Richmond are in the box seat to make top 4

[holybishop]

Sydney's loss opens the top 4 right up, with Richmond the favourite to take 4th spot imo. After Sydney's loss they'll be going into their games against Geelong in Geelong and Hawthorn at ANZ as underdogs. Richmond though should win their last 3 games against Carlton, Giants and Essendon. Win all 3, and Sydney lose both their clutch games, and the Tigers are in. Collingwood are also a chance too if they can beat the Hawks next week, but if Richmond get the likely % booster against the Giants they should remain above the Pies.

 

[Mogwai]

If we performed as we did in the second half against Brisbane, I don't think we'll be up there in the giddy heights of top 4. Even though the 6 quarters prior were absolutely phenomenal.

Just like last year how we aspired to be Top 8, this year, Top 4 looks to be our promised land.Richmond cliche as it is, next year is probably the year to gun for the double chance.

 

[SuperSub17]

Chance of Richmond beating Carlton = 65%

Chance of Richmond beating GWS = 99%

Chance of Richmond beating Essendon = 60%

Chance of Geelong beating Sydney = 65%

Chance of Hawthorn beating Sydney = 55 %

0.65*0.99*0.60*0.65*0.55 = 0.138

13.8% chance, yep sure, box seat.

 

[THECHIEFTON]

Gee it's not completely out of reach. I did ROLF a little when I read the thread title but imagine if it did happen....

 

[NUFC Tiger]

Would love that OP but I think most of my brethren and I are just happy to be amongst it again! Anything more from now on is a bonus IMO

 

[Groupie_]

Sydney will win one of Geelong/Hawthorn

Best we can get is 5th

 

[ep2018]

Sydney won't lose 4th but the only team I think who can overtake them is Essendon.

 

[WWSD]

Sydney's loss opens the top 4 right up, with Richmond the favourite to take 4th spot imo. After Sydney's loss they'll be going into their games against Geelong in Geelong and Hawthorn at ANZ as underdogs. Richmond though should win their last 3 games against Carlton, Giants and Essendon. Win all 3, and Sydney lose both their clutch games, and the Tigers are in. Collingwood are also a chance too if they can beat the Hawks next week, but if Richmond get the likely % booster against the Giants they should remain above the Pies.

and play Hawthorn in week 1 of the finals? There goes any hope of the Hawks winning this years flag.

 

[Hipster Doofus]

Would absolutely laugh if we made top 4, we've had a fun year alright but it just doesn't seem right if we made top 4 at this stage haha

Just happy to be in there for once

 

[BC9_]

A home final is what I'm after

 

[PumpyChowdown]

Fifthmond.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Yeah.....Nah. Your banking on a premiership contender to horribly lose form 2-3 weeks out from Finals.

 

[DardySingh360]

Yeah.....Nah. Your banking on a premiership contender to horribly lose form 2-3 weeks out from Finals.

Wouldn't say losing to arguably the best two teams in the comp is a horrible loss of form

 

[Ancient Tiger]

Chance of Richmond beating Carlton = 65%

Chance of Richmond beating GWS = 99%

Chance of Richmond beating Essendon = 60%

Chance of Geelong beating Sydney = 65%

Chance of Hawthorn beating Sydney = 55 %

0.65*0.99*0.60*0.65*0.55 = 0.138

13.8% chance, yep sure, box seat.

This is flawed maths.
You must average the percentages, not multiply them!
0.65+ 0.99 + 0.60 + 0.65 + 0.55 /5 = 0.688

68.8% chance!

 

[Bardo State]

This is flawed maths.
You must average the percentages, not multiply them!
0.65+ 0.99 + 0.60 + 0.65 + 0.55 /5 = 0.688

68.8% chance!

Or maybe we could just add them?

0.65+0.99+0.60+0.65+0.55= 3.44, so a 344% chance.

3440% if you add a 0, as adding a 0 makes no difference to the total chance.

 

[Ancient Tiger]

Umm maybe you should have a rethink about how that actually works... Richmond are most definately not more than a 20% chance to make top 4. I sure hope you don't punt for a living!

I'm only going on the figures quoted! They are not mine!
Work out Collingwoods chances or even Swans chances the same way and the are low!

 

[smasha]

Pies are playing out of their skins because they know the big one are right behind them!

Otherwise they wouldn't be playing nowhere near as good as they are.

The POWER OF THE TIGER!!!!!

 

[Andrew Mc]

This is flawed maths.
You must average the percentages, not multiply them!
0.65+ 0.99 + 0.60 + 0.65 + 0.55 /5 = 0.688

68.8% chance!

I surely hope you're taking the piss.

 

[Bardo State]

I'm only going on the figures quoted! They are not mine!
Work out Collingwoods chances or even Swans chances the same way and the are low!

I hope your work has nothing to do with the ATO

 

[SuperSub17]

This is flawed maths.
You must average the percentages, not multiply them!
0.65+ 0.99 + 0.60 + 0.65 + 0.55 /5 = 0.688

68.8% chance!

.......

If a side plays two games, and has a 50% chance in each game, there is 25% chance they win both, 25% they sin neither, 50% 1-1.

Richmond needs five results to go their way here - including two completely out of their control. Collingwood relies on a similar equation. The top four will most likely be the current top four.

 

[Fadge]

This is flawed maths.
You must average the percentages, not multiply them!
0.65+ 0.99 + 0.60 + 0.65 + 0.55 /5 = 0.688

68.8% chance!

Flawed genius.

 

[caterina]

This is flawed maths.
You must average the percentages, not multiply them!
0.65+ 0.99 + 0.60 + 0.65 + 0.55 /5 = 0.688

68.8% chance!

If your logic was correct, the probability of tossing a coin 1000 times and getting 1000 heads would be 50%

 

[The Speaker]

This is flawed maths.
You must average the percentages, not multiply them!
0.65+ 0.99 + 0.60 + 0.65 + 0.55 /5 = 0.688

68.8% chance!

wat

 

[northeast tiger]

Very small chance of top four. In the box seat for 5th maybe, which would probs be a home final against Port. If Bombers can grab 5th then a Collingwood v Richmond elimination final looms and it'll be bye bye tigers

Powerball numbers Thursday night please.

Mathematically possible for Richmond to finish top 4 but highly unlikely.

 

[THECHIEFTON]

Powerball numbers Thursday night please.

Mathematically possible for Richmond to finish top 4 but highly unlikely.

Normally its " Mathematically Richmond are still a chance to play finals" and we finish 9th. We might make it to 5th if we are lucky.