Samantha Murphy Ballarat * Patrick Orren Stephenson Charged With Murder

[Kurve]

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The Murder of Rebecca Young - Ballarat

The Murder of Hannah McGuire - Ballarat * Lachie Young

17

Lachie Young

Age

25

Ht

189cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.5

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

220.3

3star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.5

2star

HB

3.5

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

3star

MG

210.0

3star

D

11.2

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

4star

MG

219.6

4star

charged



Allegedly

 

[Zidane98]

* correction: the ruling out of the husband was stated as "at this stage".

From the sounds of it probably not too difficult to establish that the husband was home at the time and he sounded the alarm at 11.

 

[Pamcake1]

The Ground Crew have been liaising with the police about the search and it’s still going ahead.

In fact they are calling on anyone to come and assist if they are able to.

Of course if something happened today and the ground crew got a directive to stop the search they would. But they haven’t.

Interesting, thanks for that. Must be that small item or maybe they want to watch what happens.

 

[Zidane98]

The presser sounded promising. It's interesting that he answered most questions including ruling out the husband, we're talking to family, friends and colleagues etc but gave a "I can't comment" regarding any Bikie links. Or am I reading too much into it? He also reassured everyone that the area is safe and there is no danger posed to anyone which suggests a targeted attack.

That's not surprising considering the ongoing investigation into that.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Interesting, thanks for that. Must be that small item or maybe they want to watch what happens.

Or there is no "small item/s" but they want a suspect to panic, maybe thinking they've dislodged an ear-ring or button or other clothing accessory?

 

[Pamcake1]

* correction: the ruling out of the husband was stated as "at this stage".

Yes, they have to say 'at this stage' until they can be definitive.

 

[Athena]

Yes, they have to say 'at this stage' until they can be definitive.

So they can't definitively rule him out then. But most likely perhaps considering how cooperative and helpful the family is said to have been.

 

[geoffjennings79]

That's what the coppers did with old mate Jetstar pilot from CS in the Wonnangatta couple case. Eventually sent him bonkers and they closed in to arrest him as they thought he might off himself.

That's why I posted that I wonder if there actually is/are "small items". I would expect small items to be found by trained dogs or professional LE or trackers, not so much amateur searchers.

So like you say with GL, maybe police making suspect think they've missed something and to go back and check, likely before tomorrow's search?

 

[31550]

Or there is no "small item/s" but they want a suspect to panic, maybe thinking they've dislodged an ear-ring or button or other clothing accessory?

Or they are not actually looking for anything in particular, but want to send a message to suspects/POIs that they have phone data which suggests they should be searching in this location.

The timing is interesting. It's been nearly three weeks, but police would have had this data within a few days, and it would only take a few more days to cross-reference and analyse it. So, it should have been available at least a week ago, if not two. I'm thinking it may not have been Samantha's, but someone else's device which was pinging in this area, and the current search is targeted at that person.

 

[Zidane98]

Or they are not actually looking for anything in particular, but want to send a message to suspects/POIs that they have phone data which suggests they should be searching in this location.

The timing is interesting. It's been nearly three weeks, but police would have had this data within a few days, and it would only take a few more days to cross-reference and analyse it. So, it should have been available at least a week ago, if not two. I'm thinking it may not have been Samantha's, but someone else's device which was pinging in this area, and the current search is targeted at that person.

They obviously had her data within days.


What would have taken significant time to sift through is matching mobile phone data for another party / suspect. The towers in that area would potentially have thousands of mobile phones connected at any one time. To go through mobile phone data requires warrants etc, this is time consuming. Coppers can't just pull mobile phone data as they please without due process.

 

[FIGJAM]

There's not an excel spreadsheet with every single call ever made that's open to anybody in the police.

There must be something showing pings, calls or data usage, otherwise, where did they find it?

And given that it's data, how can it not be searchable?

 

[geoffjennings79]

There must be something showing pings, calls or data usage, otherwise, where did they find it?

And given that it's data, how can it not be searchable?

Post above yours I think answers your question.

 

[31550]

They obviously had her data within days.


What would have taken significant time to sift through is matching mobile phone data for another party / suspect. The towers in that area would potentially have thousands of mobile phones connected at any one time. To go through mobile phone data requires warrants etc, this is time consuming. Coppers can't just pull mobile phone data as they please without due process.

Yeah they can certainly pull all data from a cell tower over a time period and work backwards from the numbers to people.
If they do this for two particular towers in a given time period they can cross-reference and see which numbers pinged both towers. They can then identify who owns those numbers, request an intercept on those phones (may require court order), and obtain further data specific to those phone numbers / IMEIs.

 

[Zidane98]

There must be something showing pings, calls or data usage, otherwise, where did they find it?

And given that it's data, how can it not be searchable?

Mobile phones generally ping towers at regular intervals when they are idle. Also, apps are constantly connected.


I imagine their mobile phone data would be time, tower logged in to, signal strength, signal frequency, etc. This doesn't contain an exact location but can be calculated to a certain error margin by the phone signal data information.

Apps on her phone (or watch) may very well have been reporting her exact position until the alleged incident. That would be very helpful but would require she gives permission for her apps to broadcast GPS location all the time. Most people I know don't give that permission on phones because of the battery drain. For instance on my device I only give permission for GPS location while app is in use.

 

[Athena]

The police must have a hot lead on suspect/s because otherwise how could they possibly reassure the public that no one else is in danger, area is safe etc. That can only mean they've ruled out a random attack by a rapist, psycho etc in the bushes who could prey on others and they know for a fact the attack was targeted. For them to know that they must have strong evidence and a prime suspect/suspects. Otherwise how could they reassure the public?

 

[geoffjennings79]

Yeah they can certainly pull all data from a cell tower over a time period and work backwards from the numbers to people.
If they do this for two particular towers in a given time period they can cross-reference and see which numbers pinged both towers. They can then identify who owns those numbers, request an intercept on those phones (may require court order), and obtain further data specific to those phone numbers / IMEIs.

Or a scenario like the Idaho uni murders where the suspect turned off his phone, but was on CCTV and/or pinged towers travelling to and from the murder scene fitting the timeline.

So may even have a suspect pinging off towers in the area before 7am, phone off, then back on again later. Unlikely, as even self-acclaimed smart crims ultimately miss something critical.

 

[Zidane98]

The police must have a hot lead on suspect/s because otherwise how could they possibly reassure the public that no one else is in danger, area is safe etc. That can only mean they've ruled out a random attack by a rapist, psycho etc in the bushes who could prey on others and they know for a fact the attack was targeted. For them to know that they must have strong evidence and a prime suspect/suspects. Otherwise how could they reassure the public?

Agreed. The coppers don't appear to believe there was an attack by a predator at random on Murphy.

 

[Zidane98]

And quite clearly the show of strength with the investigation force being publicly announced is an attempt to put pressure on a suspected perp and get them to confess. "We are going to find you, you are better off to give up now"

 

[geoffjennings79]

So not a random attack, likely a suspect (or suspects given some police references). I wonder how much info they have, and if they're now just trying to fill in a few missing pieces, but aware of roughly what occurred.

Edit: sorry that's sort of rhetorical - like Z98, I reckon they have a LOT more than they're letting on. Hopefully an arrest is imminent, especially for Samantha's family and friends.

 

[Athena]

Wh

Agreed. The coppers don't appear to believe there was an attack by a predator at random on Murphy.

Which means they have a fair clue as to what went down. It was a targeted attack. Question then is motive, why would someone attack a nice Mum?

 

[Pamcake1]

Yeah they can certainly pull all data from a cell tower over a time period and work backwards from the numbers to people.
If they do this for two particular towers in a given time period they can cross-reference and see which numbers pinged both towers. They can then identify who owns those numbers, request an intercept on those phones (may require court order), and obtain further data specific to those phone numbers / IMEIs.

But don't forget that there was only Mt Buninyong tower that day, as the others were down for 'maintenance' (is this the switch over to 4G in the area?)

 

[geoffjennings79]

Wh

Which means they have a fair clue as to what went down. It was a targeted attack. Question then is motive, why would someone attack a nice Mum?

Lot of possible scenarios:

• mistaken identity
• related to family business
• family member/friend
  - any number of other scenarios

Sadly, nothing would surprise me these days. ☹

 

[Athena]

Lot of possible scenarios:

• mistaken identity
• related to family business
• family member/friend
  - any number of other scenarios

Sadly, nothing would surprise me these days. ☹

Mistaken identity would mean another person is in danger and appears a bit of a stretch because if someone is being targeted you'd think the perpetrator would know the victim's address, movements in detail etc. Unless incompetent.

Tied to business would suggest money motives, unless there was a ransom demand I don't see how that makes sense.

Family member/friend...why would anybody attack a loved one?

Only scenario I can think of is perhaps a lover who was rejected but surely that's not a motive to attack someone. Husband would be the one with the most to lose in that kind of scenario but he appears not to be a suspect.

 

[Awakening]

Thanks. Fires are to the north and west, so search area not impacted at this stage.
(Had a few hairy moments last night with fire debris landing at home. Hoping Avoca is safe today. )

Hope all stays okay. We had a small fire here yesterday on the peninsula that thankfully was contained fairly quickly.

We back on to a natural bush reserve so fires make me nervous. Although neighbour is a firie.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Hope all stays okay. We had a small fire here yesterday on the peninsula that thankfully was contained fairly quickly.

We back on to a natural bush reserve so fires make me nervous. Although neighbour is a firie.

Thanks.

Funny, I never used to worry about fire in Melbourne, even living in timber homes for many years. Now living in a rural area, it's at the back of my mind all year round, even in winter thinking what else can you improve around the property to reduce the risk.

Still loving the lifestyle though!

 

[jimbler]

Question then is motive, why would someone attack a nice Mum?

I've watch 11 billion and 3 American true crime documentaries and here's how it commonly plays out.

Nice Mum tells Nice Dad I want a divorce.

Nice Dad gets angry because Nice Dad is about to lose his business, possibly his house and children as well.

Nice Dad has some connections with some nefarious people through his business.

Nice Dad asks these people if they know of anyone that could make Nice Mum disappear for a price.

Nice Dad is told there is and is given a price which is significantly cheaper than losing everything he owns.

Nice Dad gives these people the go ahead and also the daily routine of Nice Mum.

Naughty people wait for Nice Mum on one of these routine days and are able to bundle her into a car.

The End