Richmond are in the box seat to make top 4

[Badesumofu]

Well are they truly independent?
I don't think they are. Teams performances can vary with psychology. Just like kicking goals. Cloke can probably kick 20 in a row at training. Put him in front of a crowd and.......
If another team wins or loses it can affect the psyche of a team playing another game. True independence does not exist!

Yeah, to an extent. I mean, the probability that Hawthorn beat Sydney in a few weeks might be roughly 0.6. But then you'd also say that the probability that Hawthorn beat Sydney, given that Sydney lost the previous week to Geelong - well that might well be 0.7. Now, given that Richmond can't make the top 4 anymore if Geelong don't beat Sydney, then it's really the probability of Sydney losing to Hawthorn given they lost to Geelong the previous week to work out their chances of making the top 4. We should also apply this thinking to Richmond's games - they are more likely to beat Essendon if they also beat Carlton next week than if you consider the probability independently of next week's match.

If you'd like to use Bayes theorem to adjust the probabilities given by the earlier poster to update the probability, be my guest.

 

[Ancient Tiger]

Yeah, to an extent. I mean, the probability that Hawthorn beat Sydney in a few weeks might be roughly 0.6. But then you'd also say that the probability that Hawthorn beat Sydney, given that Sydney lost the previous week to Geelong - well that might well be 0.7. Now, given that Richmond can't make the top 4 anymore if Geelong don't beat Sydney, then it's really the probability of Sydney losing to Hawthorn given they lost to Geelong the previous week to work out their chances of making the top 4. We should also apply this thinking to Richmond's games - they are more likely to beat Essendon if they also beat Carlton next week than if you consider the probability independently of next week's match.

If you'd like to use Bayes theorem to adjust the probabilities given by the earlier poster to update the probability, be my guest.

Couldn't have put it better myself!
And no, I wont do the silly calculations as I'm having too much fun creating chaos on these boards!

 

[mattis117]

This is flawed maths.
You must average the percentages, not multiply them!
0.65+ 0.99 + 0.60 + 0.65 + 0.55 /5 = 0.688

68.8% chance!

Hahahhaha wow this is wrong on so many levels.
I really hope u were taking the piss...

 

[ibra]

Don't care. It's either out in straight sets or 1 and done for Tigger.

Problem?

 

[Ancient Tiger]

Hahahhaha wow this is wrong on so many levels.
I really hope u were taking the piss...

Look at the post 5 above this!

 

[GutsyBug]

Pies are playing out of their skins because they know the big one are right behind them!

Otherwise they wouldn't be playing nowhere near as good as they are.

The POWER OF THE TIGER!!!!!

 

[mattis117]

I was just pulling that guys chain and everyone took the bait!!!!!!

Ok, phew

 

[mattis117]

Look at the post 5 above this!

Using tapatalk should have read to the end.

 

[Top_4_Tiger]

Maybe 5th is our new 9th

 

[akneal]

They could... but they certainly aren't a top 4 side. sixth best side at best in my view

 

[Topper Harley]

Chances of incorrect maths calculations in this thread - 67.1%
Chance of Richmond making the top 4 - 34.4%
Chance of me getting laid tonight - 82.69%

As a result Australia are a 37.32% chance of winning the fourth test.

 

[Westicle]

I am 92% likely to go to sleep in the next 10 minutes.

Good night BF!

 

[Royce Hafey]

Maybe 5th is our new 9th

And next year 1st will be our new 0th (mathematical projection).

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Can't see it. Hawthorn to Def: Collingwood and North
Def by: Sydney

Geelong Def: West Coast, Sydney, Brisbane

Sydney Def: St.kilda, Hawthorn
Def by: Geelong

Freo Def: Melbourne, Port and St.kilda.

Hawthorn
Geelong
Freo
Sydney
Richmond
Collingwood
Essendon
Port

That's how I have it anyway... 5th for the tiges would be Huuuge..

 

[Tigerman20]

I you wanna be so precise maybe you should factor into the calculations

Sydney losing to St Kilda??

 

[Top_4_Tiger]

They could... but they certainly aren't a top 4 side. sixth best side at best in my view

That's like saying the Hawks weren't a premiership side in 08, more like a prelim side.

If you're in the top 4 you're top 4, it's a long season and you don't finish top 4 because of a few flukey wins... Don't think we'll make it though, probably miss by 6 points.

 

[akneal]

That's like saying the Hawks weren't a premiership side in 08, more like a prelim side.

If you're in the top 4 you're top 4, it's a long season and you don't finish top 4 because of a few flukey wins... Don't think we'll make it though, probably miss by 6 points.

I don't think you will be in there because of 'a few flukey wins' I think it'd be due to a rather soft draw compared to the teams around you. All the teams around you in Sydney, Collingwood and Essendon beat you by 47, 34 and 29..

 

[Andrew Mc]

I was just pulling that guys chain and everyone took the bait!!!!!!

Not everyone...

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Dunno about box seat but I wouldnt write off a top four spot until its a mathematical impossibility. Swans arent exactly flying at the moment so losing two of the next three against the top two sides is a possibility. If either Coll or Richmond jag three out of three (and out of those sides Richmond has the far better run home) then top four might be up for grabs at the eleventh hour.


Go Saints!!

 

[UpTheGuts]

So basically if Hawthorn beats Sydney in Round 23, we make the Grand Final.
Cool!

 

[Top_4_Tiger]

I don't think you will be in there because of 'a few flukey wins' I think it'd be due to a rather soft draw compared to the teams around you. All the teams around you in Sydney, Collingwood and Essendon beat you by 47, 34 and 29..

We play Freo and Essendon twice and melbourne/GWS once so we weren't given a bunch of free wins above and beyond what anyone else would receive.

We also beat Freo and Hawthorn so our record against top teams is close to 50/50, or a bit below 50/50.

I'd say we're exactly where we deserve to be and you can't take anything away from it.

 

[Arwib]

Unfortunately for Richmond Sydney win Clutch Games. Last night could be costly but it will not be to Richmond's advantage. Bookmark it. Richmond are not a top 4 side Sydney are and the proof will be in the pudding when Sydney beat Hawthorn or Geelong or both.

Settle down mate

 

[BLPC08]

Chance of Richmond beating Carlton = 65%

Chance of Richmond beating GWS = 99%

Chance of Richmond beating Essendon = 60%

Chance of Geelong beating Sydney = 65%

Chance of Hawthorn beating Sydney = 55 %

0.65*0.99*0.60*0.65*0.55 = 0.138

13.8% chance, yep sure, box seat.

I'd have to disagree with your percentages. Carlton are completely shot, that's a 95% chance IMO. The Essendon game will come down to the penalties handed down, if they're told they wont be allowed to play finals it becomes a 99%. With our current form, we are barely a 35% chance of beating Sydney at ANZ.

Having said that, I don't think Richmond will make it.

 

[SuperSub17]

I'd have to disagree with your percentages. Carlton are completely shot, that's a 95% chance IMO. The Essendon game will come down to the penalties handed down, if they're told they wont be allowed to play finals it becomes a 99%. With our current form, we are barely a 35% chance of beating Sydney at ANZ.

Having said that, I don't think Richmond will make it.

Yeah that's the thing, the end result will still be the same if you increase one game and decrease another. So either way Richmond will struggle - they need Hawthorn to win that game.

But you can't tell me the bookies would offer odds of $21 for Carlton to win next week? On their day they are capable of matching it with most teams. Add to that Richmond's inconsistency and you've got a game that Richmond should win, but are far from certainties to do so.

 

[tigs2010]

Call me cynical but I think Sydney lose to Geelong and Hawthorn on the Friday night.
We beat Carlton and GWS then play Essendon for top 4 spot and play like shit.