Preview Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM - Team post #483

[Magpie Since 1986]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

They'll almost certainly include someone like Cam Woods. But then the issue is they'll have one less running player against the quickest and hardest running team in the comp. Tricky selection issue. 3 choices for the Pies:

1. Keep Dawes (193cm, 108kg) as their 2nd ruck/KPF
2. Add Cam Woods, and go in with one less running player
3. Drop Dawes, add add Woods and make him play 2nd ruck/forward

This is a complete misunderstanding of the selection situation FYI.

Currently our tall forwards are Cloke, Paine and Dawes/Jolly

If Cameron Wood comes in then I am 99% sure it will be at the expense of Jackson Paine, so we won't lose another running player and our structure won't change much.

Dawes will stay as the 2nd tall forward and Jolly/Wood will rotate as the 3rd tall forward the same way you guys do with your rucks.

I prefer this setup as Wood will do a lot more ruckwork than Dawes and we will need that extra ruck strength against Carlton's lineup. I don't think we lose much by having a ruck fill Paine's spot.

 

[parrot]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

. prefer this setup as Wood will do a lot more ruckwork than Dawes and we will need that extra ruck strength against Carlton's lineup. I don't think we lose much by having a ruck fill Paine's spot.

Woods' inclusion will cost you 1 running player. You just can't avoid it. Decisions, decisions eh. I think we can both agree that Buckley's Dawes to the 2nd ruck idea was a bit bizarre. I mean the guy is only 193cm and has no leap. He's a bustling KPF and that's it. A one position player. Putting him in the middle with just cause your midfield to get belted, and probably end up injuring Dawes in the process. BTW it's good to see reactionary selections by the Pies. Shows they're worried. Feeling quietly confident about this one, but know we have much bigger challenges ahead.

 

[Azul]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

I think the big question atm is at whose expense?

Warnock for Thornton?

One of the possibilities some were salivating over this preseason was playing Hampson as a permanent forward.

With our defense strengthening with the return of Jamison and Duigan, BT will spend 90% of the time forward. With 1 goal from 2 games, it's time to deliver.

Waite and Hampson as twin targets along with the resting ruck combo of Warnock/Kreuzer could prove a handful. Allowing Walker, Betts and Garlett to run amok.

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Woods' inclusion will cost you 1 running player. You just can't avoid it.

Did you read my post? Wood's inclusion will cost us Jackson Paine. If you consider him a running player then yes it costs us a running player, I'd call Jackson a KPP although he does move better than Wood.

 

[Azul]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Surely the obvious choice, pie fans, for a second ruck is Keeffe? At 204cm he ought to be a better contender than Dawes.

I watched Wood on the VFL telecast this week and, hmmm. I'd be trialling Keeffe as a backup ruck, leaving Dawes at FF and bringing in Maxwell as an extra defender to replace Tarrant.

Oops, I shouldn't be giving the enemy any ideas. But Wood is a spud.

 

[blue gunslinger]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Posts like this shit me.

Bower is currently has the third best DE% in the team, and is in the top handful across the comp for 1%ers, along with Henderson and Laidler. Also has the most disposals and least clangers of that trio.

Stats aside, any impartial observer can see that he is doing his job and doing it well.

Any chance of backing your player in?

Bower is typical of our WA blokes like Ellard Army Yarran Garlett
Blokes that bust their ass on and off the field, that have been professional club men from the get go. Ask not what is it they cannot do but ask yourself what is it they deliver!

 

[HARKER]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Bower is typical of our WA blokes like Ellard Army Yarran Garlett
Blokes that bust their ass on and off the field, that have been professional club men from the get go. Ask not what is it they cannot do but ask yourself what is it they deliver!

Great bunch of guys no doubt, but to isolate them as being something above Judd, Kreuzer, Murphy, Robinson, Laidler, Duigan etc etc is just a little folly.

I don't recall which commentator it was, but they made the point of Carlton supporters still being a little wary of Bower.
He made the good point that Bower along with some other clubs players, just move in a way that is unorthodox and hence we gain a certain level of discofort with them, when the reality of what they do may be quite different.
I may not have termed that well, but I thought the comments were very much on the mark.

 

[goreds]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Bower is typical of our WA blokes like Ellard Army Yarran Garlett
Blokes that bust their ass on and off the field, that have been professional club men from the get go. Ask not what is it they cannot do but ask yourself what is it they deliver!

So, who misses out for Jamo then???

Bower, T-bird, Russell or Army???

 

[jonesy86]

Surely the obvious choice, pie fans, for a second ruck is Keeffe? At 204cm he ought to be a better contender than Dawes.

I watched Wood on the VFL telecast this week and, hmmm. I'd be trialling Keeffe as a backup ruck, leaving Dawes at FF and bringing in Maxwell as an extra defender to replace Tarrant.

Oops, I shouldn't be giving the enemy any ideas. But Wood is a spud.

Keeffe isn't a ruckman, his first couple of years at the club he was tried there and was very poor. He really excelled when moved to a key defensive post, has excellent speed and mobility for a tall guy due to his soccer background as a midfielder.

 

[Claypigeon]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Great bunch of guys no doubt, but to isolate them as being something above Judd, Kreuzer, Murphy, Robinson, Laidler, Duigan etc etc is just a little folly.

I don't recall which commentator it was, but they made the point of Carlton supporters still being a little wary of Bower.
He made the good point that Bower along with some other clubs players, just move in a way that is unorthodox and hence we gain a certain level of discomfort with them, when the reality of what they do may be quite different.
I may not have termed that well, but I thought the comments were very much on the mark.

I assume you meant running patterns rather than just the Emu gait? Its unpredictable for friend and foe alike

 

[HARKER]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

I assume you meant running patterns rather than just the Emu gait? Its unpredictable for friend and foe alike

It was more about a player that may look unco to some, yet by far and away still gets his job done and his efficiency levels may actually be well above the perception.
Bower was just a perfect example of this and in more recent times Carrazzo as well.

 

[Stubba1]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Posts like this shit me.

Bower is currently has the third best DE% in the team, and is in the top handful across the comp for 1%ers, along with Henderson and Laidler. Also has the most disposals and least clangers of that trio.

Stats aside, any impartial observer can see that he is doing his job and doing it well.

Any chance of backing your player in?

^^
This. Earl Spalding was much the same.

 

[Lockyer24]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Surely the obvious choice, pie fans, for a second ruck is Keeffe? At 204cm he ought to be a better contender than Dawes.

I watched Wood on the VFL telecast this week and, hmmm. I'd be trialling Keeffe as a backup ruck, leaving Dawes at FF and bringing in Maxwell as an extra defender to replace Tarrant.

Oops, I shouldn't be giving the enemy any ideas. But Wood is a spud.

Wood will come in for Paine, Johnson for Seedsman, Maxwell for Tarrant and Wellingham for Sinclair.

Just the one change likely for you guys? (Jamison)

 

[reg_lower91]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Posts like this shit me.

Bower is currently has the third best DE% in the team, and is in the top handful across the comp for 1%ers, along with Henderson and Laidler. Also has the most disposals and least clangers of that trio.

Stats aside, any impartial observer can see that he is doing his job and doing it well.

Any chance of backing your player in?

This exactly!

In fact, Bower is equal 24th in the AFL for disposal efficiency (for those who have had 30 or more disposals in total) so far this season (81%) which, IMO, is a great return.

He has had only the 3 clangers which is less then our supposedly better ball users such as Yarran, Murphy, Henderson, Judd and Betts.

And, as Kramer said, he along with Henderson and Laidler round out the top 4 in the AFL with 1%'s.

Has been nothing but quality so far and more than truly deserves his spot.

 

[Big Red is back]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Some reasons why we should win:

- The pies depth is significantly less than the last few times we have met them. Neon Leon, Tarrant, Big Bad Leroy Brown, Didak and Beams being out/retired will ensure that our bottom four or five players will for the first time in a long time we have an advantage. This point cannot be underestimated as guys like Blair have previously snuck under our guard or easily accounted for our comparable 21st/22nd player, now we have the advantage of say Kane Lucas going head to head with one of their kids,

- Waite, Jamo and Kruz all in this is a gigantic difference from the last time we played them and lost in a rather close affair,

- Hendo continues to improve, Dawes going backwards rapidly, his last 6 games of AFL have been terrible and until this recent form slump i was worried about this match up. However now Hendo should be more than capable.

-Second ruck Hampson vs Dawes is great for us, or if they bring Wood in then even better as that would reduce their rotations for mids,

- Yarran, they don't seem to have an inform small who will warrant his attention as such he should be able to rebound at will,

- Maxwell, rushing him back underdone is a huge win for us, very ordinary footballer unless being protected by Tarrant and Reid especially when he is underdone,

Regards

 

[blues4flag]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Disregarding how good a kick he actually is (I think he's fine with ball in hand, no matter how ungainly he looks), comparing his DE with our midfielders is farcical. There's a reason that defenders always lead their team in DE.

 

[HBF]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Wood will come in for Paine, Johnson for Seedsman, Maxwell for Tarrant and Wellingham for Sinclair.

Just the one change likely for you guys? (Jamison)

Jamison and maybe Duigan.

 

[reg_lower91]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Disregarding how good a kick he actually is (I think he's fine with ball in hand, no matter how ungainly he looks), comparing his DE with our midfielders is farcical. There's a reason that defenders always lead their team in DE.

a) No-one compared his DE with midfielders, and;
b) Regardless of who we are comparing him with, he still has to hit his targets when he disposes of the ball, which he does.

Even still, then let's compare him with our other defenders:
Player - Total Disposals - DE%
Bower - 36 - 81%
Scotland - 45 - 78%
Tuohy - 26 - 77%
Armfield - 27 - 74%
Henderson - 29 - 72%
Laidler - 29 - 72%
Yarran - 44 - 70%

 

[parrot]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Forcing them to select Woods should work to our advantage quite nicely. Woods is more of a first ruck type, like Jolly. Playing 2 traditional type rucks in this "sub-rule era" rarely works, and that's why those 2 players have rarely been selected together. But our very strong ruck division is forcing their hand. You just can't afford a weak 2nd ruck to get monstered in the middle especially against a powerful midfield like we have. That's the worry using Dawes. But perhaps Buckley will surprise us all and keep Dawes in the ruck against Kruezer and Hampson? A few headaches for their MC.

 

[reg_lower91]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

- Maxwell, rushing him back underdone is a huge win for us, very ordinary footballer unless being protected by Tarrant and Reid especially when he is underdone

I agree that he is an ordinary footballer, Big Red, but I don't think they are rushing him back. IIRC, he could have played last week but they took the precautionary route.

 

[Quicky]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Salivating at this match, we will see where we really are.

Magpie prime avenue to goal is Cloke and mids going forward. That is what we need to stop.
Hendo gets first go at Cloke. Dawes a bit rusty and not a great aerialist, I would like to see Bower with the job. Was not made accountable last week, lets see where he is really at. Laidler gets Paine (or Wood). This gives Jammo a walk up return as the pinch hitting general/ chop out for Hendo. If not taxed early will be in shape to "do a job" later if required.
Pendlebury needs attention, this a rotating role, Gibbs, Robbo and a couple of others. Ball the one to stop, their prime extractor, Carrazzo has him. Thomas?, perhaps Armfield. The "untaggable" Swan is the key IMO, would simply take him on in the middle, Juddy, Murph, Curnow and co. Suggest we task our emerging Irishman with a role around the ground. Zach has the pace and the will to take him on when Swan prowls the flanks, and particularly when heading forward.
Good luck to their backs keeping our now balanced forward line in check. Reid gets Waite, leaves Keeffe on Hammer and Kreuze. Thornton runs Goldsack or Maxwell around. Good luck O'Brien and Shaw on the amigos, will be so much more ball on the deck, rather than previous chop out marks. Hammer, Waite, Kreuze and TBird will ensure this. If a question of Lucas' fitness in question, a spot is there for Brock or Collins, JR out for Jammo is the logical move down back. For balance and Bower assessment, Duigan has to wait.

Having outlined match ups, it really is time to have them chase us, we have the personnel and particularly the pace. Our biggest danger is the old "down hill skier syndrome", although shaping up like a thing of the past. We now have a good mix of talls, and none of them are slugs, so adds to the pace of the side.

The moment of truth has arrived, realistically we are favourites while they have half a dozen new kids on the block.

You are spot on regarding Dawes over head marking. It's less than ordinary. It opens up the possibility of playing someone like Bower or Laidler on him, without knowing your players better i'd suggest the one with the greater aerobic capacity. What Dawes lacks in aerial ability he makes up with a massive tank. It will be interesting to see how Dawes goes when he is sent back to a permanent forward role. His limitations aside he was excellent there at the start of last year before breaking his hand which he never really recovered from.

In regards to your small forwards they are a worry no doubt. Eddie doesn't seem to get enough credit for his leading and overhead work. Much more than a crumber. I bit like Medhurst for us not that long ago. Having said that I think its important to give our backline some credit. Its no coincidence they are one of the stingiest units going around over the last several seasons. In Shaw, Toovey and O'Brien we have some very good options to play on your smalls Eddie and Garlett and traditionally they have gotten the job done on them.

Primetime Pricey is spot on regarding O'Brien. He has looked less than his usual assured self in recent times but he returned to some good form last week. I hope he carries it into this game as it is long overdue. Whoever he gets i'll be watching that match up closely and not with my usual confidence in him. It's a big game for O'Brien.

The Jamison match up becomes a really important one for you guys. Cloke has been absolutely monstering his opponents lately. Rance put in a good performance but still failed to control him. I wonder if its asking too much for a player coming back for his first game of the season. Massive massive match up in the context of the game.

 

[ESKIE]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Some df thei 'ins' shoguns be under done, ie maxwell, wellingham and Johnson although 'trained the house down'.....not sure why some of these pies are super confident...I expect us to run away with this, blues by 30

Yarran to run amok and our boy murph BOG

Go the mighty blues

 

[HBF]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

The Jamison match up becomes a really important one for you guys. Cloke has been absolutely monstering his opponents lately. Rance put in a good performance but still failed to control him. I wonder if its asking too much for a player coming back for his first game of the season. Massive massive match up in the context of the game.

Jamo played for the Nortern Blues a couple of weeks ago, and then an intra club game last Thursday. As did Duigan. Of course they'll need to cope with the step up in intensity, but that will go for the Collingwood ins which will include Maxwell who hasn't played for a few weeks.

Also, don't underestimate the 2 days extra we have had to prepare for the game. It's widely agreed that this time of year teams run out of steam much quicker than they do in the second half of the year.

Close first half, Carlton to pull away after half time.

Carlton by 13 points.

 

[Quicky]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Some df thei 'ins' shoguns be under done, ie maxwell, wellingham and Johnson although 'trained the house down'.....not sure why some of these pies are super confident...I expect us to run away with this, blues by 30

Yarran to run amok and our boy murph BOG

Go the mighty blues

I wouldn't say super confident is the feeling among most Pies posters. That said I wouldn't underestimate those inclusions. Remembering they will be replacing some pretty inexperienced players. I'm talking less than 10 games. That should make a big difference to us.

 

[smashbox gill]

Re: Rnd 3 Carlton v Collingwood @ MCG Friday 13th April 7.50PM

Warnock for Thornton?

One of the possibilities some were salivating over this preseason was playing Hampson as a permanent forward.

With our defense strengthening with the return of Jamison and Duigan, BT will spend 90% of the time forward. With 1 goal from 2 games, it's time to deliver.

Waite and Hampson as twin targets along with the resting ruck combo of Warnock/Kreuzer could prove a handful. Allowing Walker, Betts and Garlett to run amok.

Id rather Warnock stay out of the side for now. Hammer is doing great in the ruck/ up forward and i dont want this to change. Hammer playing part time in the ruck allows him to get a feel for the ball and get a few possessions/around the ground marks to get his confidence up, then when he goes forward his confidence/awareness is already there.

If he plays permanent forward and things dont go his way, he may get cold and confidence will drop, making him drift out of games, and if this happens he may get dropped.

To be honest i cant see a place for warnock if hammer & Kruezer keep up this good form, the two of them together are a far more dangerous combination than one with warnock. Warnock needs to add a few strings to his bow i feel if he wants to break back into the team. Warnock being a tap ruckman solely isnt enough for him to be playing