Samantha Murphy Ballarat * Patrick Orren Stephenson Charged With Murder

[Kurve]

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The Murder of Rebecca Young - Ballarat

The Murder of Hannah McGuire - Ballarat * Lachie Young

17

Lachie Young

Age

25

Ht

189cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.5

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

220.3

3star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.5

2star

HB

3.5

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

3star

MG

210.0

3star

D

11.2

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

4star

MG

219.6

4star

charged



Allegedly

 

[mrskafoops]

Well until/unless we know the method of her death, it is just conjecture. It could equally be that he was a member of a gang who dare each other to attack loan running females in the forest and this one has ended in the death of the woman. Or maybe he mowed her down with his motorbike (he is known to ride in army gear). Or any number of other actions.

Oh man, go back and read all the posts.

 

[mrskafoops]

There is no evidence he is going to do 'it' again (whatever 'it'is), or that he has done 'it' before. We don't even know what 'it' is, or what evidence there is that he has done 'it'.

Anything else (fantasies, mental problems, ...) is pure speculation.

It is more important to find out exactly what happened, why, and where Samantha is first, before speculating about other possibilities.

 

[mrskafoops]

That’s an interesting point about him wearing army gear.

I thought the witness neighbour said he rode a motorbike AND wore army gear, not at the same time.

 

[thumbs_up]

That is inappropriate use of statistics, sorry.

You may be shocked to learn this but statistics have been used, for many decades now, to predict things. Hell, they've built models of prediction out of them which are incredibly accurate.

 

[Lady O]

Oh man, go back and read all the posts.

Oh man, where does it say what happened?

 

[thumbs_up]

You cannot use any statistics to determine the guilt or innocence of the accused in this case. That is something for a court to decide.

Agreed, though I'm not sure anyone was using stats to determine guilt, just to try and build a profile of characteristics of the alleged perp.

Better to use stats than just pulling rabbits out of the hat in my opinion.

 

[peasantbruh69]

I thought the witness neighbour said he rode a motorbike AND wore army gear, not at the same time.

Why was he wearing army gear? Was he in the army?

 

[Angus Young]

There was a case of a guy in sydney who used to hang out in the bush in camo gear and take shots at random people walking and running with his professional hunting arrow. He killed a few people.

Maybe we have a Rambo on our hands.

 

[yodellinhank]

You may be shocked to learn this but statistics have been used, for many decades now, to predict things. Hell, they've built models of prediction out of them which are incredibly accurate.

So the husband did do it?

 

[Lepube]

Have you withered Lepube ? Is that why we haven't seen you for the last few pages????

 

[Lepube]

Why was he wearing army gear? Was he in the army?

The only relation to POS and army gear I have found is from a news interview with the number who just randomly dropped a comment saying he saw POS occasionally with his motorbike and wear army gear.

 

[thumbs_up]

So the husband did do it?

Nope. Beautiful example of using stats out of context. As I've said in previous posts, stats show us that younger men typically kill unknown victims.

 

[31550]

You may be shocked to learn this but statistics have been used, for many decades now, to predict things. Hell, they've built models of prediction out of them which are incredibly accurate.

Yes of course. I was commenting on your specific conclusion drawn from statistics, which was logically flawed. It's like saying 25% of the worlds population is Indian, so if you have 4 children, one will be Indian.

How about developing a working hypothesis which requires no assumptions or extrapolation or interpolation of data? Work with what we know for a fact:

Accused was out partying, doing drugs - this is known from eyewitness accounts.
Accused phone pings would place him at Mt Clear at ~8am while still drug-affected.
SM's phone pings and Apple watch data show her at same location, same time, at which time she stops moving.
Both phones continue pinging for some time, enabling movements to be tracked by police.

Police have enough data to prove accused was in control of a vehicle while under influence of drugs. There is a legal precedent for a murder charge in that alone. This is enough prima facie evidence to charge him with murder, given they can prove his vehicle was in the same location as SM when she stopped moving, and then both phones moved together. That is all they need for a case. It's not a 'hit-and-run' because he stopped and removed the body.

Then they observed the accused for a couple of weeks, collecting further evidence and witness statements to confirm the above.

Anything else is speculative, but there might be CCTV footage, further dashcam footage, GPS data, phone data, forensic evidence at the accused home or on his vehicle which helps the police case. But they don't need it. Accused may have even made certain admissions.

We just don't need wild theories about psychotic behaviour or serial killer tendency. The discovery of the body may reveal more evidence of the circumstances, but police already think they have enough evidence to prove murder beyond reasonable doubt.

 

[CD Xbow]

It's argued now that many, not all, mass shooters share a lot of the same characteristics as the serial killer.

I think you are correct in general terms, they have a greater preponderance of the 'bad personality' types (antisocial, borderline, narcissistic) but then again so does all criminal activity (and boardrooms).

 

[thumbs_up]

Yes of course. I was commenting on your specific conclusion drawn from statistics, which was logically flawed. It's like saying 25% of the worlds population is Indian, so if you have 4 children, one will be Indian.

How about developing a working hypothesis which requires no assumptions or extrapolation or interpolation of data? Work with what we know for a fact:

Chill. For someone who doesn't want others to make assumptions, you sure made assumptions about what you think I've been trying to do with the use of statistics. And may I say, incorrectly

 

[Awakening]

63% of BF posters are full of

 

[31550]

Chill. For someone who doesn't want others to make assumptions, you sure made assumptions about what you think I've been trying to do with the use of statistics. And may I say, incorrectly

You cannot escape what you posted.

You said, "Because POS is 22, he is unlikely to have known SM."

Even if there is some remote statistical correlation between those two things, there is no logical reason for inferring one from the other.

 

[thumbs_up]

You cannot escape what you posted.

You said, "Because POS is 22, he is unlikely to have known SM."

Even if there is some remote statistical correlation between those two things, there is no logical reason for inferring one from the other.

Take a few long, deep breaths. Everything is going to be okay

 

[Lady O]

63% of BF posters are full of

Statistically, I think it's more like 76.8%

 

[31550]

Bullshit aside, statistical evidence is commonly and often innocently misused by:

• Overgeneralisation
• False Causality
• Confusing statistical significance with practical significance

- and a myriad of other misuses

Misuse of statistics - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[MSB ROYS]

Statistically, I think it's more like 76.8%

Watch out though as 42% of statistics are made up.

 

[thumbs_up]

Watch out though as 42% of statistics are made up.

 

[maggiethecat]

That’s an interesting point about him wearing army gear.

Exactly what I thought … camouflage

 

[maggiethecat]

Take a few long, deep breaths. Everything is going to be okay

 

[31550]

This is a reasonable hypothesis.
What’s your thoughts on why he would be charged with murder rather than vehicular manslaughter and interfering with a corpse?

Just my opinion here, (I am not claiming any of this as fact) but I think the murder charge is leverage to get him to give up the location of the body. I said they have enough prima facie evidence to charge him with murder, not necessarily enough to get a conviction. I think the position of the accused (possibly with legal advice) is that he is seeking a lesser charge / lesser conviction, and that is why he is remaining silent as to where the body is - he might exchange the location of the body for an agreement to a lesser charge. So it's a "Mexican stand-off".