AFL Autopsy RND 13: Done By The Blues

[joey_jo_jo]

I really dont take much heed to expected score, according to that metric we lost most of our games this year.

Everytime a goal is kicked instead of missed the whole dynamic of the game would change because the ball goes back to the centre instead of a kick in, Carlton always seemed to answer our goals with a good centre clearance whereas from kick ins we got repeat entries due to our our press, so hard to know how inside 50s would look if we kick more accurately initially.

At end of the day it was a good lesson in where we are at, the intent was there all game but we lack some of the high end talent that contenders have (especially in forward line).
I dont think its something to be down on, Carlton are head of us in their team development and Voss is a decent coach, whilst Scott made some good moves to quell cripps/walsh/Curnow/McKay I think Voss slightly shaded him by taking away some of our main weapons in Intercept possessions and uncontested marks, it meant a lot of our kicking going into 50 was rushed so the lack of a contested marking tall was really magnified.

 

[faible]

I really dont take much heed to expected score, according to that metric we lost most of our games this year.

Everytime a goal is kicked instead of missed the whole dynamic of the game would change because the ball goes back to the centre instead of a kick in, Carlton always seemed to answer our goals with a good centre clearance whereas from kick ins we got repeat entries due to our our press, so hard to know how inside 50s would look if we kick more accurately initially.

At end of the day it was a good lesson in where we are at, the intent was there all game but we lack some of the high end talent that contenders have (especially in forward line).
I dont think its something to be down on, Carlton are head of us in their team development and Voss is a decent coach, whilst Scott made some good moves to quell cripps/walsh/Curnow/McKay I think Voss slightly shaded him by taking away some of our main weapons in Intercept possessions and uncontested marks, it meant a lot of our kicking going into 50 was rushed so the lack of a contested marking tall was really magnified.

Yes, it's probably a good indication that sitting 2nd on the ladder was more a reflection on the sides around us falling over than it was us genuinely being the 2nd best side in it.

You don't win (or lose) based on xScore, but it's a good data point for understanding whether we were wastefully inaccurate (we were) or whether Carlton were overly accurate / got much better looks (they were, and they did).

Kick a few of those early missed options, we have scoreboard pressure, our players are up and about, their players are fighting to stay in the game.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

Yes, it's probably a good indication that sitting 2nd on the ladder was more a reflection on the sides around us falling over than it was us genuinely being the 2nd best side in it.

You don't win (or lose) based on xScore, but it's a good data point for understanding whether we were wastefully inaccurate (we were) or whether Carlton were overly accurate / got much better looks (they were, and they did).

Kick a few of those early missed options, we have scoreboard pressure, our players are up and about, their players are fighting to stay in the game.

Yeah fair, my gripe is probably more with the journos who interpret the metric rather than the metric itself.

 

[faible]

Yeah fair, my gripe is probably more with the journos who interpret the metric rather than the metric itself.

Understandable, journos typically fail to interpret most statistics properly

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I really dont take much heed to expected score, according to that metric we lost most of our games this year.

Everytime a goal is kicked instead of missed the whole dynamic of the game would change because the ball goes back to the centre instead of a kick in, Carlton always seemed to answer our goals with a good centre clearance whereas from kick ins we got repeat entries due to our our press, so hard to know how inside 50s would look if we kick more accurately initially.

At end of the day it was a good lesson in where we are at, the intent was there all game but we lack some of the high end talent that contenders have (especially in forward line).
I dont think its something to be down on, Carlton are head of us in their team development and Voss is a decent coach, whilst Scott made some good moves to quell cripps/walsh/Curnow/McKay I think Voss slightly shaded him by taking away some of our main weapons in Intercept possessions and uncontested marks, it meant a lot of our kicking going into 50 was rushed so the lack of a contested marking tall was really magnified.

Yeah, take it for what it is. That’s an enormous variance in real score vs x score which just underlines where our issues were. We just couldn’t put it on the board.

 

[windyhill]

carl started prepping for us on Thursday night, we played on Sunday. flew back into Melbourne on Monday. Huge advantage .

 

[BomberFan355]

The first two misses set the tone.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

The first to misses set the tone.

agreed.

Perkins and Menzie missing absolute sitters set shots in the first 5 mins really was a kick in the dick.

We just failed at garnering any type of momentum.

Hopefully the bye does us well.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

agreed.

Perkins and Menzie missing absolute sitters set shots in the first 5 mins really was a kick in the dick.

We just failed at garnering any type of momentum.

Hopefully the bye does us well.

Some guys need the break and fingers crossed duursma, hobbs and draper will be ready to go with parish shortly after.
Has there been any update on Setterfield? Couldn't tell live if it was just a knock and they took him off due to the timing (last qtr, we needed fresh legs) or if it was more serious.

 

[faible]

Some guys need the break and fingers crossed duursma, hobbs and draper will be ready to go with parish shortly after.
Has there been any update on Setterfield? Couldn't tell live if it was just a knock and they took him off due to the timing (last qtr, we needed fresh legs) or if it was more serious.

Tuesday is the normal injury report day so hopefully we'll know about Setterfield and El-Hawli this evening

 

[Nifft]

I feel like we're really missing Duursma.

 

[ant555]

Can not be all that bad if we basically ****ed ourselves with poor kicking against a side a lot are saying are a genuine GF chance.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

Can not be all that bad if we basically ****ed ourselves with poor kicking against a side a lot are saying are a genuine GF chance.

I'm eagerly awaiting Fox Sports' power rankings this week.
No doubt it will have them at 2nd for beating us (no issue with that as they've deserved that over last month) but we'll drop out of 8 after doing alot right. Meanwhile they'll probably still have the dogs in top 4 despite being dominated from the first minute against another bottom 8 team.

 

[ydc55]

Can not be all that bad if we basically ****ed ourselves with poor kicking against a side a lot are saying are a genuine GF chance.

Yep.
Our connection between midfield and forward needs recalibration.
Our side generally lacks elite kickers of the footy which was more noticeable without redman.
We are a poor marking side. Cake hooker is our last strong mark.
Goldstein looks tired. Probably played more than expected. Time to give bryan the keys?

 

[ant555]

Yep.
Our connection between midfield and forward needs recalibration.
Our side generally lacks elite kickers of the footy which was more noticeable without redman.
We are a poor marking side. Cake hooker is our last strong mark.
Goldstein looks tired. Probably played more than expected. Time to give bryan the keys?

Just on Goldy I was watching his running Sunday night and he covered a shit load of ground. TDK had his measure athletically in the few battle they had when they where matched up but Goldy was doing a power of running and there where several times he should have been used but was not. I am not sure he is tired after looking at him live.
I would like to see more of Bryan but I have never seen Bryan come close to covering the amount of ground Goldy did on Sunday so I suspect the coach still like the old boy as his work rate is better and still likes Draper as he is more physical.
Poor marking side in front of the footy is a long time chestnut of mine.

 

[ydc55]

Just on Goldy I was watching his running Sunday night and he covered a shit load of ground. TDK had his measure athletically in the few battle they had when they where matched up but Goldy was doing a power of running and there where several times he should have been used but was not. I am not sure he is tired after looking at him live.
I would like to see more of Bryan but I have never seen Bryan come close to covering the amount of ground Goldy did on Sunday so I suspect the coach still like the old boy as his work rate is better and still likes Draper as he is more physical.
Poor marking side in front of the footy is a long time chestnut of mine.

I thought goldy was jumping at the footy much better earlier in the year.
I have no issues with his ground coverage but he allowed tdk to physically dominate him.
I agree with you regardinding marking.
Wright is poor for size.
Stringer and Langford are not strong overhead.
Guelfi is ok for the position he plays.
Jones does not hold his marks.

Around the ground Durham is superb in the air for his size.
Ridley and McKay are very good and that just about sees us out.
Another marking midfielder would be very handy.
Nate caddy will improve us in this area.
Someone like Jarrod berry would be handy too.

 

[yodellinhank]

Can not be all that bad if we basically ****ed ourselves with poor kicking against a side a lot are saying are a genuine GF chance.

They (blues) completely pissed about for a fair bit of it. Not sure we were as close as we thought we were.

 

[Darealrath]

They (blues) completely pissed about for a fair bit of it. Not sure we were as close as we thought we were.

Weird game on reflection. Felt like we very competitive around the ground and had the upper hand for long stretches but they also held up our ball movement very well so we never looked that threatening during these periods, and they were of course far more efficient going forward.

Disappointed to lose but not angry.

Now is a good time to reset and hopefully get a few midfield options back because we've looked too thin there with Parish and Duursma out. Would like to see Hobbs post bye until Parish comes back.