Autopsy Round 2, 2023: Sydney torch Hawthorn

[Blackhawk42]

Based on this I'm guessing we are in for 2 years of bottom 4 at a bare minimum (if we extrapolate our two games to be the norm - I think it's too quick to consider it a trend at this point our next game will give us a lot more information as to what to expect over the next 20 games). Depending on if we can snag in some experienced FA we might be able to have a smoother landing.

Spiraling out of control at the moment but this is probably the season we had to have. Bandaid is well and truly ripped off.

The unfortunate aspect being that it's the longest season on record? We'll have an extra game to sit through and currently that feels daunting.

 

[grumbleguts]

That was so helpful as I could go to the replay without seeing the score, as I’m in the UK that’s fantastic wonder if you could do each week?

Sure, just remind me.

 

[burner1]

Based on this I'm guessing we are in for 2 years of bottom 4 at a bare minimum (if we extrapolate our two games to be the norm - I think it's too quick to consider it a trend at this point our next game will give us a lot more information as to what to expect over the next 20 games). Depending on if we can snag in some experienced FA we might be able to have a smoother landing.

Spiraling out of control at the moment but this is probably the season we had to have. Bandaid is well and truly ripped off.

Yep. Unless we flinch and trade in some experienced players as can’t handle being at bottom the draftees from end of year won’t make a huge difference to 2024 - it will all be development driving any improvement. And good luck getting decent FAs at a reasonable price if outlook looks dire.

Club does seems bit genuinely shocked as to how bad we are which is not a great sign as we would have made list management decisions based on certain assumptions.

 

[grumbleguts]

The unfortunate aspect being that it's the longest season on record? We'll have an extra game to sit through and currently that feels daunting.

Am I the only one who is loving this? Each week I am seeing massive positives among the ones we want to see positives in. Watching us dig our way up from rock bottom is a fabulous thing. It made 2008-2015 all the sweeter, because of 2004.

 

[peetoo]

Am I the only one who is loving this? Each week I am seeing massive positives among the ones we want to see positives in. Watching us dig our way up from rock bottom is a fabulous thing. It made 2008-2015 all the sweeter, because of 2004.

Or grand final week 2008 when everyone and his dog lined up to say hawks were no chance……sweet

 

[Lotus]

Yep. Unless we flinch and trade in some experienced players as can’t handle being at bottom the draftees from end of year won’t make a huge difference to 2024 - it will all be development driving any improvement. And good luck getting decent FAs at a reasonable price if outlook looks dire.

Club does seems bit genuinely shocked as to how bad we are which is not a great sign as we would have made list management decisions based on certain assumptions.

We are all hopeful after the preseason match against Collingwood. Too early to call on a bad or good list management.

 

[Noel Gallagher]

I am far more comfortable with where we are at two rounds in, then where we were 2 rounds in 2017. I was dead set against the topping up as we just didn't have the nucleus of players that we had in 2009. I love what we did last draft period and I love the type of list Sam is trying to shape. The media and everyone else can get stuffed, its pretty easy and gutless kicking us now that we are down. Saw more than enough signs yesterday to see what we are trying to achieve. Just need a few key players to come on DGB, Weddle, Rama, etc. Add in another good draft year (mid year draft included) - Harley Reid + and we are climbing back up the mountain, bring it on I say

 

[tendon]

Am I the only one who is loving this? Each week I am seeing massive positives among the ones we want to see positives in. Watching us dig our way up from rock bottom is a fabulous thing. It made 2008-2015 all the sweeter, because of 2004.

I enjoyed last year definitely – you could see the potential and pretty often, a moment or play where you go ‘yep, things are going in the right direction’

This years been a little tougher, just haven’t seen that same spark from last year over these last two games – Cam MacKenzie def something to get excited about but lots of others seem to have gone backwards on last year.

I do feel that somewhere along the journey this year it will all click, the confidence will be back and then away we go – just not quite there yet but hoping it could be next week. Or if not, the one after etc etc

 

[Iceman!]

Hawthorn has never ever been a club that is happy to finish bottom and take pick 1 and I can’t imagine with Mitchell’s ego he will allow it to happen. We always come home with a couple of “soft wins” late in seasons and end up moving down to pick 4-7 region.

This could be a reality we are facing again.

Is Harley Reid potentially Luke Hodge as some have suggested. If so and the club believes this then we need to get him and whatever top end talent we can find. Second or third last on the ladder or bottom and the spoon and pick 1?

Rob McCartney said watch out for us in the second half of the season in his podcast. Let’s hope if we have our eyes on this kid long term we know what we are doing in the back half of the season.

We moved on the senior coach for the future

We moved on senior players for players of the future

We have cleared out a ton of experience and replaced it with young talent.

The club knew what they were doing with these moves, they were bottoming out. People can keep kidding themselves and saying it 'isn't the Hawthorn way'... It is. We are not tanking on gameday but we are bottoming out to build up again. This team is clearly in the bottom 4 in the league (for this season alone) and very likely to be the worst. I do not see the late season wins coming.

 

[Iceman!]

Realism, sure. Just like Bradkli was being realistic when he said our threepeat just papered over the cracks.

We have bottomed out, that is a list strategy we have taken. The bounce does not tend to happen over night. I expect this year and next year we will likely be bottom 4. After that i think and hope we will start to see some improvements in the win Column.

 

[offtherails9]

A lot of truth in this.
Last 2 weeks when everything is falling a part, Moore is the player letting the younger players (he's young hinself) know what is going wrong, how to improve etc.

Only a small sample size, but feel that Moore may have been a better captaincy choice. Sicily is being exposed because he has to try and lead when he needs to be playing his role.

If this was the NFL, Moore would be the captain (generally the QB but not always), whilst Sicily would be the defensive captain

I always used to be one of those guys who would say 'oh no co-captains is a such a dumb loser club thing to do', especially because we've had so much success with one captain. But the NFL has convinced me that there really is no need to just have one captain at all. Having guys share the role whilst both being honored with the label of captain is a great idea and it's the way I wish the club went with Sicily and Moore. Not that I'm in the rooms with the boys every day but Moorey does seem a lot closer to most of the younger group whilst Sis is probably better friends with guys who have moved on from the club now.

 

[MasterSamurai]

As much as I hated the first two games of the season, I still think we can't be trading away first round picks for trades, FA is fine especially a KPF, this is where we're really la king but the Draft is the way to go. Still think we have a extremely talented midfield group coming through.

 

[mustang]

The midfield has potential to be good in a few years time I agree.

The KPP outside of an injury prone Mitch Lewis are the biggest concern, not sure I've seen a worse spine than the current Hawks spine to begin a season.

The problem is we should have got the talls first which take longer to develop but the time we have a strong midfield our forwards will be still developing the side will have a Western Bulldogs feel about it.

 

[Brant]

The problem is we should have got the talls first which take longer to develop but the time we have a strong midfield our forwards will be still developing the side will have a Western Bulldogs feel about it.

Which of our mids would you give back & for which KPP?

 

[Dipper Here]

Genuinely curious: How do these numbers work?

For example, does ‘against’ mean the D50 stuffed up or does it mean that the opponents scored against us from the opponent’s D50? Or is it something else entirely?

Cheers.

 

[Brant]

Genuinely curious: How do these numbers work?

For example, does ‘against’ mean the D50 stuffed up or does it mean that the opponents scored against us from the opponent’s D50? Or is it something else entirely?

Cheers.

'AGAINST' is the amount scored by the opposition, launched from their D50m.

'FOR' is the amount we scored, launched from our D50m.

That's how I read it.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Genuinely curious: How do these numbers work?

For example, does ‘against’ mean the D50 stuffed up or does it mean that the opponents scored against us from the opponent’s D50? Or is it something else entirely?

Cheers.

Opponents scored against us. The FOR is what we're doing from half back.

 

[smish]

The problem is we should have got the talls first which take longer to develop but the time we have a strong midfield our forwards will be still developing the side will have a Western Bulldogs feel about it.

Bulldogs spine was dreadful that year bar English & Naughton:

A. Keath
Z. Cordy
T. English / S. Martin
A. Naughton
J. Schache

I'd say we could already give those talls a run for their money

 

[hawk for 37]

Looking back at 2 recent bottom outs and rising up the ladder, Melbourne and a finally rising Carlton.
Both recruited high end draft picks for the midfield for years. Think Scully Trengrove, Murphy etc.
Only when May, Lever types were added, plus lucking in a generational ruck in Gawn for Melb, then Weitering, Curnow, McKay and DeKoning were recruited for Blues, did it start to click into place. KP is key.

So…recreating another midfielder in Harley Reid or the best key position player?

We have a already stacked midfield for the future. Until the Hawks get elite in the talls, success will not come.

 

[FB19]

Which of our mids would you give back & for which KPP?

It has been pretty slim pickings since we decided to go to the draft in a meaningful way. I did go back a while ago and look and very little in terms of missed opportunity jumps off the page. 2019 Harrison Jones went at 30 but we didn’t have a pick nearby and in 2021 I said at the time I hoped we traded up and grabbed Jacob Van Rooyen. Last year I hoped Lemmey for a late pick. It’s a huge problem we need to solve this year would like another f1 take Curtin or Archer Reid and McCabe.

 

[Brant]

It has been pretty slim pickings since we decided to go to the draft in a meaningful way. I did go back a while ago and look and very little in terms of missed opportunity jumps off the page. 2019 Harrison Jones went at 30 but we didn’t have a pick nearby and in 2021 I said at the time I hoped we traded up and grabbed Jacob Van Rooyen. Last year I hoped Lemmey for a late pick. It’s a huge problem we need to solve this year would like another f1 take Curtin or Archer Reid and McCabe.

There were a couple of SA KPF that I was hoping we'd look at late in 2022, but then I'm really happy with Hustwaite.

As for high picks, there's none that we 'missed' on by favouring mids.

 

[Lickmesocks]

We moved on the senior coach for the future

We moved on senior players for players of the future

We have cleared out a ton of experience and replaced it with young talent.

The club knew what they were doing with these moves, they were bottoming out. People can keep kidding themselves and saying it 'isn't the Hawthorn way'... It is. We are not tanking on gameday but we are bottoming out to build up again. This team is clearly in the bottom 4 in the league (for this season alone) and very likely to be the worst. I do not see the late season wins coming.

Hmmmm let’s see what plays out.

 

[Gut Runner]

Looking back at 2 recent bottom outs and rising up the ladder, Melbourne and a finally rising Carlton.
Both recruited high end draft picks for the midfield for years. Think Scully Trengrove, Murphy etc.
Only when May, Lever types were added, plus lucking in a generational ruck in Gawn for Melb, then Weitering, Curnow, McKay and DeKoning were recruited for Blues, did it start to click into place. KP is key.

So…recreating another midfielder in Harley Reid or the best key position player?

We have a already stacked midfield for the future. Until the Hawks get elite in the talls, success will not come.

I wouldn't say our midfield is stacked... yet.

Nothing is a given. Yes Ward, Day, Jai and McKenzie look like they will make it. Worpel has found form but still needs to improve a hell of a lot - he is like a Mitch Robertson at the moment. CMAC I was hoping would join the rotations but looks to have stagnated this year (only young still). Even Jai looks off this year.

We need probably 6-7 genuine mids and we don't have that yet. And of that we need 3-4 elite mids to win flags. I'm not sure all of our current crop become elite.

 

[jerry_atrick]

Jerry Atrick - oout of interest who would you like to see as coach?

The question is moot As I said, I am backing Sam at the moment; he will have presented a plan with milestones which would have been accepted. As as he is executing his plan and not materially missing milestones, he is doing well. But, I don't have confidence the playing style is part of the plan, and if it continues, he will likely miss some milestones, and that will bring him under pressure. Carlton has learned keeping a coach that has a plan but can't execute on it for too long kicks the pain can down the road and delays success even further.

When it was decided Clarko should go, just appointing a favourite son, to me, wasn't necessarily the way to go - a thorough search of available coaching talent at the time should have been conducted. Carlton seems to have finally got there. Look at the turnaround at Collingwood once McGuire's protection of Buckley expired with his presidency; and we may well have appointed Ayres instead of Clarko - Ayres may have brough us success, but I don't think too many Hawks supporters are against the choice made with the robust selection process. Sam's appointment didn't seem to have the same quality of selection process around it, but happy to be proven wrong on that one.

At the moment, we are in for a long road to being first in line for GF tickets, and the silveware to come with it. We have some very young talent that has very good propects. We are currently lacking in depth of our senior players to steer the games and mentor the young players. I am settling into a few lean years as the young talent develops and we hopefully retain it.

 

[A Diakos]

Forget the scoreboard. Look at the development of that midfield.

Sam and the footy dept made it clear all summer that this season would not be judged on wins and losses.

they are judged on the manner if losses though