Player Watch Reef McInnes
- Thread starter jsdsgn
- Start date
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Probably, would be pretty fitting if we bugger up this part of the offseason too.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
I imagine we'd also be a pretty easy club to pry 9 from in this draft.
KnowsBeers
Rookie
- Dec 5, 2020
- 28
- 24
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Banned
- #879
We have to land Reef
Jen2310
Premium Platinum
Yeah, Surely Crows would do a deal.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
It certainly reads like that, especially as if you read our 4th pick (once pick 23) description it pretty much says Kolar or traded. Especially as I can't imagine us going that hard for your 2021 picks either seeing we need to take five players in this draft and I can't imagine us being too keen to use pick 80.
Could easily do 9 + 23 for 14 + 16 and clean that up with steak knives to balance it out, especially if you were confident Reef would get into the mid-to-late-teens or early-twenties for the next bid.
TradeDraft
Post-Human
We don't HAVE to but be the Smart Thing
Gone Critical
Moderator
- Moderator
- #883
Not at all. They are picks 40+ in the draft who got no VFL experience to press their claims. The fact that one of the group, Ruscoe, got games was above expectation. Hopefully at least one of the 3 can become best 22 in 2021 but their chances in 2020 were scuppered and kids at that level generally play little if any senior footy in their 1st season even if everything runs their way
Gone Critical
Moderator
- Moderator
- #884
Geez we traded out A grade talent, our best junior and a solid best 22. That’s not dead wood. Some kids will get a chance now as spots are there but these are not top rated youngsters. Hopefully a few will make it but, excluding Quaynor(maybe Kelly too), I don’t think we have the next Treloar and Stephenson amongst the players you mention. Hopefully 2-3 Phillips amongst them.
I shouldn’t have said traded. I was referring to the six or seven other players we delisted. Wills was the only one who provided anything approaching what you’d call depth in 2020.
Replace them with kids who can can compete for a senior spot and you have more chance of upside.
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odoyle_rules
Team Captain
IF Crows do bid at 9 - what will it cost us to match?
From my rough calculations, I get the following:
Crows P9(1,469) - 25% = 1,102
Pies P16(1,067) + P18(985) = 2,052
That leaves 950 = Pick 19.
Therefore Reef will cost us 16 and downgrade of 18 to 19. If we rate him, it's a no brainer given most experts rate the backend of the first round evenly
If we were to trade 14 & 16 to Crows today for 9 and 21 most would do it. Matching the bid puts us in a better position
From my rough calculations, I get the following:
Crows P9(1,469) - 25% = 1,102
Pies P16(1,067) + P18(985) = 2,052
That leaves 950 = Pick 19.
Therefore Reef will cost us 16 and downgrade of 18 to 19. If we rate him, it's a no brainer given most experts rate the backend of the first round evenly
If we were to trade 14 & 16 to Crows today for 9 and 21 most would do it. Matching the bid puts us in a better position
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Jen2310
Premium Platinum
Also that pick 9 would be downgraded to pick 11 with other NGA bids going by Cal's phantom draft.
So pick 11 = 1329 - 25% = 996 points.
odoyle_rules
Team Captain
In that case we don't downgrade our Pick 18. So effectively it's an upgrade of Pick 16 to Pick 11. Surely we match
TradeDraft
Post-Human
Jen2310
Premium Platinum
Thats right, after the first 6-7 players, its pretty even.
Jen2310
Premium Platinum
sr36
TheBrownDog
But if we rate enough who are left higher and we are confident that one of them will get to pick 16, it's also a no brainer - and we pass.
Knightmare doesnt believe Reef will get a bid inside #20 which is where Pies take Pedlar
JUH , Campbell, Jones bids would mean the pies 1st pick is #17 and a bid after #11 would mean that #17 is the breakeven to match that bid
#12 =1268
-20%
-----------
1015 points required to match
#17 = 1025 points
Bid at pick 9 would take away #17 and push #19 back to #24 which could end up #26 if Gulden and Downie gets bids
that would be a disaster.
So looking like if no pick trades then a bid after #12 gets matched but prior maybe not
JUH , Campbell, Jones bids would mean the pies 1st pick is #17 and a bid after #11 would mean that #17 is the breakeven to match that bid
#12 =1268
-20%
-----------
1015 points required to match
#17 = 1025 points
Bid at pick 9 would take away #17 and push #19 back to #24 which could end up #26 if Gulden and Downie gets bids
that would be a disaster.
So looking like if no pick trades then a bid after #12 gets matched but prior maybe not
Jen2310
Premium Platinum
A bid outside the top 20 would be very good. Fingers crossed.
Or at least 12-16 would be the minmum.
Its just as much about ensuring 3 top 15 type quality picks imo, by getting ahead of a bid, and then exploiting the discount, when the bid comes. Adelaide's 9 & 23 helps us get a top 10/12 & then Reef, but its the 2021 first rounder that helps us get three top kids in, including Reef... whilst a first next year is wasted with Nicky D. Fascinating stuff, but we need to land a Cox type, then a Perkins / Macrae / Cook / Laurie type mid... then Reef... then hopefully a strong forward slider later on
Thanks TD, I know you are just posting it but I'm not keen on seeing the attachment to Adelaide, the kids versatility and speed is such a need right now and a big body in the middle with pace. Maybe the Club knew what they were doing in getting rid of AT.
I have a feeling this wont happen and appreciate Cal can stick his head where the Sun shines not.
This, sounds reasonable to me.
- Jul 21, 2008
- 26,645
- 33,689
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
We definitely have to land Reef after spending the best part of a year talking him up as though single-handedly he will drag our club back to the head of the competition. I can't recall a played being hyped so much for so long - except Nick Daicos for next year.
Jen2310
Premium Platinum
heh I wonder if thats my fault. I started talking about him the moment I saw him at training 12 months ago.
But the media does talk him up too. Probably because its collingwood.
Doesn't help he is a big bodied teenager who is versatile like not many, and not even 18 yet.
