Skippos's 2015 Draft Resource

[hawk2]

Yeah, I like what I've seen too. From what I've gathered there are some concerns within the setup there - narrow minded decision making, poor man management and inconsistent communication on all fronts. I don't know the finer details of the setup and while I'm aware you can only work with what you've got, the WA crop this year and to a lesser extent last year just seems too poor to be attributable to just bad luck. Vic Metro have a 'bad luck' kind of squad but they've at least been able to work with it and get some talent out of it. The lack of any really good talent barring Ah Chee is just really, really questionable. The test of their 18s setup will be next year. A crop who was excellent at 16s level and already thus far seem to have an elite core. They really should be at the standard and pushing country (who have another excellent top end) for honours. If they fall away again, something's not right and I'd certainly look towards changes.




I don't particularly like comparisons for a variety of reasons but they're below, anyway. In the open draft I think there's a gap between the top 3 and the rest, a bit like last year with McCartin, Bray and CP and then the rest.

Aaron Francis - Brendon Goddard (more athletic and slightly more key position leaning. less natural an accumulator and not as devastatingly lethal by foot)
Jacob Weitering - There isn't one. The best parts of Cale Hooker mixed with the best of Sam Fisher, perhaps?
Josh Schache - Parts of Josh Bruce, parts of Tom Lynch (GC)
Callum Mills - Can't think of a great one - perhaps a Shaun Burgoyne in his Port days?
Darcy Parish - Nick Dal Santo
Matthew Kennedy - Trent Cotchin
Luke Partington - Leigh Montagna perhaps, early career Ryan Griffen too
Rhys Mathieson - Scott Thompson perhaps

Yes you are right, they certainly let Della franca down and possible other 18 year olds.
Hopefully changes are made to ensure other young boys don't get treated the same and WA can be proud of their State Academy and its achievements.

 

[grundog49]

'waiting another year' for a certain player is not something I recommend or endorse. You cannot foresee their development or the range you'll be in. Seems very presumptuous to put all your eggs in the one basket.

He's one of the players I would classify as a sure thing to drafted unless injurerd or he drops off significantly. Endurance runner, elite ball user, versatile and an accumulator. He's a modern midfielder size already at 190. Stats wise he's averaging 18 disposals at 85+ percent in the u18 championships.

 

[FreeAgent1]

Dunkely keeps moving up board which is really confusing me????

I mean he was out with a back injury played 1 game then subbed for tigers reserves getting like 6 touches....

I could understand if he was a top 5 previously, but this is just strange.

 

[gillo94]

Yeah, I like what I've seen too. From what I've gathered there are some concerns within the setup there - narrow minded decision making, poor man management and inconsistent communication on all fronts. I don't know the finer details of the setup and while I'm aware you can only work with what you've got, the WA crop this year and to a lesser extent last year just seems too poor to be attributable to just bad luck. Vic Metro have a 'bad luck' kind of squad but they've at least been able to work with it and get some talent out of it. The lack of any really good talent barring Ah Chee is just really, really questionable. The test of their 18s setup will be next year. A crop who was excellent at 16s level and already thus far seem to have an elite core. They really should be at the standard and pushing country (who have another excellent top end) for honours. If they fall away again, something's not right and I'd certainly look towards changes.




I don't particularly like comparisons for a variety of reasons but they're below, anyway. In the open draft I think there's a gap between the top 3 and the rest, a bit like last year with McCartin, Bray and CP and then the rest.

Aaron Francis - Brendon Goddard (more athletic and slightly more key position leaning. less natural an accumulator and not as devastatingly lethal by foot)
Jacob Weitering - There isn't one. The best parts of Cale Hooker mixed with the best of Sam Fisher, perhaps?
Josh Schache - Parts of Josh Bruce, parts of Tom Lynch (GC)
Callum Mills - Can't think of a great one - perhaps a Shaun Burgoyne in his Port days?
Darcy Parish - Nick Dal Santo
Matthew Kennedy - Trent Cotchin
Luke Partington - Leigh Montagna perhaps, early career Ryan Griffen too
Rhys Mathieson - Scott Thompson perhaps

Skippo who is the best non academy midfielder?

 

[Skippos]

Will you take into account the new f/s and academy rules in your phantom draft? It looks like they'll cost Sydney and GWS a lot to land both each. For example, let's say Sydney finish second like last year, and their two are bid on where they land in your power rankings. Mills is bid on at 4 (2034 points, 1627 discounted). Sydney match it with 18 (985) + 37 (483) + 55 (207), and get pick 69 back. Dunkley then gets bid on at pick 10 (1395 becomes 1116), and Sydney only have 69 (49) and 73 (9) which won't do it. Do they take a 1058 point hit to next years picks then?

Could add another level to phantom drafting. I'm certain it'll make real draft day more exciting.

I'm working on an excel spreadsheet that calculates the academy pick changes in response to bidding. When that is complete I'll consider including that in the OP, with where I project a player to be be bid on deciding how the picks change around it.

But given how tentative and speculative the whole concept is, it'll be tough to implement,met it I'm these phantoms.

Regarding Dunkley, it all depends on whether there's talent in next year's academy group. They'd be essentially losing their shot at them if they carry over for Dunkley. But in general I'd be advocating it as I strongly believe Dunkley to be worth that.

Wouldn't Sydney have to trade someone out to come up with the picks (points) to be able to afford the 2nd player?

To not go into debt, yes. And I expect them to investigate trade possibilities this year to avoid going into debt.

They take it off next years first round.

I doubt sydney will trade big name player this year, due to trade restrictions. More likely to be next year and it will prob be an inside midfielder. (Bird/Mitchell)

I have heard Beatson talk about draft strategy before, he "pick on talent, trade for position motto" .

With that in mind I expect us to try to get Dunkley, I wouldn't be surprised if he chucks a Gibbs and says nah. He is training with Richmond atm.....

Do doubt if the swans look like they need points, some clubs will look for trade steals, but i doubt we will do any.

I too have suspicions that he may not nominate. It's an interesting decision. Depends on a variety of factors - where'd he'd likely go in the open draft, his affinity with Sydney, his openness to moving states and his desire to play early football In his career vs waiting but being in a better setup.

Given the likelihood of GC having a high pick and the other interstate sides being higher on the ladder, with where he projects atm it's very likely he'd remain in Victoria. If he's not too keen on moving States I certainly can't see why he'd nominate, especially given the testy relationship his father has with the swans.

 

[Skippos]

He's one of the players I would classify as a sure thing to drafted unless injurerd or he drops off significantly. Endurance runner, elite ball user, versatile and an accumulator. He's a modern midfielder size already at 190. Stats wise he's averaging 18 disposals at 85+ percent in the u18 championships.

You completely missed my point. I'm not having a go at Berry, he looks a top prospect. What I'm having a crack at is your notion that you'd recommend 'waiting another year for Berry to fill that need'

You don't put all your eggs in the one basket. That'd be like St. Kilda last year picking Petracca over McCartin, with the rationale being 'well, we'll just wait for Schache next year' - then all of a sudden, St. Kilda are winning a few games and Schache looks like going ahead of their pick and they'd have been left without a key forward.

If you've got a need, and there's an option to fill it - you do. You don't wait for a slightly better fit as who knows what will happen - they might do what Ryan Burton did, they might stagnate, they might rise to well above your pick? It's risky and not advisable.

 

[Skippos]

Dunkely keeps moving up board which is really confusing me????

I mean he was out with a back injury played 1 game then subbed for tigers reserves getting like 6 touches....

I could understand if he was a top 5 previously, but this is just strange.

Not sure what you're talking about? You confused about Dunkley moving up the board i.e. he was 15 now he's 10? Because that certainly isn't the case. I've had Dunkley around 7-11 consistently, he's one of the ones who hasn't moved much at all.

Skippo who is the best non academy midfielder?

Darcy Parish provided Aaron Francis doesn't show a dominant midfield game when tried there.

 

[Chaisa]

So far what do you think of the 2016 crop? Better or worse than this year's?

 

[Skippos]

So far what do you think of the 2016 crop? Better or worse than this year's?

It's a tough one. By this time-July last year I was already pretty content with Keays, Mills, Dunkley, Weitering Mathieson, Partington, Schache, Burton, Tucker and Parish as genuine first round if not top 10 talents, while I also had some real confidence in Francis, Agius, O'Kearney, Skinner, Collins and Tahana. Blokes like Nate Dennis, Sullivan, Bennett, Wagner and Stewart were also on my radar. You know that between then and now you're going to get blokes coming into the conversation - and given that base I was exceedingly confident that it'd be a bumper crop this year. It perhaps hasn't delivered on that yet.

This year I'm not as sold of the great top end like I was (slightly wrongfully) last year. Seton, Powell-Pepper, Scharenberg, Slimming, Simpkin, Ainsworth, Brodie, Berry and Galucci with Scheer, Allison and Byrne as academy prospects as that 'top tier' with Waterman, Strnadica, Goddard, Hura, Graham, Ladhams, Coombe and McClarty as blokes I'm still trying to get a read on.

So yeah, at this stage I've probably got more blokes I'm seeing as first round type talents than I did last year - but I was more confident in that group of 10 making the grade (and to be fair, all of them are still likely first rounders) than I am this year - I like a lot of those kids but outside of Powell-Pepper who I really, really like and Seton who's probably the #1 at this stage I'm not as convinced in the pure dominance of next year's lads.

Not sure it'll be a great crop from SA and perhaps Metro again, though. The academy kids are really piquing my interest - good to see one coming along from GC as well.

 

[grundog49]

You completely missed my point. I'm not having a go at Berry, he looks a top prospect. What I'm having a crack at is your notion that you'd recommend 'waiting another year for Berry to fill that need'

You don't put all your eggs in the one basket. That'd be like St. Kilda last year picking Petracca over McCartin, with the rationale being 'well, we'll just wait for Schache next year' - then all of a sudden, St. Kilda are winning a few games and Schache looks like going ahead of their pick and they'd have been left without a key forward.

If you've got a need, and there's an option to fill it - you do. You don't wait for a slightly better fit as who knows what will happen - they might do what Ryan Burton did, they might stagnate, they might rise to well above your pick? It's risky and not advisable.

Oh okay. I thought you were saying berry was going to drop down the order rapidly. I not saying you don't take a half back now but im saying if next year the western bulldogs still have the same issue then they should think very hard about drafting Gallucci and Berry. Both very good players for 2016. You could have (hypothetically) Bonner or Tucker with their first pick and then Berry the very next year.

 

[lzimmer]

Do you really think Carlton need a midfielder over a key position player such as Weitering or Schache?

 

[Chizm]

What are your thoughts on Schache thus far? He's put together a nice carnival so far! Who in the AFL would you compare him to?

 

[Ian Dunross]

What's holding Partington back for mine is the lack of an elite trait. He's good by foot but not elite like some in the draft. He's okay at winning the hard and ground ball but not elite like some in the draft. He's quick but not electric like some. He'll run the ball but not break the lines constantly like some. He's got a good read of the tap and wins the clearances but he's not an elite clearance player. He's got some goal sense but isn't yet a goal kicking midfielder. The most elite thing about him for mine is his running patterns and his decision making and intent is probably close to an AFL level too.

And his champs have been great, as I expected - he's done what I thought he'd do. But I also understand why. He's better than most of the kids on the field at winning clearances so he'll win them. He runs harder than most so he'll be in positions to get the ball more than most. He's okay at the hard ball so he'll win a bit of it too. He's quick so he'll get away from these slower kids. But that's just it - the standard is diluted. At AFL level he's not going to be an elite clearance player because he'll be the same while everyone else will be better around him. Likewise the hard ball, he's just going to be knocked off it. He won't be in the top echelon for speed or work rate either.

The players who make it have often have some really dominant traits that translate well. At champs level they're often restricted by that dominant trait - for example a Hopper is going to win a lot of that inside and contested ball and that's where his Partington is better than the rest at most of these things at this level - he's super rounded. But at the next level he's going to be neither your pure line breaking outside mid or your natural, bullocking inside mid. He's going to be in that inbetween zone where he's a jack of all trades and master of none, and I'm just not sure these types ever become truly elite - and that's my concern.

I think he'll make it, and I think he'll be good. But I just don't see the same ceiling for him as I do for some others in this crop. Just like I'm unsure that he'll have the same impact early as some will.

Luke Dunstan comparison fair?

 

[Skippos]

Luke Dunstan comparison fair?

No, not at all unfortunately!

Dunstan is a tough as nails inside midfielder.

Partington is an outside midfielder with some inside game. I see Partington as more of a Ryan Griffen early career/Leigh Montagna comparison,

 

[Skippos]

Do you really think Carlton need a midfielder over a key position player such as Weitering or Schache?

It depends on the relative abilities and ceilings of said midfielders and KPPs. In general I've seen clubs win flags with forward lines without gun key forwards or backs. Ive seen success in sides who have played an undersized forward line. The common denominator of success is a an excellent midfield.

Cripps? sure. Docherty? If he plays in the middle, sure.

Aside from that there's just not much. Certainly not a premiership midfield. I agree KPPs are a need but both are equally strong needs so I'd just pick best available to be honest. Trade week will decide a bit; if Henderson stays id certainly be leaning away from KPP and looking at a Francis type.

What are your thoughts on Schache thus far? He's put together a nice carnival so far! Who in the AFL would you compare him to?

I like him. From everything I've seen he presents a strong chance to make the grade. I am far more confident in his chances of success than I was in any of the KPFs last year. Those KPFs all had so,e question marks about them whether it be size, production, consistency, physiciality or lacking more than one dimension but Schache doesnt, he's a great size, he's capable of winning and drawing the ball rough different ways, he's got runs on the board and performs consistency and is a great mark. I see no reason why he doesn't make it.

As for a comparison, it's a tough one again. I'm running with elements of Josh Bruce's game combined with parts of Tom Lynch's.

 

[GT619]

Do you really think Carlton need a midfielder over a key position player such as Weitering or Schache?

SOS wants weitering high on his list

 

[marleyblue]

It depends on the relative abilities and ceilings of said midfielders and KPPs. In general I've seen clubs win flags with forward lines without gun key forwards or backs. Ive seen success in sides who have played an undersized forward line. The common denominator of success is a an excellent midfield.

Cripps? sure. Docherty? If he plays in the middle, sure.

Aside from that there's just not much.

They may not have had the best start to 2015 but do you not rate Murphy an Gibbs at all? Carlton's needs are glaring in most areas but KPPs are surely our biggest deficiency - if a quality KPP is there at our pick I have no doubt that is the way we will go.

 

[MightyDons4]

They may not have had the best start to 2015 but do you not rate Murphy an Gibbs at all? Carlton's needs are glaring in most areas but KPPs are surely our biggest deficiency - if a quality KPP is there at our pick I have no doubt that is the way we will go.

Neither Murphy nor Gibbs are in your flag window

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Neither Murphy nor Gibbs are in your flag window

I don't think anyone currently alive is in their flag window.

 

[marleyblue]

Neither Murphy nor Gibbs are in your flag window

All the more reason to grab talls first

 

[Crippa16]

Skippos,what do you think SOS will do ? Will he go for Schache/Weitering or the best mid, which way do you think he'll go ?

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Skippos,what do you think SOS will do ? Will he go for Schache/Weitering or the best mid, which way do you think he'll go ?

According to a recent article Sos likes Weitering.

 

[Skippos]

They may not have had the best start to 2015 but do you not rate Murphy an Gibbs at all? Carlton's needs are glaring in most areas but KPPs are surely our biggest deficiency - if a quality KPP is there at our pick I have no doubt that is the way we will go.

Murphy's best came when he wasn't the best midfielder in the side. As Judd weakened, so did he. Gibbs I'm undecided on - he's been trash this year but not sure if that's mick or that's him. We'll see when he returns, either way, both for mine are good players but not reasons why a team wins. Ideally they're 5-8 on a list types not 1-3

 

[Skippos]

Skippos,what do you think SOS will do ? Will he go for Schache/Weitering or the best mid, which way do you think he'll go ?

I don't particularly know. He's shown a willingness to draft defenders early before so I've got to go with Weitering at this stage especially given the media speculation but so much water is yet to go under the bridge. I suspect it'll be a 190+ player at the very least.

According to a recent article Sos likes Weitering.

And last year St Kilda liked Petracca. And wright was the consensus #1 at this stage.

Media speculation is more often than not wrong. They've just got to put articles out there, it's their job. Plus, so much smoke and mirrors is played anyway.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

And last year St Kilda liked Petracca. And wright was the consensus #1 at this stage.

Media speculation is more often than not wrong. They've just got to put articles out there, it's their job. Plus, so much smoke and mirrors is played anyway.

True Skip but were the media that wrong last year? As you mentioned, there were three potential pick ones near the start of the season but it became pretty clear that it was a two horse race reasonably early on. Then closer to draft night the media were spot on that StK would take Paddy.

While the media often get a lot wrong, the draft is one thing they're pretty good at getting right. Is Shifter Sheehan's opinion that different to clubs recruiting staff at the very pointy end of the draft?

The pointy end of the draft is reasonably transparent amongst recruiters you only have to read the mock drafts from the media experts. Admittedly the accuracy improved a lot closer to draft night.

Interestingly Derek Hine on the AFL podcast made special mention of Weitering and Parish but had a few negatives to say about Mathieson. Now this is one instance I could see the recruiter downplaying a draftee to hope they slide. Mathieson did train with the Pies over summer.