Round 9 Trades

[swanton]

So sick of Waters in the 3 weeks i've had him he has given me 76 points in 3 weeks,
and out again this week

BYE BYE Waters
Worst trade of the year

 

[FlowersByIrene]

If you get it wrong?

In the rookies I started with Kane Mitchell, Tom Lee, Daniel Currie & Scott Lycett, Premiums misses were Dayne Beams, Jarryd Roughead and Dayne Zorko.

I don't have Swan, but he'd be a premium miss, averaging 21 down on your price is horrendous.

Midpricers I was more successful with, Boak, Moloney, Kennedy, Goldstein, Karnezis.

But that's not the point here, Swan was not a great pick, yes it can be made to look better by talking down the opportunity cost, but in itself it was a poor pick and use of resources.

Well I 100% dissagree

 

[TurtleKid]

Well I 100% dissagree

I agree with FlowersByIrene. Swan is a DT lock from the start. Although everyone's opinion is biased by who does or doesn't have him.
Lets hope swanny smashes out a couple of 170s and we can all enjoy reading the vent thread with teams who don't have him

 

[TurtleKid]

There is no relevance in a hypothetical. "If Swan averaged the same he would have lost cash", fact is he has lost 117k already. You're telling me you knew Swan would lose cash due to the magic number, yet you still opted to start with him? You're telling me it was correct to invest in an asset that I know will depreciate?

Ablett has lost $57k. Is he a bad pick as well?

 

[Premiumtrim]

Ablett has lost $57k. Is he a bad pick as well?

Let's not get silly here. As the fella before stated, most premiums were destined to fall. It's quite obvious that Ablett has been better than Swan this year due to a cheaper price and higher average.

 

[Premiumtrim]

What do people think would be the best choice of O'Meara, Hodge or Priddis to trade for Watson?

Tough one, I would say it depends on your bye structure. Do you not have many R13 midfielders?

 

[Premiumtrim]

Naitanui or Stokes?

 

[terribleflowers]

if you could go back in time and choose your starting team it wouldn't contain swan, but that doesn't mean picking swan was a "mistake" as the reasons for him scoring slightly lower than would be expected couldn't be predicted at the start of the year (beams still not playing halfway thru the season/daisy barely playing -> collingwood underperforming -> when swan goes forward he doesn't score as much, collingwood haven't really smashed anyone this year, etc)

so you're both right. if you could time travel you wouldn't pick him in your starting team but picking him at the time was fine

 

[TurtleKid]

Naitanui or Stokes?

Based on a stock market approach with the aim of appreciating an asset. It'll be naitanui.
Plus he gives you the option of switching Cox out of the ruck if the eagles decide to rest him

 

[TurtleKid]

if you could go back in time and choose your starting team it wouldn't contain swan, but that doesn't mean picking swan was a "mistake" as the reasons for him scoring slightly lower than would be expected couldn't be predicted at the start of the year (beams still not playing halfway thru the season/daisy barely playing -> collingwood underperforming -> when swan goes forward he doesn't score as much, collingwood haven't really smashed anyone this year, etc)

so you're both right. if you could time travel you wouldn't pick him in your starting team but picking him at the time was fine

Well, I've travelled forward in time and I can tell you he scores 170 this weekend

 

[Forward Press]

He returned for one game and needs a rest? tough man my rectum

Injury-prone integral part of team has game time carefully managed leading to being rested for a game against GWS.

More news at 11.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Hartlett, Terlich or Goodes for Thurlow
Evans for Watson/Murphy

What do I do?

 

[lmach]

Stevenson out is good because it means I can go Heath > Thurlow without losing any cash.

 

[Falchoon]

if you could go back in time and choose your starting team it wouldn't contain swan, but that doesn't mean picking swan was a "mistake" as the reasons for him scoring slightly lower than would be expected couldn't be predicted at the start of the year (beams still not playing halfway thru the season/daisy barely playing -> collingwood underperforming -> when swan goes forward he doesn't score as much, collingwood haven't really smashed anyone this year, etc)

so you're both right. if you could time travel you wouldn't pick him in your starting team but picking him at the time was fine

I don't necessarily agree with that

DreamTeam




Picture 3 is putting that data into moving averages that tie in with DT price changes, ie the 3 week rolling average, teams with multiple weeks of green you should be jumping on and multiple reds off and check the big numbers around both GEE and HAW around bye time.

I wouldn't necessarily use this to pick a team, but it's definitely advantageous for picking individual players, and bear in mind that it's purely based on last year, there are no expectations built in

ie Swan v Ablett

Swan (Collingwood) has a nightmare start, the Pies are basically in the red from rounds 1-9,

Home    Away    Score
COL1    NTH1    -19
COL2    CAR2    -62
COL3    HAW3    -99
COL4    RIC4    -59
COL5    ESS5    23
COL6    STK6    -28
COL7    FRE7    -19
COL8    GEE8    -62
COL9    SYD9    -13

whilst Ablett (GC) has a reasonable first 8 rounds

Home    Away    Score
GCS1    STK1    -28
GCS2    SYD2    -13
GCS3    BRL3    19
GCS4    PTA4    9
GCS5    GWS5    149
GCS6    FRE6    -19
GCS7    MEL7    88
GCS8    WBD8    70

Matt Boyd's first few rounds are nightmarish, Jobe Watson's are not

ESS    WBD
 
-36    19
88    -19
-19    -59
-28    -36
10    -62
149    -105
-62    -19

West Coast have a great run into the bye, North have a great run post bye.

NTH    WCE
 
10    -19
-62    -99
-13    88
19    -62
-99    9
9    70
70    19
-105    -19
-36    149
-28    -59
134    -28
 
-19    -99
149    23
-59    -36
19    -19
-62    -13
88    70
-62    134
-36    23
23    -62
-99    10
10    -36

 

[VSTone]

So sick of Waters in the 3 weeks i've had him he has given me 76 points in 3 weeks,
and out again this week

BYE BYE Waters
Worst trade of the year

arrrgh indeed... hello 2x abletts

 

[Byron_Clanger]

So sick of Waters in the 3 weeks i've had him he has given me 76 points in 3 weeks,
and out again this week

BYE BYE Waters
Worst trade of the year

I remember there was a topic at the start of the year of who you'd take out of Birchall and Waters, I said Birchall for this very reason, Beau's body is so unreliable it borderline laughable, I love the guy but I'd never pick him in form of Fantasy footy

 

[54Dogs]

Interesting discussion re: Swan, good to see some quality discussion on the board.

Falchoon's point re: draw is relevant this year with rule changes and was discussed in depth pre-season. Essentially there is no such thing as a keepers in your side anymore, everyone can be traded. The reason Swan / Gaz have had value in previous years is that despite the almost certain decrease in price they

1) Saved a trade as a certain top 3 mid and
2) Offset the lost cash through extra points gained as a better skipper.

This year with the value of a trade reduced dramatically the only reason Swan would be value in your starting lineup is as a set / forget skipper who could average 125+. Priced over 130 everyone knew he would not hold, but if he could be steady around 125 and be 5+ points clear of the field he was a good pick. He hasn't been able to do this so the pick in my eyes has underperformed. I have him, it's not a train wreck but not what I hoped. Going back in time if I was told swan would be where he is today I would not have selected him.

There's multiple other variables which go into selecting high end premiums, not the least of which knowing they'll be in your end game so if you take them from the start you have a wider range of value selections to choose from, rather than being forced to chase the 1-2 high end players you didn't start with. IE: If I start with Swallow / SSelwwod, and it's round 6, do I go after Swan I know I must have or down to Priddis to rail ramp for 3-4 weeks through a good draw? Plus getting to Swan early enough is key because invariably he will punch out a big number and you want to be on board. Plus potentailly an extra downgrade to be able to afford him early enough as he drops quite slowly due to zero sub 90 games in the last 2 seasons.

It's certainly not as clear cut as previous years and I think the rule changes have really opened up a lot of different ways to approach it which they wouldn't have in previous years.

 

[Scotland]

Waters -> Thurlow
Mayes -> Watson

Cash in the bank for next week and rage at Waters dissipated.

 

[JDWCE]

quality post 54Dogs

 

[Jcpdragonx]

just had a quick look at the bye rounds. realized i have a full midfield for the first 2 weeks then 6 on the pine in R13...

 

[ashley12]

so much results oriented in this thread

 

[TurtleKid]

Any love for Jimmy Webster? On the bubble and Watters seems to like him

 

[Mordecai]

Who should I choose out of cloke, roughead, stokes, robinson, natanui, franklin or zorko?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Wanted to jump on Jobe this week but if somebody like SJ was a late out I'd have copped a zero; needed to cover my ass in the forward line.

Stevenson -> Thurlow
Rowe -> Stokes

 

[LanLion]

All week and last week, was set on Jobe now, he has bottomed out.
But even though he's smashed the last 2 weeks, I just have a gut feeling he won't go so well against the Tigers. The last couple years he's been slightly under a ton, which is not bad, but it also means that I can afford to wait given my doubts, he won't rise too much and I can get a Hawk in this week.

Thought long and hard about Priddis, who most certainly is undervalued. But for me he is not a keeper as I already have Moloney doing exactly what Priddis is going to do ie. be around a 90avg stepping stone while making about 100k.

Viney (FINALLLY) > Thurlow
Mayes > Roughead

Next week
Neade > Staker, Colquhoun (I really hope not tho, Port rookie argghh!)
Moloney/O'Meara (going shootout this week) > Mid premo. Watson (bye structure be damned LOL), Mitchell, maybe a smokey in Hannebery, or Jack.