Round 13 AFL

[PIESPREMIERS2010]

Really like Freo at home this week. Great win against Richmond 2 weeks ago, and Essendon's form at Subi is no good.

1u Freo 15.5+ @2.75

 

[Ilike2play]

Freo were 1.85 favs @ tab now 1.90 a piece

On centre bet Monday 1.85 freo ess 1.95 ..today freo 1.95 ess 1.85 ..,

Why all the money on essendon ??why???

Any injury news or Chinese whispers???

As an essendon supporter I'm ready for a max bet on freo this week..and all this $$ on essendon is abit hmmmm

 

[twarby]

because Freo are shit
Ross Lyon beat Essendon? good luck with that

 

[Gift]

St Kilda always lost to Essendon when Rossy was coaching with his defensive game plan???
Freo usually beat Essendon at home???

50/50 match imo, maybe Freo slight favs due to home factor, bye will help Essendon more though due to their game style

 

[iluvparis]

Multi for the round
Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Melbourne - all H2H @ $2.63 (IAS)

2012: 5-3 +3.63
Multis: 3-3 +0.78
DT: 2-0 +2.85

 

[X_box_X]

St Kilda always lost to Essendon when Rossy was coaching with his defensive game plan???
Freo usually beat Essendon at home???

50/50 match imo, maybe Freo slight favs due to home factor, bye will help Essendon more though due to their game style

Last year, Essendon lost both of their games after the bye. Upset by Melbourne in round eleven by 33 points, and smashed by Carlton in the EF. Freo, on the other hand, lost to Richmond by 49 points at the MCG, but were able to upset Sydney at the SCG.

I would also argue that Freo's game plan is more taxing than Essendon's, and the Dockers will definitely benefit more from the break. Running doesn't tire you out. It's consistent second, third, fourth efforts over and over again a tighter defensive and more disciplined structure that tires you out more.

I'm amazed the money is coming for Essendon. Freo should be a $1.60 favourite.

 

[Donkson]

Essendon were also utter shit for like 7/8 years

 

[Nothing]

Freo will have 4-5 forced changes to their current best 22. The bombers have been excellent for most of the year. Heart Freo. Head bombers.

 

[twarby]

I would also argue that Freo's game plan is more taxing than Essendon's, and the Dockers will definitely benefit more from the break. Running doesn't tire you out. It's consistent second, third, fourth efforts over and over again a tighter defensive and more disciplined structure that tires you out more.

staggered by these comments

 

[X_box_X]

staggered by these comments

Explain?

 

[The_Doctor]

staggered by these comments

Really? You reckon a free flowing running game at etihad would take more out of you than a hard contested footy slog?

 

[Resarenco]

For professional athletes I would say, the more free-flowing the match is, the more time they need to recover. Stop/start at a high tempo seems to require less recovery time, as they get to rest during the match. Tennis players for example are able to play every second day, sometimes multiple days in a row.

 

[The_Doctor]

For professional athletes I would say, the more free-flowing the match is, the more time they need to recover. Stop/start at a high tempo seems to require less recovery time, as they get to rest during the match. Tennis players for example are able to play every second day, sometimes multiple days in a row.

How many tennis players tackle each other?

I would think recovery would take longer from a contested footy slog in the wet with a high tackle count than a 200 point free flowing match under the roof

 

[X_box_X]

How many tennis players tackle each other?

I would think recovery would take longer from a contested footy slog in the wet with a high tackle count than a 200 point free flowing match under the roof

I would know. I play footy.

Can't wait to see Twarby's response. He is going to be pasted for it.

 

[twarby]

you are not just recovering from the most recent match, its a chance for players who were playing with injuries to get a good week off.. the bye would have helped both teams, Bombers needed a week off after two bad losses, which could have been corrected with some simple straight kicking, this in itself shows how tired the players were, our game plan was just as tough on our players as any other club.
Fremantle would also benefit from it after a tough game in the wet in Melbourne.
the bye is not just for physical recovery, but also mental.

nice stats on Essendon in Perth, not sure what most of the those results have to do with our current team? but hey its still a better strike rate than Fremantle has without Sandilands, not to mention, Ballantyne, Fyfe & Dawson. possibly Hill.

if the Bombers kick straight, Freo won't keep up

 

[Bullfrog5]

if the Bombers kick straight, Freo won't keep up

Agreed. But for exceptionally poor accuracy, the Bombers would have beaten the Demons and Swans comfortably.

If they kick straight vs Freo, they win.

 

[go u jimmy b]

4 (counting Hill being a non starter) forced changes for Freo vs Ess poor form at Subi. I'll be taking Ess myself, the record isn't great but this Bombers team is much a much different beast to previous years.

 

[go u jimmy b]

Bets placed for the weekend

Cats line +16.5 1.91 - 2.5 units - very good record against Sydney, 9 in a row before the round 23 loss last year, plus start as a bit of insurance as this is a very different Geelong side to previous years

Pies match odds 1.40 - 3 units - Eagles at the MCG 8 from 9, 9 losses in a row to the Pies

Essendon match odds 1.85 - 2 units - Bombers have a horrible record in Perth but I can't overlook 4 forced changes to the Dockers and as I mentioned previously.

Weekend multi

Cats 1-39
Pies 1-39
Don's 1-39
Dogs 1-39
Crows 1-39

81-1 $50

and for a bit of speculator

Cats 1-24
Pies 1-24
Don's 1-24
Dogs 20-39
Crows 1-24

769-1 $15

Happy punting

 

[go u jimmy b]

Correction on above guys

Pies should be 20-39 in last multi

 

[KardiniaPark]

Where on earth did you get +16.5 Geelong?

 

[go u jimmy b]

KP - sorry about that typo, +6.5 CB

 

[Bullfrog5]

Bets placed for the weekend

Cats line +6.5 1.91 - 2.5 units - very good record against Sydney, 9 in a row before the round 23 loss last year, plus start as a bit of insurance as this is a very different Geelong side to previous years

How is the nine-in-a-row relevant? The teams are very different across that journey to now. I had the same discussion on this forum three weeks ago about St.Kilda's good record vs Richmond since 2002, but Richmond turned that history on its head for a win. Nine-in-a-row might be relevant if the teams and talent were the same, but they aren't... on paper Sydney should cover that line given the combination of talent available, recent form, and probably most importantly home ground advantage.

I'm not saying the Cats are poor, far from it. I just think that line is giving them a bit too much credit for last year's flag vs a very good opponent on home turf. 2.5 units is big for a 50-50 chance line bet. Swans 1-39.

 

[Resarenco]

How many tennis players tackle each other?

I would think recovery would take longer from a contested footy slog in the wet with a high tackle count than a 200 point free flowing match under the roof

The scenario never included the wet/rain. Wet weather automatically makes recovery harder. Also you under estimate how hard tennis players hit the ball. They use a lot of effort with each swing.

 

[yamahamoto]

Sydney will win

 

[KardiniaPark]

Geelong will win.