Soccer betting (A thought for next season)

[rdangelo]

I was looking at the amount of draws from the Premier League, Division 1, Seire A & Bundesliga, and the amount of draws was roughly 3.2/10 per weekend per league.
Now, I know my leagues quite well and can more or less cut out a lot of obvious games that won't be draws.
If I were to (for next soccer season) choose 10 games each weekend that could be draws, at average odds of around $3.25 @ $20 per game:

3 draws = ((3.25*20) * 3 = 195 - 200 = a loss of $5
--------------------------------------------------

Now every exata draw will be $65 extra, so 4 draws = 260 profit of $60 and so on, but remember this is just for $20 on each game, if you were to place $50, 4 draws would profit you $150.

What does everyone think of this theory? It just popped in my head.

 

[johnnyhoward]

With Betfair odds on the draw are closer to 3.40 and over (from my experience) on those abovementioned leagues. But even then, you'd be cutting it fine as to whether or not you made a profit.

 

[rdangelo]

With Betfair odds on the draw are closer to 3.40 and over (from my experience) on those abovementioned leagues. But even then, you'd be cutting it fine as to whether or not you made a profit.

Well in that case:

$3.40 * 20 * 3 = 204 - 200 = $4 profit, at worst. Atleast you know you would at worst just about break even, with the chance of a few + $100 weekends.

 

[johnnyhoward]

Give it a dry run on the Austrian and Swedish leagues, which I think are still going Really, it's the only way to find out.

 

[Lion El'Johnson]

Well if you know your draws that well, wouldn't it be better to play the pools?

 

[Aussie Assault]

Post on here again when the leagues kick off next season and let me know how you're going. Post your bets on here before the round and I'll jump on board if your constantly collecting, or at least winning over a few weeks.

 

[MagpieScouser]

dont put chelsea .man u,liverpool or arsenal in them unless theyre playing away

 

[rdangelo]

Post on here again when the leagues kick off next season and let me know how you're going. Post your bets on here before the round and I'll jump on board if your constantly collecting, or at least winning over a few weeks.

I'm just saying if all the major top 5 leagues in europe average 3.00 draws a round, it shouldn't be too hard to select 4-5.
When season starts I will post my selections.

 

[Aussie Assault]

I'm just saying if all the major top 5 leagues in europe average 3.00 draws a round, it shouldn't be too hard to select 4-5.
When season starts I will post my selections.

Yes I know. I'm not having a go at you. I think that if you know what you are talking about with soccer then your idea has some merit, and I am interested to know how it goes. Like all gambling though, if it was a certainty then it wouldnt be called gambling.

 

[rdangelo]

I've just had a quick look..

I'll use this final weekend as a test round.

I'll post up the odds later.

I will use 12 games which I think could be draws:

Celta Vigo v Real Betis
Racing Santander v Levante
Recreativo Huelva v Espanyol
Catania v Chievo
Livorno v Atalanta
Parma v Empoli
Reggina v AC Milan
Siena v Lazio
Lorient v PSG
Monaco v AS Nancy
Nice v Le Mans
Valenciennes v Auxerre

If 5/12 of those landed, at $20 per game, would leave a little profit of $80-$100. 4/12 would have you slightly better than breaking even, or there abouts.

Lets see how it goes.

 

[Cassius_Clay]

How did it go?

 

[Daytripper]

How did it go?

1/12 (Nice v Le Mans)

Profit/Loss = ($3.25*$20.00) - (12*$20.00)
= $65.00 - $240.00
Loss = $175.00

Its a bad start but you will get those weeks every now and then.
Worth persisting with for a few months to get a better idea.

 

[Smokin]

Horrible selection of games tho. You have to use some soccer knowledge and common sense.

I only follow Serie A, and you selected 4 games which had teams fighting tooth and nail to stay in the top flight, against teams pretty much set in their positions, often fielding horribly understrength teams. There was not one draw in Italy in the last round, but there probably wasnt a game where both sides had something to play for either.

For example, Reggina playing a near Milan B team in Calabria, days after Milans CL celebration, with Reggina fighting for survival and Milan guarateed 4th spotwas always easy money on the Calabrese club. Im a Milan fan and I made money on that.

 

[rdangelo]

Horrible selection of games tho. You have to use some soccer knowledge and common sense.

I only follow Serie A, and you selected 4 games which had teams fighting tooth and nail to stay in the top flight, against teams pretty much set in their positions, often fielding horribly understrength teams. There was not one draw in Italy in the last round, but there probably wasnt a game where both sides had something to play for either.

For example, Reggina playing a near Milan B team in Calabria, days after Milans CL celebration, with Reggina fighting for survival and Milan guarateed 4th spotwas always easy money on the Calabrese club. Im a Milan fan and I made money on that.

I simply just picked 12 games, i put absolutley no thought behind it because it was the final round, a lot of those teams wern't even fielding there proper sides.
But on a normal week, you should be able to pull off 4/10, if not 5.