I have gotten permission from Tarquin to create this thread so here it goes.
Now I have realised that the Franklin and Gray comparison has come out in various threads, so I thought that it deserved a thread for the time being. Okay, I will present some statistics and reasoning behind my thoughts. Let’s go.
Lance Franklin Vs Robbie Gray
Lance Franklin Profile:
Team: Hawthorn
Position: Forward
Number: 23
Birth date: 20th January 1987
Height: 196cm
Weight: 101kg
Recruited: Perth
Debut: 2005, Round 1 Vs Sydney
Games: 109
Games in 2009: 21
Goals: 323
Goals in 2009: 67
Dream team Price: $354,900
2009 Average: 80.8
Robbie Gray Profile:
Team: Port Adelaide
Position: Forward
Number: 17
Birth date: 30th March 1988
Height: 184cm
Weight: 88kg
Recruited: Oakleigh
Debut: 2007, Round 10 Vs Hawthorn
Games: 37
Games in 2009: 20
Goals: 52
Goals in 2009: 30
Dream team price: $321,200
2009 average: 73.1
Okay, time to get into the statistics:
The prices:
Lance Franklin is currently priced at $354,900 while Robbie Gray is priced at $321, 200 which is $33,700 less.
The DT averages:
Last year Lance Franklin averaged 80.8 points as opposed to Gray’s 73.1. Lance’s highest average is 96.4 while Gray’s is 73.1
The statistic averages:
Kicks: Buddy 8.9, Gray 7.8
Handball: Buddy 6.2, Gray 7.3
Marks: Buddy 5.2, 3.8
Goals: Buddy 3.2, Gray 1.5
Disposals: Buddy 15, Gray 16.2
Tackles: Buddy 2.3, Gray 3.1
FA: Buddy 1.9, Gray 0.8
So what do these statistics mean:
Not much. Buddy averaged these stats while playing in an average side. If Hawks improve this year, then his stats will go up. But this is not certain. Gray averaged these solid stats while playing as a small forward. So imagine what his stats will be like when he moves into the midfield. He averaged a lot more than this against a very good side in the dogs last weekend.
Experience:
Buddy has played 72 more games than Gray has. Buddy debuted and was drafted two years before Gray did.
Their position:
Lance Franklin plays mainly inside the forward 50 and is the Hawk’s focal point. Robbie Gray has played the first three years of his career as a small forward. But Robbie is going to be moved into the midfield for 2010 where he should rack it up. Buddy may push up the ground a little to get the ball, but not as much as Robbie. Okay, the problem that I have with Buddy is that as a forward, he must rely on midfielders to get the ball to him. With Hawthorn’s injury riddled midfield, will this lead to another average year for Buddy? Sewell and Taylor are big losses to the team. They now must rely mainly on Lewis and Mitchell to win the hard ball. Also with Taylor out, Roughead may have a few stints in the ruck which will give the opportunity for opposition teams to double team Franklin. Gray can play as an inside mid, outside mid, small forward and also on the wing. This will allow him to win the ball, tackle as well as kick goals. After all, he was drafted to be a goal kicking midfielder. On the weekend in his first week back, he proved that a move to the midfield is extremely beneficial to us coaches. He managed to accumulate 21 possessions, 5 tackles as well as 2 goals. The only thing that I am worried about is his handball to kick ratio.
Nab Cup form:
Lance Franklin score(s): 92 and 63. We are now waiting on his third score from fantasy freako (that’s if he did play?)
Robbie Gray: 83. He missed the first two Nab Cup matches. I know that he missed one due to club suspension but not sure about the other one.
So both have been in reasonable form over the pre-season and this hasn’t really helped us splitting the two.
Why it is hard to compare them:
We cannot really use statistics from the past because Gray is only now entering his break out years. Franklin has already proved what he can do particularly in 2008 where he averaged just less than 100 points a game.
Their negatives:
Buddy is now relying on an average looking midfield to deliver the ball to him which will decrease his scores. He will also miss round 1.
Gray is still young, unproven and has just shown glimpses of what he is capable of.
The draw and who will increase or decrease in price:
Lance Franklin:
Round 1 – Suspended
Round 2 – Geelong
Round 3 – Western Bulldogs
Round 4 – Collingwood
- Then his price will change.
Past Scores against these teams (in order from most recent):
Geelong: 118, 107, 48, 92
- When he scored 118 he destroyed Taylor in the first quarter so Scarlett went on to him before getting injured. Taylor was unable to go back on him because he was injured too so Mackie was forced to play on him.
- When he scored 107 it was still round 1 of 2009 so Hawks still had most of their guns playing. (Apparently kept quiet until last quarter)
- 48 was Grand final
- 92 he did a good job against Scarlett and Mackie.
Western Bulldogs: 63, 33, 116, 110
- Nab cup game two weeks ago was when he scored 63. He could of scored more but handballed too much. Pretty good job since he was playing on Lake.
- 33. Not really fair. If you remember this game, Dogs were winning by like 80 at half time.
- Back in 2008 when he scored 116 and 110. Very good supply. The 116 was in a final were he kicked 8 goals. But keep in mind, Hawks blitzed this game and Lake wasn’t as dominant as he is now. He also played on Morris for the majority of these games.
Collingwood: 106, 139, 146
- The 139 he played on Maxwell and O’Brien
- The 146 he played on N.Brown
- The 106 he played on Presti
- In all three games, Hawks smashed Collingwood. Can’t see it happening this time around.
Robbie Gray:
Round 1 – North Melbourne
Round 2 – West Coast
Round 3 – Brisbane
- Then his price will change
Past Scores against these teams (in order from most recent):
North Melbourne: 74, 74, 71
- Scored 74 in both games against North in 2009 and also lost by 5 points in both games. Was given the superman icon beside his name in his most recent game against them after having a huge last quarter. This was actually due to a move to the midfield
- The 71 was back in 2008 where he kicked three goals playing as a forward.
West Coast: 64, 45
- When he got 64 he was on fire early but then got injured with a patella tendon injury. Came back on later but couldn’t do much.
- Team got thrashed when he scored 45. He managed a goal and 14 possies as a small forward.
Brisbane: 95, 36
- He scored the 95 last year. Three goals and 18 possessions and played up the ground a little.
- 36 was back in 2007 so who cares.
So Buddy historically does well against the teams that he will play, but most of the time there was a reason behind it. Lake I believe will destroy him. If Hawks do good against Geelong, then so will he. Same against Collingwood
Gray is hard to judge because I believe this will be his break out year since he is moving into the midfield. But whenever he played there in previous years, he scored well.
Also, let’s take a look at the teams that they play and how many points they usually give to the opposition.
Buddy:
Western Bulldogs: Forwards usually don’t score well at all against them.
Geelong: Forward score average against them
Collingwood: Forwards score very badly against them
Gray:
North Melbourne: Concede an average amount of dt points to midfielders.
West Coast: Concede more than any club along with Fremantle to midfielders.
Brisbane: Difficult to score points against Brisbane in the midfield.
My Opinion:
I am still undecided. Franklin needs the Hawks to do well while Gray is unknown. I actually was extremely surprised with Franklin’s previous scores against teams. I just see his price falling even further after he plays the first three rounds. So I am thinking of getting him just before he plays North in round 5 or Essendon in round 6. Gray is very risky at his price. Didn’t know he was 88kg. He is a pretty big boy. Reminds me a lot of a young Ablett and that is why I like him and am too afraid to pass on him. He reads the ruck work so well and is extremely strong in the core. Tackles quite a bit too.
So I have presented the statistics, what do people think?
Things I didn't mention that viewers picked up:
- Franklin had an interrupter pre-season
- Gray had his appendix taken out
- Franklin got most of his points in the last quarter when he scored 107
- Lewis, Burgoyne, Rioli all out along with Sewell and Taylor
Now I have realised that the Franklin and Gray comparison has come out in various threads, so I thought that it deserved a thread for the time being. Okay, I will present some statistics and reasoning behind my thoughts. Let’s go.
Lance Franklin Vs Robbie Gray
Lance Franklin Profile:
Team: Hawthorn
Position: Forward
Number: 23
Birth date: 20th January 1987
Height: 196cm
Weight: 101kg
Recruited: Perth
Debut: 2005, Round 1 Vs Sydney
Games: 109
Games in 2009: 21
Goals: 323
Goals in 2009: 67
Dream team Price: $354,900
2009 Average: 80.8
Robbie Gray Profile:
Team: Port Adelaide
Position: Forward
Number: 17
Birth date: 30th March 1988
Height: 184cm
Weight: 88kg
Recruited: Oakleigh
Debut: 2007, Round 10 Vs Hawthorn
Games: 37
Games in 2009: 20
Goals: 52
Goals in 2009: 30
Dream team price: $321,200
2009 average: 73.1
Okay, time to get into the statistics:
The prices:
Lance Franklin is currently priced at $354,900 while Robbie Gray is priced at $321, 200 which is $33,700 less.
The DT averages:
Last year Lance Franklin averaged 80.8 points as opposed to Gray’s 73.1. Lance’s highest average is 96.4 while Gray’s is 73.1
The statistic averages:
Kicks: Buddy 8.9, Gray 7.8
Handball: Buddy 6.2, Gray 7.3
Marks: Buddy 5.2, 3.8
Goals: Buddy 3.2, Gray 1.5
Disposals: Buddy 15, Gray 16.2
Tackles: Buddy 2.3, Gray 3.1
FA: Buddy 1.9, Gray 0.8
So what do these statistics mean:
Not much. Buddy averaged these stats while playing in an average side. If Hawks improve this year, then his stats will go up. But this is not certain. Gray averaged these solid stats while playing as a small forward. So imagine what his stats will be like when he moves into the midfield. He averaged a lot more than this against a very good side in the dogs last weekend.
Experience:
Buddy has played 72 more games than Gray has. Buddy debuted and was drafted two years before Gray did.
Their position:
Lance Franklin plays mainly inside the forward 50 and is the Hawk’s focal point. Robbie Gray has played the first three years of his career as a small forward. But Robbie is going to be moved into the midfield for 2010 where he should rack it up. Buddy may push up the ground a little to get the ball, but not as much as Robbie. Okay, the problem that I have with Buddy is that as a forward, he must rely on midfielders to get the ball to him. With Hawthorn’s injury riddled midfield, will this lead to another average year for Buddy? Sewell and Taylor are big losses to the team. They now must rely mainly on Lewis and Mitchell to win the hard ball. Also with Taylor out, Roughead may have a few stints in the ruck which will give the opportunity for opposition teams to double team Franklin. Gray can play as an inside mid, outside mid, small forward and also on the wing. This will allow him to win the ball, tackle as well as kick goals. After all, he was drafted to be a goal kicking midfielder. On the weekend in his first week back, he proved that a move to the midfield is extremely beneficial to us coaches. He managed to accumulate 21 possessions, 5 tackles as well as 2 goals. The only thing that I am worried about is his handball to kick ratio.
Nab Cup form:
Lance Franklin score(s): 92 and 63. We are now waiting on his third score from fantasy freako (that’s if he did play?)
Robbie Gray: 83. He missed the first two Nab Cup matches. I know that he missed one due to club suspension but not sure about the other one.
So both have been in reasonable form over the pre-season and this hasn’t really helped us splitting the two.
Why it is hard to compare them:
We cannot really use statistics from the past because Gray is only now entering his break out years. Franklin has already proved what he can do particularly in 2008 where he averaged just less than 100 points a game.
Their negatives:
Buddy is now relying on an average looking midfield to deliver the ball to him which will decrease his scores. He will also miss round 1.
Gray is still young, unproven and has just shown glimpses of what he is capable of.
The draw and who will increase or decrease in price:
Lance Franklin:
Round 1 – Suspended
Round 2 – Geelong
Round 3 – Western Bulldogs
Round 4 – Collingwood
- Then his price will change.
Past Scores against these teams (in order from most recent):
Geelong: 118, 107, 48, 92
- When he scored 118 he destroyed Taylor in the first quarter so Scarlett went on to him before getting injured. Taylor was unable to go back on him because he was injured too so Mackie was forced to play on him.
- When he scored 107 it was still round 1 of 2009 so Hawks still had most of their guns playing. (Apparently kept quiet until last quarter)
- 48 was Grand final
- 92 he did a good job against Scarlett and Mackie.
Western Bulldogs: 63, 33, 116, 110
- Nab cup game two weeks ago was when he scored 63. He could of scored more but handballed too much. Pretty good job since he was playing on Lake.
- 33. Not really fair. If you remember this game, Dogs were winning by like 80 at half time.
- Back in 2008 when he scored 116 and 110. Very good supply. The 116 was in a final were he kicked 8 goals. But keep in mind, Hawks blitzed this game and Lake wasn’t as dominant as he is now. He also played on Morris for the majority of these games.
Collingwood: 106, 139, 146
- The 139 he played on Maxwell and O’Brien
- The 146 he played on N.Brown
- The 106 he played on Presti
- In all three games, Hawks smashed Collingwood. Can’t see it happening this time around.
Robbie Gray:
Round 1 – North Melbourne
Round 2 – West Coast
Round 3 – Brisbane
- Then his price will change
Past Scores against these teams (in order from most recent):
North Melbourne: 74, 74, 71
- Scored 74 in both games against North in 2009 and also lost by 5 points in both games. Was given the superman icon beside his name in his most recent game against them after having a huge last quarter. This was actually due to a move to the midfield
- The 71 was back in 2008 where he kicked three goals playing as a forward.
West Coast: 64, 45
- When he got 64 he was on fire early but then got injured with a patella tendon injury. Came back on later but couldn’t do much.
- Team got thrashed when he scored 45. He managed a goal and 14 possies as a small forward.
Brisbane: 95, 36
- He scored the 95 last year. Three goals and 18 possessions and played up the ground a little.
- 36 was back in 2007 so who cares.
So Buddy historically does well against the teams that he will play, but most of the time there was a reason behind it. Lake I believe will destroy him. If Hawks do good against Geelong, then so will he. Same against Collingwood
Gray is hard to judge because I believe this will be his break out year since he is moving into the midfield. But whenever he played there in previous years, he scored well.
Also, let’s take a look at the teams that they play and how many points they usually give to the opposition.
Buddy:
Western Bulldogs: Forwards usually don’t score well at all against them.
Geelong: Forward score average against them
Collingwood: Forwards score very badly against them
Gray:
North Melbourne: Concede an average amount of dt points to midfielders.
West Coast: Concede more than any club along with Fremantle to midfielders.
Brisbane: Difficult to score points against Brisbane in the midfield.
My Opinion:
I am still undecided. Franklin needs the Hawks to do well while Gray is unknown. I actually was extremely surprised with Franklin’s previous scores against teams. I just see his price falling even further after he plays the first three rounds. So I am thinking of getting him just before he plays North in round 5 or Essendon in round 6. Gray is very risky at his price. Didn’t know he was 88kg. He is a pretty big boy. Reminds me a lot of a young Ablett and that is why I like him and am too afraid to pass on him. He reads the ruck work so well and is extremely strong in the core. Tackles quite a bit too.
So I have presented the statistics, what do people think?
Things I didn't mention that viewers picked up:
- Franklin had an interrupter pre-season
- Gray had his appendix taken out
- Franklin got most of his points in the last quarter when he scored 107
- Lewis, Burgoyne, Rioli all out along with Sewell and Taylor
