Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

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Sweet Jesus said:
Not even a mention?
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Has been consistent good, but I few other made bigger claims atm. Other then Mundy around the amrk as mid I'd have Schultz perhaps in contention for a small forward spot. Was concussed and missed the game after. His 3 full games where pretty good. And I only can think of Toby Greene who is in as small atm.
 
Virgin Dog said:
Theoretically, if there was one spot left for KPFs, and two players had played the same number of games, kicking the same number of goals, which would you choose?

Player A - kicks 2 or 3 goals every single game, rarely higher, rarely lower.
Player B - bunch of 0 or 1 goal games, but a handful of bags (6+) kicked throughout the season.

Who is more deserving? The consistent performer, or the inconsistent gun?
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Easily the consistent performer in my opinion.
 

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Virgin Dog said:
Theoretically, if there was one spot left for KPFs, and two players had played the same number of games, kicking the same number of goals, which would you choose?

Player A - kicks 2 or 3 goals every single game, rarely higher, rarely lower.
Player B - bunch of 0 or 1 goal games, but a handful of bags (6+) kicked throughout the season.

Who is more deserving? The consistent performer, or the inconsistent gun?
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I think if goals are even, you have to consider who the goals came against and in what circumstances.

Two goals in the last quarter of a tight game are worth more than two goals in a thumping win. We don't have a stat that adequately weights goals like that so we'd have to do it manually. But I think that would be a reasonable way to split a tie.

After that, you can also look at things like assists, F50 tackles etc.
 
Sweet Jesus said:
I think if goals are even, you have to consider who the goals came against and in what circumstances.

Two goals in the last quarter of a tight game are worth more than two goals in a thumping win. We don't have a stat that adequately weights goals like that so we'd have to do it manually. But I think that would be a reasonable way to split a tie.

After that, you can also look at things like assists, F50 tackles etc.
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Say all else stays the same, bags were kicked against both good and poor sides. All else equal, which is more deserving of AA?
 
Virgin Dog said:
Say all else stays the same, bags were kicked against both good and poor sides. All else equal, which is more deserving of AA?
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I don't understand the premise.

I thought the question was based on goals coming in different amounts in different circumstances. Now, all else stays the same?

If Kennedy goes goalless a couple of games but kicks 6 against Richmond to get us over the line, I'll take that over someone kicking two goals every week.

The opposition and the circumstances become the tiebreaker. Surely there are points for match-winning performances, for stepping up when it matters most against the best sides.
 
Sweet Jesus said:
I don't understand the premise.

I thought the question was based on goals coming in different amounts in different circumstances. Now, all else stays the same?

If Kennedy goes goalless a couple of games but kicks 6 against Richmond to get us over the line, I'll take that over someone kicking two goals every week.

The opposition and the circumstances become the tiebreaker.
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Not sure what there isn't to understand. You brought up goal assists and tackles, so I said assume those remain the same between the two players. Only looking at the spread of goals kicked between games, which is more deserving of AA? Is it the guy who kicks most of his goals in 5-6 games per year but goes missing a lot, or the guy who consistently delivers 2-3 goals per game, but never really has one standout performance?

One possible (not perfect) example of this was in 2020 - Kennedy and Gunston both kicked 31 goals in the H&A season, but Kennedy had 19 of those goals in just 4 games, went goalless 4 times and kicked a single goal 5 times. Meanwhile Gunston kicked 4 just once, went goalless once, but had hauls of 2 or 3 goals nine times throughout the season. Tackle and mark numbers weren't significantly different between the two, although Gunston did arguably offer more around the ground than Kennedy did. In the end, Gunston made the squad of 40 while Kennedy didn't.
 
Virgin Dog said:
Not sure what there isn't to understand. You brought up goal assists and tackles, so I said assume those remain the same between the two players.
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Ok, I misunderstood what you meant by "all else".

Virgin Dog said:
Only looking at the spread of goals kicked between games, which is more deserving of AA? Is it the guy who kicks most of his goals in 5-6 games per year but goes missing a lot, or the guy who consistently delivers 2-3 goals per game, but never really has one standout performance?
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I'd reiterate the criteria expressed in my earlier posts.

Do the bags amount to match-winning performances against the best sides or is it a downhill skiier cashing in against a bottom side? Some bags are better than others.

Sherry Darling kicked four goals in a quarter against Collingwood when the game was in the balance. That was decisive. He ended up with five goals for the game. How do we quantify that contribution differently against him kicking five goals if we beat someone by 80 points and he gets on the end of a few in junk time? Those five-goal hauls are not equal. One goes a long way to determing the result, the other is a bonus in a game that would have been won anyway. How do we acknowledge that difference? We don't. There's no stat for importance of goals, yet we all recognise that difference.

I'm generally sceptical of using analogies with other sports but consider the mechanism in cricket ratings that weights certain runs/wickets more heavily than others depending on variables such as venue, quality of opposition and the circumstances within the match.

Steve Smith might score 100 against Bangladesh in Adelaide in an innings where Australia score 600 and win the match and the series in a canter. Or he might score 100 in the final innings against India in Chennai, steering Australia to victory despite no one else making double figures. It's the same amount of runs but those contributions are rightly weighted differently. We accept that intuitively in cricket but those distinctions don't seem to get due consideration in footy.

If we were serious about data, we would have a weighted rating for goals. Some goals would be worth more than others. Five goals kicked early when the game is in the balance would be worth more than five goals kicked after the result is decided. Five goals kicked against a highly rated defence would be worth more than five goals against the worst defence. Goals kicked when the margin is 10 points would be worth more than when the margin is 50. There would be a metric that says two goals in the last quarter to get you over the line against the best team are worth far more than two goals when the floodgates are open in a thrashing.

That one statistic regarding the margin would be fascinating. Who's kicked the most goals when the margin is under 10 points or under 20 points? Because that's ultimately what you want from your key forwards. I'm a vocal supporter of Bruce Almighty but 10 goals when you pump North by 120 are not as valuable as two in the last quarter when you beat Richmond by a kick. Right?

We don't have a weighted mechanism to do that in AFL but an approximation based on observation would be a reasonable tiebreaker if all the other numbers are even.

Fair enough?

Virgin Dog said:
One possible (not perfect) example of this was in 2020 - Kennedy and Gunston both kicked 31 goals in the H&A season, but Kennedy had 19 of those goals in just 4 games, went goalless 4 times and kicked a single goal 5 times. Meanwhile Gunston kicked 4 just once, went goalless once, but had hauls of 2 or 3 goals nine times throughout the season. Tackle and mark numbers weren't significantly different between the two, although Gunston did arguably offer more around the ground than Kennedy did. In the end, Gunston made the squad of 40 while Kennedy didn't.
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I'm not going to worry too much about squad selections, where the criteria is even more ambiguous. How many KPPs can you select in a squad of 40? There are 4 KP spots in the final 22 but in the squad of 40 there's no positional breakdown. So how long is a piece of string? Can we pick 12 KPPs?

That aside, in the final analysis, I don't think JK and Gunston would be competing for the same spot in the 22. JK is a straightforward FF. Maybe you could fudge it to pick him at CHF but that would be sketchy and something I don't endorse. He was rightly overlooked last year in the 22 because Hawkins and Dixon were the two best performed key forwards. Also, JK only kicked one big bag, 7 against Collingwood in a thumping. If we were to start splitting hairs, you might argue that his 4 goals in a very tight win over Geelong the following week were more important. Two in the last term to win the game. That's my point.

But to your question, you'd have to make a case for Gunston separately, basically as a utility, if you wanted to sneak him onto a HFF. I wouldn't argue for JK to be picked there.

My pedantry regarding positional integrity outweighs any bias for WC players. But maybe I'm a lone voice of reason in that regard.
 
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Updated:

B: Lever Andrews Haynes
HB: Rich Howard Ridley
C: Langdon Macrae Boak
HF: Martin Riewoldt Petracca
F: Greene Walker Papley
R: Gawn Oliver Bont
Int: Steele Hickey Laird Wines

Out: Seedsman, Bowes, Jones, McKay
In: Langdon, Haynes, Boak, Riewoldt

On the edge: Dunkley, Libba, Darling, McKay, Bowes, Lyons, Sheed

The only true lock right now is Gawn. He’s so much better than any other ruck.
 
Square Peg said:
5 Melbourne players in the 18 LoL
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Quite seriously there is a major case for all five; Lever could be swapped for May. Petracca and Oliver dominant, Gawn far and away the best ruck and Langdon probably the best wingman on form.
 
LeverPuller said:
Updated:

B: Lever Andrews Haynes
HB: Rich Howard Ridley
C: Langdon Macrae Boak
HF: Martin Riewoldt Petracca
F: Greene Walker Papley
R: Gawn Oliver Bont
Int: Steele Hickey Laird Wines

Out: Seedsman, Bowes, Jones, McKay
In: Langdon, Haynes, Boak, Riewoldt

On the edge: Dunkley, Libba, Darling, McKay, Bowes, Lyons, Sheed

The only true lock right now is Gawn. He’s so much better than any other ruck.
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I think there should still be a spot for the best lockdown small/medium defender.

In the back six, you've got three intercepters and a rebounder, plus Laird on the bench.

The best lockdown defenders are among the first picked at any club but it's hard to measure them statistically.
 

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Sweet Jesus said:
I think there should still be a spot for the best lockdown small/medium defender.

In the back six, you've got three intercepters and a rebounder, plus Laird on the bench.

The best lockdown defenders are among the first picked at any club but it's hard to measure them statistically.
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I agree but trying to work out who measures up at this stage isn’t that easy either.
 
B: Jake Lever - Harris Andrews - Jordan Ridley
HB: Daniel Rich - Aliir Aliir - Changouth Jiath
C: Sam Walsh - Jack Steele - Jackson Macrae
HF: Dustin Martin - Taylor Walker - Christian Petracca
F: Harry McKay - Jack Riewoldt - Toby Greene
R: Max Gawn - Josh Dunkley - Clayton Oliver
I/C: Nic Naitanui - Marcus Bontempelli - Ollie Wines - Travis Boak
 
Sweet Jesus said:
Just trying to decide who the two most worthy key forwards are for the rolling AA side.

Obviously Walker, but then who?

I've been a vocal advocate of Bruce Almighty but I'm worried he's about to be dislodged.
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If Buddy stays fit, looks like he's got a fair bit left in the tank.

Edit: sorry, missed the conceit of the thread.
 
Updated team:

FB: Lever (MELB) - Aliir (PTA) - Ridley (ESS)
HB: Rich (BRI) - McGovern (WCE) - Short (RICH)
C: Macrae (WBD) - Bontempelli (WBD) - Dunkley (WBD)
HF: Petracca (MELB) - Walker (ADE) - Martin (RICH)
FF: Pickett (MELB) - Riewoldt (RICH) - Greene (GWS)
R: Gawn (MELB) - Oliver (MELB) - Walsh (CARL)
I/C: Steele (STK) - Boak (PTA) - Mundy (FRE) - Laird (ADE)

By team:

5x players: Melbourne
3x players: Richmond, Dogs
2x players: Adelaide, Port
1x players: Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, West Coast
0x players: Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North, Sydney
 
This is probably way off base but I'm going with:

FB: Jake Lever - Harris Andrews - Jordan Ridley
HB: Luke Ryan - Aliir Aliir - Daniel Rich
MF: Christian Petracca - Clayton Oliver - Josh Dunkley
HF: Orazio Fantasia - Jack Riewoldt - Kysaiah Pickett
FF: Toby Greene - Taylor Walker - Harry McKay
OB: Max Gawn - Dustin Martin - Marcus Bontempelli
IC: Jack Steele - Travis Boak - Sam Walsh - Rory Laird
 

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Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

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