- Mar 12, 2003
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Match Of The Round this weekend comes to the new glamour timeslot of 4:35 Saturday, for the Grand Final rematch between Collingwood and Brisbane. Our second meeting this year, Collingwood have won the last 2 against us after we mopped the floor with them SIX (count em, SIX) times in a row dating back to 2020.
Just by the by, the Saturday twilight timeslot has an interesting history. The AFL originally trialled Saturday 3:40 in 1998, with 9 matches played at Waverley or the MCG. However it was considered spectacularly unsuccessful (even though, looking at the crowd numbers they weren't too bad really) and consigned to history's dustbin. Until 2012 that is, when a rebranded Saturday timeslot of 4:40 re-emerged, before being shifted to 4:35 in 2015, because, well, television.
Even then however, it was considered an afterthought: a way to squeeze in somewhere the games that nobody gives a stuff about. That all changed on 27 April this year though, when more than 87,000 fans crammed into the G to watch Geelong knock off Carlton in one of the games of the year. Suddenly it seems, 4:35 Saturday is the new black, and that's where we find ourselves this weekend.
At stake
Pretty simple equations for both teams, after both imploded to cough up last quarter leads last weekend. We need to win to stay within touching distance of what I expect will be a crucial top 4 berth, while Collingwood need to win to keep their flickering finals chances alive.
Conditions
It looks like Melbourne is turning on its charm this week, with consecutive days of sunshine and 20+ degrees. Steady on you lot, it's only August! That's all expected to change come the weekend unfortunately, with what appears to be a pretty miserable day on Saturday, a maximum of 16 (14 by game time) and the high probability of rain throughout the day, including during the game. On the plus side, the weather is equally miserable in Brisbane at the moment, so our lads would have had an ideal chance to acclimatise at training yesterday.
Teams
As has been the case for a couple of weeks now, the big question mark is around Eric Hipwood. Does he play and where? My gut feel from Fages' comments to the media is that he's unlikely to be right for Saturday, so I'd expect us to go in (gulp) unchanged.
If he is right to go however, he absolutely comes back - the big question is whether it's in the forward line for Henry Smith, or in defence for Darragh Joyce. All things being equal, I'd like to see him come in for Joyce. I think Darragh unfortunately lost me for good with his horror kick from the wing to half forward in the last quarter which got turned over for a goal back the other way. If you can't even nail the basic, long, high kick down the line to a contest, in perfect conditions, you can't be trusted unfortunately.
This then gives us the flexibility to start Hipwood in defence, but knowing he can easily move to the forward line if we find there's no real suitable match up for Eric in defence, or we want that extra tall in our forward line. This is flexibility we have never really had and I think it's an area we would do well to explore and exploit further.
The one caveat to that is the second ruck role. Joe Daniher literally withered on the Sam Taylor vine on Saturday, and we cannot afford a repeat performance from Joe this Saturday, or for the rest of the season for that matter. Yes, he should have the experience, the wherewithal and the gumption to be able to mentally fight through a difficult match up, but if going into the ruck for a period helps him come alive in the game, then I think we need to do this.
Where this leaves Smith is the question. Ideally, we start Smith as the 2nd ruck, but if Joe is struggling to get into the game up forward, we gamble on a forward line spearheaded by Smith and Morris, knowing they are likely to be beaten on experience alone by Moore and Howe, and try and utilise our small forwards however possible.
Elsewhere, surely we make a change for Prior and get a more versatile player to fill the sub role. I'd be bringing Sharp back with Bruce still out, and we probably need to make him the sub. Although I'd be ready to get him in the game far earlier than we usually do, particularly if the game is going against us. Possibly Answerth for Brain if Noah's VFL form warrants elevation.
Collingwood's injury list is looking in reasonable shape, with only De Goey, Mihocheck, Mitchell and maybe Johnson missing from their best 23. With only 1 recognised key forward in McStay, Collingwood are highly likely to roll with Cameron and Cox as a 2 ruck setup, so would definitely prefer Smith to stay in the team if we can make that work. They will likely use their resting ruck in a key forward post, with Howe another option to swing forward, and/or Frampton if they want him to reprise his defensive role on Harris Andrews.
Besides that, they have Hoskin-Elliott currently performing what seems to be role Jacob Townsend filled for Richmond in their 2017 premiership as their secondary forward target, and besides that they're relatively short, reliant on speed and ability to cover ground.
We can expect full 23's and emergencies at 6:20 tomorrow night, with final teams (including the sub) posted 3:35pm Saturday.
Matchups
For me it's Joyce or Hipwood on McStay, knowing we can move Andrews onto him if needed, although not the preferred option. Andrews is likely to be needed to play on their resting ruck when he pushes forward. Other than that, Lester is an ideal match up for Hoskin-Elliott, although he'll also need to spend some time on Long. Their small brigade of McCreery, Elliott, Schultz and Hill loom large though. Starcevich on Hill to me is the obvious one after his Grand Final shenanigans. Apart from that it's 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. Maybe Wilmot on Elliott, Zorko on Schultz, Brain/Answerth on McCreery.
At the other end, probably Moore on Daniher and Frampton on Smith. Howe on Morris. They've chopped and changed a bit with their match up for Cameron recently, but I reckon they'll go with Maynard, with Quaynor the outside chance.
In the middle, Dunkley on N Daicos looks a likely match up there. Not too sure who their current tagging options are with Mitchell injured. Don't know much about Bytel except he used to play for St Kilda. Maybe he spends some time on Neale? Sidebottom locked down on Gulden last Friday night so he may also get a go on Neale in more of an inside role.
Strategy
In ruck, Collingwood have been doing better in hit outs to advantage and gaining first possession from ruck contests. This hasn't translated to clearance domination, and it looks like we should have a considerable edge there. Although that was also the case against the Giants but it certainly did not eventuate after quarter time.
This will be crucial in allowing us to play the game in our front half. We are the #1 scoring team from our front half, while Collingwood give up the 2nd most amount of points from their back half.
Other than that it shapes as being a relatively low-turnover game. Obviously we like to play the kick-mark game, which in truth may be hindered by the weather. Collingwood have also been allowing this to happen however, although for the most part they were able to prevent Sydney from doing this. In any event, we may benefit from shelving this strategy on Saturday. We have been much stronger than Collingwood in recent weeks at winning contests both forward of and behind the ball, so provided we are able to kick to the advantage of our forwards, this should hold us in good stead regardless of the conditions.
Our accuracy is obviously a concern, once again, although in general play this is as much about where we are taking our shots and the pressure we're under. Collingwood have been strong in recent weeks at preventing high percentage shots at goal, so more frustration for fans is in the offing on Saturday.
Defensively, we have been strong at preventing teams from getting it inside 50, and when they have, we've also been good at making their shots relatively difficult, particularly in general play. Our achilles heel remains the ease at which we concede marks inside 50, and more generally, allowing shots at goal when our opposition do go inside 50, although we have shown signs of improvement in these aspects recently.
Other than that, we are still #18 in the comp for conceding points from kick-ins. You would like to think the conditions will make this full ground transition more difficult on Saturday, but Collingwood are strong in this aspect so something to be wary of.
Quarter by quarter
After a week (yep, one) when our last quarters were NOT our worst quarter, they are very much back in the spotlight after a woeful fade out on Saturday. I'd say a good start will be important, but even those haven't saved us a various junctures this season. I almost wonder if a tight start to the game might hold us (particularly our midfield) in a stronger frame of mind, and make it more likely for us to perform closer to our potential for a full four quarters. We can't afford a poor start to the game though to get their crowd up and about.
The Verdict
All the numbers and the depth of the respective midfields point to a dominant performance for us in the guts. Similarly however the numbers also point to a high likelihood that we make a meal of what territorial dominance we have, and allow Collingwood to make the most of our profligacy in front of goal.
Collingwood 17-7 (109)
Brisbane 10-22 (82)
Just by the by, the Saturday twilight timeslot has an interesting history. The AFL originally trialled Saturday 3:40 in 1998, with 9 matches played at Waverley or the MCG. However it was considered spectacularly unsuccessful (even though, looking at the crowd numbers they weren't too bad really) and consigned to history's dustbin. Until 2012 that is, when a rebranded Saturday timeslot of 4:40 re-emerged, before being shifted to 4:35 in 2015, because, well, television.
Even then however, it was considered an afterthought: a way to squeeze in somewhere the games that nobody gives a stuff about. That all changed on 27 April this year though, when more than 87,000 fans crammed into the G to watch Geelong knock off Carlton in one of the games of the year. Suddenly it seems, 4:35 Saturday is the new black, and that's where we find ourselves this weekend.
At stake
Pretty simple equations for both teams, after both imploded to cough up last quarter leads last weekend. We need to win to stay within touching distance of what I expect will be a crucial top 4 berth, while Collingwood need to win to keep their flickering finals chances alive.
Conditions
It looks like Melbourne is turning on its charm this week, with consecutive days of sunshine and 20+ degrees. Steady on you lot, it's only August! That's all expected to change come the weekend unfortunately, with what appears to be a pretty miserable day on Saturday, a maximum of 16 (14 by game time) and the high probability of rain throughout the day, including during the game. On the plus side, the weather is equally miserable in Brisbane at the moment, so our lads would have had an ideal chance to acclimatise at training yesterday.
Teams
As has been the case for a couple of weeks now, the big question mark is around Eric Hipwood. Does he play and where? My gut feel from Fages' comments to the media is that he's unlikely to be right for Saturday, so I'd expect us to go in (gulp) unchanged.
If he is right to go however, he absolutely comes back - the big question is whether it's in the forward line for Henry Smith, or in defence for Darragh Joyce. All things being equal, I'd like to see him come in for Joyce. I think Darragh unfortunately lost me for good with his horror kick from the wing to half forward in the last quarter which got turned over for a goal back the other way. If you can't even nail the basic, long, high kick down the line to a contest, in perfect conditions, you can't be trusted unfortunately.
This then gives us the flexibility to start Hipwood in defence, but knowing he can easily move to the forward line if we find there's no real suitable match up for Eric in defence, or we want that extra tall in our forward line. This is flexibility we have never really had and I think it's an area we would do well to explore and exploit further.
The one caveat to that is the second ruck role. Joe Daniher literally withered on the Sam Taylor vine on Saturday, and we cannot afford a repeat performance from Joe this Saturday, or for the rest of the season for that matter. Yes, he should have the experience, the wherewithal and the gumption to be able to mentally fight through a difficult match up, but if going into the ruck for a period helps him come alive in the game, then I think we need to do this.
Where this leaves Smith is the question. Ideally, we start Smith as the 2nd ruck, but if Joe is struggling to get into the game up forward, we gamble on a forward line spearheaded by Smith and Morris, knowing they are likely to be beaten on experience alone by Moore and Howe, and try and utilise our small forwards however possible.
Elsewhere, surely we make a change for Prior and get a more versatile player to fill the sub role. I'd be bringing Sharp back with Bruce still out, and we probably need to make him the sub. Although I'd be ready to get him in the game far earlier than we usually do, particularly if the game is going against us. Possibly Answerth for Brain if Noah's VFL form warrants elevation.
Collingwood's injury list is looking in reasonable shape, with only De Goey, Mihocheck, Mitchell and maybe Johnson missing from their best 23. With only 1 recognised key forward in McStay, Collingwood are highly likely to roll with Cameron and Cox as a 2 ruck setup, so would definitely prefer Smith to stay in the team if we can make that work. They will likely use their resting ruck in a key forward post, with Howe another option to swing forward, and/or Frampton if they want him to reprise his defensive role on Harris Andrews.
Besides that, they have Hoskin-Elliott currently performing what seems to be role Jacob Townsend filled for Richmond in their 2017 premiership as their secondary forward target, and besides that they're relatively short, reliant on speed and ability to cover ground.
We can expect full 23's and emergencies at 6:20 tomorrow night, with final teams (including the sub) posted 3:35pm Saturday.
Matchups
For me it's Joyce or Hipwood on McStay, knowing we can move Andrews onto him if needed, although not the preferred option. Andrews is likely to be needed to play on their resting ruck when he pushes forward. Other than that, Lester is an ideal match up for Hoskin-Elliott, although he'll also need to spend some time on Long. Their small brigade of McCreery, Elliott, Schultz and Hill loom large though. Starcevich on Hill to me is the obvious one after his Grand Final shenanigans. Apart from that it's 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. Maybe Wilmot on Elliott, Zorko on Schultz, Brain/Answerth on McCreery.
At the other end, probably Moore on Daniher and Frampton on Smith. Howe on Morris. They've chopped and changed a bit with their match up for Cameron recently, but I reckon they'll go with Maynard, with Quaynor the outside chance.
In the middle, Dunkley on N Daicos looks a likely match up there. Not too sure who their current tagging options are with Mitchell injured. Don't know much about Bytel except he used to play for St Kilda. Maybe he spends some time on Neale? Sidebottom locked down on Gulden last Friday night so he may also get a go on Neale in more of an inside role.
Strategy
In ruck, Collingwood have been doing better in hit outs to advantage and gaining first possession from ruck contests. This hasn't translated to clearance domination, and it looks like we should have a considerable edge there. Although that was also the case against the Giants but it certainly did not eventuate after quarter time.
This will be crucial in allowing us to play the game in our front half. We are the #1 scoring team from our front half, while Collingwood give up the 2nd most amount of points from their back half.
Other than that it shapes as being a relatively low-turnover game. Obviously we like to play the kick-mark game, which in truth may be hindered by the weather. Collingwood have also been allowing this to happen however, although for the most part they were able to prevent Sydney from doing this. In any event, we may benefit from shelving this strategy on Saturday. We have been much stronger than Collingwood in recent weeks at winning contests both forward of and behind the ball, so provided we are able to kick to the advantage of our forwards, this should hold us in good stead regardless of the conditions.
Our accuracy is obviously a concern, once again, although in general play this is as much about where we are taking our shots and the pressure we're under. Collingwood have been strong in recent weeks at preventing high percentage shots at goal, so more frustration for fans is in the offing on Saturday.
Defensively, we have been strong at preventing teams from getting it inside 50, and when they have, we've also been good at making their shots relatively difficult, particularly in general play. Our achilles heel remains the ease at which we concede marks inside 50, and more generally, allowing shots at goal when our opposition do go inside 50, although we have shown signs of improvement in these aspects recently.
Other than that, we are still #18 in the comp for conceding points from kick-ins. You would like to think the conditions will make this full ground transition more difficult on Saturday, but Collingwood are strong in this aspect so something to be wary of.
Quarter by quarter
After a week (yep, one) when our last quarters were NOT our worst quarter, they are very much back in the spotlight after a woeful fade out on Saturday. I'd say a good start will be important, but even those haven't saved us a various junctures this season. I almost wonder if a tight start to the game might hold us (particularly our midfield) in a stronger frame of mind, and make it more likely for us to perform closer to our potential for a full four quarters. We can't afford a poor start to the game though to get their crowd up and about.
The Verdict
All the numbers and the depth of the respective midfields point to a dominant performance for us in the guts. Similarly however the numbers also point to a high likelihood that we make a meal of what territorial dominance we have, and allow Collingwood to make the most of our profligacy in front of goal.
Collingwood 17-7 (109)
Brisbane 10-22 (82)
Attachments
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maybe he has a bit of inside knowledge from attending so many training runs.
