It’s All About the Mids
When the draw came out, I had worries about how our midfield would contend in the first 3 rounds: Sydney, Doggies and Cats. On paper it looked like the 3 toughest inside midfield that excelled in winning contested football.
Round 1 – Sydney played as expected and despite us winning the hits out by +49, we lost the clearances by -9, stoppages by -3 and contested possession by -22.
Round 2 – Doggies were a pale shade of the team that pulled down our pants in the 2016 final. We continued to dominate the hit outs +41, we lost the clearances by only -2, drew even on stoppages and won the contested possessions by +26. A pleasing turnaround. The big question coming from Easter Sunday was how bad were the Doggies versus how much better are the Eagles?
Round 3 – what will it tell us? The Dangerwoodlet talk feels rather over hyped. The Cats do have Duncan and Scooter as possible inclusions and added with Guthrie and Kelly, their midfield looks deadly (on paper at least). The problem with the Cats is that they have really glaring holes in their team with the current injuries.
Recent Trends
Since 2014, the trend has been simple. We win in Perth. Cats win in Geelong. In fact the games recently have shown each of us to be bad at the other location despite the fact that both ovals were considered long and skinny. One thing is for certain, we need to start winning at Optus Stadium and making it a fortress. I know of no better time to start that period of domination that Sunday 8th April.
There will be seven factors that will determine the outcome on Sunday
1. Whether West Coast can take advantage of the ruck. We continue to win the hit outs and lose the clearances. The Cats could take us to task unless we rectify this problem. This is the number one key for me. NicNat started to look better in directing the winning hit outs and Lycett needs to get more accurate. Geelong have a weakness in rucking and we need to exploit it.
2. Nullifying Dangerwoodlet at clearances and in contested football. Not an easy task and one that will show us whether we are close or struggling. We have Shuey, Gaff and Yeo (will this be known as Yeogueffy) as our starting 3 to go head to head.
3. Exposing the Geelong lack of tall timber. Geelong have gone all in on midfielders and have a very ordinary group of talls now post recent retirements. Add to the mix the loss of Henderson and Taylor, they look exposed. I expect they will go for both Smith and Stanley to give more height with Blicavs remaining as the sole tall defender. The only relief for Scott is that JK is not available. I expect Lycett to spend more time up forward and his aerial advantage could be significant.
4. Use of the corridor. Geelong will use the corridor and unless we control it, it will be advantage Geelong. We showed pretty poor disposal skills in the opening game so hopefully that was a one off and not a trade mark. Not sure how we get confidence into our players on using the corridor however Jetta and Hurn showed brilliance in their long passing and opening up of the forward line.
5. Can the West Coast leaders show the same determination as they did at Etihad last week? If so, we are back to the spirit of 2015 and the “Time to Hunt”.
6. The Kelly factor. Will we feel happy going best available and selecting another 3rd tall forward that is injured (hello Oscar Allen) or will Tim Kelly make O’Brien look stupid? No more on this other than to say I expect the WCE Big Footy board will go into a serious bitch and melt down if Kelly continues his current form and we lose.
7. The referee count – Dangerfield and Selwood are probably the most protected duo in the AFL and we need the Roar of Affirmation to be at its best to ensure the umpires do not fall into the trap of awarding them soft free kicks.
Ins and Outs
Too early to know but I am expecting a pretty much unchanged Eagles line up (possibly Hutchings in for Nelson). Not much to get excited about with East Perth being such as shambles. Hopefully Cole, Parto and Ainsworth will start applying pressure for spots and Brander will start getting some better supply to allow him time and opportunity to develop his craft.
Geelong are coming off a short break and I expect Scooter and Duncan to be inclusions with Smith to be a second ruck.
Prediction
West Coast by 12 – time to dine on some dead cat.
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