Skippos's 2015 Draft Resource

[Wizard17]

7 overagers in Metro's squad, 6 In Vic Country's could see a few of them taken this year given the depth of this draft

 

[Gmod23]

7 overagers in Metro's squad, 6 In Vic Country's could see a few of them taken this year given the depth of this draft

Vic Country have a really strong squad. Would be happy with one of their 4 KPP to add to our squad.

 

[Barrels]

Had a lazy dip at how Country might line up...

FB: Capiron - Hearn - Collins
HB: Cole - Weitering - Rice
RK: Nyuon - Dunkley - Mathieson
CR: Templeton - Tucker - Parish
HF: Holmes - Skinner - Eades
FF: Ainsworth - Schache - McKay
IC: Brodie Johnson Buyx-Smith Curnow*

* want to hear more about his knee.

 

[Wizard17]

Had a lazy dip at how Country might line up...

FB: Capiron - Hearn - Collins
HB: Cole - Weitering - Rice
RK: Nyuon - Dunkley - Mathieson
CR: Templeton - Tucker - Parish
HF: Holmes - Skinner - Eades
FF: Ainsworth - Schache - McKay
IC: Brodie Johnson Buyx-Smith Curnow*

* want to hear more about his knee.

No Tardrew? On exposed form he should be playing.

 

[Skippos]

7 overagers in Metro's squad, 6 In Vic Country's could see a few of them taken this year given the depth of this draft

Overagers in metro's squad are due to the relative weakness of their crop. I like overagers playing as it raises the standard and provides some normally more hardened bodies. No point gifting games to kids who haven't earnt it nor are they real prospects. The amount in country's squad interests me though. They've got a good crop at least at the top end so either they're genuine prospects or country don't have the depth. We'll see as the champs unfold.

With overagers I domplace some emphasis on their birthday - late year birthdays to me shoupdmt be considered much different to the parish and tucker types of they perform well - it's like Jack Steele last year; he was only 3 weeks older than CP despite being a year earlier. If they're early year birth they're essentially a year closer to peak and have had year extra to develop so while I don't write them off the burden of expectations is higher.

Right now the overagers I'm looking at are Maishman - because his VFL production has been very solid, Buykx-Smith - because he showed great signs as a junior and players of his role take time to develop, Moore - obvious reasons, Kovacevic and Galloway - because rucks especially ones of their size just take that extra bit longer, Hinchcliffe - I'm intrigued, Markov - pure athleticism is worth the punt, Templeton - because he seems to have made massive improvements and Minogue - again, he intrigues me and I'd like another look.

As much as I'd love Mattingly to get drafted as he's a ripper kid we saw enough of him last year and he didn't really impose himself enough; he's the kind of kid who needed to play state league footy for mine and not tac. Ditto Answerth. Bampton is still the same player he was at 16, Capiron is a solid player but vanilla; perhaps he'd make an okay role or depth player though and Mennen didn't impress me enough last year. The rest I've either seen and thought meh or i haven't seen yet.

 

[Barrels]

No Tardrew? On exposed form he should be playing.

Probably, but there'll always be hard luck stories, and even then the lineup will change from game to game.

That's why there's a squad.

 

[Skippos]

Had a lazy dip at how Country might line up...

FB: Capiron - Hearn - Collins
HB: Cole - Weitering - Rice
RK: Nyuon - Dunkley - Mathieson
CR: Templeton - Tucker - Parish
HF: Holmes - Skinner - Eades
FF: Ainsworth - Schache - McKay
IC: Brodie Johnson Buyx-Smith Curnow*

* want to hear more about his knee.

Nice attempt. Part of me hopes they rotate Hearn, Weitering, Collins, Skinner, McKay and Schache out of the side. I feel it might be a little too easy especially for the forwards to dominate if they're playing on a third tall. I'd like to see Skinner played back predominantly and swung forward probably once or twice, ditto Weitering but also in the middle. I'd like to see how Collins goes on the bigger forwards as well as the mobile third talls and I'd like to see McKay if he's taking the #1 defender as well as seeing buykx-smith get a go. Not all of that is possible if they're all in the same side so I almost feel it'd be better for them to each play 4 quality games in their element than 6 games in a stacked side being played a bit out of position.

Curnow's injury is normally a 6 week kind of thing I believe. Means he'll likely be back just after the champs finish. If he's taken out some other tissue with the patella it might delay him I think but occasionally if it's a minor one he might be back in 2-4. But given he was stretchered off I reckon it was a bad dislocation.

Would also like to see Brodie get a good run at it. Really like what I see from him.

 

[Barrels]

Nice attempt. Part of me hopes they rotate Hearn, Weitering, Collins, Skinner, McKay and Schache out of the side. I feel it might be a little too easy especially for the forwards to dominate if they're playing on a third tall. I'd like to see Skinner played back predominantly and swung forward probably once or twice, ditto Weitering but also in the middle. I'd like to see how Collins goes on the bigger forwards as well as the mobile third talls and I'd like to see McKay if he's taking the #1 defender as well as seeing buykx-smith get a go. Not all of that is possible if they're all in the same side so I almost feel it'd be better for them to each play 4 quality games in their element than 6 games in a stacked side being played a bit out of position.

Curnow's injury is normally a 6 week kind of thing I believe. Means he'll likely be back just after the champs finish. If he's taken out some other tissue with the patella it might delay him I think but occasionally if it's a minor one he might be back in 2-4. But given he was stretchered off I reckon it was a bad dislocation.

Would also like to see Brodie get a good run at it. Really like what I see from him.

Agree with all of that Skip.

I would be absolutely stoked to get Skinner down to the Saints as a developing KPD pairing with Goddard.

Brodie is going to go very high next year IMO.

 

[jesterwester]

Honestly, and I'm going to get the 'PC police' onto me for saying this - but part of my concern is his Indigenous heritage.

It's just a case of the attrition rate being far too high - much too high to ignore, and by extension, indigenous players proving too risky for me to be game to select in the first round. With picks that are less valuable and more designed at taking punts on potential - sure. But not with picks that are designed to build a side. Josh Simpson is a classic example - Fremantle essentially lost a first round pick and the resources invested in Simpson and his wellbeing for nothing.

That said, from all reports Ah Chee is a grounded and fine gentleman so I look forward to more examples of him being no different to a normal player, along with Milera and Agius who are both exceptional talents. Last year I approached Garlett and Pickett with the same cynicism but through following them all year I realised that there wasn't the same level of risk with them. Still a risk though, it's just culture shock.

If this offends anyone, I apologise - I'm aware it's pigeon holing and lumping in the good with the bad, but unfortunately the attrition rate is something you just can't ignore, and I expect clubs won't 'ignore' it either for fear of being racist - a club won't select a player that comes with more risk over a similar level player who doesn't. With these players psych profiles and home visits are integral and given I'm not privy to that, I begin the year cynical and as I learn more, my opinion progresses - so far I've seen enough of Milera to be confident that he'll be one that gets the best out of himself.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

With regards to Ah Chee as a player - like Pickett last year, I'm not sold. Rioli's defensive pressure is next level and rare for a player of his type. Pickett last year had very little defensive running and forward pressure and I haven't seen that high level pressure in Ah Chee yet, likewise I haven't seen any indication of Ah Chee being a midfielder. To me he's a stay at home forward and will remain that way his whole career. Given that, the need to work both ways is imperative for him. Likewise with the game moving towards a more closed and flooded playing arena I favour forwards who can win their own ball instead of flanking and being fed it - like Ah Chee does. I think he'll probably make the grade but for now I'm just not sold that he's the complete product - and aside from one academy game - his production doesn't seem to indicate that either. I also rate this crop much higher than most by virtue of my love for this south australian crop. I suspect my assessment on Ah Chee isn't far off from others, it's just that I rate those around him as better prospects than others; it's all a bit relative. As, inevitably, I cool on some of these South Australians, I expect him to rise up to 13-20.

Thanks for the input- I really appreciate the time and thorough response.

It will be interesting to see how he goes this year. If he can show some midfield production in the champs (and maybe later in the year in colts/league) you would think it would push his stocks up. That speed + leap could make him a lethal prospect if he's willing to work hard enough when he doesn't have the ball.

What will work in his favour this year will be his brother, I think. Having his older brother in an afl environment already will mean he will have a fair idea of the work involved and the commitment required.

As for selecting indigenous young guys in the 1st round- I think you back in your recruiting team to do the research, then back the programs in the club to keep them motivated.

I know that's a fairly simple way to look at it- but I would hope that would be the risk assessment of any young draftee, regardless of race. If you're good enough to be picked in the 1st round, and all the work has been done by the recruitment team- then I would have no issue with it.

 

[Skippos]

Thanks for the input- I really appreciate the time and thorough response.

It will be interesting to see how he goes this year. If he can show some midfield production in the champs (and maybe later in the year in colts/league) you would think it would push his stocks up. That speed + leap could make him a lethal prospect if he's willing to work hard enough when he doesn't have the ball.

What will work in his favour this year will be his brother, I think. Having his older brother in an afl environment already will mean he will have a fair idea of the work involved and the commitment required.

As for selecting indigenous young guys in the 1st round- I think you back in your recruiting team to do the research, then back the programs in the club to keep them motivated.

I know that's a fairly simple way to look at it- but I would hope that would be the risk assessment of any young draftee, regardless of race. If you're good enough to be picked in the 1st round, and all the work has been done by the recruitment team- then I would have no issue with it.

On all counts I agree. Good post (Y).

 

[Bic]

Thanks for doing this, Skippos

Being a Carlton supporter, this is (sadly) currently what I am looking forward too...

I can't honestly see us passing on Weitering if he was available to us - just curious as to read your extended thoughts on why we would select Parish over him.

The way I see it, we need to sort the talls before the smalls.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Vic Country have a really strong squad. Would be happy with one of their 4 KPP to add to our squad.

The S/A squad is stronger IMO.

 

[Skippos]

Thanks for doing this, Skippos

Being a Carlton supporter, this is (sadly) currently what I am looking forward too...

I can't honestly see us passing on Weitering if he was available to us - just curious as to read your extended thoughts on why we would select Parish over him.

The way I see it, we need to sort the talls before the smalls.

It's more a case of 'I'll believe a KPD being selected with #1 when I see it' - it's just such a rare thing. I'm also of the school of thought that the midfield is the building blocks and the rest cream on top, if that makes sense. A club can win a flag without bookends but it won't win one without a good midfield. And, depending on trade week, Carlton's midfield is super, super weak. Jamison/Rowe/Jaksch isn't a great key defensive unit especially with Jamison getting on but it does the job - and if Giles gets his body right I think he could add to that. A Skinner/Collins type should be there at your second selection and present good value - however there won't be any elite mids left at that pick.

 

[Skippos]

Hi guys - I'm doing some part time writing for boundforglorynews this season.

Wrote a preview on the 10 players to watch from SA - it can be found here. Give it a look if you get some time! Feel free to ask me any questions in here - would have loved Olekalns and Dew in there too, they're class.

On another note, my first page will be getting a pretty substantial update tonight. Stay tuned!

 

[Wizard17]

On another note, my first page will be getting a pretty substantial update tonight. Stay tuned!

will do. This ain't going to take 3 days like before is it?

How quick is Partington?

 

[Skippos]

will do. This ain't going to take 3 days like before is it?

How quick is Parrington?

Nah, it'll be tonight.

Quick but not lightning. Lachie Weller style.

 

[Wizard17]

Nah, it'll be tonight.

Quick but not lightning. Lachie Weller style.

Thanks. Need to find someone with some really good leg speed either rookie or ND this year I reckon.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

On another note, my first page will be getting a pretty substantial update tonight. Stay tuned!

FINALLY!

It's like waiting for weeks to reveal the winner of a show.

 

[Wizard17]

Nah, it'll be tonight.

it is technically morning now

 

[Skippos]

it is technically morning now

I'm based in SA!

Clearly you are not aware of my sleep cycle! I'll be up working on this for awhile yet!

 

[Wizard17]

I'm based in SA!

Clearly you are not aware of my sleep cycle! I'll be up working on this for awhile yet!

Time Zones huh

I hope your sleep cycle isn't like mine

 

[Skippos]

Updated the OP power rankings (which are the most important to me and should be the greatest reflection at the moment!) but my computer is having serious problems at the moment that I can't fix so I haven't updated the mock or added in any of the 12 brief profiles I've currently done (sorry Wizard17!). A quick summary of some of the changes.

- Matthew Kennedy rises. Above Hopper even. I'm increasingly confident that Kennedy is the real deal - his club football career got in the way of his proper junior career hence the lack of exposure - as with all players who are more unknown as bottom agers, they start in the mid range and then bolt up mid year. Hopper also gets a bit of a rise as I've had another look and re-evaluated a little.

- Jordan Dawson rises into the top 20. I don't know why I had him in the 30s - he's an excellent player and that third tall type that completes a forward line. Keiran Agius also rises despite being omitted. I decided in a meh depth draft like this it would be irresponsible to ignore his talent and not place more stock in it. Will Snelling also rises a little - I'm becoming more and more excited by what he's producing on both sides of the contest.

- Brayden Fiorini also rises. A lot to like - but tnot sold. Theo Thompson enters in at #27 - I've had a look and I like what I see. I think he's the kind of player that will improve his stock over the championships.

- As expected, some South Australians take a hit. Presbury, Quinn, Cross and Hewett haven't done anything wrong, they've just been surpassed by some interstate players I've been able to evaluate more carefully over the last fortnight. I think Presbury especially may rise again, with all four having signs, especially Hewett, that they might make the grade. Maris Olekalns drops a lot of places. I like him but if Sticks is picking 23 other players ahead of him and he doesn't have a clear deficiency holding him back like Agius - then clearly I'm just wrong.

Apart from that there's a lot of minor shuffling now that things are settling in my head but nothing major. Feel free to ask any questions!

 

[Skippos]

I'm also going to have a guess at the AA side - but I expect it to be wildly wrong and would be happy to get 8/22!

FB: Aaron Francis (SA) - Kieran Collins (VC) - Darcy Tucker (VC)
HB: Riley Bonner (SA) - Jacob Weitering (VC) - Jade Gresham (VM)
CE: Will Snelling (SA) - Rhys Mathieson (VC) - Sam Petrevski-Seton (WA)
HF: Ryan Clarke (VM) - Joshua Schache (VC) - Ben Keays (QLD)
FF: Callum Ah Chee (WA) - Harry McKay (VC) - Jordan Dawson (SA)
RK: Jeremy Goddard (WA) - Jacob Hopper (NSW) - Matthew Kennedy (NSW)
IC: Jonty Scharenberg (SA) - Nash Holmes (VC) - Nick O'Kearney (VM) - Blake Hardwick (VM)

SA: 5, VC: 7, VM: 4, WA: 3, NSW: 2, QLD: 1

That FF slot is tough. Could be anyone - Hipwood, Chol, Strandica, Thompson, McKay, Strnadica, Smith, McClarty, Allen, Skinner - whoever I pick won't be right so I'm just going for who I think has the most talent. Gresham is on the back flank purely cause they'll stick some midfielder there so while it probably won't be him, it'll be someone - to pack in that extra mid. Mills and Parish haven't been considered due to ?s about injuries. I'd probably have Clark, Partington, Skinner, Tahana, Rice, Kerbatieh, Cole, Parrella/Dennis, Laguda and Theo Thompson as the other guys I think are a good shot.

My prediction for Larke is Will Snelling, with Rhys Mathieson and Jacob Weitering next in line and Jordan Dawson my smokey. For the Harrison I'm going with Kennedy. It was Mills until I heard about his injury concerns. He and Hopper next, with Lovell my smokey and Connor West/Brad Scheer my *real* smokies.

 

[Barrels]

I'm also going to have a guess at the AA side - but I expect it to be wildly wrong and would be happy to get 8/22!

FB: Aaron Francis (SA) - Kieran Collins (VC) - Darcy Tucker (VC)
HB: Riley Bonner (SA) - Jacob Weitering (VC) - Jade Gresham (VM)
CE: Will Snelling (SA) - Rhys Mathieson (VC) - Sam Petrevski-Seton (WA)
HF: Ryan Clarke (VM) - Joshua Schache (VC) - Ben Keays (QLD)
FF: Callum Ah Chee (WA) - Harry McKay (VC) - Jordan Dawson (SA)
RK: Jeremy Goddard (WA) - Jacob Hopper (NSW) - Matthew Kennedy (NSW)
IC: Jonty Scharenberg (SA) - Nash Holmes (VC) - Nick O'Kearney (VM) - Blake Hardwick (VM)

SA: 5, VC: 7, VM: 4, WA: 3, NSW: 2, QLD: 1

That FF slot is tough. Could be anyone - Hipwood, Chol, Strandica, Thompson, McKay, Strnadica, Smith, McClarty, Allen, Skinner - whoever I pick won't be right so I'm just going for who I think has the most talent. Gresham is on the back flank purely cause they'll stick some midfielder there so while it probably won't be him, it'll be someone - to pack in that extra mid. Mills and Parish haven't been considered due to ?s about injuries. I'd probably have Clark, Partington, Skinner, Tahana, Rice, Kerbatieh, Cole, Parrella/Dennis, Laguda and Theo Thompson as the other guys I think are a good shot.

My prediction for Larke is Will Snelling, with Rhys Mathieson and Jacob Weitering next in line and Jordan Dawson my smokey. For the Harrison I'm going with Kennedy. It was Mills until I heard about his injury concerns. He and Hopper next, with Lovell my smokey and Connor West/Brad Scheer my *real* smokies.

Gresham on a HBF?!

 

[Chaisa]

Who's Lovell tied to?

EDIT: oh he's Tasmanian lol.