Strategy Rookie draft

[THE CAT WRANGLER]

I think now with the National draft completed we should round out our list with the following additions

# 1. Liam Mackie - h/b Glenelg

# 2. Jack Henry - med forward Geelong Falcons

# 3 . Tom Atkins - mid Geelong VFL

# 4 . Sam Simpson sm forward Geelong Falcons

 

[OzeSparky]

Heres the Cat B's Rookies we can pick from.
http://footyprophet.com/breaking-down-the-barriers-of-category-b-rookies/

 

[DanA]

Guthrie any chance?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

May as well keep selecting GFL players here too.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

May as well keep selecting GFL players here too.

This post is constructive how?

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

This post is constructive how?

If you're going to pick out one post that isn't constructive because it's a negative viewpoint on last nights insipid selections, then I expect you to be consistent and point out the thousands of non-constructive posts that are often left ignored because they're in accordance with popular opinion.

Cheers

Nakia

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Some names I posted from the other thread last night:

Jonty Scharenberg-All Australian AA midfielder this year, brother of Matt at Collingwood. Wins a heap of the ball and has good hands in close, kicking the query.

Sam Walker-classy half back from Glenelg, can really intercept mark and ping long accurate kicks the other way.

Ben Jarman-good creative small fwd, if the Crows don't nominate him as a father soon rookie (I assume they will and we will with Sam Simpson)

Zac Sproule-skinny but good marking and good moving CHF/CHB from GWS academy.

Mitch McCarthy-skilled tall forward from the Stingrays, coming off a broken foot but a late developer with some real potential.

Matt Guelfi-consistent inside midfielder from Claremont who can win the ball and use it well.

Jamie Hampton-brother of Curtly, needs to work on consistency but has real pace and skills off half back or the wing.

Kim LeBois-classy small forward who can turn on a dime and has good skills. Size is a question mark but if you are good enough you can make up for it.

I have excluded Alex Villis from this list due to his heart condition but obviously if he decides to continue with footy and gets a medical clearance he is a very good player.

I also think Tom Atkins from our vfl team and Michael Gibbons from Williamstown are both AFL standard and should get rookied by clubs.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If you're going to pick out one post that isn't constructive because it's a negative viewpoint on last nights insipid selections, then I expect you to be consistent and point out the thousands of non-constructive posts that are often left ignored because they're in accordance with popular opinion.

Cheers

Nakia

I understand and as mods we will be. The point of this thread is to talk about our picks for Monday so rather than just saying what you don't like why don't you talk about what you do like and who you think we should draft? That would offer something good to the discussion.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Guthrie any chance?


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Zach is pretty raw but has nice skills, no one picked him. That said given we didn't pick Josh (the other Guthrie brother) last year and Zach is similar I would be surprised if we pick him.

 

[David the Cat]

I understand and as mods we will be. The point of this thread is to talk about our picks for Monday so rather than just saying what you don't like why don't you talk about what you do like and who you think we should draft? That would offer something good to the discussion.

Because if he actually got it right, he would have nothing to complain about.

You will note that very few of the "critics", bitter about the selections , made predictions about who we should draft.....

 

[ChookNorris]

There is a lot if excitement coming from the East Geelong reserves this week... Pretty likely I may be selected from centre-half bench onto an AFL list Monday if Wells current form continues.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I would like to try and see us pick a decently skilled medium forward if we can, I feel like with our selections last night we have decent depth in most positions but we don't really have any backup for Menzel.

 

[year of the cat]

Just name a few more VFL players and you should get close

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Just name a few more VFL players and you should get close

Cmon mate. A) after taking 3 mature players it's unlikely we will take another 3 as rookies and b) you are better than that as you are good on the analysis so I would like to hear your thoughts as to what and who you think we will be after.

I think with late rookie picks (16 32 48 and 64 the last of which will be Sam Simspon) we may look to needs a bit. I reckon we are well set for small forwards with Narkle and Sam Simpson adding to McCarthy and Gregson and we are reasonably well stocked for tall and medium defenders with Stewart adding to that group. House is more of a KPF than Kersten who was a third tall and I know Black seems to think he is a third tall but he is fairly injury prone if we are talking backups for Menzel so I would like to see us look at another medium forward. Wouldn't mind a skilled ball carrying outside midfielder too so we have some options in the event Motlop doesn't return to his AA form or Murdoch doesn't come back to some of his better 13/14 form. Think we are well set enough for rucks now and the midfield bats reasonably deep.

 

[GHS33]

Lots of quality SA lads still available:

- Scharenberg (inside MID)
- Walker (medium DEF)
- Hinge (medium DEF)
- Kirk (outside MID)
- Noonan (outside MID)
- Ladhams (RUC)
- Cameron (tall DEF)
- Lebois (small FWD)
- Jarman (small FWD)
- Carter (tall FWD)
- Bedford (outside MID)

I'd be happy with any of these tbh. Few Sacred Heart boys in there too!

I think Kirk's the one that's gone under the radar though. I'd also like us to look at Oscar Junker, Tony Olango, Oliver Hanrahan, Jack Henry, and maybe even Jarrod Korewha.

 

[year of the cat]

Cmon mate. A) after taking 3 mature players it's unlikely we will take another 3 as rookies and b) you are better than that as you are good on the analysis so I would like to hear your thoughts as to what and who you think we will be after.

I think with late rookie picks (16 32 48 and 64 the last of which will be Sam Simspon) we may look to needs a bit. I reckon we are well set for small forwards with Narkle and Sam Simpson adding to McCarthy and Gregson and we are reasonably well stocked for tall and medium defenders with Stewart adding to that group. House is more of a KPF than Kersten who was a third tall and I know Black seems to think he is a third tall but he is fairly injury prone if we are talking backups for Menzel so I would like to see us look at another medium forward. Wouldn't mind a skilled ball carrying outside midfielder too so we have some options in the event Motlop doesn't return to his AA form or Murdoch doesn't come back to some of his better 13/14 form. Think we are well set enough for rucks now and the midfield bats reasonably deep.

Pretty disillusioned after last night. To be honest I think this trade/draft period has been a complete waste of opportunity. Sure that was a throw away line but if I'd said prior to last nights draft that we'd be taking 3 VFL players you would have thought I was madder than Trump.

Wells needs to get back to what made him one of the best recruiters in the business. Identifying the best young talent available; not being too cute; and start to think of 3-5 years ahead rather than mindless bandaids that we've seen of late.

 

[GHS33]

My ideal outcome:

Preseason draft:
Jonty Scharenberg

Rookie draft:
Zach Sproule
Sam Walker
Brayden Kirk/Mitch Carter

 

[BUSTER29]

My ideal outcome:

Preseason draft:
Jonty Scharenberg

Rookie draft:
Zach Sproule
Sam Walker
Brayden Kirk/Mitch Carter

Whats the deal with Scharenberg?
Fairly highly touted pre draft but missed out?
Any chance he will be around at our pick in rookie draft?

 

[GHS33]

Whats the deal with Scharenberg?
Fairly highly touted pre draft but missed out?
Any chance he will be around at our pick in rookie draft?

I reckon either Port or the Crows will take him in the PSD. I keep seeing people say his kicking is the knock on him, but I've seen a lot of him and his kicking is fine. He also played league footy for Glenelg at 16.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Pretty disillusioned after last night. To be honest I think this trade/draft period has been a complete waste of opportunity. Sure that was a throw away line but if I'd said prior to last nights draft that we'd be taking 3 VFL players you would have thought I was madder than Trump.

Wells needs to get back to what made him one of the best recruiters in the business. Identifying the best young talent available; not being too cute; and start to think of 3-5 years ahead rather than mindless bandaids that we've seen of late.

Wells great reputation is largely based around two drafts where the club was able to assemble multiple selections inside the top 40.
I'm not sure he's had that opportunity since '01; he certainly didn't have that hand to play last night.
Any disillusionment I have felt manifested during trade week; due to the club's (= Wells as well, of course) decision to load up on the likes of Dangerfield, Henderson, Tuohy etc we just didn't have that necessary bunch of sub-#40 selections to replicate the approach the club took in '99 and '01.

 

[pussygalore]

Didn't Wells mention that he may redraft Luxford?

 

[year of the cat]

Wells great reputation is largely based around two drafts where the club was able to assemble multiple selections inside the top 40.
I'm not sure he's had that opportunity since '01; he certainly didn't have that hand to play last night.
Any disillusionment I have felt manifested during trade week; due to the club's (= Wells as well, of course) decision to load up on the likes of Dangerfield, Henderson, Tuohy etc we just didn't have that necessary bunch of sub-#40 selections to replicate the approach the club took in '99 and '01.

Sure, he wasn't in the position of GWS, Bris or even Ess, but this was a deep draft where decent talent could be taken right to the very end. Aside from Parfitt and Narkle (jury out on Esava as he's a project that could be an inspired choice or a flop - but a risk nevertheless), Wells forfeited the opportunity to utilise the six picks he had available. Instead, for reasons I'm still struggling to understand, he took 3 VFL players from Geelong.

Now, it's been suggested we need these mature types for positional depth. I'd suggest that IF we are relying on the likes of House and Abbott to win a flag then it just isn't going to happen. Secondly if one accepts that we do need that positional depth then do it through the rookie draft - those two would have lasted until then. Abbott wouldn't have be taken in either I'd say.

To me, this draft strategy was completely ill-conceived. I'd love to listen to Wells or Scott justify it. It surely can't be on the basis of talent. No one else had these players anywhere near where they were taken. To use a yacht racing analogy, Wells has headed by himself to the other side of the course to the rest of the fleet hoping to pick up a wind shift that the forecasts suggest won't happen.

With regard to Parfitt, I'll reserve judgement but it makes me very nervous to pick up a guy with recent hip and groin issues. The Wells mantra seems to be to look at a talented, injured kid from that year who's standing is likely to fall. That's all well and good, and worked a treat with Selwood, but it's a high risk strategy and one this year that may not have been necessary. When the likes of Bolton, Battle and B.Cox are still available then there were choices out there that were physically sound that also had talent rated highly by some learned draft watchers. But, as I say, I'll bow to Wells' judgement at this stage. But if we hear of Parfitt having to be "managed" in 2017 then the alarm bells will chime.

The choice of Esava was also a little odd to me too. Another project on top of the Irish boy we've just taken. We saw Luxford failed, the Irish ruck (can't remember his name) failed. These are darts being thrown with the hope that one in five or six may hit the bulls eye. But the vision of him looks ok. He has some physical attributes that I can see would be appealing. Hopefully he can also play footy.

It will be interesting to see our approach to the rookie draft. I really have no idea what players, aside from perhaps Simpson, Wells will look at. Unfortunately though, with our picks we'll be picking late.

Sorry for the doom and gloom. I'm by nature a normally optimistic person and have been until recently since we broke the drought in 2007. But I just see more and more signs of hubris invading this club that can only end badly. I tend to think it's time for a bit of change of personal within some of the key positions within the club. Perhaps we are needing a fresh approach? Perhaps some of the current incumbents are weary or lacking the necessary drive? We will see in 2017-2019 whether I'm off the mark (I hope I'm as wrong about this by the way).

 

[Wojo]

Sure, he wasn't in the position of GWS, Bris or even Ess, but this was a deep draft where decent talent could be taken right to the very end. Aside from Parfitt and Narkle (jury out on Esava as he's a project that could be an inspired choice or a flop - but a risk nevertheless), Wells forfeited the opportunity to utilise the six picks he had available. Instead, for reasons I'm still struggling to understand, he took 3 VFL players from Geelong.

Now, it's been suggested we need these mature types for positional depth. I'd suggest that IF we are relying on the likes of House and Abbott to win a flag then it just isn't going to happen. Secondly if one accepts that we do need that positional depth then do it through the rookie draft - those two would have lasted until then. Abbott wouldn't have be taken in either I'd say.

To me, this draft strategy was completely ill-conceived. I'd love to listen to Wells or Scott justify it. It surely can't be on the basis of talent. No one else had these players anywhere near where they were taken. To use a yacht racing analogy, Wells has headed by himself to the other side of the course to the rest of the fleet hoping to pick up a wind shift that the forecasts suggest won't happen.

With regard to Parfitt, I'll reserve judgement but it makes me very nervous to pick up a guy with recent hip and groin issues. The Wells mantra seems to be to look at a talented, injured kid from that year who's standing is likely to fall. That's all well and good, and worked a treat with Selwood, but it's a high risk strategy and one this year that may not have been necessary. When the likes of Bolton, Battle and B.Cox are still available then there were choices out there that were physically sound that also had talent rated highly by some learned draft watchers. But, as I say, I'll bow to Wells' judgement at this stage. But if we hear of Parfitt having to be "managed" in 2017 then the alarm bells will chime.

The choice of Esava was also a little odd to me too. Another project on top of the Irish boy we've just taken. We saw Luxford failed, the Irish ruck (can't remember his name) failed. These are darts being thrown with the hope that one in five or six may hit the bulls eye. But the vision of him looks ok. He has some physical attributes that I can see would be appealing. Hopefully he can also play footy.

It will be interesting to see our approach to the rookie draft. I really have no idea what players, aside from perhaps Simpson, Wells will look at. Unfortunately though, with our picks we'll be picking late.

Sorry for the doom and gloom. I'm by nature a normally optimistic person and have been until recently since we broke the drought in 2007. But I just see more and more signs of hubris invading this club that can only end badly. I tend to think it's time for a bit of change of personal within some of the key positions within the club. Perhaps we are needing a fresh approach? Perhaps some of the current incumbents are weary or lacking the necessary drive? We will see in 2017-2019 whether I'm off the mark (I hope I'm as wrong about this by the way).

Great post. Think you have summed that up really well with the yacht racing analogy spot on.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Sure, he wasn't in the position of GWS, Bris or even Ess, but this was a deep draft where decent talent could be taken right to the very end. Aside from Parfitt and Narkle (jury out on Esava as he's a project that could be an inspired choice or a flop - but a risk nevertheless), Wells forfeited the opportunity to utilise the six picks he had available. Instead, for reasons I'm still struggling to understand, he took 3 VFL players from Geelong.

Now, it's been suggested we need these mature types for positional depth. I'd suggest that IF we are relying on the likes of House and Abbott to win a flag then it just isn't going to happen. Secondly if one accepts that we do need that positional depth then do it through the rookie draft - those two would have lasted until then. Abbott wouldn't have be taken in either I'd say.

To me, this draft strategy was completely ill-conceived. I'd love to listen to Wells or Scott justify it. It surely can't be on the basis of talent. No one else had these players anywhere near where they were taken. To use a yacht racing analogy, Wells has headed by himself to the other side of the course to the rest of the fleet hoping to pick up a wind shift that the forecasts suggest won't happen.

With regard to Parfitt, I'll reserve judgement but it makes me very nervous to pick up a guy with recent hip and groin issues. The Wells mantra seems to be to look at a talented, injured kid from that year who's standing is likely to fall. That's all well and good, and worked a treat with Selwood, but it's a high risk strategy and one this year that may not have been necessary. When the likes of Bolton, Battle and B.Cox are still available then there were choices out there that were physically sound that also had talent rated highly by some learned draft watchers. But, as I say, I'll bow to Wells' judgement at this stage. But if we hear of Parfitt having to be "managed" in 2017 then the alarm bells will chime.

The choice of Esava was also a little odd to me too. Another project on top of the Irish boy we've just taken. We saw Luxford failed, the Irish ruck (can't remember his name) failed. These are darts being thrown with the hope that one in five or six may hit the bulls eye. But the vision of him looks ok. He has some physical attributes that I can see would be appealing. Hopefully he can also play footy.

It will be interesting to see our approach to the rookie draft. I really have no idea what players, aside from perhaps Simpson, Wells will look at. Unfortunately though, with our picks we'll be picking late.

Sorry for the doom and gloom. I'm by nature a normally optimistic person and have been until recently since we broke the drought in 2007. But I just see more and more signs of hubris invading this club that can only end badly. I tend to think it's time for a bit of change of personal within some of the key positions within the club. Perhaps we are needing a fresh approach? Perhaps some of the current incumbents are weary or lacking the necessary drive? We will see in 2017-2019 whether I'm off the mark (I hope I'm as wrong about this by the way).

I really respect your posts like this, even when I disagree with some of the content as I do here I really respect the effort you put in and the way you analyse the issues mate.

On the bolded I am not so sure, looking at the draft it was very instructive to me what happened beyond 40 (where we took Stewart). Mature agers went early as Cameron the WAFL ruck (who we may have wanted to take rather than Abbott) went in the 40s as did Hannan from the Dogs vfl side and then guys like the fatter Rioli (who is a rookie pick in a normal year if ever I have seen one) and a retread like DeBoer went in the 50s. By the range around where we took House and Abbott clubs were taking massive spec picks like Lewis Young and Polson and Signorello and Johnstone and if you look at what went after Abbott there are a few spec guys there. And then a lot of recruiters passed in the 70s when they didn't need to. That to me says while Twomey was selling it as a deep draft most of the clubs and recruiters didn't think that way as when they start taking lots of mature agers and spec picks towards the back end it generally is because they think the depth isn't there.

As I said last night Geelong didn't really 'forfeit' kids, we have only pushed the selections back. Whether people like it or not we were always going to take 2 or 3 mature agers out of 10 we were never going to take 10 kids which is why I predicted we would take both of Stewart and House. So the net number of kids is the same as what it would have been it's just that instead of taking the kids last night and the mature agers on Monday we are doing it the other way around and took some mature agers last night and kids on Monday. Whether we have lost out doing that or not is hard to say until after the rookie draft.

On the rest to me there are two separate issues (and they shouldn't be lumped together). One is the strategy of trading early picks to fill needs and age gaps (which we have done) and the history of then taking some 'reaches' with the early picks we have left. While I think our trade period last year was really good I agree there is a genuine debate to be had there as to whether thats the best way to go. On the injuries I totally agree with you that is an issue I just don't have the medical data to quantify whether it's poor decisions or bad luck and whether it falls on our recruiters or medical staff but I agree it's an issue.

The second separate issue is our strategy of taking mature guys with our late picks and rookie picks. On this I find it interesting that for a club with good recruiters our record with rookie picks in the 90s and early 00s was very poor. I think part of it is that we were drafting too many raw roject types this is an issue because with high picks you can afford to give them 4-6 years if they need development or have injuries etc but with late or rookie picks you can really only give 2 years (maybe 3 at the most) so by drafting project types you dont get enough time to see their full development before you have to decide whether to cut them. I believe that our late pick/rookie strike rate has got a lot better (I haven't got time to do the data analysis but to my eye we are getting a better strike rate) as we are focusing on drafting either more mature age players or U18 guys who are more mature physically and therefore can show their wares better in years 1 and 2. Laidler Podsiadly Mumford Walker Burbury Simpkin Sheringham Hartman Gore Menegola Ruggles and now last night's guys are all examples of this. Now not every pick comes off but I do tend to think it's a better strategy than just picking raw spec picks with every late pick.

I haven't decided on whether I like Parfitt yet although I will say I can't agree if most people are upset that we didn't take Bolton instead. Bolton is inconsistent and often lazy and while he is a very good player I doubt he will ever become a proper midfielder at AFL level and my theory is you shouldn't be taking specialist small forwards with early picks unless their surnames are Rioli or Motlop-the data says most good small forwards are taken late. So I am pretty happy we didn't take Bolton. Battle I was more surprised we passed on but time will tell on that.

Anyway back to the rookie draft any thoughts on who/what you would like to see us take?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Lots of quality SA lads still available:

- Scharenberg (inside MID)
- Walker (medium DEF)
- Hinge (medium DEF)
- Kirk (outside MID)
- Noonan (outside MID)
- Ladhams (RUC)
- Cameron (tall DEF)
- Lebois (small FWD)
- Jarman (small FWD)
- Carter (tall FWD)
- Bedford (outside MID)

I'd be happy with any of these tbh. Few Sacred Heart boys in there too!

I think Kirk's the one that's gone under the radar though. I'd also like us to look at Oscar Junker, Tony Olango, Oliver Hanrahan, Jack Henry, and maybe even Jarrod Korewha.

Good suggestions as historically Wells likes his SA players and he didn't take one last night (well technically Parfitt has played in SA but he is from NT). I am interested to know as I know you know the SA guys well, have you seen Liam Mackie play and if so where would you rate him?