Media Season 38 Mobbs Predictor: Okay, I was wrong last season.

[FootyGuy13]

That's right, it's back for the 4th time. You thought I wasn't gonna do this between simulating an Olympics and starting a qricket team? Of course not, there's a prediction I've got to get horribly wrong. Season 38 is getting close to the finals now and there's no better way to show that than to pretend like I know how the Best-on-Ground system works.

So, usually how this works is that I run every game through my own formula to get the 3-2-1 votes, tally up every vote and come back to you guys with a "winner", except last season when that didn't happen. In fact, not only did Tandy not win the Mobbs Medal last season, they weren't even the highest polling Bear on the night. That's not even covering the fact that the person who did win the Mobbs last season wasn't expected to do well in the Predictor at all and that the person who won was also my teammate. If only that was the only snub pantskyle got that award season.

Now, in case it's a rookie or a fool that's reading this, this is what the Mobbs Predictor is predicting: The Mobbs Medal is the Sweet Football Association's version of the Brownlow Medal. The sim has an top-secret algorithm to figure out who the best player is in a simulated game and gives out 3 votes to the best player, 2 votes to the second best and 1 vote to 3rd. Throughout the season the best players in theory should be gathering votes consistently and in the end, the player with the most votes is deemed to be the best in the league.

You also have the "Coaches" Vote. Since I use 2 parts in my personal algorithm to figure out who is the best player, I separate the two and see which player the 2 parts like individually. I then put the 2 separate parts through a 5-4-3-2-1 points system, add the tallies together and BOOM: "Coaches" Votes. This system has actually proved to be MORE accurate than the overall Mobbs Predictor considering that pantskyle had a much better finish of 2nd in that system.



Blah, blah, blah, that's a lotta reading, when do we get to boast about being the best? In due time, my friend, in due time.​

 

[Tonga Bob]

If only that was the only snub pantskyle got that award season.​

Never forget #justiceforpants

 

[Braklet]

TL;DR

I'm a rookie AND a fool!

 

[ClarkeM]

I win it this year

 

[FootyBot13]

Let's show an example of how this works by showing the results of the first 4 rounds of Mobbs Predicting:


After both missed out on votes in the first round, both moginie and Ocha905 were calculated to be the best players in their respective games for Rounds 2, 3 and 4. This means they got three lots of 3 votes and are on top with 9 but what stands out about this is the 3-vote lead they have over 3rd, 4th and 5th. TY24 philreich and GWS Goose also had good starts to the season with 6 votes each but the way those 3 got their was different, with Goose having 2 BOGs and TY24 having none.

We now look at the Coaches Votes to see if we can break some ties:


Perfect 10s in Rounds 2 and 3 sees moginie and Ocha905 still share 1st place, but philreich ends up being outright 3rd thanks to a score of 10 in Round 2 himself. TY24 is also within a game of top spot with Pamcake1 and ShaunDuggan jumping GWS Goose in what might show a disceptive 3rd-placing in the Mobbs for him.​

 

[GWS Goose]

Let's show an example of how this works by showing the results of the first 4 rounds of Mobbs Predicting:
View attachment 2166319

After both missed out on votes in the first round, both moginie and Ocha905 were calculated to be the best players in their respective games for Rounds 2, 3 and 4. This means they got three lots of 3 votes and are on top with 9 but what stands out about this is the 3-vote lead they have over 3rd, 4th and 5th. TY24 philreich and GWS Goose also had good starts to the season with 6 votes each but the way those 3 got their was different, with Goose having 2 BOGs and TY24 having none.

We now look at the Coaches Votes to see if we can break some ties:
View attachment 2166321

Perfect 10s in Rounds 2 and 3 sees moginie and Ocha905 still share 1st place, but philreich ends up being outright 3rd thanks to a score of 10 in Round 2 himself. TY24 is also within a game of top spot with Pamcake1 and ShaunDuggan jumping GWS Goose in what might show a disceptive 3rd-placing in the Mobbs for him.​

I expect I'll fall a little. But good to see the umpires still writing down my name even as a full forward

 

[Headless]

Go moginie!

 

[FootyBot13]

Now we fast forward to round 8. Almost at the half-way mark of the season, majority of teams have had a bye and the Mount Buller Demons, specifically moginie , have gone on a rampage.

Here's the Mobbs Predictor Leaderboard for Round 8:


I thought mogine having a calculated 3 BOGs was being unbelieveable, then it extended past that to 5! 15 votes at only round 6! However, if you know how well the Demons season has been going since Round 6, you know what's happened since.

The big movers in the 4 round jump forward were philreich Pie 4 Life and Drizzy who now all sit within the top 5 of the standings with P4L especially seeing as they are expected to poll votes in every round from 4 to 8. Ocha905 is still in the Top 3, and it'd be hard to catch up with how much moginie is polling, but the well is drying up.

Can the Coaches Votes give us a more clearer picture in exchange?


Despite moginie scoring 49 out of a possible 60 up to Round 6, philreich and Pie 4 Life's more steady run of votes in the 8-6 range in this system means that moginie has nowhere near the commanding lead. Although the only thing that matters is that moginie is ahead.

Ocha905 barely within a game of the lead now but is staying up there, Drizzy rounds out the Top 6 is what is a breakout season for them on sim results and Pamcake1 is managing to keep their name in the discussion to keep the Wonders interested. Will there be a change at the top when we check in at Round 12?


(Actually, I wanna see how many votes this thing will give moginie)​

 

[Braklet]

Let's show an example of how this works by showing the results of the first 4 rounds of Mobbs Predicting:
View attachment 2166319

After both missed out on votes in the first round, both moginie and Ocha905 were calculated to be the best players in their respective games for Rounds 2, 3 and 4. This means they got three lots of 3 votes and are on top with 9 but what stands out about this is the 3-vote lead they have over 3rd, 4th and 5th. TY24 philreich and GWS Goose also had good starts to the season with 6 votes each but the way those 3 got their was different, with Goose having 2 BOGs and TY24 having none.

We now look at the Coaches Votes to see if we can break some ties:
View attachment 2166321

Perfect 10s in Rounds 2 and 3 sees moginie and Ocha905 still share 1st place, but philreich ends up being outright 3rd thanks to a score of 10 in Round 2 himself. TY24 is also within a game of top spot with Pamcake1 and ShaunDuggan jumping GWS Goose in what might show a disceptive 3rd-placing in the Mobbs for him.​