Preview Round 22 - Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows • Saturday 12 August 2023 • 4:35 PM • The Gabba

[martinson]

I'm thinking with the grinding win to toughen us up and just 3 weeks to go back at the Gabba we only have to look at the ladder to have all the incentive in the world to dominate this game.

 

[Sproj]

Whether it is my preference Dev or Lyons, Matho or Tunstill, I don't really mind, so long as an actual mid is picked.

 

[Section 5]

The last few weeks in AFL land have indicated there are no easy games.

We need to play a more defensive and pressure game against the Crows.
They have worked their way to being the number 1 scoring team in the AFL even though they are in 11th place.
In their last 5 losses they still managed 4 good scores 93, 57, 97, 80 & 87.

 

[martinson]

The last few weeks in AFL land have indicated there are no easy games.

We need to play a more defensive and pressure game against the Crows.
They have worked their way to being the number 1 scoring team in the AFL even though they are in 11th place.
In their last 5 losses they still managed 4 good scores 93, 57, 97, 80 & 87.

The big thing they have going for them is that if they get off the chain and get free carry into their forward line Tex and Forgarty kick straight.

 

[Go the Guts]

Bit of “if my mother had wheels she’d be a bicycle” about this. Every team can do that.

Look at us - lost to the dogs by a couple of points in an absolute scrap, lost to Melbourne by 1 point in a game we really should have won by 5-6 goals easily. Even the loss to you guys, didn’t we kick like 1.9 in a quarter or something ridiculous?

Yep for sure. Don't disagree. Just think it'll be closer than some think.

The big thing they have going for them is that if they get off the chain and get free carry into their forward line Tex and Forgarty kick straight.

Not as much this year. Both players are usually dead eyes but both have missed their fair share of very gettable ones this year, more so than in previous years.

 

[twhowler]

This is an outstanding assessment of the Crows, and spot on.
We have had a 1, 2 and 4 point loss, all games in which we kicked for goal liked under 10's.
Win those and we are 4th. Well done.

Very wary of the crows. They seem to set themselves for big games well. The caveat is they have let a few sides get big early leads - essendon, pies and melb all had 5 goal plus leads before crows pegged them back. Would not want to be doing that again

Obviously inexperienced defence a risk. Fast entries at the gabba would be a nightmare for a bloke playing his first few games. That said our midfield has been well down since late in the geelong game.

Given a win means likely finals a fast start would get the crows going. Reckon this could be a good match but hoping we also realise plenty to play for

 

[MSB ROYS]

Predicted temperature for Saturday is 28 C. Goodbye winter.

 

[Tom14]

Bit of “if my mother had wheels she’d be a bicycle” about this. Every team can do that.

Look at us - lost to the dogs by a couple of points in an absolute scrap, lost to Melbourne by 1 point in a game we really should have won by 5-6 goals easily. Even the loss to you guys, didn’t we kick like 1.9 in a quarter or something ridiculous?

Expected score for round 11 was a 3 point win to the crows, final margin was 25. We missed a heap of chances and they kicked some ludicrous ones (especially in the third quarter after we had dominated territory).

Crows have basically either been incredibly accurate or horrendously inaccurate. Hopefully we get the latter.

 

[Tom14]

Yep for sure. Don't disagree. Just think it'll be closer than some think.



Not as much this year. Both players are usually dead eyes but both have missed their fair share of very gettable ones this year, more so than in previous years.

I don't have data for Fogarty but Tex has been the most accurate goal kicker in the comp compared to expectation:

Straight Walker on path to personal and League highs

Adelaide spearhead is charging towards a career-best goalkicking tally

www.afl.com.au

Walker has kicked 61 goals from 18 games this season, achieving that mark from 94 shots at a conversion rate of 64.89 per cent. Champion Data has subsequently rated the expected accuracy of the veteran's shots this season at 47.98 per cent.

The difference, which stands at +16.9 per cent, is the greatest level of accuracy Champion Data has ever recorded for all players across the League to have had at least 80 shots on goal dating back to 2012.

 

[M Malice]

Boring team selection day today, O in for Fort is all we will see.. I miss the anticipation of a melt thread.

 

[Dalions]

Boring team selection day today, O in for Fort is all we will see.. I miss the anticipation of a melt thread.

Wonder, if there are any concerns with Oscars fitness whether we will go with Fort as the Sub?
Could possibly give Fletcher a rest and give Dev a full game.
Probably doubtful as we do tend to just play players whether they are looking tired or not.

 

[Kevvo]

I’m excited that Oscar should be back. He has shortcomings but he wins a lot of clearances. I’m optimistic we’ll see a corresponding bounce in output from our midfield unit, and I think that’ll put too much pressure on a makeshift crows backline. It should be a good test but I think we are comfortable favourites.

 

[rye]

Boring team selection day today, O in for Fort is all we will see.. I miss the anticipation of a melt thread.

you know what would make it a lot more exciting

IN: Daniel Rich
OUT: Jaxon Prior

dont think its out of the realm of possibility

 

[Dalions]

you know what would make it a lot more exciting

IN: Daniel Rich
OUT: Jaxon Prior

dont think its out of the realm of possibility

We give him a fairwell game against the Saints.

 

[rye]

We give him a fairwell game against the Saints.

rich is arguably the greatest servant of the club on the playing list (perhaps only second to zorko) and i would still be against giving him a farewell game

winning the next 3 games could be imperative to our flag chances, as much as it sucks for rich we do not have time to be sentimental if the best 22 has moved past him

 

[M Malice]

you know what would make it a lot more exciting

IN: Daniel Rich
OUT: Jaxon Prior

dont think its out of the realm of possibility

That would do it.

Richy of a couple of years ago and a few spasmodic good performances since is a better player than Prior... right now though Prior is simply a better player particularly defensively/on transition.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

 

[Jimmy Two Hands]

Does anyone in the know re Gabba matchday stuff know if anythings planned for Matildas game? Live score updates or announcements etc? Just saw the MCG is playing the game before the Blues game.

I'm going to the Gabba Saturday and thinking about going dark for the Tillies and watching a replay.

 

[M Malice]

Does anyone in the know re Gabba matchday stuff know if anythings planned for Matildas game? Live score updates or announcements etc? Just saw the MCG is playing the game before the Blues game.

I'm going to the Gabba Saturday and thinking about going dark for the Tillies and watching a replay.

Been to just about every Lions game at the Gabba for 20 plus years and can not remember other sports scores/results being on the Public address system.

No need to do it, everybody has a computer in their pocket these days if they want other scores.

Also I think it will be hard to avoid the Matilda's score anyway.. some banshee in the crowd will yell it out.

 

[Ad Astra]

I'd encourage people to share their own poems about their favourite players in this thread.

(do limericks count as poems?)

Lions supporters are glum
We’re not, at this stage, number one.
What makes it much sadder,
We’re THIRD ON THE LADDER!!
Stick your sour grapes up your b*m.

 

[Milux]

Surely Lyons gets a run if Neale doesn't get up

 

[Nathan Barley]

Surely Lyons gets a run if Neale doesn't get up

We would definitely need another mid. Lyons plays 70% while Neale plays 90% TOG

 

[M Malice]

Surely Lyons gets a run if Neale doesn't get up

Yep, that would be the only time I would be bringing Lyons back in.. although as NB suggested it will stretch our midfield minutes pretty thin, would need another mid to come in as well to spread the load.

Outs- Fort, Neale, Gunston.

Ins- McInerney, Lyons, Robertson.

 

[Squizz89]

Lachie carrying an injury would certainly explain why he couldn’t pick the ball up last week.

I’d bring Lyons in to replace Neale directly and then also bring Dev in for Fletcher who can cover those extra mid minutes that would be required, as well as time on the wing.

Oscar for Fort pretty simple really.

 

[Nunez]

Weird that there'd be limited training on a short Perth turnaround.