Preview Rd 1 - Prematch Discussion - Collingwood vs Hawthorn - 7:50 Fri 30/3/12 MCG

[Ugottabjokin]

Possible line ups

Collingwood:

B: Toovey, Reid, OBrien
HB: Shaw, Tarrant, Maxwell
C: Clarke, Swan, Thomas
HF: Sidebottom, Cloke, Fasolo
F: Paine, Dawes, Blair
R: Jolly, Ball, Pendlebury
I: Goldsack, Young, Rounds Sub: Seedsman
E: Elliott, Yagmoor, Keeffe

Hawthorn:

B: Guerra, Boumann, Gibson
HB: Birchall, Schoenmakers, Stratton
C: Lewis, Hodge, Smith
HF: Burgoyne, Franklin, Gunston
F: Rioli, Hale, Puopolo
R: McCauley, Mitchell, Sewell
I: Suckling, Shiels, Bruest Sub: Savage
E: Ellis, Osborne, Bateman

Just for the Hawks i think Whitecross will be in our best 22. Best 25 at the minimum. Very under rated. Don't ask me who will be out as i am struggling with that one. I also doubt Ellis will be the sub was playing for Box Hill today and not showing heaps. Clinton Young is another that could also get a look in. Wouldn't be surprised to see no Liam Shiels either as haven't seen much of him in the NAB but no real news on any injury.

For you guys i highly doubt Tarrant to play and maybe Keefe to come as another tall and play back up ruck to give Jolly a bit of a rest. Not sure who would come in for Maxwell if his ankle doesn't come up but would expect him to be there.

 

[PieNSauce]

Just for the Hawks i think Whitecross will be in our best 22. Best 25 at the minimum. Very under rated. Don't ask me who will be out as i am struggling with that one. I also doubt Ellis will be the sub was playing for Box Hill today and not showing heaps. Clinton Young is another that could also get a look in. Wouldn't be surprised to see no Liam Shiels either as haven't seen much of him in the NAB but no real news on any injury.

For you guys i highly doubt Tarrant to play and maybe Keefe to come as another tall and play back up ruck to give Jolly a bit of a rest. Not sure who would come in for Maxwell if his ankle doesn't come up but would expect him to be there.

Keefe is not a backup ruck option IMO. If he comes in it will be to play permanently in the backline and Dawes will support Jolly in the ruck with Paine to bolster the forward line while he does. This has been Bucks' strategy in the NAB cup and I expect it to continue. I reckon it's worthwhile putting faith in Paine early even at the risk of losing a few early matches.

Frankly I don't believe that Hawthorn have anyone in their side who can hold Cloke so if we can match it in the middle I'd say we're a better than even chance to win this one. Hawthorn's forward line looks a little one dimensional to me so it will be critical to limit Buddy's influence when the ball does get down there. With Tarrant no certain starter I'm not overly confident of that happening.

It all once again points to the need to win the midfield battle and I reckon if Jolly holds up we're a big chance to do that. For me a narrow victory or at worst a narrow loss.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

On pre-season form I expect Hawthorn to give us a decent hiding, like 30-40 points.

If Tarrant actually plays though, it'll either be a smaller loss, or we're a chance to win, because I know Hawthorn don't like hearing this but Buddy is always the key against us.

Against us, they're a one man team. We keep Buddy under control, we win, simple as that. I'm yet to see Hawthorn beat us without Franklin, or with Frankin kicking less than 4 goals. It just hasn't happened yet.

 

[Scodog10]

Roughy's good to go may be a bit rusty to start with but he will more than handy for us this year. It's interesting to note the comments about talent in this thread time will tell

What sort of output do you expect from him this year? Because IMO anything above 30 goals for the season and 10 possessions a game is a bonus and if Buddy goes down you'll probably need at least double that output to challenge the best teams over the course of the season.

To put it in perspective the only player I've ever seen have a good season following that injury was Rocca in 06. The main reason being that he was a below average athlete at best when he did the achilles so it didnt really affect his mobility. He also completely lost his leap post injury.

I'm not saying Roughy will face the same problems it's more just a cautionary tale.

 

[otfc42]

If, if, if, if, if......

We put the strongest side available on the paddock. A lot of clubs are having roblems with injuries to key players atm. This is a game that will test our depth and our fringe players.

No excuses, just get back to the intensity and forward defensive pressure of 2 years ago.

 

[Nicco_jj]

We will get smashed.
but yeh go us

Hahaha.

I doubt either team will smash the other.
My thoughts are our mid field > hawks mid, their forward line > our backline atm and our forward line > their backline.
So it'll be pretty even.
I'd be keen to let thomas run with Mitchell for a bit.



What's Parko's formula again?

 

[doppleganger]

On pre-season form I expect Hawthorn to give us a decent hiding, like 30-40 points.

What pre-season form??

Why are people actually putting merit against Mickey Mouse nab cup games??

The last game against the Aints was our most senior line-up, and we absolutely mauled them...it was back to 2010 style win, ie a 30 scoring shot but only 50 point win, if we had kicked straight it would have been an 80 point belting.

Also, our kids went with Adelaide for almost 3Qs....that is bl00dy good exposed form if you ask me, as Adelaide are like Essendon on 2011, ie have come out all guns blazing.

Against us, they're a one man team. We keep Buddy under control, we win, simple as that. I'm yet to see Hawthorn beat us without Franklin, or with Frankin kicking less than 4 goals. It just hasn't happened yet.

Yep, it is always the case.

Our mids hold their own against everybody, a fit Jolly will be a HUGE advantage for us....so despite still missing half a dozen best 22 players, it will come down to if we can nullify Buddy.

If Tarrant doesn't play, the job needs to go to a Goldsack, Toovey or Maxwell. ...I would play Harry on Cyril. A big ask for one of them, but Buddy plays more like a HFF than a KPF so they are more ideally suited.

Pies a big chance.

 

[Taco]

Roughy's good to go may be a bit rusty to start with but he will more than handy for us this year. It's interesting to note the comments about talent in this thread time will tell

Time already told three times last year.

 

[WEARECOLLINGWOOD!]

Here is my go:

Maxwell tarrant/keffee toovey
Obrien Reid Goldsack

Thomas Swan. Shaw

Fasolo Cloke. Sidebottom

Blair. Dawes. Paine

Foll: jolly pendels. Ball

Inter: beams wood young Clarke

Missing: didAk johnno brown wellingham.. All should be available by round 3. Brown will play a few weeks in vfl though.

Assuming tarrant doesn't play or beams then keeffe and rounds come in. Wood to play as that second Ruck

 

[doppleganger]

Wood to play as that second Ruck

Wood has had limited match time, why limit him to 2nd ruck duties??

Let him play a month as the first ruck in the VFL, get some miles under his legs, playing 80% of ruck time. He should get his confidence and form up, and then he can potentially come in and play as a ruck option, with Jolly spending more time up forward (Paine the one to make way).

I dont see any value in giving Wood 30 min ruck time in AFL after a limited pre-season.

 

[robertg22]

B: Maxwell Tarrant Toovey
HB: Shaw Reid O'Brien
C: Clarke Swan Thomas
HF: Sidebottom Cloke Fasolo
F: Paine Dawes Blair
R: Jolly Ball Pendlebury
I: Yagmoor Rounds Goldsack Young
E: Sinclair Keeffe Seedsman

If Tarrant doesn't get up then Keeffe comes in, if Maxwell doesn't get up one of Sinclair or Seedsman comes in and Young plays more down back. Would probably use Rounds as the sub.

I really hope Tarrant gets up!

 

[joefootylover]

First off, I reckon Hawks RIGHT NOW have a seriously weakened spine, missing Baily and Roughead they basically have Hale at FF, Buddy at CHF, McCauly? (3 career games) as first ruck, Bouman? (0 career games) at CHB, and Shoenmakers (35 career games) at FB.

Add Baily and Roughy and Gilham and you have a much more competative spread of talls, but right now you have a second string ruckman as a FF, a debut player at CHB, a Lions reject at first ruck, and a FB yet to play 50 games, there is just no way that adds up to a strong spine in round one.

We have the AA CHF, the AA CHB, and a dual premiership 200 game first ruck. By my count that means we outnumber the Hawks for proven quality talls by 3 (Cloke, Reid and Jolly) to 1 (Buddy).

(lets just assume that Shoenmakers and Dawes and Bouman and Paine kind of cancel each other out)

I don't expect OR WANT Tarrant to play, he has NO pre-season gametime, not NAB, not NAB-Praccy, not VFL-Praccy, NOTHING. If we where playing Port or GWS or someone first up then I wouldn't hesitate, but Buddy has had plenty of miles in the legs and looks fit and in form this pre-season, throwing Taz at him off not match conditioning, after an injury interrupted pre-season, would be folly IMO when we have an injury free, match-fit, reigning AA CHB to play on Buddy, and a ruck size key defender with match-time in Keefe to run around on the IMO much less impressive Hale.

Long story short we are missing ONE KPP, Tarrant (or Nate if you'd rather) and they are missin THREE (Roughy, Baily and Gilham).

We are missing a bunch of second string mids and HFF, but really, our "core" of our starting midfield and the majority of our spine, are intact.

My lineup would be;

Toovey Keeffe O'Brien (vs Gunston Hale and Rioli)
Shaw Reid Maxwell (vs Puopulo Buddy etc)

Thomas Swan Clarke

Fasalo Cloke Sidebottom
Blair Dawes Paine

Jolly Ball Pendles

Goldsack
Yagmoor
Sinclair
(Rounds)

That lineup includes only two debutantes, and they are, in my opinion, the pick of the pre-season. Sinlclair and Rounds have years in the system and will be looking to prove themselves, Keeffe will take Hale and McCauly when they are forward, Paine will look to make the 3rd man up pay a price for leaving thier man.

I would also like to make the point that pre-season form is important, at the level of INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS, the notion that because the Hawks won games in NAB they are in form is totally ridiculous, every footy department is using NAB to develop or match-harden PLAYERS not to win games, as has been mentioned in this thread already, the only time this pre-season we actually ran out with our best uninjured squad, AND played AFL (not NAB) rules, was vs the Saints at Visy, and we played COMPLETELY DIFFERENTLY to any of the NAB cup games, I was there, take my word for it.

Hawks may get over the top of us in round one because it may be that our many lesser lights missing outweigh their major ones (i.e perhaps missing Beams, Wellers, Didak, Johnson and Krakouer outweighs their missing Roughead, Baily and Gilham) but I am not so sure.

I think that because the Hawks came very close last time, and because they are "flying" this pre-season, a lot of punters think we will get smashed, but IF they got so close last time because Jolly, Reid, and plenty of others, where actually playing injured and NQR, and IF it turns out that enough of our players have had good pre-seasons INDIVIDUALLY, then it may turn out that the Hawks long term deficiencies in terms of KPD and thier short term weaknesses in terms of Rucks and KPF means we win.

be an interesting game to watch, is it on free to air?

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

I have not missed a game against the Hawks in 6 years. However, I have the fortune/misfortune of having to go to a concert at The Corner Hotel Richmond on Friday and cannot go to the game. I could have till 9 - 10.30pm before the main act and am going in early to watch the game in a pub. Anyone know the best pub (including The Corner) to watch the game but be close enough to respond to a mobile call when the concert begins? Most grateful for any information.

 

[doppleganger]

I have not missed a game against the Hawks in 6 years. However, I have the fortune/misfortune of having to go to a concert at The Corner Hotel Richmond on Friday and cannot go to the game. I could have till 9 - 10.30pm before the main act and am going in early to watch the game in a pub. Anyone know the best pub (including The Corner) to watch the game but be close enough to respond to a mobile call when the concert begins? Most grateful for any information.

Plenty of pubs on Swan St will have the game showing.

Vaucluse (SP?) the pick of the bunch if you just want to watch the footy IMO.

Other pubs will have too many after work drinkers floating around.

 

[SpongePie]

Anyone thing Rounds might get the job on Hodge or Mitchell? I remember Rounds doing great tagging job on Boomer last year in one of the few games he played. He shut Boomer out of the game for a lot of it. He looked alright in the NAB cup as well.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

First off, I reckon Hawks RIGHT NOW....

I understand your logic, believe me I do, but your logic doesn't take what happens on the day into account.

If Tarrant doesn't play, this is how I see it going down.

Reid plays on Franklin, cops 6-8 goals.

Keefe plays on Hale, Hale kicks 4.

Shoenmakers plays on Cloke and just happens to play the game of his life and keeps Cloke to 1 or 2.

The young debutant, inspired by the rest of his team, beats Dawes in his first game and keeps him goalless.

Knowing our luck, this is most likely how it will play out if Tarrant doesn't play. He's THAT crucial to our chances.

 

[SpongePie]

Reid plays on Franklin, cops 6-8 goals.

Why do you think Reid will get smacked so hard by Buddy?

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Plenty of pubs on Swan St will have the game showing.

Vaucluse (SP?) the pick of the bunch if you just want to watch the footy IMO.

Other pubs will have too many after work drinkers floating around.

Thanks Mr Doppleganger.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Why do you think Reid will get smacked so hard by Buddy?

Because I don't feel Reid is quick, agile or smart enough to play on Buddy.

He's fine for 99% of the forwards in the AFL (hence why he was AA CHB) but Buddy is his kryptonite. I feel comfortable with Reid playing on ANYONE except Franklin.

Hope he can prove me wrong if Tarrant doesn't get up. Even the great Full backs and CHBs of past era's had forwards they struggled with. Franklin will always be Ben's nemesis throughout their careers. That's just my feeling on it.

 

[TradeDraft]

Because I don't feel Reid is quick, agile or smart enough to play on Buddy.

He's fine for 99% of the forwards in the AFL (hence why he was AA CHB) but Buddy is his kryptonite. I feel comfortable with Reid playing on ANYONE except Franklin.

Hope he can prove me wrong if Tarrant doesn't get up. Even the great Full backs and CHBs of past era's had forwards they struggled with. Franklin will always be Ben's nemesis throughout their careers. That's just my feeling on it.

'

No One is Mate

 

[joefootylover]

I understand your logic, believe me I do, but your logic doesn't take what happens on the day into account.

If Tarrant doesn't play, this is how I see it going down.

Reid plays on Franklin, cops 6-8 goals.

Keefe plays on Hale, Hale kicks 4.

Shoenmakers plays on Cloke and just happens to play the game of his life and keeps Cloke to 1 or 2.

The young debutant, inspired by the rest of his team, beats Dawes in his first game and keeps him goalless.

Knowing our luck, this is most likely how it will play out if Tarrant doesn't play. He's THAT crucial to our chances.

Man, I put a fair amount of effort into my posts, I try and think about the teams, structure, form od individual players, etc, etc, and the only direct response I get here is Edie Murphy taking the piss!?

bah, Taz is 31 years old, if we are relying on him to avoid a 10 goal belting from an under-manned Hawks we can kiss our season goodbye right now. Ridiculous assessment, Shpesh, ridiculous.

 

[Primetime Pricey]

Hawks will go in faves, ive pretty much felt the past month that we wont win this game but will wait til Thursday's team announcements.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Man, I put a fair amount of effort into my posts, I try and think about the teams, structure, form od individual players, etc, etc, and the only direct response I get here is Edie Murphy taking the piss!?

bah, Taz is 31 years old, if we are relying on him to avoid a 10 goal belting from an under-manned Hawks we can kiss our season goodbye right now. Ridiculous assessment, Shpesh, ridiculous.

As I said, knowing our luck.

I've just seen shit like that happen so many times over the years.

Look at Melbourne for example. In 2010, our premiership year, we beat them by 1 point and drew with them despite them being nowhere NEAR our level.

Why? Because for some reason, the ENTIRE Melbourne football club playing list becomes brownlow medal standard when they see black and white jumpers. Luckily that didn't happen last year, but it's similar to us and Sydney.

We just seem to have weird crap like that happen for no logical reason. Which is why I suggested your logical post (and it was) didn't take the illogical into account, which happens to us enough. Those intangibles you can't plan for.

I'm aware relying on a 31 year old Chris Tarrant is not a healthy situation to be in, but that's the situation we ARE in right now. We need to figure out a succession plan, or work out a gameplan specifically tailored for Hawthorn that softens the Buddy blow.

Personally, I think Goldsack should be the number 2 option in Taz's absence.

He has the height and speed to go with Franklin, and outside Tarrant, is actually our best performed backman on him. Played on him for a full game in 2007 and kept him to 4 goals in a game we only lost by 8 points. Goldsack is now older, wiser, stronger and would be better equipped to handle Franklin I feel. Could be very wrong of course, but Brown and Reid have already shown they aren't up to it, and we haven't seen Goldy have another crack at him since then.

We need to work something out because personally, Franklin is the only thing I think standing in our way to winning more premierships.

 

[lgarth80]

On watching the Prelim again yesterday just to get in the mood for this week, I noticed a few things:

1) Our team going forward could not have performed more inefficiently than it did that night. Not a criticism of the twin towers, who did very well; more a statement that on about 4-5 occasions, players ran into the ball up forward or in a 2 on 1 situation, and didn't ice the goal as one might expect. So often in the commentary I heard "and Collingwood waste another forward foray". This rarely happened all season, and will be tweaked for Round 1.

2) Our centre clearances were very good all night. We have a very good clearance team, and I expect this to continue, particularly if Jolly takes first ruck. Hawthorn will need to be at their best.

3) Tarrant is crucial to our success. He was able to neutralise Franklin in the air, conceding only one mark all game. No other Collingwood player could go close to this.

4) Our team will be markedly different to the Prelim team, where the Hawks will be pretty similar. This puts us at a disadvantage for sure, with midfield depth a concern. Wellingham is a big loss, more from rotations, meaning players like Swan/Pendlebury will need to do better for longer. Thankfully they are fresh, but they will feel this match big time.

5) In order to win, we need a big game from Jolly, midfield ascendancy, then poise when we use the ball on the run forward of centre. We need to be prepared to use the corridor, and to put on a manic press against Hawthorn's chip and charge. The hurt will come the other way no doubt, and it will take the Pies' disciplined defence to come out of the game with less than 75 on the Hawks' scoreboard.

I predict a scoreline somewhere in the 13 goals to 10 range. Will be interesting to see which Collingwood team arrives.

 

[Scodog10]

I understand your logic, believe me I do, but your logic doesn't take what happens on the day into account.

If Tarrant doesn't play, this is how I see it going down.

Reid plays on Franklin, cops 6-8 goals.

Keefe plays on Hale, Hale kicks 4.

Shoenmakers plays on Cloke and just happens to play the game of his life and keeps Cloke to 1 or 2.

The young debutant, inspired by the rest of his team, beats Dawes in his first game and keeps him goalless.

Knowing our luck, this is most likely how it will play out if Tarrant doesn't play. He's THAT crucial to our chances.

First up if Hale and Buddy kick 12 between them while at the same time Cloke and Dawes are held to two or less we're going to get done by 100 plus points.

Secondly what you explained above is complete and utter mental fragility. Outside of those Melbourne matches I can't name one game dating back to 09 where we've appeared as mentally weak as you described! Also those matches had more to do with Bailey's motivational techniques than us.

The only other matches that come close are the R24 match last year which was an aboration because the players were cruising and the other was the second half of the 2010 GF. I won't hold that against them because many men crumble under the pressure of GF's....

Thirdly for every game you name where a team has pulled something from nowhere I could name you one where we've done the same to more fancied opposition. The only difference is we've been up for so long that it's hard to remember those ones.