Game Day Round 3 - Port vs Melbourne

[Manhattan Bronx]

Was going to start this at 3am when feeding my newborn, but he ended up having a blow out I needed to clean up.

If that's anything to go by, Port by 51.

(Realistically, its going to be a close game. Port by 12.)

 

[davesnothere]

Think we win.

Butters is going to get us over the line.

 

[Buget]

Was going to start this at 3am when feeding my newborn, but he ended up having a blow out I needed to clean up.

If that's anything to go by, Port by 51.

(Realistically, its going to be a close game. Port by 12.)

I was up at 3am feeding my newborn.

Big Footy is always entertaining at 3am….

Port by 30, this Dad to be asleep in front of the TV by 3/4 time.

 

[Ah12]

First true test, thinking we pass it. Port by 23.

 

[PowerBaz]

Great day to be 3 wins from 3 games compared to how a few other teams are going. Bank those early wins.

This is the kind of game where multiple easy misses will cost us so hopefully we kick straight.

 

[Manhattan Bronx]

I was up at 3am feeding my newborn.

Big Footy is always entertaining at 3am….

Port by 30, this Dad to be asleep in front of the TV by 3/4 time.

That's better than me. This mum is normally asleep by half time.
Was especially entertaining reading after last night's game.

 

[Coobk001]

Adelaide Oval Night Game Results	W	L
All Night Games	30	30	50%
Finals	2	4	33%
Vs Top 4	7	11	39%
Vs Top 8	11	22	33%
Vs 5-8	4	11	27%
Vs Bottom 10	19	8	70%
Vs Bottom 4	8	0	100%

Just to fill everyone with optimism before tomorrow night. Let's not forget we have a 39% record of winning these games at night, at AO, against top 4 sides. Even if Melb are only a top 8 side, our record is still only 33%.

If tomorrow is a typical Hinkley performance, there's every chance we walk away losers.

Big, big game ahead.

Posted a reminder of our night game history in the other thread. 33-39% chance we win this. Let's hope it's the 1 in 3 tonight.

Night games, prime time vs top 8 opposition has not been a happy combo for us.

 

[Buget]

That's better than me. This mum is normally asleep by half time.
Was especially entertaining reading after last night's game.

I have a good half time alarm…. It’s relentless….

And I also thought last night’s thread was highly amusing. One of the best threads in some time.

 

[Ralph Lorenz]

I was pretty chuffed to see the line at +13.5 yesterday for Melbourne. Punters have footy insight but no-one except port people have port insight.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

I want to see that campaigner Viney on a leash

He is in pretty good form and I wonder if we will go like for like with a player like Wines.

I am also remembering that he did the dirty on Boaky last year and is probably due a bit of treatment from one of the boys.

 

[TazD]

 

[Young Gun #6]

How have only 2 people mentioned Jones being in over Williams.

If the issue isn’t McEntee and we need a defender to be dropped for a forward, why not Jones?

He’s been comically bad costing multiple goals weeks 1 and 2 and was by far worst on ground in the opening game if excluding McEntee himself.

There’s absolutely zero reason Jones should be being selected ahead of Williams right now.

At least with Hayes we knew it was a cultural/behavioural issue that Ken had with him. What’s the possible justification for what Williams has done when he’s clearly best 18.

He’s probably honestly our smartest ball user by foot. Would take someone a bit slower that’s an elite decision maker, over a quick player that has no skills.

It’s a sad state of affairs knowing Petrocelle, Jayden Hunt

5

Jayden Hunt

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

5.3

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

4star

MG

78.7

1star

D

5.3

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.0

1star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

3star

MG

78.7

1star

D

5.3

2star

K

3.3

2star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

4star

MG

78.7

2star

and other quick players who have no skills would be chosen over Hodge, Pendles etc that are 100% skillful but not super quick, if the players were on Ken’s list.

 

[jdeezy]

Taking my nephew to this one, the list of games he has attended is:

• Port lose Showdown with Jordan Dawson
  12

  Jordan Dawson

  Age

  27

  Ht

  191cm

  Wt

  91kg

  Pos.

  Mid

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  17.0

  4star

  K

  11.4

  4star

  HB

  5.7

  4star

  M

  4.8

  5star

  T

  2.8

  4star

  CL

  0.6

  3star

  D

  15.7

  4star

  K

  10.9

  4star

  HB

  4.9

  3star

  M

  2.9

  3star

  T

  2.0

  3star

  CL

  0.4

  3star

  D

  11.8

  3star

  K

  7.8

  3star

  HB

  4.0

  3star

  M

  5.0

  5star

  T

  3.0

  5star

  CL

  0.6

  3star

  kick after the siren
• Port defeat Essendon in no stakes game in 2022
• Port defeat GWS in no stakes game in 2022
• Port surprise victory over Brisbane to start 2023
• Port get belted in insipid finals display against GWS last year

The form line is hard to read but it seems if he goes to an important match he walks away disappointed, so on that note a Melbourne win is on the cards

 

[Powertron]

No May and a cloud over Lever and Oliver should give us the edge.

If we can open up the game with speed we should win, if it’s a slow slog expect they get us.

 

[Young Gun #6]

The crying about McEntee is reaching comical levels. Did any of you notice how easily Richmond rebounded from our F50 and turned into scores over the weekend? Now imagine what Melb will do to us. This inclusion is absolutely necessary to help curb this. It's not about who gets more touches. Internalise this.

This isn’t a new thing or a thing that McEntee solves..

Teams have been rebounding to the wing with absolute ease for 10+ years.

It’s because we have the most inside 50’s, poor forward structure and a game plan of either wait too long and bomb it into congestion, or go quickly and bomb it to 2 on 1’s instead of hitting players on the lead.

It means our half forwards and mids get caught up the ground too far, don’t spread out far enough and then struggle to apply one on ones for the opposition to exit from the defensive 50.

It’s not a forward pocket who solves the issue of not maning up on a player on the 60-70 metre mark from goal, it’s a game plan issue.

Transition from defensive 50 has always been an issue for us and it’s usually never an outcome either way that a small forward has any impact on. They aren’t there stopping a player getting an uncontested mark from defensive 20 to defensive 60 and then to the wing.

It’s lucky our defensive structure is usually elite to stop it going too far from the wing with success but it has everything to do with gameplan, half forward and mid structure and almost nothing to do with a forward pocket, whose only attribute is occasionally applying some pressure to keep a ball in for a congested ball up or throw in in our pocket.

Not sure I’ve ever seen McEntee solve the problem of easy kicks out of defensive 50.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Melbourne to get out to an early lead of a few goals and hold it until about three quarter time. Port to mount a comeback in Q4 where we dominate the midfield, but Jake Lever

8

Jake Lever

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.6

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.3

3star

MG

242.0

4star

D

9.6

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

3.1

2star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.3

2star

MG

145.4

3star

D

16.0

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

6.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

189.8

4star

takes a billion intercept marks. Port to get to within a goal, but lose by two goals after a late goal from Melbourne on the counterattack in the 29th minute. Ken to say "we'll learn from this" despite us having never learned anything from the last thousand times we've lost a game in the exact same manner. Me to not be watching because I have something better to do tonight.

 

[Young Gun #6]

Great day to be 3 wins from 3 games compared to how a few other teams are going. Bank those early wins.

This is the kind of game where multiple easy misses will cost us so hopefully we kick straight.

It’ll be a showdown of who can kick the most points.

Both us and Melbourne have had horrific conversion rates on goals the last few years.

 

[Marmozet]

They’ll put a lot of work into Butters after his performance against them last year.

 

[Poo Eckert]

Posted a reminder of our night game history in the other thread. 33-39% chance we win this. Let's hope it's the 1 in 3 tonight.

Night games, prime time vs top 8 opposition has not been a happy combo for us.

Well we lost our last two consecutive games in 2023 so tonight would make it 33%

 

[Macca19]

Melbourne by 35

 

[Coobk001]

FWIW, I think we might win, but I'm less than convinced in our early season form and think Melbourne at 2.60 are the best value bet of the weekend given our night game record.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

The giants of Port Adelaide will finally meet the titans of Melbourne, making both appear normal sized

 

[philreich]

A repeat of the second quarter against Richmond spells danger, because Melbourne is much better than Richmond.

 

[RangaInTeal]

Viney milestone… Gawn 3 Votes, Viney 40 touches, Pickett 6 goals…

 

[chiwigi]

FWIW, I think we might win, but I'm less than convinced in our early season form and think Melbourne at 2.60 are the best value bet of the weekend given our night game record.

That’s great odds! Unless there’s something about Melbourne only the bookies know.