i dont think it will happen either, but didnt this exact scenario play out for sydney in the last 4 rounds '12?
Richmond are in the box seat to make top 4
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i dont think it will happen either, but didnt this exact scenario play out for sydney in the last 4 rounds '12?
Collingwood have the same chance of making the 4 as the Tigers do, which is quite low. After Sydney's loss last night, it looks like Essendon are the contender with Sydney for 4th. But, the Bombers are playing crap right now so the 4 will finish with the teams in it right now
Well, it is, in the sense that if you flip a coin five times and you have five heads, the probability of another head is still 50%. a coin doesn't have a memory. Have a look at frequentist probabilities.
We are far from the "box seat". Box seat usually implies you are in the best position. Top four is only a vague possibility. As you mention in your post we have to win all the games and hope that Sydney lose to Geelong and Hawthorn (which they are a fair chance to pinch one). Too many planets need to align for Richmond to finish top four. Sydney is clearly the club in the "box seat". Also you forgot to mention Essendon. We will be relying on Essendon to lose games or have their points stripped.
My personal hope is to just get a home final and hopefully play Port at the MCG.
Please explain!
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Summed it up perfectly. All those things are a solid chance of happening, but it's unlikely all 5 results will go our way. Not impossible, but unlikely.
kaiserchief13
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Don't let facts get in the way of a good story
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If Richmond make the top 4, they play Hawthorn.
If Richmond beat Hawthorn, they'll play Fremantle at the MCG in the prelim.
If Richmond beat Fremantle, they'll play Hawthorn again.
If Richmond beat Hawthorn again.
They are premiers.
And Bigfooty will lose 95% of their audience from October to January.
Gotta love that word 'if'. haha
If Richmond beat Hawthorn, they'll play Fremantle at the MCG in the prelim.
If Richmond beat Fremantle, they'll play Hawthorn again.
If Richmond beat Hawthorn again.
They are premiers.
And Bigfooty will lose 95% of their audience from October to January.
Gotta love that word 'if'. haha
Brain Power
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He probably works at the Federal Treasury, considering the state of our recent budgets.
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Richmond making top 4 depends on the results of other games so I think it's highly unlikely it will happen. I'll never say never but I'm 99% certain at this point the top 4 will be (in no particular order) Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, & Freo. I think 5th is a chance but given how Collingwood have found some form that might be in jeopardy too.
Not this year, maybe next.
After the fifth head, yes, the odds of the next flip is 50%. But at the start it's <2%
So here we have five undetermined results ahead.
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If that did take place and we did finish 4th and go on to a Prelim we would play Freo at Subi
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
I wouldn't call it box seat at all, after all box seat would be you WILL finish top four if you win all your games, whereas Richmond need to win all three and then still have other results go their way to make top four. It's not out of the question as Sydney could indeed lose their last two, but I suspect they will win one of them and so Richmond won't make top four.
What's more interesting is that though we know that the top four is highly likely to be Hawthorn, Geelong, Freo and Sydney, it's still incredibly open as to what order they will finish in. And given how well Freo play at home, if they were to get a home final, the finishing order becomes very crucial.
Makes for an exciting last three weeks to the season.
What's more interesting is that though we know that the top four is highly likely to be Hawthorn, Geelong, Freo and Sydney, it's still incredibly open as to what order they will finish in. And given how well Freo play at home, if they were to get a home final, the finishing order becomes very crucial.
Makes for an exciting last three weeks to the season.
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While Richmond will probably win all of their remaining games. Remember it was just 1 game last night, Sydney are still just as big as anyone for the flag. Odds are Sydney will win at least 1 of those two big games and get that Top 4 spot. Hell if they win both, which is certainly not impossible, they'll finish Top 2. They're not ready to fall out of the Top 4 just yet...
They won't finish 4th, 5th at best IMO.
Keep writing the swans off guys.
Keep writing the swans off guys.
didn't watch last nights match, I gather?
Top 4 is highly unlikely, but there is that outside chance. Far from the most ridiculous or impossible scenario.
However even if Sydney win against either Cats/Hawks, if Richmond can keep winning they will likely finish 5th and draw Port in Melbourne for their first final.
Not overly confident in either of these scenarios, but they are quite possible and would be a dream return to the finals for the Tigs.
However even if Sydney win against either Cats/Hawks, if Richmond can keep winning they will likely finish 5th and draw Port in Melbourne for their first final.
Not overly confident in either of these scenarios, but they are quite possible and would be a dream return to the finals for the Tigs.
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