Skippos's 2015 Draft Resource

[Skippos]

On an individual basis think you are doing Ah Chee an enormous disservice. You seriously think a 15 year old capable of giving an interview like this on his background and family history is a risk of being a dickhead? In terms of personality, he's streets ahead of his contemporaries regardless of whether their skin is black or white. He also has an older brother who knows the AFL system well and is very highly regarded for his level headed personality at Port. He's been in 'the system' all the way through and knows what will be expected of him from next year onwards.



I would go as far as to say that I'm more convinced of his qualities of a person than as a footballer, and that says something given his talent. I have not been able to catch him in any games this year, but my impressions from last year were that I thought he suffers a little bit for being a bit too versatile. I felt he needed a lot of space to gain the advantage over his opponent when playing as a key forward which is obviously a luxury at the professional level and as a midfielder he wasn't quite there yet in terms of having a consistent impact. Those impressions were made with him being an underager, so reading too much may be a bit harsh perhaps.

To go back to your original point about the risk of aboriginal recruits, I think whilst it should be acknowledged that there has been some bad cases in the past, but to automatically presume guilt is a dangerous attitude to take when you look at how impressive and considerate a guy like Ah Chee comes off in that interview. Dayle Garlett has a lot to answer for.

I agree, to automatically presume guilt is a dangerous attitude. But before doing due diligence would you expect a club to put themselves at risk. Attrition rate for indigenous players at a guess is about 20-30% while its 1-3% for white kids. With pick 10 in the draft, you can either pick an 8/10 with a 20% chance of leaving the competition or a 7/10 with a 2% chance. I know what I'd pick. Yes, one specific case doesn't have a high chance of backfiring but if you make that decision 10 times, you likely lose two players.

I agree that the attrition rate is a serious issue and we should be investing whatever resources we can into significantly lowering it and allowing for an easier transition for these talents.

Disagree that Dayle Garlett has a lot to answer for. He, Relton Roberts, Zephaniah Skinner, Tim Sumner, Brad Hartman, Josh Simpson, Dom Barry, Murray Newman, Liam Patrick, Rex Liddy, Carl Peterson, Troy Taylor, Nathan Krakouer, Liam Jurrah, Nathan Djerkurra, Andrew Krakouer and Terry Milera all have a collective lot to answer for, and that's just those I can remember. There's just too many examples of failure to maximise talent plus premature retirement/delisting due to inability to cope with the demands to ignore. Granted, none of those players bar simpson and newman were first round picks so perhaps you could argue that those who do go early have been heavily looked into and assessed as low risk, as the attrition rate is significantly lower for those picked inside the first round to outside it. Perhaps it's a case of the first round talent who are assessed as risky slips or that thise who are picked in the first receive more support; but there certainly is an issue that we can't just ignore - to an extent, rendell was right.

 

[Bishop]

It's a long year lads, wouldn't get too stressed over where he's ranked, pre-champs rating don't mean too much. Just wait for the U18 Champs and we'll see what he's capable

 

[jjami15]

It's a long year lads, wouldn't get too stressed over where he's ranked, pre-champs rating don't mean too much. Just wait for the U18 Champs and we'll see what he's capable

No, no actually I'll take what Skippos has put forward thank you. Also with Aish to Adelaide and their pick of Schache will be fine also. Thank you and have a nice day.

 

[God Save Max King]

I disagree with that comment re Ah Chee, Skippos.

I think you pick the 8/10 and back your club to retain and develop his talent. Ah Chee is quality player and I think he'll be very handy, any team with great development and off field management will develop him into the star he can be.

 

[Skippos]

No, no actually I'll take what Skippos has put forward thank you. Also with Aish to Adelaide and their pick of Schache will be fine also. Thank you and have a nice day.

If Adelaide finish where I project, I doubt they'd give their first for Aish barring a form revival. I certainly wouldn't - not because I want him on the cheap, but because I don't feel he's worth it. With high end midfield talent for them to equal or increase their worth by the end of their second year, you'd want them to show real signs that they belong in the league and can be a building block of a successful 22. In Aish I've seen him stamp authority on two games in two years. I've also seen Dean Polo do that. Aish to me has an attitude problem and is out of contract but not only that, he's just not shown any year to year improvement. He won a SANFL premiership at 16 as a top 10 player in that side. At 17 he won another premiership with very little increase on his output compared to his bottom age year. He had a mediocre champs. At 18 he showed flashes but again was a 15-25 player on that list and this year he's taken no steps forward. He was the best 16 year old in the country by a country mile but he's still a very similar player now to what he was then. He's always been a 12-18 touch ball user with a minimal but promising inside game and never shown much more. Given his minimal improvement over the last four seasons, I have to use that as a sample to predict the future which means projecting future minimal improvement. He's either an early peaker or someone with so much natural talent that it carried him as a junior but doesn't have the work ethic to make gains at afl level. Given the attitude I've seen of him over the last two years I susoect the latter.

To me, Aish's current worth is pick 17-25. I'd expect a package In that range which will still net them a quality player. I'm hearing a lot to indicate that he wants to move to a Melbourne club too, not Adelaide.

 

[blueiris]

As good as WeiterIng is Brisbane might be sick of Liam Pickering by the end which could put them off

 

[Skippos]

I disagree with that comment re Ah Chee, Skippos.

I think you pick the 8/10 and back your club to retain and develop his talent. Ah Chee is quality player and I think he'll be very handy, any team with great development and off field management will develop him into the star he can be.

Its a compelling argument and one I normally subscribe to - you favour quality at all costs. I'm just beginning to think that there comes a line where backing yourself in becomes an unnecessary risk.

That said I'm really liking Ah Chee as a clear cut forward - gives me a bit of a forward only Jack Martin vibe. I do expect him to rise on my board, though I'm worried about the supply from the seemingly substandard WA midfield again as players like Ah Chee often rely on others to bring them into the game, especially at junior level.

 

[Wizard17]

Picking Brayden Fiorini as my bolter Skippos can't see a guy who uses the ball like he does and constantly racks up 30+ disposals getting past the 2nd round especially if he plays a good champs.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Great work as usual, Skippos.

 

[Gmod23]

Skippos. After watching our side this year & understanding our recent draft picks, what do you think we need?

 

[Barrels]

Jade Gresham has to be rocketing up the order Skip.

Averaging a tick under 33 touches, and a touch over 7 marks and 5 tackles a game, as well as a goal a game. Super consistent.

Might be shorter than ideal at 177cm but his numbers last year as an underager were comparable with the likes of Petracca, and not only is he leading the Knights this year, but he's achieving all of this in a fairly poor side.

The kid is a certified gun.

 

[TradeDraft]

I think Collingwood would draft a KPF before a Small Forward.

Though with Us getting Wiedleman with the 2nd Rounder would help that but you don’t know that when Picking with your 1st Round Pick

 

[Skippos]

Skippos. After watching our side this year & understanding our recent draft picks, what do you think we need?

I still maintain that you need four things.

1. Outside midfielder/s in the Hill/s mold - your ball movement is quick but the side isn't. Look at what JJ can do with your current game style; imagine if you had a genuinely elite outside mid doing that.
2. Key defender - Talia has surprised me but he's best suited as a second defender or even third. You need that defender who can match up on the gorillas - and currently you're exposed as, and I'm sure I'll incite some Bulldogs' dislike for this, Talia isn't very good. I'd be looking at Rory Thompson through free agency.
3. Elite kicking half back - JJ isn't. Webb I don't think long term is a defender nor is his kicking elite... merely good. Lindsay Gilbee type. Murphy won't be around forever and will leave a gaping hole. Riley Bonner could be your man. Darcy Tucker could fill #1 or #3
4. Second KPF - You all think you need one and I'm not too sure. I too would like to see Stringer move into the middle but if he's going to play like this forward then why wouldn't you move him? He's already top notch by #2 forward standards. That said the flexibility it'd offer would be great; I'd be looking at Curnow or Burton types in this draft.

 

[Skippos]

Picking Brayden Fiorini as my bolter Skippos can't see a guy who uses the ball like he does and constantly racks up 30+ disposals getting past the 2nd round especially if he plays a good champs.

He's certainly one I'm watching. Early season indications are good and I expect to have them confirmed at the championships - looks a go-er.

 

[Wizard17]

He's certainly one I'm watching. Early season indications are good and I expect to have them confirmed at the championships - looks a go-er.

Got 37 disposals on the weekend playing with a broken toe.

 

[Skippos]

Jade Gresham has to be rocketing up the order Skip.

Averaging a tick under 33 touches, and a touch over 7 marks and 5 tackles a game, as well as a goal a game. Super consistent.

Might be shorter than ideal at 177cm but his numbers last year as an underager were comparable with the likes of Petracca, and not only is he leading the Knights this year, but he's achieving all of this in a fairly poor side.

The kid is a certified gun.

Gresham is typically the kind of player I underrate and I acknowledge that. I'm naturally a little cynical until I see him perform at a higher level. I'm very low on stats in general - of all the watchers out there I probably place the least emphasis on them. Someone like Jordan De Goey averaged 14 touches last year and so far (at least in my eyes) looks, behind Heeney, to be the next best midfielder from that crop. It's not so much about how much a player can accumulate the ball but how they get it the flashes they show with it. I would like to see more of Gresham at the champs but from what I've seen so far - he's the best of a bad bunch. In rubbish teams someone has to get the ball, and often in struggling sides players look for their better players more often than in successful ones which inflates their figures. I don't feel he has a dominant inside game - he's capable through effort but at his size he's fighting an uphill battle with very few high level inside midfielders in the comp at 177 cm. On the outside he knows how to receive and I've heard a lot of people rave about his kicking but again, I don't see it. It's improved I'll concede but I haven't seen him break games open with it - he favours conservative options and nowadays it's all about taking risks. At his height I'd like to see him really try and gain some heavy metres by foot but he often favours sideways, backwards or 20 metre chips instead of backing himself which is why his efficiency is so high. In general I see him as a Nathan Hrovat kind of player but, at this stage, not as good.

That said I haven't seen enough of him this year (with the footage I've obtained limited compared to last year) to be entirely confident in my assessment so I'll be looking to re-evaluate over the next two months.

 

[Skippos]

I think Collingwood would draft a KPF before a Small Forward.

Though with Us getting Wiedleman with the 2nd Rounder would help that but you don’t know that when Picking with your 1st Round Pick

Perhaps - especially with Reid looking increasingly likely to be in the medical room more than out of it and Moore and Marsh being developed down back. I don't like Gault at all - so yeah, it's a glaring list need. With Cloke at 28 I do think now is the time to recruit another KPF and give them 3-4 years to develop so they're primed to slot right into the gap he will leave; hopefully to compliment Moore. I agree with you and if possible, future updates will reflect that - I don't think Weideman is the answer at all, he to me doesn't seem a first round prospect and the first round is where you secure value with KPFs - anything later and they're more than likely to be busts. He doesn't feel dominant enough as a junior compared to past success stories and while he's scoring goals - it's not like the game revolves around him as it has for past elite KPFs.

 

[Wizard17]

I still maintain that you need four things.

1. Outside midfielder/s in the Hill/s mold - your ball movement is quick but the side isn't. Look at what JJ can do with your current game style; imagine if you had a genuinely elite outside mid doing that.
2. Key defender - Talia has surprised me but he's best suited as a second defender or even third. You need that defender who can match up on the gorillas - and currently you're exposed as, and I'm sure I'll incite some Bulldogs' dislike for this, Talia isn't very good. I'd be looking at Rory Thompson through free agency.
3. Elite kicking half back - JJ isn't. Webb I don't think long term is a defender nor is his kicking elite... merely good. Lindsay Gilbee type. Murphy won't be around forever and will leave a gaping hole. Riley Bonner could be your man. Darcy Tucker could fill #1 or #3
4. Second KPF - You all think you need one and I'm not too sure. I too would like to see Stringer move into the middle but if he's going to play like this forward then why wouldn't you move him? He's already top notch by #2 forward standards. That said the flexibility it'd offer would be great; I'd be looking at Curnow or Burton types in this draft.

I think the main problem is that teams seem to use their 1st or 2nd KPD loose around Toyd because the know he is our only long bail out option bar Cordy (who is terrible over head). It is why I want us to get a second tall forward (194cm+) so we are less predictable and as you have said a KPD so Roughy can take the no1 ruck duties. Harrison McKay is big on the hit list being able to play ruck and having a huge amount of athleticism so is Harry Thompson due to his enormous running ability. Haven't seen much of Bonner but I'd be looking that way if his kicking is as elite as you say, I reckon Fiorini could make a very good kicking half back. I don't know about any hugely quick outside mids who'd be available later on.

 

[Barrels]

I think the main problem is that teams seem to use their 1st or 2nd KPD loose around Toyd because the know he is our only long bail out option bar Cordy (who is terrible over head). It is why I want us to get a second tall forward (194cm+) so we are less predictable and as you have said a KPD so Roughy can take the no1 ruck duties. Harrison McKay is big on the hit list being able to play ruck and having a huge amount of athleticism so is Harry Thompson due to his enormous running ability. Haven't seen much of Bonner but I'd be looking that way if his kicking is as elite as you say, I reckon Fiorini could make a very good kicking half back. I don't know about any hugely quick outside mids who'd be available later on.

Sam Skinner; 197/96, plays forward, back and as a sometime ruck.

He's your man.

 

[Skippos]

I think the main problem is that teams seem to use their 1st or 2nd KPD loose around Toyd because the know he is our only long bail out option bar Cordy (who is terrible over head). It is why I want us to get a second tall forward (194cm+) so we are less predictable and as you have said a KPD so Roughy can take the no1 ruck duties. Harrison McKay is big on the hit list being able to play ruck and having a huge amount of athleticism so is Harry Thompson due to his enormous running ability. Haven't seen much of Bonner but I'd be looking that way if his kicking is as elite as you say, I reckon Fiorini could make a very good kicking half back. I don't know about any hugely quick outside mids who'd be available later on.

Sam Skinner; 197/96, plays forward, back and as a sometime ruck.

He's your man.

Yup, this.

Skinner to me is a perfect list fit, I think he's a lock to be capable of playing that #1 defender long term but also has some scope as a forward. I don't think he'll go first round but if I was in a position like you guys are where there were specific needs holding pack the puzzle from being complete I'd probably be willing to bolt if necessary. Kyle Broadwood another who we'll see at the champs who I like the look of. Collins probably too small to play the role you'd be looking for.

 

[Barrels]

Yup, this.

Skinner to me is a perfect list fit, I think he's a lock to be capable of playing that #1 defender long term but also has some scope as a forward. I don't think he'll go first round but if I was in a position like you guys are where there were specific needs holding pack the puzzle from being complete I'd probably be willing to bolt if necessary. Kyle Broadwood another who we'll see at the champs who I like the look of. Collins probably too small to play the role you'd be looking for.

I'd love Skinner at the Saints as that development KPD we need to pair with Goddard.

He's a good solid talent, rather than elite, but he will never die wondering.

 

[God Save Max King]

Jacob Hopper and Matt Kennedy, wait until you watch these two in closer detail at Champs, will rise up your rankings, Skippos, have taken steps this year. Both can play, shame they're not in the open draft pool.

 

[Skippos]

Jacob Hopper and Matt Kennedy, wait until you watch these two in closer detail at Champs, will rise up your rankings, Skippos, have taken steps this year. Both can play, shame they're not in the open draft pool.

Saw enough of Hopper last year and have seen him once this year. Open to seeing more but at the moment I'm not entirely sold. More keen on Kennedy, haven't seen much of him and love what I'm hearing - almost expecting him to be ahead of Hopper for mine by year's end.

 

[Wizard17]

Yup, this.

Skinner to me is a perfect list fit, I think he's a lock to be capable of playing that #1 defender long term but also has some scope as a forward. I don't think he'll go first round but if I was in a position like you guys are where there were specific needs holding pack the puzzle from being complete I'd probably be willing to bolt if necessary. Kyle Broadwood another who we'll see at the champs who I like the look of. Collins probably too small to play the role you'd be looking for.

Skinner is one I've been keeping a close eye on but I view him as being inbetween our first and second he needs a good champs to govern higher selection especially with how I rate some of the mids and utities around our first selection.

It is why I'm keeping an eye on Harry Thompson from the Chargers has good skills for a tall and marks around the ground really well who could be around later and Harry McKay who could be our at our second.

 

[boxy99]

Picking Brayden Fiorini as my bolter Skippos can't see a guy who uses the ball like he does and constantly racks up 30+ disposals getting past the 2nd round especially if he plays a good champs.

Huge pies fan hope we get him.