Analysis Should we really be spewing over trading out our 2021 picks?

[Prochard123]

I am flabbergasted at how people don’t understand how the draft matching system works and not understanding that had we held pick 2...it would have been swallowed whole on any Daicos bid unless we offloaded it for future pick in 2022.

I am flabbergasted at how people don't understand that if we had pick 2, we are under no obligation to take it to the draft lol...

Imagine all the trade possibilities that pick 2 can open up? We could've had a shot at Hopper/Cerra (especially if we lose Maynard which frees up cap). And at the very least we could've easily traded pick 2 for 2 future 1sts, easily.

 

[Prochard123]

The point is that our recruitment/list managers are absolute amateurs, with a proven of track record of consistently poor performance.

You knew this, I knew this.

Let's not kid ourselves and make up excuses for them lol. A mistake is a mistake. All you can do is learn from it and stop pretending that it wasn't a mistake in the first place. What annoys me is that I'm pretty sure they were aware that this was a terrible trade, but chose to proceed to double down on this "we didn't mess up in the trade period, we just really rate this year's draft" bs story.

 

[partypie]

We had to jettison that first round pick - the question was whether we did so during last trade period or this one. There wasn't any reasonable scenario where we could have kept pick 2 and actually used it.

The only discussion here is the value we got back in return for our 2021 1st at the time (where I don't think anyone had us finishing 17th even though we were set to slide down the ladder), but with the piss poor negotiating skills of our list management team you just have to accept what happened at the time and move on as that horse is well and truly dead now and not worth flogging anymore.

What it does highlight though is how bad an idea it is to hold onto a trade for a first round pick until the very last minute during the live draft, as GWS had us over a barrel as the draft unfolded and they knew it.

Our performance in general over the past 5, 6, even 7 trade periods in terms of how we negotiate at the trade table has been nothing short of horrible and hopefully will improve markedly under GW's oversight.

 

[Kappa]

I'll admit I didn't know this, makes sense if that is correct that we used it while we could.

Yeah, you don't understand what's going on.

 

[76woodenspooners]

In what world is trading a future 1st when you're a declining middle-of-the-pack team for pick 24 + pick 30 picks 23, 30, 33 and 44 acceptable?

EFA

How did we expect the team to perform after losing Treloar, Stephenson, Phillips (in probably our weakest line) for no senior player in return?

Fair point. But it’s not just what we thought, it’s what other clubs (except GWS) thought. We would have had more of a bidding war if others believed we were a decent chance of finishing 17th.

The recruitment team simply wanted to save their jobs, and it was at the cost of our future.

Or they wanted to get the jump on replacing some of the 10 list vacancies with mid-draft picks rather than end-draft picks?

 

[Horaceg]

In what world is trading a future 1st when you're a declining middle-of-the-pack team for pick 24 + pick 30 acceptable?

How did we expect the team to perform after losing Treloar, Stephenson, Phillips (in probably our weakest line) for no senior player in return?

The recruitment team simply wanted to save their jobs, and it was at the cost of our future.

As I said you can keep blaming and being outraged or you can move on with what we have, Eddie is gone, Bucks is gone, Walsh is gone, Ned is gone. We all get what happened last year was cr@p, it wasn't managed well, it's time for acceptance and time to move on. We don't have pick 2 anymore but we will get the best kid in the draft (IMHO)

 

[Scribe26]

I think it's fair to say that the list management team made decisions on an assumption that we would finish 2021 around 7-12 on the ladder. In that theoretical window, the trade isn't too controversial.

It's the assumption that hurts me, given we released three players from the best 22 for below market value and injected almost 10 players to the squad under the age of 20.

We cleared cap space, ate into our depth, replaced that depth with kids not exposed to elite football and still assumed we'd be a top-half football team.

Nick Daicos can be the second coming of Christ - it doesn't mean it wasn't a mistake.

If we were entering October now with Pick 2, we'd be in a brilliant position to not only cover the required points, but add further young talent to the rebuild. Instead, we're cobbling together what we can for Nick after a trade or two and could have to eat into next year's points to boot.

But, we move on with our lives. We're lucky enough to trade pick 2 away and still get a talent that should exceed even that spot in the draft.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Please don’t take this as a complaint about this specific thread, because it is as advertised, but I really hope the trade of our 2021 first doesn’t become the new “succession plan” which Pies fans argue over for another ten years and counting.

We cocked up the trade. We also finished lower than anyone in AFL circles expected, or we would have gotten a better return. Hopefully the players we picked return better value than the draft capital we invested. I really want to put the last 18 months behind us and feel optimistic about the McRae/Daicos era.

 

[manicpie]

Not only am I spewing, but I keep getting vomit in the back of my throat

 

[Ugene41]

Agree with 76woodenspooners.

I've covered the scenario ad nauseam in the Trade & Draft thread. But essentially the scenario boils down to whether we would have preferred a mid first round draft pick in 2022 or Poulter and McMahon in 2020. Posters can make up their own minds but I'm willing to back Poulter/McMahon as the right choice given the need to bring in a strong cohort of talent all in at once after trading away first round picks in so many of our recent years. We couldn't afford to wait another 2 years to have that influx of first rounders.

We are never going to use pick 2 to target a player like Cerra in 2021. If we had the salary cap why would we not have just kept Stephenson in that scenario who's a better player currently (excluding his off field issues). We are resetting our salary cap for a tilt from 2023 onwards.

 

[jackcass]

I am flabbergasted at how people don’t understand how the draft matching system works and not understanding that had we held pick 2...it would have been swallowed whole on any Daicos bid unless we offloaded it for future pick in 2022.

I'm pretty sure most of us understand.

If we'd retained pick 2 we'd have a few options.
- retain it and use it to match,
- trade it for future or later picks,
- use it in a player trade.

I think if we'd known it would be a pick 2 we may have played it differently but I doubt anyone seriously thought we'd fall into the bottom 6 cohort after playing finals the previous 3 seasons.

 

[jackcass]

I think it's fair to say that the list management team made decisions on an assumption that we would finish 2021 around 7-12 on the ladder. In that theoretical window, the trade isn't too controversial.

It's the assumption that hurts me, given we released three players from the best 22 for below market value and injected almost 10 players to the squad under the age of 20.

We cleared cap space, ate into our depth, replaced that depth with kids not exposed to elite football and still assumed we'd be a top-half football team.

Nick Daicos can be the second coming of Christ - it doesn't mean it wasn't a mistake.

If we were entering October now with Pick 2, we'd be in a brilliant position to not only cover the required points, but add further young talent to the rebuild. Instead, we're cobbling together what we can for Nick after a trade or two and could have to eat into next year's points to boot.

But, we move on with our lives. We're lucky enough to trade pick 2 away and still get a talent that should exceed even that spot in the draft.

Six of 1, 1/2 dozen the other. Treloar only played 10 out of 19 games, Stevo 14/19, Phillips 15/19. None of them really had that much impact on our 2020 when we made finals. The loss of depth players like Reid, Wills, Varcoe et al combined with reduced 2021 contributions from Howe (again), Moore, Elliott, Adams had arguably greater impact this year.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

It is what it is so pointless crying over spilt milk.

But if we offered Poulter and McMahon for pick 2 at this years trade table they’d laugh their heads off.

 

[Baird]

Don't care, Poulter alone will be better than whoever GWS draft.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Love it.

People are getting upset talking about this because “it’s done, move on” blah blah blah yet had no issues talking about the Malthouse transition for the better part of a decade after it happened over and over and over? Yeah okay

 

[Horaceg]

Don't care, Poulter alone will be better than whoever GWS draft.

That’s the spirit

 

[lenny&carl]

The point is that our recruitment/list managers are absolute amateurs, with a proven of track record of consistently poor performance.

You knew this, I knew this.

Let's not kid ourselves and make up excuses for them lol. A mistake is a mistake. All you can do is learn from it and stop pretending that it wasn't a mistake in the first place. What annoys me is that I'm pretty sure they were aware that this was a terrible trade, but chose to proceed to double down on this "we didn't mess up in the trade period, we just really rate this year's draft" bs story.

You "assume the sale" a lot, but that is not the same as actually arguing the case.

 

[lenny&carl]

It is what it is so pointless crying over spilt milk.

But if we offered Poulter and McMahon for pick 2 at this years trade table they’d laugh their heads off.

Plus a 2nd round pick worth of Daicos points. Get the bloody equation right!

 

[lenny&carl]

Agree with 76woodenspooners.

I've covered the scenario ad nauseam in the Trade & Draft thread. But essentially the scenario boils down to whether we would have preferred a mid first round draft pick in 2022 or Poulter and McMahon in 2020. Posters can make up their own minds but I'm willing to back Poulter/McMahon as the right choice given the need to bring in a strong cohort of talent all in at once after trading away first round picks in so many of our recent years. We couldn't afford to wait another 2 years to have that influx of first rounders.

We are never going to use pick 2 to target a player like Cerra in 2021. If we had the salary cap why would we not have just kept Stephenson in that scenario who's a better player currently (excluding his off field issues). We are resetting our salary cap for a tilt from 2023 onwards.

Ugene understands the score here. Others don't.

 

[lenny&carl]

If you're gonna criticize Collingwood for not realising our pick would be pick two, then 16 other clubs stand equally condemned for not realising it and then outbiding GWS and buying pick 2 from us at a still bargain price.

 

[Trickster]

Ugene understands the score here. Others don't.

There's different ways to have used the first and second round draft picks this year without having those absorbed for Daicos, your view is just an opinion. It's not categorical and as you can see here many argue the opposing options quite sensibly.

 

[lenny&carl]

There's different ways to have used the first and second round draft picks this year without having those absorbed for Daicos, your view is just an opinion. It's not categorical and as you can see here many argue the opposing options quite sensibly.

Yeah but they're still wrong!

 

[Trickster]

Yeah but they're still wrong!

They were alright because we finished 17th

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Love it.

People are getting upset talking about this because “it’s done, move on” blah blah blah yet had no issues talking about the Malthouse transition for the better part of a decade after it happened over and over and over? Yeah okay

Whatcha talking bout Willis

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Whatcha talking bout Willis

You know what, I don’t actually know at the moment.