoken to on track or at things like betfair functions generally say they run at 7-10%, but are always looking at ways to increase volume and maintain that %.

Some more specialist guys can run at a bigger PoT, but that comes with less bets and bigger stakes. If you want to take that approach, variance can take care of a smaller bank very quickly.
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Dr Nick possibly the biggest outlier in all of betting worldwide.

would have been a very expensive operation to run however but 30-40% POT betting well after MBL kicked off are true.

Now end boss in Japan in the Keiren
 
targett said:
20% POC tax on Victorian racing. As punters our days are numbered. I don't care how good you are no one is beating 150% markets. Initially bigger corps will run small corps out betting better percentages. Won't even need employees to run a book that's 150%, AI will do that.
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higher the margin usually = less confidence in pricing.
 
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By far the best professional punter I've come across. Cards close to chest, never has a losing bet, incredible skill to share winning bets after they've been decided, may or may not be a rule breaker. Just an uncanny knack to be a unique individual. Probably wouldn't go well in a team environment.
 
Jugada said:
Having to bump existing markets up in % because of taxes doesn't some how make them any more or less sharp
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It could. Opening prices only come from a couple of sources really. They could decide to invest less in the resources to create those prices under the protection of increased %.

I mean it’s happened before. In the early Corporate days they had trading floors full of very well paid good analysts, plenty of who are now pro punters. Corps realised they could employ people on half the money and just let a few sharps knock their market into shape early and rely on betfair late.
 
99 Problems said:
It could. Opening prices only come from a couple of sources really. They could decide to invest less in the resources to create those prices under the protection of increased %.

I mean it’s happened before. In the early Corporate days they had trading floors full of very well paid good analysts, plenty of who are now pro punters. Corps realised they could employ people on half the money and just let a few sharps knock their market into shape early and rely on betfair late.
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They don't have that protection though do they? The market % is going up because they are being taxed more, its not going to create them a safety net of extra profits
 
Jugada said:
They don't have that protection though do they? The market % is going up because they are being taxed more, its not going to create them a safety net of extra profits
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Vast majority of turnover comes in the last 5-10 minutes. Closing percentage will go up a few %, but overall markets will still be massively inefficient from market open. Will mainly hurt your average mug punter and maybe some really big players who need to leave it late for volume reasons, especially if betfair turnover drops.
 
Racing bettors whinge so much about the game being gone but despite the higher market %s early in betting the pricing has never been easier to beat for those actually good. A little higher tax won't change that for them.

I'd happily bet into 1.85 AFL Lines if I could get MBLs for them early in the week.
 

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sohohoho said:
Racing bettors whinge so much about the game being gone but despite the higher market %s early in betting the pricing has never been easier to beat for those actually good. A little higher tax won't change that for them.

I'd happily bet into 1.85 AFL Lines if I could get MBLs for them early in the week.
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Feel free to enlighten us further on how to beat the great game oh wise one.
 
awfl said:
So I've just found this thread after deciding to go pro....
Just deposited 15k into 3 books (Sportsbet, TAB and Topsport)

150 unit starting bankroll betting $100 units

Im only 29 and have been thinking about doing this for a while. I'm single, unmarried and live alone in a unit so don't have many expenses. I've quit my job last week and have 10k in my saving account incase things go south. I work in the trade industry as a painter and it's piss easy to.find work so.if this fails I'll be able to get another job no issue.

Wish me luck
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Four months prior to posting this you didn't know how a futures bet worked, so this a meteoric rise.

As a novice myself, I'll be following your tips.
 
sohohoho said:
Racing bettors whinge so much about the game being gone but despite the higher market %s early in betting the pricing has never been easier to beat for those actually good. A little higher tax won't change that for them.

I'd happily bet into 1.85 AFL Lines if I could get MBLs for them early in the week.
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any form of argument that is supporting higher taxes, takeouts and market percentages is a bad one for punters.
 
sohohoho said:
I'd happily bet into 1.85 AFL Lines if I could get MBLs for them early in the week.
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w post

4THAWN said:
any form of argument that is supporting higher taxes, takeouts and market percentages is a bad one for punters.
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Depends on what the trade off is. For sharp punters, any price is just window dressing if you can't actually get $ down.
 
so an update after roughly 1 month

started saturday 25th feb

started with 150 units and have now 158 units and have withdrawn 18 units (6units each thursday)

still havent worked since i quit my job and living off punting so far,

hopefully dont end up living in my car
 
awfl said:
so an update after roughly 1 month

started saturday 25th feb

started with 150 units and have now 158 units and have withdrawn 18 units (6units each thursday)

still havent worked since i quit my job and living off punting so far,

hopefully dont end up living in my car
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also 1 unit = 100 dollars
 
awfl said:
so an update after roughly 1 month

started saturday 25th feb

started with 150 units and have now 158 units and have withdrawn 18 units (6units each thursday)

still havent worked since i quit my job and living off punting so far,

hopefully dont end up living in my car
Click to expand...

How are you living on $600 a week?
 
This is where…..
Sh!t , time to put the bets on!

season 2 tent GIF by Shameless
 
yamborghinidream said:
w post


Depends on what the trade off is. For sharp punters, any price is just window dressing if you can't actually get $ down.
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Pushing for MBL's on sports like Richard Irvine is - I fully support. Would be interesting to see for sure.

At the cost of even worse % markets ? Overall for the state of the game that is not good, and shouldn't be looked at as a way to bargain for sports MBLs.
 
Sport MBL is never going to happen though, was much more important for Racing.

Irvine has not done anything to progress it for 6+ years, he does what Kingsley wants and that ain't sport.
 

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