Stats That Matter

[Brackets]

Continued:





In each example, all players have at least played finals, collectively they've brought in players that are used to winning more often than not, and all have added premiership players. Now to compare with us:



Conversely we've added no premiership players, much less finals experience, and collectively our group are used to losing more than winning. The two that stand out here are Martin and Newnes - two of the three experienced players added last year have only won 25% and 35% of games throughout their careers.

For a team that consists almost entirely of players with no finals experience, and have collectively the worst winning percentage throughout their careers in the league, is it the right move to add 3 mid-long term players that have also no finals experience and an equally if not worse ingrained losing mentality.

I then took a look at all our additions during the rebuild (below).

We've added 30 players, of which:
- 0 are premiership players
- 19 had no finals experience
- excluding Betts, only 6 players that had previously won a final spent more than a year on the list

 

[Brackets]

As a final summary, here is our best 22 we've gone with this year and their career results:



Could be nothing in this at all, but across the park our players are accustomed to losing, our Captains are accustomed to losing, our senior players are accustomed to losing. Teams like Lions, Saints and GCS were probably similar but have sought to address this and add some successful players alongside the development of their kids, whereas we've almost entirely ignored this and have had barely any successful players surrounding our young talent while they've progressed.

I feel like we're expecting a lot for a group used to losing to turn this around, and while I don't mind Newnes for instance, I would question if targeting a role player with no career success was the right move.

I recall a lot of additions in the previous post from opposition were scoffed at or brushed off as no big miss, e.g. Hannebery, Birchall, Jones, Butler, Ellis etc. but all have provided their teams players that are used to winning, knows what it is to be successful, and are mentoring their developing players.

Look at the winning percentage of our young players, and even the likes of Cripps and Doc - there reaches a point where you have a Gibbs who has hit his prime, yet you're now questioning why he never fulfilled his potential and looks disinterested every other week. We're starting to question the progress of SPS, the effort of McKay, the impact of Cuningham, the existence of Fisher, whether Plowman and Murph should be similliing and joking with opposition after a bad loss.

Well, take a look at their career results. Then consider Gibbs had better results at the same stage of his career.

 

[Jabba73]

Brilliant line of thinking Brackets, will be discussed in the newspapers and on talking head panels over the next couple of weeks, once they figure out what you mean.

Most original thought this season!

 

[thylacine60]

Long post coming up. So I started thinking about this after the loss against Hawks - we're often focused here on age and experience (in terms of games played), and how that compares to our opposition of the day, but there's often little or no thought given to experience in terms of winning and finals.

So I started with our game against the Hawks:

View attachment 925501

Of those that played:
- 19 players have never played finals - 16 were from out team
- 17 players had won more than half their games throughout their career - 16 were from Hawthorn (Pitto for us)
- 9 players have won a premiership - all Hawthorn players

Such a huge discrepancy in winning experience and mentality, but Hawthorn is somewhat of an outlier so I compared us to Lions and Saints who came from a similar position to us.

View attachment 925503

As expected not so extreme, but still an obvious difference. Winning percentage is neutral rather than a losing mentality like ours, both have premiership experience and better finals experience.

Is this solely because they may be a year or two ahead of where we started. Perhaps, but I took at look at recent player additions for the 3 teams, to compare what experience each were bringing in.

Use of term "long post" an affront to Windhover.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Just keep in mind the players from winning cultures that we approached who chose not to join us. The problem is not our targetting, it is the lack of charm, corporate pull and charisma of our president and board to get deals over the line.

 

[thylacine60]

Half-time boundary line interview with Doc.

Hodge: "Just finally, Sam, what do you think you need to do to get back into the game?"
Doc: "Nothing we can do really. They are playing relentless footy and even worse our President lacks charm"
Hodge: "Go join your team-mates, Sam".
Doc: "Cheers, Luke".

 

[Brackets]

Remember when Perdido got 30 touches and 2 goals in his debut for us, and we all thought he was going to be the answer? No you don't, cause Hodgey forgot to tell him to join his teammates and he's never been seen since.

 

[thylacine60]

that's what happened......damn you hodge, perdido could have been anything.........

 

[katmanblue]

With all of the talk about this bloke or that bloke don't tackle in these forums.


An interesting snippet about how CD record tackles.

Champion Data reveals its 'most misunderstood stat' - ESPN Video

In the #AskChampionData episode of the ESPN Footytips AFL Podcast, Christian Joly explains why the humble tackle is so misunderstood.

www.espn.com.au

Not sure if this is the right place for this. Mods, feel free to move if necessary.

On SM-N960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

An interesting comparison and a good reason why TDK should be our number 1 ruck.

Off his two game exposure TDK has been the number 2 ruck to Pittonet for 1 game v NN and had 11 hitouts. Last night he had 21 as the number 1 v Sean Darcy. Sean is ranked 10th for hitouts with 22 on average. If we persist with it for the remainder of the season that would be great but we can’t play the following in the same team. Who misses out;


Pittonet TDK Casboult Mckay (only 2 maybe 3)
Add to that Marchbank McGovern Curnow Weitering Jones. That’s 9 talls and 2-3 too many. Who misses out.

Pittonet, Marchbank and Curnow currently. Talls are going to want AFL games from our reserves and trades may need to occur. Can we hold Marchbank out long enough to replace jones. Can Pittonet hang around only to be replaced by TDK very soon. Casboult only has 1-2 years left imo so the injuries to our talls forwards are covered and they should surpass him very soon.

 

[BlueGum]

1
Goal from the boundary line after the siren FTW

 

[Arr0w]

After 8 rounds

Clubs		Results			For	Agt	Margin
Lions		Wins 0 - Draws 0 - Losses 8			73	99	-26
Saints		Wins 1 - Draws 1 - Losses 6			64	93	-29
Blues		Wins 4 - Draws 0 - Losses 4			69	67	2

Clubs		Results			For	Agt	Margin
Lions		Wins 1 - Draws 0 - Losses 10			77	98	-21
Saints		Wins 1 - Draws 1 - Losses 9			68	95	-27
Blues		Wins 5 - Draws 0 - Losses 6			63	66	-3

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

If honey plays on Friday and Carlton wins he will be The first player in a very long time where there first 2 games were wins. Kreuzer lost game one but one game 2 and 3 in 2008. So who was the last Carlton player to win their first two games.

edit - Fevola won his first 4 in 99.

 

[Arr0w]

If honey plays on Friday and Carlton wins he will be The first player in a very long time where there first 2 games were wins. Kreuzer lost game one but one game 2 and 3 in 2008. So who was the last Carlton player to win their first two games.

edit - Fevola won his first 4 in 99.

ASOS?

 

[Arr0w]

Ah Deluca

 

[JustaBattler]

If honey plays on Friday and Carlton wins he will be The first player in a very long time where there first 2 games were wins. Kreuzer lost game one but one game 2 and 3 in 2008. So who was the last Carlton player to win their first two games.

edit - Fevola won his first 4 in 99.

We won't lose a game if Honey is playing - the kid is a star and hasn't kicked his first goal yet - such a tease.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Half-time boundary line interview with Doc.

Hodge: "Just finally, Sam, what do you think you need to do to get back into the game?"
Doc: "Nothing we can do really. They are playing relentless footy and even worse our President lacks charm"
Hodge: "Go join your team-mates, Sam".
Doc: "Cheers, Luke".

. If you considered that Barrassi, Elliott, Pratt would charm recruits, present their future, do deals you might reconsider your view. MLG hasn't got it.

 

[Jabba73]

. If you considered that Barrassi, Elliott, Pratt would charm recruits, present their future, do deals you might reconsider your view. MLG hasn't got it.

Good, helped us avoid Shiel

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

Carlton are last in the afl for disposal efficiency. Despite being 6-6 were still a work in progress. Imagine how good we can become despite our our composite issues and umpire intervention for bias.

Cottrell has a lot of work to do. 41% disposal eff. Was going at 12% at half time. And despite being a very defensive player laid 0 tackles. He’s out next week for O’Brien Dow kennedy Cuningham.

Walsh 11.5 km (2.2 km at high speed) ranked 3rd which is surprising. GC had top 2 on ground. GC as a team team travelled nearly 1 km further than Carlton. I thought we had the extra dud off.

 

[katmanblue]

Carlton are last in the afl for disposal efficiency. Despite being 6-6 were still a work in progress. Imagine how good we can become despite our our composite issues and umpire intervention for bias.

Cottrell has a lot of work to do. 41% disposal eff. Was going at 12% at half time. And despite being a very defensive player laid 0 tackles. He’s out next week for O’Brien Dow kennedy Cuningham.

Walsh 11.5 km (2.2 km at high speed) ranked 3rd which is surprising. GC had top 2 on ground. GC as a team team travelled nearly 1 km further than Carlton. I thought we had the extra dud off.

Probably because we had the ball more. They had to chase us around.

On SM-N960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

With four winnable games to Carlton could very well be in that premiership conversation statistically according to Max Barry and squiggle.

 

[Bryce Bubbles]

As a final summary, here is our best 22 we've gone with this year and their career results:

View attachment 925645

Could be nothing in this at all, but across the park our players are accustomed to losing, our Captains are accustomed to losing, our senior players are accustomed to losing. Teams like Lions, Saints and GCS were probably similar but have sought to address this and add some successful players alongside the development of their kids, whereas we've almost entirely ignored this and have had barely any successful players surrounding our young talent while they've progressed.

I feel like we're expecting a lot for a group used to losing to turn this around, and while I don't mind Newnes for instance, I would question if targeting a role player with no career success was the right move.

I recall a lot of additions in the previous post from opposition were scoffed at or brushed off as no big miss, e.g. Hannebery, Birchall, Jones, Butler, Ellis etc. but all have provided their teams players that are used to winning, knows what it is to be successful, and are mentoring their developing players.

Look at the winning percentage of our young players, and even the likes of Cripps and Doc - there reaches a point where you have a Gibbs who has hit his prime, yet you're now questioning why he never fulfilled his potential and looks disinterested every other week. We're starting to question the progress of SPS, the effort of McKay, the impact of Cuningham, the existence of Fisher, whether Plowman and Murph should be similliing and joking with opposition after a bad loss.

Well, take a look at their career results. Then consider Gibbs had better results at the same stage of his career.

Great posts! Last year Brisbane had some amazing finals type players in hodge but still went out in straight sets of the finals. I like that out boys are building something special together and not chasing Finals players (they may have though but we never knew about it). I don't think it is as simple as they don't know how to win. We have won many games this year that last year we would have lost. Also there is something to be said about the rill
We hopefully are on and the the enthusiasm ie doggies 2016 we could harness.

 

[thylacine60]

60 - 27

 

[Countryblueswitnotattoos]

Here are some stats that don't matter. ..

After last night, our season is evenly balanced:

• We have played 12 games, for 6 wins and 6 losses
• We have scored a total of 756 points for the year
• Scores against = 756 points
• We are 9th on the ladder out of 18 teams
• Our average score is 63 points per game
• The average number of games played on our list was 63 at the start of the year (ranked 9th in the competition)
• We have kicked 108 goals for the year
• ...and 108 points
• If there seems to be a theme of 6's & 3's, well 6 x 6 x 3 = 108

So if you are wondering what does all this means? Answer: I have too much time on my hands

 

[Arr0w]

Clubs		Results			For	Agt	Margin
Lions		Wins 1 - Draws 0 - Losses 10			77	98	-21
Saints		Wins 1 - Draws 1 - Losses 9			68	95	-27
Blues		Wins 5 - Draws 0 - Losses 6			63	66	-3

After 12 rounds

Clubs		Results			For	Agt	Margin
Lions - 2018		Wins 1 - Draws 0 - Losses 11			76	97	-21
Saints - 2018		Wins 1 - Draws 1 - Losses 10			67	98	-32
Blues - 2020		Wins 6 - Draws 0 - Losses 6			63	63	0