Prediction Rank our players heading in to the 2021 season

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DanA

DanA

Norm Smith Medallist
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May 15, 2006
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This is obviously subjective but i'm interested to see how people rate players current ability heading into round 1. Consideration for improvement this year made in comments, but not future years. For me:

Elite - Top 5 for their role
1. Hawkins - IMO he was the most valuable player in the AFL last year
2. Dangerfield - Still an elite mid but has slowed a little
3. Stewart - One of the best medium back men in the league
4. Duncan - One of the best users of the ball and wingers in the game
5. Blicavs - Elite as both a key defender and ruck that plays a kick behind play

Very Good - Top 10 for their role
6. Cameron - Has been elite in the past, was slightly off that last year
7. Guthrie - Was elite last year, but hasn't done so consistently
8. Menegola - Hugely underrated by Cats fans

Good - Would edge into most sides top 10 players
9. Smith - Has consistently been very good during his career, faded slightly from that level
10. Higgins - Has at times been very good but now a solid good player
11. Selwood - Was elite for 10 years, but has declined with a few injuries and age
12. Parfitt - Has developed into a good young player, still ascending

Above Average - Would regularly start for any team
13. O'Connor - Good solid defender
14. Henderson - Since being a Cat IMO he's consistently been above average as a KPD
15. Miers- He's developed into above average small forward

Average - Would regularly start
16. Bews - Just a consistent lockdown player
17. Rohan - Low possession but lots of pressure
18. Henry - Super solid, athletic defender with limited impact carrying the ball
19. Kolodjashnij - See Henry
20. Touhy - Has previously been above average but seemed to have dropped a little
21. Stanley - I think he's the definition of average for starting AFL ruckmen. Probably 9th best out of 18 teams
22. Dahlhaus - Scrappy hard worker but not clean enough to be rated higher

Below Average - Would get some games but not regular best 22
23. Clarke - I think he can jump several rungs into above average this season
24. Atkins - I have a gut feeling he'll be our most improved player this year. Jump to above average
25. Ratugolea - Hard to see how he gets games short-term but I'm still think he can contribute if called upon
26. Simpson - Arguably higher off the back half of last season but will have to fight for opportunity.
27. Zuthrie - I could see him playing regularly in the future but like Simpson will need opportunity.
28. Evans - Showed a but in pre-season but might not see much time this season given list strength
29. Close - Saw games last season but was a little lucky and IMO the list is now stronger
30. Fort - Has progressed in his time as a Cat and will be good cover for Stanley when healthy


I'm sure I missed someone. How would you rank them?
 
Tough on Guthrie who won the Carji last season and was named AA. I'd still consider him elite at this stage.

Elite:
1. Hawkins - Coleman medallist 2020
2. Dangerfield - Such a versatile player, still got it.
3. Duncan - Had a very good 2020.
4. Blicavs - Best KPD in the AFL, IMO.
5. Guthrie - AA & Carji Greeves Medallist in 2020.
6. Cameran - Maybe not a stellar 2020 (GWS did not cope with hub life, they even admit it). But I still have to call him elite for what he can do if everything goes right.
 
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Really good summation, DanA. Hard to disagree too much at all with many of your assessments.

Just a few comments...

Won't be long before Jez underlines again exactly why he is considered elite. A talent that big doesn't just evaporate at this point in his career.
Guthrie and Menegola came a long way last year, and it will be fascinating to see whether they can hold that ground.
I agree with respect to Smith but am slightly more bullish about Higgins. Just seems such a clever and skilful player. Could easily see him in the 'Very Good' category again after this season.
I would see more of a contrast between Henry and Kolo. Henry is far more athletic and Kolo is a better defender. Can acknowledge their value to the team is quite similar, though.
Clark does have a highish ceiling, I agree. Would love to see him show much more of tracking in that direction this year.
Simpson (on limited 2020 sample size, I admit) looks demonstrably better than 'Below Average' to me. As you say, though, has to get out there and prove it consistently.

The only other point I would raise is around your numbering system. Were you just grouping without ranking? If not, I would definitely have Higgins in front of Smith, and then would be reordering some of the groups from 'Above Average' onwards. For example, I would have Hendo and Miers ahead of MOC, for a start.

And, as for those who've touched senior footy on our list, you missed the following:

Ben Jarvis - would have to fit in 'Below Average' (at best) at this point.
Josh Jenkins - he really is 'break glass' for me now, so 'Below Average' as well.
Charlie Constable - would like to think he can push up from 'Below Average', but remains to be seen whether more chances will come.
Quinton Narkle - bit of a conundrum for mine. Should be easily in the 'Average' category but is seemingly struggling to keep up with the others pushing for a spot.

Just my thoughts. of course. And an excellent analysis of our current 'senior list' from you, so thanks for sharing it.
 

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DanA said:
This is obviously subjective but i'm interested to see how people rate players current ability heading into round 1. Consideration for improvement this year made in comments, but not future years. For me:

Elite - Top 5 for their role
1. Hawkins - IMO he was the most valuable player in the AFL last year
2. Dangerfield - Still an elite mid but has slowed a little
3. Stewart - One of the best medium back men in the league
4. Duncan - One of the best users of the ball and wingers in the game
5. Blicavs - Elite as both a key defender and ruck that plays a kick behind play

Very Good - Top 10 for their role
6. Cameron - Has been elite in the past, was slightly off that last year
7. Guthrie - Was elite last year, but hasn't done so consistently
8. Menegola - Hugely underrated by Cats fans

Good - Would edge into most sides top 10 players
9. Smith - Has consistently been very good during his career, faded slightly from that level
10. Higgins - Has at times been very good but now a solid good player
11. Selwood - Was elite for 10 years, but has declined with a few injuries and age
12. Parfitt - Has developed into a good young player, still ascending

Above Average - Would regularly start for any team
13. O'Connor - Good solid defender
14. Henderson - Since being a Cat IMO he's consistently been above average as a KPD
15. Miers- He's developed into above average small forward

Average - Would regularly start
16. Bews - Just a consistent lockdown player
17. Rohan - Low possession but lots of pressure
18. Henry - Super solid, athletic defender with limited impact carrying the ball
19. Kolodjashnij - See Henry
20. Touhy - Has previously been above average but seemed to have dropped a little
21. Stanley - I think he's the definition of average for starting AFL ruckmen. Probably 9th best out of 18 teams
22. Dahlhaus - Scrappy hard worker but not clean enough to be rated higher

Below Average - Would get some games but not regular best 22
23. Clarke - I think he can jump several rungs into above average this season
24. Atkins - I have a gut feeling he'll be our most improved player this year. Jump to above average
25. Ratugolea - Hard to see how he gets games short-term but I'm still think he can contribute if called upon
26. Simpson - Arguably higher off the back half of last season but will have to fight for opportunity.
27. Zuthrie - I could see him playing regularly in the future but like Simpson will need opportunity.
28. Evans - Showed a but in pre-season but might not see much time this season given list strength
29. Close - Saw games last season but was a little lucky and IMO the list is now stronger
30. Fort - Has progressed in his time as a Cat and will be good cover for Stanley when healthy


I'm sure I missed someone. How would you rank them?
Click to expand...
I would move Stanley above kolo and henry just cause the two of them seem to always costs us goals. And Higgins above Smith. But I think you've done a very good job.
 
According to Champion Data:

Elite - Blicavs, Hawkins, Dangerfield, Menegola.
Above Average - Rohan, Simpson, Stewart, Cameron, Stanley, Fort, Higgins.
Average - Dahlhaus, O'Connor, Miers, Bews, Ratugolea, Duncan, Selwood, C.Guthrie, Smith, Tuohy, Henry, Atkins.
Below Average - Henderson, Parfitt, Close.
Poor - Narkle, Kolodjashnij

Some absolute head-scratchers in there.
 
winty said:
According to Champion Data:

Elite - Blicavs, Hawkins, Dangerfield, Menegola.
Above Average - Rohan, Simpson, Stewart, Cameron, Stanley, Fort, Higgins.
Average - Dahlhaus, O'Connor, Miers, Bews, Ratugolea, Duncan, Selwood, C.Guthrie, Smith, Tuohy, Henry, Atkins.
Below Average - Henderson, Parfitt, Close.
Poor - Narkle, Kolodjashnij

Some absolute head-scratchers in there.
Click to expand...

The 'what the?' moments in that list are truly legendary. Fort as 'above average' and Duncan as 'average' are my personal highlights. Selsy, Guthrie, Hendo and Parf also stand out as particularly 'impressive' distortions of reality.

I wonder if CD ever looks at lists like these and notes that they clearly need a whole lot more work on improving their system. With results like these, their ranking criteria could hardly be more all over the place if they tried.
 
Last edited:
winty said:
According to Champion Data:

Elite - Blicavs, Hawkins, Dangerfield, Menegola.
Above Average - Rohan, Simpson, Stewart, Cameron, Stanley, Fort, Higgins.
Average - Dahlhaus, O'Connor, Miers, Bews, Ratugolea, Duncan, Selwood, C.Guthrie, Smith, Tuohy, Henry, Atkins.
Below Average - Henderson, Parfitt, Close.
Poor - Narkle, Kolodjashnij

Some absolute head-scratchers in there.
Click to expand...

Rule 1 in footy. Never look at CD ranking systems to gain any insight into AFL.
Great for raw data & supercoach and that’s where it ends.
The time they ranked Menzel elite in the year we delisted him remains my all time favourite
 
Hamingja said:
I understand with CD that people will be overrated on stats i.e Menegola but I have NFI how Cox is elite and Rohan is above average. They see the ball about half a dozen times a match.
Click to expand...

The funny thing is according to Champion Data, Mason Cox is the 5th best key forward in the game, ahead of the likes of Jack Riewoldt, Tom Lynch, Josh Kennedy and Jeremy Cameron.
 
winty said:
According to Champion Data:

Elite - Blicavs, Hawkins, Dangerfield, Menegola.
Above Average - Rohan, Simpson, Stewart, Cameron, Stanley, Fort, Higgins.
Average - Dahlhaus, O'Connor, Miers, Bews, Ratugolea, Duncan, Selwood, C.Guthrie, Smith, Tuohy, Henry, Atkins.
Below Average - Henderson, Parfitt, Close.
Poor - Narkle, Kolodjashnij

Some absolute head-scratchers in there.
Click to expand...
Geez, how good are we going to be when we get Fort and Simpson back into the 22.
 
DanA said:
This is obviously subjective but i'm interested to see how people rate players current ability heading into round 1. Consideration for improvement this year made in comments, but not future years. For me:

Elite - Top 5 for their role
1. Hawkins - IMO he was the most valuable player in the AFL last year
2. Dangerfield - Still an elite mid but has slowed a little
3. Stewart - One of the best medium back men in the league
4. Duncan - One of the best users of the ball and wingers in the game
5. Blicavs - Elite as both a key defender and ruck that plays a kick behind play

Very Good - Top 10 for their role
6. Cameron - Has been elite in the past, was slightly off that last year
7. Guthrie - Was elite last year, but hasn't done so consistently
8. Menegola - Hugely underrated by Cats fans

Good - Would edge into most sides top 10 players
9. Smith - Has consistently been very good during his career, faded slightly from that level
10. Higgins - Has at times been very good but now a solid good player
11. Selwood - Was elite for 10 years, but has declined with a few injuries and age
12. Parfitt - Has developed into a good young player, still ascending

Above Average - Would regularly start for any team
13. O'Connor - Good solid defender
14. Henderson - Since being a Cat IMO he's consistently been above average as a KPD
15. Miers- He's developed into above average small forward

Average - Would regularly start
16. Bews - Just a consistent lockdown player
17. Rohan - Low possession but lots of pressure
18. Henry - Super solid, athletic defender with limited impact carrying the ball
19. Kolodjashnij - See Henry
20. Touhy - Has previously been above average but seemed to have dropped a little
21. Stanley - I think he's the definition of average for starting AFL ruckmen. Probably 9th best out of 18 teams
22. Dahlhaus - Scrappy hard worker but not clean enough to be rated higher

Below Average - Would get some games but not regular best 22
23. Clarke - I think he can jump several rungs into above average this season
24. Atkins - I have a gut feeling he'll be our most improved player this year. Jump to above average
25. Ratugolea - Hard to see how he gets games short-term but I'm still think he can contribute if called upon
26. Simpson - Arguably higher off the back half of last season but will have to fight for opportunity.
27. Zuthrie - I could see him playing regularly in the future but like Simpson will need opportunity.
28. Evans - Showed a but in pre-season but might not see much time this season given list strength
29. Close - Saw games last season but was a little lucky and IMO the list is now stronger
30. Fort - Has progressed in his time as a Cat and will be good cover for Stanley when healthy


I'm sure I missed someone. How would you rank them?
Click to expand...
Gees I thought I was negative about Cameron but to have him behind Blicavs. Wowee.
 

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terry_bright said:
Rule 1 in footy. Never look at CD ranking systems to gain any insight into AFL.
Great for raw data & supercoach and that’s where it ends.
The time they ranked Menzel elite in the year we delisted him remains my all time favourite
Click to expand...
He kicked 15 goals in the first five games and was a lock in everyone’s rolling all Australian team at that point. he then missed the next 12 matches due to injury. I’ll repeat that, he missed 12 matches in a row due to injury In the middle of the season. he then came back with virtually no match practise and whilst was not the same player prior to the groin injury still kicked 11 goals from 7 matches. That’s more then 2 goals a game from a medium tall despite an injury plagued season. It’s elite in most books.
 
goyoucatters said:
The 'what the?' moments in that list are truly legendary. Fort as 'above average' and Duncan as 'average' are my personal highlights. Selsy, Guthrie, Hendo and Parf also stand out as particularly 'impressive' distortions of reality.

I wonder if CD ever looks at lists like these and notes that they clearly need a whole lot more work on improving their system. With results like these, their ranking criteria could hardly be more all over the place if they tried.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure how many times this needs to be said but the categories are not an absolute list but a ranking by position. 'Elite' means you are in the top 10% of the position you are in as defined by CD. This obviously benefits players who are in positions with a relatively small number of players, like ruckman. Mitch Duncan averages more ratings point than Sam Simpson but he's also classified in a position that has way more players across the league than Simpson.
 
DanA said:
Harsh on Blicavs. He was top 5 in the B&F for like the 5th season in a row and made the All Australia Squad while Cameron had a pretty ordinary 2020.
Click to expand...
Cameron is a two time all Australian, norm smith winner and 9 times leading club goal kicker. Blicavs is 0 All Australians. Blicavs is also older then Cameron. it’s not harsh on Blicavs at all. Its harsh on Cameron.
 
Seeds said:
Cameron is a two time all Australian, norm smith winner and 9 times leading club goal kicker. Blicavs is 0 All Australians. Blicavs is also older then Cameron. it’s not harsh on Blicavs at all. Its harsh on Cameron.
Click to expand...

When did Cameron win a Norm Smith?

And if we're ranking players heading into the 2021 season, surely we look at their efforts from the most recently completed season and based on last year Blicavs had a better season than Cameron

Not doubting Cameron's ability, and if he returns to 2019 form (no reason he shouldn't) then he'll push back up into the elite category, but hard to rate him elite based on last year
 
cats_09 said:
When did Cameron win a Norm Smith?

And if we're ranking players heading into the 2021 season, surely we look at their efforts from the most recently completed season and based on last year Blicavs had a better season than Cameron

Not doubting Cameron's ability, and if he returns to 2019 form (no reason he shouldn't) then he'll push back up into the elite category, but hard to rate him elite based on last year
Click to expand...

If Cameron can't be rated elite Blicavs shouldn't even be rated good.

There is no way Blicavs is a better footballer than Jeremy Cameron. No matter how much spin you desperately put on it.
 
catscollector said:
What is Blicavs actually elite at exactly?
Is he an elite mid, defender or ruckman?

Footy skills-wise, he's not even in the same class as Jeremy Cameron. Cameron's quickly approaching 500 career goals! He'd likely be a brilliant defender if he had to play the position too.
Click to expand...

Blicavs is an elite KPD, and also midfielder in his winger/ruck role which is unique role fit to his attributes.

Partridge said:
If Cameron can't be rated elite Blicavs shouldn't even be rated good.

There is no way Blicavs is a better footballer than Jeremy Cameron. No matter how much spin you desperately put on it.
Click to expand...

The description defined the criteria for elite as top 5 in their position.

Blicavs was a top 5 KPD last year, Cameron was not a top 5 KPF last year. No mental gymnastics required, that’s just facts. No question Cameron has been elite, and very well could get back there, but heading into the season that’s not where he sits.
 
thejester said:
I'm not sure how many times this needs to be said but the categories are not an absolute list but a ranking by position. 'Elite' means you are in the top 10% of the position you are in as defined by CD. This obviously benefits players who are in positions with a relatively small number of players, like ruckman. Mitch Duncan averages more ratings point than Sam Simpson but he's also classified in a position that has way more players across the league than Simpson.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the clarification. I still fail to see how any system worthy of respect classifies Duncan as 'average', no matter the sample size. He's pushed for AA squad selection in recent years. And yet he's supposedly 'average' when compared to the pool of midfielders across the comp.

Spare. Me.
 
DanA said:
Blicavs was a top 5 KPD last year, Cameron was not a top 5 KPF last year. No mental gymnastics required, that’s just facts. No question Cameron has been elite, and very well could get back there, but heading into the season that’s not where he sits.
Click to expand...

That's debatable, because no way did he play there all year for starters. He's spent a good chunk of the last two seasons away from key defence whenever Scott decides (in his imagination) that he's a great ruckman or winger that particular week.

Cameron definitely wasn't a top 5 key position forward last year either, completely agree, but I suspect he'd put together a few reasonable seasons in that position first.
 
Of the players listed in Op, there are a few comments I want to add to them;

Cameron - Average year last year in a deplorable Giants team that were so dysfunctional its embarrassing. As long as he isn't injured him and Hawk will be our main goal scorers by a big way. Sadly that means they will cost each other a chance at a Coleman.

Guthrie/Menegola - Both were incredible last year, but the worry is will they maintain last years form, find a new level, or drop back to their old, flash in the pan, inconsistent ways. Guthrie last year had games where he made the result for us. Will he be that good again or was last season a one off.

Parfitt/O'Connor - Both improved on the previous years and I think if they continue on that incline they join the "very very good" bracket with guys like Selwood etc. Guys who consistently put out 7.5/8 out of 10 performances. Because both could be elite midfielders in my opinion but a lot needs to go right for them.

Close/Evans/Narkle/Simpson/Clarke - This group needs games where appropriate but out of the list I think Evans and Simpson get the most games and development. If Evans takes Dahls role he will keep him out. Performs as many pressure acts and can score from anywhere inside 50. Dahl can't kick over a jam jar at the moment.
Simpson is a different mid to what we have, and if he keeps his development going he will be a starting mid in 2 years time. But we are now stacked at mid. Close and Narkle will have to rely on injuries for games, along with Sav/Fort/Zuthrie.

Atkins has looked really good in defense and I would rather him bringing the ball out of defense than Bews. Hilariously, Bews looks better taking the ball forward in the praccy matches, so I wonder if they trial Bews as a defensive forward and Atkins as a lock down defender.
 
goyoucatters said:
Thanks for the clarification. I still fail to see how any system worthy of respect classifies Duncan as 'average', no matter the sample size. He's pushed for AA squad selection in recent years. And yet he's supposedly 'average' when compared to the pool of midfielders across the comp.

Spare. Me.
Click to expand...
CD don't publish the prospectus anymore, but a quick bit of googling suggests 10 midfielders were rated elite this year, which mean an overall group of 100. 'Average' in the CD system means 35-50% IIRC. Once you start ranking midfielders from across the comp I don't think it's outrageous to say he falls somewhere between 36 and 50.
 
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