Preview Round 2: Brisbane vs Essendon, 'Gabba, Saturday 01/04/17, 7:25 AEDT

[BrunoV]

I think the main reason is they've barely played together due to injuries so they aren't really on anyone's radar. Martin is a decent ruck who acts like an extra midfielder but he is below the likes of Nic Nat, Gawn and Goldstein. Beams, Rockliff and Zorko are all capable of making the AA squad and are genuine guns but it falls away from there. Bastinac is ok but not spectacular although he played really well last night with 3 goals. Rich is capable of putting in performances of 30+ disposals and 3-4 goals but he does this maybe twice a year if we are lucky? He plays another 10 games that are good to great and than another 10 games in which he is virtually unsighted. Very inconsistent and struggles to break a tag. Robinson and Christensen contribute well but we need them in the forward line(Christensen is out with injury by the way). Mathieson and McCluggage are our most promising young midfielders but they are both out injured at the moment as well.

So whilst I think our midfield can surprise a few people this year if the core of Martin, Beams, Rockliff and Zorko can stay fit, it doesn't bat very deep. I think the midfield battle should be a good one this week. Heppell has returned without missing a beat and Zach Merrett is such a gun. Honestly he is much better than Cripps, Blues fans are kidding themselves. I love Parish and you've got the likes of Watson, Stanton and Zaharakis as well.

I think Fantasia, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Colyer and Green if he plays will be dangerous as I don't think we have the quantity of smaller defenders capable of shutting them down if they get on a roll.

Looking forward to this one. With both our sides winning in Round 1 I think the Gabba will draw a crowd around 28k-30k which creates a really good atmosphere at a ground like the Gabba. It gets really loud. Good luck and hopefully we see no injuries to either side.

Thanks for the insight.

I should say that my post wasn't intended for public (ie non Essendon board) consumption.

Not that I have any problem with sensible input from other fans. I simply feel like a dick having described Brisbane as irrelevant.

It was really a Melbourne centric out of sight out of mind thing.

 

[Macca18]

Our last two trips to the Gabba have been successful ones... but what dismal memories we have of the joint in the decade before that. Don't really want to revisit this again.

The Lions are a great unknown at the moment, much like us. Their first 15 minutes was sensational against the Suns but a fairly mediocre second half. Our second half against the Hawks would've beaten most teams but there were times in the first half where we looked a bottom 4 outfit.

During the current decade we have rarely showed any consistency to win games we are expected to. Only times that come to mind are moments during the first half of the 2011, 2012 & 2013 seasons & during the second half of the 2014 season. 2015 & 2016 (predictably given our depleted team) this was non-existent.

We need to start winning these games consistently if we want to be respected in the football community. Hawthorn was a great win for the club but many (understandably given recent track record) will be expecting us to fall over this weekend. I don't think any of us have any reason to be extra confident until we witness these types of 'expected' wins on a regular basis, especially on the road.

Brisbane are paying $3 in a genuine toss-of-the-coin game. At home and with a new coach, who knows!?

Look forward to the day when as a supporter base we can genuinely look to this sort of fixture with confidence. But we've all been bitten so many times before.

 

[ant555]

Apparently he played poor in the VFL but yeah I would bring him in for a tagging role. From all reports Howlett had a good game so I wont be surprised if he comes in.

He was not poor but he was not one of the better 5 on the day.
He ended up with 18 possessions 1 goal 5 clearances and around 6 or 7 tackles.
At this stage he looks to slow from what i have seen. Have been a fan since day 1 but at the moment he just can't get to the outside and provide any run which all the other mids are doing.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Looks like there's a shedload of rain forecast. Hocking-time...for Langford

 

[bato]

Individual player may not be speedy but our ball movement at stages was tearing through Hawthorn's defence on Saturday night.

Fantasia is at least as quick as Merrett, Colyer has jets, McGrath also has pace to burn.

I think that's a bit like GWS then. Gold Coast I felt were the opposite. Quick individual players that don't always link up with the rest of the side.

If Essendon do what they did against the Hawks, I think it's obvious who'll win the match. Either way it'll be an interesting test for us.

 

[ezard15]

Looks like there's a shedload of rain forecast. Hocking-time...for Langford

Even without rain I wouldn't mind seeing that.

 

[ezard15]

Hocking would be good for a soft tag on one of their midfielders. and to sneak a goal and smash someone.

 

[coastalpipeline]

Observations

Brisbane: Kicked away early against cross town rivals Gold Coast before resisting a late surge by the Suns, ended up winning by an extremely tight 2 points in a game that looked impossible to lose at half time but could have been easily done. Former captain Tom Rockliff collected 37 disposals while Ryan Bastinac kicked 3 goals for the Lions

Essendon: Had a great win against arch enemies Hawthorn, kicking away early before the Hawks pulled them back in the second and early in the third to lead by 20 points at one stage. Essendon rallied to kick 12 of the last 16 goals to come out 25 point victors, captain Dyson Heppell kicking 3 goals amongst 34 disposals with Orazio Fantasia booting 4 goals, while key forwards Joe Daniher and Cale Hooker kicked 3 apiece.

Head to Head (last 5)

Brisbane 2-3 Essendon

Form Guide

Brisbane: 1W, 0L
Essendon: 1W, 0L

Sportsbet odds

Brisbane: $3.06
Essendon: $1.38
Line: 17.5 ($1.92)

Possible sides

Brisbane vs Essendon

B: Kelly - Hartley - Ambrose
F: Bell - Schache - Close
HB: Gleeson - Hurley - Goddard
HF: Rich - Hipwood - Taylor
C: Zaharakis - Watson - Parish
C: Bewick - Zorko - Robinson
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Langford
HB: Mayes - Andrews - Cutler
F: Fantasia - Hooker - McKernan
B: McStay - Gardiner - Robertson
R: Bellchambers - Z Merrett - Heppell
R: Martin - Beams - Rockliff
I: McGrath - Green - Colyer - Stanton
I: Barrett - Keays - Bastinac - Lester

Brisbane defence vs Essendon forward line

Brisbane's defence is one of extreme inexperience. Last year it had the worst goals/inside 50 rate of any club at 31%, 6% above the AFL average. Essendon were last in terms of goals/inside 50 last year forward wise with 19% but were improving in that regard during pre-season, going up to 32%. There are three battles in this forward line that contain interest for the clubs, the main one being between Joe Daniher and Harris Andrews. Last year when these two sides met Daniher got the better of Andrews, booting four goals at Docklands, and will be looking for a repeat performance. The second one will be between Darcy Gardiner trying to curb Cale Hooker's influence whilst giving away 6 cm's in height, a real test for they young key defender. The third will be Orazio Fantasia trying to continue his good form against the Lions after kicking 3 on the previous outing, matched up against Nicholas Robertson.

Midfield/rucks battle

This should be a fairly even contest. Both teams have stars through the midfield and the ability to win clearances but their defensive sides of this coin aren't great. The starting centre square combinations are probably in Essendon's favour slightly, with Jobe Watson, Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppell a little bit better than that of Dayne Beams, Tom Rockliff and Dayne Zorko. It's the depth that will be put to the test. Would you rather the back up trio of Rohan Bewick, Mitch Robinson and Jake Barrett or Essendon's Darcy Parish, Kyle Langford and David Zaharakis? Which outside midfield is better, Brisbane's lead by Daniel Rich, or Essendon's lead by Brendan Goddard? The stats say that Brisbane was better last year and in the pre-season. In terms of the ruck battle, Essendon are probably slightly ahead with Tom Bellchambers being the best tap ruckman of the lot and Shaun McKernan being able to match Stefan Martin around the ground.

Brisbane forward line vs Essendon defence

Brisbane aren't without their forward line issues either, also due to a lack of experience up there, averaging 22% in terms of goals/inside 50 ratio last year, which is very poor. Essendon's defence wasn't too crash hot last year, conceding a goal 27% of the time it entered defensive 50, but it will welcome back the extremely important Michael Hurley. He'll take young gun Josh Schache, who is the next great white hope for the Lions. Michael Hartley had a very good 2016 without much support, as did Patrick Ambrose so expect those two to be able to cover Michael Close and Eric Hipwood respectively without many problems. Lewis Taylor is the prominent small forward for the Lions, expect to see Andrew McGrath attempt to curtail his influence up front.

X-Factor Player

Lewis Taylor. He's a former Rising Star winner but has fallen down the billing in that draft for a little while. His speed and ability to kick goals are very important for the Lions, and needs to have a good season if Brisbane are to improve.

Key stat

Brisbane: Clearances. Their midfield is the best area of the field for them, they need to win this area if they're any chance to win this game. Can Beams, Rockliff et al step up and give Brisbane a chance?

Essendon: Conversion rate. Essendon's forward line has been it's achilles heel for a long time now and they need to right that if they want to improve this season at all.

Tip

This one is pretty straight forward, Essendon may have finished last in 2016 but they've got the returning players back, they probably shade Brisbane in all three areas of the ground. Essendon by 56

And here is the preview from the Brisbane board by snooplions

Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Round 2 Gabba, 2017

Saturday April 01, 6:25pm

Preview

So… at no point before Saturday’s game did I seriously consider that we would be heading into round 2 as winners. Going on previous years performances I fully expected us to head down to the Gold Coast, get towelled up by 60 odd points and then head to the Gabba with our tail between our legs looking at another very long season.

But against the odds, we started 2017 with a confidence building win and now head back to our home ground with the belief that we can spring another upset.

Celebrations after the our round one win over the Suns.

Head to Head

After 27 games, the ledger is all square between the two clubs, with both sides having won 13 each as well as fighting out a draw. Essendon, however, have won three of the past five including the last two played at the Gabba.

The last time the two sides met was round 18, 2016 at Etihad Stadium, in a battle of the cellar-dwellers, the Lions scored a 37 point win over a wasteful and depleted Bomber’s outfit which ultimately handed them the spoon and put it out of reach for us at the same time.

Brisbane 20.8 128 Essendon 12.19 91

Injured Rhys Mathieson was a shining light in the lion's win over the Bomber's last year.


Opposition watch

Dyson Heppell

The Bomber’s new captain had 34 Disposals and kicked three goals in a huge performance after a yearlong ban. For someone that hadn’t played for 566 days he didn’t skip a beat.

Zach Merrett

Merrett was in the top ten for average disposals, uncontested possessions and inside 50’s in 2016 and has started this season on fire. Merrett had 26 disposals by half-time and 37 by full-time. We will need to send a player to him capable of containing his influence in order to get on top in the middle.

Orazio Fantasia

Kicked four goals against the Hawks on the weekend and kicked three goals against us last year. Extremely dangerous around goal and will need to be watched closely. Could see any one of Harwood, Mayes or Gardiner go to him.


Joe Daniher

Daniher kicked four goals against the Lion’s last year and three against the Hawks in round one. Daniel Merrett got the job on him last year and did a reasonable job on him but with his retirement, Harris Andrews is the logical choice. Joe towelled Andrews up in his first year, but following Harris Andrew’s performance on Tom Lynch, he’s almost certain to get the job on Joe.

Josh Green

With Pearce Hanley out of the way, we now move on to another former Lion in Josh Green. He didn’t kick a goal in round one, but did provide two goal assists. Also had a relatively solid JLT Series where he showed defensive pressure that wouldn’t have been unwelcome during his time at the Lions.

"Subway's thatta-way man!"

Prediction

If we play the way we did in the first half against the Suns I think we can be competitive and actually put the Don's on the ropes. The game being played at the Gabba could also be a deciding factor in the result. I can see this game being one of significant momentum swings going off both teams’ round one performance.

A competitive performance here will go a fair way to regaining back the respect of the competition and make those predicting us as wooden spoon certainties change their tune.

Lions by 8

Where on earth can you predict the bears winning by 8 points?
We have way too much fire power up forward.
Solid midfield against solid midfield.
Our backs have 3 times more experience than them clowns.
Bombers by heaps that is more than 50 points.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Where on earth can you predict the bears winning by 8 points?
We have way too much fire power up forward.
Solid midfield against solid midfield.
Our backs have 3 times more experience than them clowns.
Bombers by heaps that is more than 50 points.

Lions supporters notorious for getting over confident after a win. If it's wet than it's anyone's game. If it stays dry we will destroy them

 

[coastalpipeline]

Lions supporters notorious for getting over confident after a win. If it's wet than it's anyone's game. If it stays dry we will destroy them

We have the best coaches in the league to articulate wet weather footy. And for all the brew ha ha its going to stay dry.
Let the beer flow from the German bar to the Gabba.

 

[coastalpipeline]

Gee thanks curator Mitchell

 

[coastalpipeline]

Let's be real here, tonight's game is already over, no Hodge, no S. Mitchell, no Lewis and Cyril will be absolutely blanketed by McGrath.

In not expecting Sitchell nor Lewis to be back anytime soon.

 

[Rack Watts]

There is only room for 1 ruckman in the squad. Collingwood looked really slow because of it.
Team stays the same apart from Green for Begley if injured.

 

[DapperJong]

Looks like there's a shedload of rain forecast. Hocking-time...for Langford

<ENDORSED>

 

[BLA60]

Weather shouldn't be too much of a factor. looks like most of the rainfall will be Thursday, Friday. But this cyclone has been dancing all over the place so who knows. The bigger concern for me will be the pitch. Its rained up here pretty consistently all last week till around Saturday. Id be happy to come out of the game injury free.

Changes wise perhaps Langford out for someone, who though, depends on the style of game we will try to play. But keep the pressure up with these speedy smalls and it will be a fun game to watch raining or not. Looking forward to the Gabba game. Good spots to drink afterwards

***On a side note, i just realised i got seats undercover too

 

[Runk]

Just get the win and all will be well.

 

[Rack Watts]

Howlett in for Green, put him on Rich. We cannot let his left peg go unchecked in the rain.

 

[donlav99]

If it isn't excessively wet, I'd like to see the side stay the same. About time these boys gained a little bit of consistence in their lives/footy. If it is wet, I wouldnt mind seeing Hocking and Howlett come in for the likes of Zaha & Langford. I won't be able to stand seeing Zaka shirking contests in the wet, ill break my tv.

 

[bombreys]

Well he made 4 clangers, three of which were FA. People say he cost 3-4 goals from disposal errors which is blatantly untrue, because if that were the case he'd have 7 clangers instead of the 4.

He also had some pretty important defensive saves the other night (made a block on Puopolo to let Hurley touch that ball on the line, slid and saved another in the third) as well which saved our arses. He took 4 intercept marks IIRC (two in the first quarter, two in the last) and had some pretty important runs through the middle.

Yes, he made some poor mistakes, mostly in the second quarter. However so did many others.

I feel like a lot of people get mixed up here - disposal errors aren't directly marked as a clanger.

For instance, he (Gleeson) kicked one pass across the ground in the third quarter (when he had open options everywhere) - that kick missed the target and was intercepted/spoiled (not marked) by a Hawthorn player, which lead to a goal. So whilst it wasn't a direct 'clanger', his poor decision making cost us a goal, even though nothing shows up on the stat sheet.

I definitely didn't see him take 4 intercept marks - but you could be right there.

Anyway - we won. I'm certainly not going to be upset if/when he plays this week.

I just personally can't see why anyone is praising him for his game, it wasn't his best.

Moving on.

 

[ezard15]

Anyone else concerned about injuries on the Gabba turf?

Do the club get the chance to inspect the ground and make submissions to the league if they have concerns?

 

[Beerfish]

Anyone else concerned about injuries on the Gabba turf?

Do the club get the chance to inspect the ground and make submissions to the league if they have concerns?

Pretty sure Worsfold said OTC last night they would trust the AFL's assessment and weren't concerned with it.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Howlett in for Green, put him on Rich. We cannot let his left peg go unchecked in the rain.

thought green played quite well against hawks

if anyone should be given a spell its langford.

 

[BrunoV]

Howlett in for Green, put him on Rich. We cannot let his left peg go unchecked in the rain.

Good idea. Don't mind having a more defensively minded player given that it's the role that the third small forward is going to be playing anyway.

 

[TheFrenchCut]

Brisbane's performance against the Suns was definitely an improvement on what they consistently did last year. Their defensive setups were much better, they were able to intercept mark (Suns scored two snags from 17 entries in the first quarter) and then their skills in moving the ball were better too.

But it is worth mentioning that the Suns' defence really did not turn up for the first 40-odd minutes of the game. The Lions were moving it quickly and bombing the ball in -- which sometimes was smart because they had a one-on-one -- and for the most part, the Suns weren't working back to help each other out, or were so poor defensively that when they had the numbers it didn't matter anyway.

The Suns won 15 of the first 21 clearances, but they either failed to make the most of it, or the Lions' pressure ensured it would be easier for the defenders to hold up.

If we can harrass the Lions like we did the Hawks, I think we'll be ok. But as some have already said, this sort of game has been a total danger one for us in the past.

 

[Rack Watts]

Good idea. Don't mind having a more defensively minded player given that it's the role that the third small forward is going to be playing anyway.

Plus Howlett is a deadeye at goal, and is really good below his knees.