Round 13 AFL

[X_box_X]

Fremantle paying $2.05 against Essendon. Is this a joke?

I rate Fremantle as a $1.60 favourite. You have to given it's at Subiaco, Essendon don't travel well, plus Essendon dropped two games at home they were expected to win (Melbourne and Sydney), while Fremantle defeated a white hot Richmond at the MCG.

Only thing I can think of is no Sandilands. Understandably a bit factor, but not as big as home ground advantage.

 

[yamahamoto]

Last time they played at Subi Sandiland didnt play as well...same as you I expected Freo to be favourite...also Dogs is a bit too short against Lions.

 

[X_box_X]

I just researched Essendon's record at Subiaco/Pattersons. It's even worse than I thought.

6 wins and 21 losses. That is terrible considering Essendon have been quite successful between 1987 and now. Added to that, Freo have had some bleak years.

I do understand a lot of games would have been played at the WACCA before 1999.

 

[hawkes2012]

ill be taking freo at $2 for sure they should be fav around $1.40 imo

 

[yamahamoto]

for this round
Sydney line
Lions line or either team under 15
Collingwood line if they get Shaw, Reid and Pendle back
Freo straight
Melbourne line or under 39
Adelaide line

 

[The_Big_Ship]

I like Freo too, also the Cats and Lions at the line.

 

[teethwash]

for this round
Sydney line
Lions line or either team under 15
Collingwood line if they get Shaw, Reid and Pendle back
Freo straight
Melbourne line or under 39
Adelaide line

Pendles is out for another 2 weeks apparently.

What am I missing with Adelaide? Thought they'd open way shorter than 1.45.

 

[Eleven 38]

Wow freo really is over $2, thought it was a joke, I don't bet on essendon or freo games, but it does look to be a good value bet.

 

[Cuzz09]

Western Bulldogs
Collingwood
Melbourne
Adelaide

multi @ $3.57

(line multi)

Sydney -8.5
W.Bulldogs -20.5
Collingwood -14.5
Essendon -3.5
Melbourne -21.5
Kangaroos +19.5

$50 odds (for a larf)

 

[SCHUMACHER]

Freo 1-39 @ 2.60 is also a good one, I wouldn't expect them to put a top 8 team to the sword.

 

[bisazc887]

Going to hit Adelaide big time at that price (kangas look as though they couldnt beat time if they hadnt beaten some bottom teams) then maybe some multis with adelaide banked, 1 with sydney, 1 with WCE and 1 with Melbourne, keen on sydney,and melbourne and coll should win but 2.90 is value for WCE.

 

[pendlez10]

I also agree with the freo bet. I don't think Ess will lose by much though.

Adelaide at $1.45 seems an absolute steal. Adelaide are a very good footy side who don't mind playing etihad. North Melb are shizen at the moment .

Pies will miss Pendlebury but we should get a couple back. If we do win it wont be by much imo.

Freo 1-39 @$2.60
Syd 1-39 @$2.30
Pies 1-39 @$2.15
Crows -19.5 @$1.90

 

[denitofinito]

I also agree with the freo bet. I don't think Ess will lose by much though.

Adelaide at $1.45 seems an absolute steal. Adelaide are a very good footy side who don't mind playing etihad. North Melb are shizen at the moment .

Pies will miss Pendlebury but we should get a couple back. If we do win it wont be by much imo.

Freo 1-39 @$2.60
Syd 1-39 @$2.30
Pies 1-39 @$2.15
Crows -19.5 @$1.90

Apart from the win earlier this year against Carlton (who have gone on to further prove how out of form they are) Adelaide are 1 and 8 at Etihad, with 6 out of those 8 losses by a margin of 30+ in the last 2 years. What part of that record makes them not mind playing etihad?

That said, I still think $1.45 is a decent price for them vs North.

Agree Freo is value this week, and also like Dogs -18.5 against a Lions side that dont mind by losing by big margins especially at Eithad.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I assume that's why you can get the $1.45. They look a different team under Sanderson and the way they beat Carlton goes a long way to prove that Etihad will no longer be an issue for them. Really, there is no reason it should be a bogey ground for them. It should suit the two big guys with a dry ball and a fast track. North have officially moved into pathetic territory, last week was one of the most painful games I've seen in a while (and I've seen most Freo games) . If Adelaide don't run all over them I'd be very surprised, the Roos have zero at the moment.

 

[yamahamoto]

Wil Minson is out for Dogs...Lions line looking good

 

[Bullfrog5]

Wil Minson is out for Dogs...Lions line looking good

Hudson will forget who he's playing for and tap to the Dogs' onballers.

 

[redandwhite]

Fremantle 1-39
Adelaide H2H

Any opinions on Melbourne vs GWS? I've been waiting for this game for a while. I can see this going down to the wire so the 21.5 line looks interesting.

 

[jhamilton]

Punters who backed Toby Greene for Rising Star Nominee last round ought to be filthy.

Daniel Talia got the nod. Really AFL?? An injured Roo kicked 2 goals on him. Not a bad effort, but surely Greene's 24 disposals and 2 goals was superior...

 

[twarby]

that is what you get for taking a $4 favourite in a micky mouse market

 

[Sunny_]

Punters who backed Toby Greene for Rising Star Nominee last round ought to be filthy.

Daniel Talia got the nod. Really AFL?? An injured Roo kicked 2 goals on him. Not a bad effort, but surely Greene's 24 disposals and 2 goals was superior...

Toby Greene cannot get a nomination since he got a 1-match ban from the MRP a few weeks ago against the Lions. Rough conduct on Adcock I think. He accepted it.

This makes him inillegible to get nominated for the RS, I'm pretty sure.

Toby Greene, GWS Giants, has been charged with a level two engaging in rough conduct offence against Jed Adcock, Brisbane Lions, during the fourth quarter of the Round Eight match between the GWS Giants and the Brisbane Lions, played at the Gabba on Sunday May 20, 2012.

In summary, he can accept a one-match sanction with an early plea.​

​

Based on the video evidence available and a medical report from the Brisbane Lions Football Club, the incident was assessed as reckless conduct (two points), low impact (one point) and high contact (two points). This is a total of five activation points, resulting in a classification of a level two offence, drawing 225 demerit points and a two-match sanction. He has no existing good or bad record. An early plea reduces the sanction by 25 per cent to 168.75 points and a one-match sanction.​

​

 

[asanque]

Toby Greene cannot get a nomination since he got a 1-match ban from the MRP a few weeks ago against the Lions. Rough conduct on Adcock I think. He accepted it.

This makes him inillegible to get nominated for the RS, I'm pretty sure.

​

​

Unfortunately, whilst Toby Greene cannot win the Rising Star 2012, he is still eligible for nomination.

According to Wikipedia anyway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_Rising_Star#Eligibility_and_nominations

['A player who is suspended[notes 1] during the season is not eligible to win the award, however is still eligible for nomination.[2]']

 

[Sunny_]

Unfortunately, whilst Toby Greene cannot win the Rising Star 2012, he is still eligible for nomination.

According to Wikipedia anyway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_Rising_Star#Eligibility_and_nominations

['A player who is suspended[notes 1] during the season is not eligible to win the award, however is still eligible for nomination.[2]']

Huh, I stand corrected. Though that's a very odd ruling. Why would they let people be nominated if they can't win the thing?

 

[KardiniaPark]

Huh, I stand corrected. Though that's a very odd ruling. Why would they let people be nominated if they can't win the thing?

You can still get Brownlow votes after being ineligible.

 

[X_box_X]

You can still get Brownlow votes after being ineligible.

Totally different awards. Brownlow votes are handed out each game. Only one player per round is nominated for the Rising Star Award, and nine panelists award 5-4-3-2-1 votes after the season.

You shouldn't be allowed to be nominated for the RS award if you aren't eligible to receive it.

The Brownlow is different. Let's say Gary Ablett dominates each and every game for the year, and is given votes in the first 20 games of the season. Let's assume he also gets suspended and misses round 21. With your theory, he can't win the Brownlow, so shouldn't be eligible to poll any votes in round 22, despite being a clear BOG.

This means potentially the player who polls three votes in the round 22 game against Gold Coast (would have polled two votes if Ablett was eligible for the Brownlow), could end up winning the Brownlow by one vote from a player who received two votes against the Gold Coast earlier in the year, despite an ineligible Ablett polling the three votes because at that stage of the year he had not yet been suspended.

That's why players who have been suspended should always be eligible to poll votes.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Yeah i'll be honest, it got too involved and I lost interest really quickly.