Preview Round 9 2020, Essendon vs Brisbane Lions, Metricon Stadium, Friday 31st July

[seanthelion]

Last time they met: Round 4 2019, Essendon 17.10.112 def Brisbane 9.11.65.

Last Lions win against Essendon: Round 15 2017, Brisbane 13.12.90 def Essendon 11.16.82




What a time to make your preview debut, in the middle of a pandemic, Queensland is AFL heartland, and tonight is the start of 20 straight days of footy, or as has been dubbed in the media, the 'festival of injuries footy'.

The next few weeks will be particularly difficult to navigate for us given the consecutive 4 day breaks, but it will be interesting to see the club's strategy over this period. Do we rest players? If so who? Do we just go full throttle and put out the best 22 (injuries and suspension permitting) every week? But it seems with injuries to Rich, Lester and A.Smith, along with McStay's suspension, our hand has been forced somewhat.

THE SEASON SO FAR:

Lions: 6 wins, 2 losses. We have shown that 2019 was not a fluke, and have played some very exciting fast football, using the corridor more than last year and generating many shots on goal especially from stoppages. Goal kicking accuracy has been a problem though, as it has kept the opposition in the game, and in the case of Geelong, lost us the game when the momentum swung.

Essendon: 5 wins, 2 losses, 1 game in hand. The Bombers continue to set up attacks using speed off half back. Their biggest issue is injuries with some first choice players unavailable for the foreseeable future.

LAST WEEK:

Lions: We managed to hold off a fast finishing Demons outfit by 4 points. Neale was again immense, Lyons stepped up, Cameron kicked 2 goals, and Bailey continued his fantastic season. Melbourne had many chances to win, we also had opportunities to put the game away, but ultimately the lions were the beneficiary of the opposition's inaccuracy.

Essendon: The bombers survived a massive scare from the winless Adelaide Crows, prevailing by just 3 points. Merrett, McGrath, and Langford with 2 goals were among their best. Like Melbourne, Adelaide had several chances to steal the lead late in the 4th, but couldn't convert.

THE MEDICAL ROOM:

Sobering news for both clubs:
The Lions will be without Rich, Lester and Archie Smith, while McStay is suspended. Stefan Martin is listed as 6-8 weeks. Meanwhile at Essendon, on top of not having Stringer, Daniher and captain Heppell, Hooker, Laverde, Fantasia and Ambrose will not be playing, and Langford is suspended. They do get Shiel back from suspension though.

SO WHO DO WE BRING IN?

First of all, who backs up Oscar in the ruck with Martin and Smith out? Perhaps it is time to give Ballenden a debut, being the only other uninjured ruck on the list. I hear he is a pretty good field kick too. Witherden in for Rich, as next cab off the rank. Skinner in for McStay? He aggressive and could crash a pack or two and make a contest. And to replace Lester, I'd be giving Answerth another go, as a stopper to quell the influence of McDonald-Tipungwuti. Some have mentioned, 5 changes is a lot, so Tom Berry might stay on that basis. But if we do drop Berry Jnr, I'd be putting Ellis-Yolman back in, or even Robertson. But I think save CEY for the Richmond and Bulldogs games where we need him more. I say keep Berry Jnr for one more match, but he'll want to get his hands on the ball a bit more.

SO WHO WINS AND BY HOW MUCH?

With how this season is panning out, your guess is as good as mine. The midfield as always needs to fire, and I would back Neale, Lyons, McCluggage et al. to at least break even against Zaharakis, Merrett, Shiel et al. Putting pressure on the Essendon when they are coming out of our forward line and locking it in is a must. We don't want Saad doing as he pleases. This will ensure more chances to score from forward 50 stoppages, in the absence of a mark inside 50. Of course it's not just Cameron, Hipwood and Skinner, as any of Zorko, Rayner, Bailey, Neale, or McCluggage can sneak forward at a stoppage for a goal. As for down back, keeping McDonald-Tipungwuti quiet is a must. Hope Answerth and perhaps Starcevich collectively can do the job. Finally in the ruck, Big O and Ballenden going against McKernan and Bellchambers should be quite evenly matched as well.

This will be a test of depth for both sides, and should be the start of an interesting next few rounds. If we keep the forward and midfield pressure up and kick straight, we'll win by 15 points.

 

[FLVanLandingham]

47pt win, The Big O and McCarthy to kick 4 each, Rayner with mark of the year. 3 Essendon defenders ping their hammies chasing Charles.

 

[jjami15]

Uncles, uncles, uncles!!

 

[3KZ is Football]

I think we will need to review our small and medium fwds roles and how our mids push up and lock the ball in since we are going to persist with Hipwood and can't not have Mcstay in if available, and also aren't likely to change their roles. Hipwood can't really do much with just wait until he improves and Mcstay particularly up the ground is important. I think we'll still structure up to create fwd stoppages but as we want to keep opponents guessing and create multiple options to goal may be able to get that new player to work in and offer a little more of a potent threat as a deeper fwd option.

Edit: If we start managing Birchall and Rich is out think we will be less inclined to look for, or less successful in moving the ball through the corridor and will move it up the boundary much more again. That being said with Charlie and Mcstay pushing up the ground Witho/Answerth should hopefully hit them up more, and Bailey/Starc and our MF are also more able to rebound with dare this year, so having a deeper option along with Hipwood roaming could work quite well and they wouldn't be getting in the way of Mcstay and vice versa

What an intelligent and worthwhile post. The point that many of us have been making, which is one echoed by the ABC Commentary Team post match last weekend, is that the forward set up as it stands is “sub optimal” and needs adjustment. As you point out, we need multiple avenues to goal and a meaningful deep, tall option. At this stage our goal kicking avenues are Charlie Cameron and a range of smalls and mids who are relied upon to chip in with goals and get us over the line each week. This is not sustainable and good teams, especially in finals will expose us. McStay and Hipwood are low possession and low scoring players and we have them at Full Forward and Centre Half Forward respectively. McStay hasn’t kicked a goal in his last three games and Hipwood has kicked 3 goals in his last three games. That is a THREE GOAL combined return in three games from our Full Forward and Centre Half Forward. People can talk about “roles” and “game plans” all they like, but that is just not good enough. Anyone who understands football knows this to be true and you can be guaranteed Fagan will be fixing this in the very near future.

 

[jackess]

Too reliant on Charlie or not reliant enough?

 

[Nunez]

Too reliant on Charlie or not reliant enough?

I think we've got the balance right, especially compared to last year. We've got the most shots at goal - if we start converting 10% better than we are in a very good place.

 

[X AE A12]

What an intelligent and worthwhile post. The point that many of us have been making, which is one echoed by the ABC Commentary Team post match last weekend, is that the forward set up as it stands is “sub optimal” and needs adjustment. As you point out, we need multiple avenues to goal and a meaningful deep, tall option. At this stage our goal kicking avenues are Charlie Cameron and a range of smalls and mids who are relied upon to chip in with goals and get us over the line each week. This is not sustainable and good teams, especially in finals will expose us. McStay and Hipwood are low possession and low scoring players and we have them at Full Forward and Centre Half Forward respectively. McStay hasn’t kicked a goal in his last three games and Hipwood has kicked 3 goals in his last three games. That is a THREE GOAL combined return in three games from our Full Forward and Centre Half Forward. People can talk about “roles” and “game plans” all they like, but that is just not good enough. Anyone who understands football knows this to be true and you can be guaranteed Fagan will be fixing this in the very near future.

I think the main issue with having McStay, Hipwood and another deeper fwd option will be the impact to our defensive fwd pressure as a result of taking out say Terry. This is what I think needs to be addressed by reviewing our small and medium fwds and how we 'cover it' with our MF press. Hipwood has almost zero impact on locking the ball in and gets pushed out if the way when it's coming in and is the weakest link for me, McStay is a lock due to his overall influence. Hipwood needs to have more of an impact as well as anyone coming in as a deeper fwd for us to improve as otherwise it's just papering over his lack of potency at the moment

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

People amuse me when they talk about our forward pressure as if it is the raison d'etre for forwards. Forwards are there to score goals. I think people bang on about McStay applying forward pressure because that's about all he can do. Look at last week carefully and you will see he had the 'fumbles' badly dropping several simple marks. Event the "match winning" one he only just held onto.

His set-shop kicking for goal from 20 to 40 yards out is terrible. I will hazard a guess that he has missed 8 of his last ten of these sorts of shots. To put this into stark relief imagine if we were 3 points down when he had to take that shot!!?? Who would back him to kick it? My grand father, bookie, would be giving good odds on a miss.

We are nearly in a premiership window and I think we only lack one component!!!

 

[Nunez]

I genuinely love that we're the highest scoring team two years in a row but apparently our forwards suck

 

[X AE A12]

People amuse me when they talk about our forward pressure as if it is the raison d'etre for forwards. Forwards are there to score goals. I think people bang on about McStay applying forward pressure because that's about all he can do. Look at last week carefully and you will see he had the 'fumbles' badly dropping several simple marks. Event the "match winning" one he only just held onto.

His set-shop kicking for goal from 20 to 40 yards out is terrible. I will hazard a guess that he has missed 8 of his last ten of these sorts of shots. To put this into stark relief imagine if we were 3 points down when he had to take that shot!!?? Who would back him to kick it? My grand father, bookie, would be giving good odds on a miss.

We are nearly in a premiership window and I think we only lack one component!!!

He is important link in scoring chains with field marking though, just doesn't impact up fwd

I genuinely love that we're the highest scoring team two years in a row but apparently our forwards suck

As I've posted recently, posters such as yourself seem to take any discussion of fwd line dynamics as "they suck, drop them" which is pretty clearly not the points being put fwd

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

People amuse me when they talk about our forward pressure as if it is the raison d'etre for forwards. Forwards are there to score goals. I think people bang on about McStay applying forward pressure because that's about all he can do. Look at last week carefully and you will see he had the 'fumbles' badly dropping several simple marks. Event the "match winning" one he only just held onto.

His set-shop kicking for goal from 20 to 40 yards out is terrible. I will hazard a guess that he has missed 8 of his last ten of these sorts of shots. To put this into stark relief imagine if we were 3 points down when he had to take that shot!!?? Who would back him to kick it? My grand father, bookie, would be giving good odds on a miss.

We are nearly in a premiership window and I think we only lack one component!!!

I have a counter view and like Dan in our team.

 

[DashinD]

What an intelligent and worthwhile post. The point that many of us have been making, which is one echoed by the ABC Commentary Team post match last weekend, is that the forward set up as it stands is “sub optimal” and needs adjustment. As you point out, we need multiple avenues to goal and a meaningful deep, tall option. At this stage our goal kicking avenues are Charlie Cameron and a range of smalls and mids who are relied upon to chip in with goals and get us over the line each week. This is not sustainable and good teams, especially in finals will expose us. McStay and Hipwood are low possession and low scoring players and we have them at Full Forward and Centre Half Forward respectively. McStay hasn’t kicked a goal in his last three games and Hipwood has kicked 3 goals in his last three games. That is a THREE GOAL combined return in three games from our Full Forward and Centre Half Forward. People can talk about “roles” and “game plans” all they like, but that is just not good enough. Anyone who understands football knows this to be true and you can be guaranteed Fagan will be fixing this in the very near future.

 

[Nunez]

He is important link in scoring chains with field marking though, just doesn't impact up fwd
As I've posted recently, posters such as yourself seem to take any discussion of fwd line dynamics as "they suck, drop them" which is pretty clearly not the points being put fwd

By you maybe not, but it's certainly the point made by some others.

 

[jackess]

Would just like to remind some posters that we're the highest scoring team this season

 

[Nunez]

Would just like to remind some posters that we're the highest scoring team this season

Two seasons in a row too.

 

[X AE A12]

By you maybe not, but it's certainly the point made by some others.

Feel a bit guilty for bringing it up again but 3Kz original post that I was responding to was "What do we do selection wise if McStay’s replacement kicks 5 or 6 goals during his suspension?".

I'm just pumped we are half decent again and no doubt will make the best of the depth we have during this period and beyond, and will upgrade as best we can across our team during the trade and draft period. I'm grateful were heading in the right direction and know we are looking to optimise ourselves each week

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

If McStay's replacement doesn't score a bag in his absence and we lose both games, does that mean people shut up about him? Nah.

 

[3KZ is Football]

If McStay's replacement doesn't score a bag in his absence and we lose both games, does that mean people shut up about him? Nah.

Just look out for the post at half time against Essendon where I bag him for being “unsighted” in the first half.

 

[3KZ is Football]

People amuse me when they talk about our forward pressure as if it is the raison d'etre for forwards. Forwards are there to score goals. I think people bang on about McStay applying forward pressure because that's about all he can do. Look at last week carefully and you will see he had the 'fumbles' badly dropping several simple marks. Event the "match winning" one he only just held onto.

His set-shop kicking for goal from 20 to 40 yards out is terrible. I will hazard a guess that he has missed 8 of his last ten of these sorts of shots. To put this into stark relief imagine if we were 3 points down when he had to take that shot!!?? Who would back him to kick it? My grand father, bookie, would be giving good odds on a miss.

We are nearly in a premiership window and I think we only lack one component!!!

Another intelligent student of the game.

 

[dlanod]

Just look out for the post at half time against Essendon where I bag him for being “unsighted” in the first half.

The telecast will flash up a shot of him in the stands just to ruin it for you.

 

[3KZ is Football]

If McStay's replacement doesn't score a bag in his absence and we lose both games, does that mean people shut up about him? Nah.

No we give him 2 seasons to come good.

 

[harvester]

Unfortunately working Friday night. But really looking forward to this game. It's been a few years since we have had a number of changes, so excited to see how the team goes.
Saying that , I think Lions will be too strong.
Lions by 24 points

 

[Sherrinator]

What an intelligent and worthwhile post. The point that many of us have been making, which is one echoed by the ABC Commentary Team post match last weekend, is that the forward set up as it stands is “sub optimal” and needs adjustment. As you point out, we need multiple avenues to goal and a meaningful deep, tall option. At this stage our goal kicking avenues are Charlie Cameron and a range of smalls and mids who are relied upon to chip in with goals and get us over the line each week. This is not sustainable and good teams, especially in finals will expose us. McStay and Hipwood are low possession and low scoring players and we have them at Full Forward and Centre Half Forward respectively. McStay hasn’t kicked a goal in his last three games and Hipwood has kicked 3 goals in his last three games. That is a THREE GOAL combined return in three games from our Full Forward and Centre Half Forward. People can talk about “roles” and “game plans” all they like, but that is just not good enough. Anyone who understands football knows this to be true and you can be guaranteed Fagan will be fixing this in the very near future.

You need to be looking at scoring shots between them. They keep missing but are definitely providing enough to be formidable, in theory.

 

[jackess]

Unless Skinner and Ballenden both have huge games McStay will probably come in for either one of them anyway

 

[Jivlain]

I genuinely love that we're the highest scoring team two years in a row but apparently our forwards suck

In fairness our midfielders do kick a lot of goals. And also behinds.