Opinion Stephen Silvagni

[SkyhorseTamer]

Show me where I was bullying any poster and if I did I will apologise

Unless you mean that troll that was just suspended, while others thought he was a concerned supporter thanking Bolton

We are an easy target.

 

[murphster]

What is the story with McGovern this year? I haven't seen any Carlton games (I've seen hardly any Adelaide ones) - but that bloke is super-talented. I'd have rated him our most wanted to keep forward last year.
Has he been injured, or underperformed, or blown up his diet??? Has he actually been bad, or just not up to expectations?

Cheers.

He’s been fine just needs a full pre season under Russell to get really fit and then we will reap the rewards with his versatility and his mongrel on full display, has still kicked the second most goals and is a great set shot.

 

[murphster]

Are you in advertising? You can spin anything. If you aren't in advertising or politics you should seriously try. You would make a fortune.

What if didn't do the trade and got picks 1 and 2? Pick 2 is better than Stocker and Pick 12. Pick 2 would get us a Taranto.

Not in this draft it won’t.

 

[gbatman]

There’s failing and there’s being 1-10 in the fourth year of a rebuild after going 2-20 last year. It’s not just the amount of losses either. It’s the way they’re happening, particularly the last three weeks.

I never expected giant improvement this year. I did expect to win more games than last year though and be ahead of last year’s tally by now.

Aware that SOS in his position had to take some gambles, but nobody on here knows what other options he had. I just raises eyebrows to me that it has continually been GWS players. Before you respond about them having a heap of players and having to move some on I’m well aware. Out of those deals he’s gotten Marchbank and Plowman who have been consistent fixtures in our teams. Not exactly a great return. Marchbank I have rated but as time goes on I continue to worry about his skills.

Injuries haven’t hurt us as much this year but they killed us last year and probably impacted on our ability to attract any good mature aged players.

I have never been of the opinion that SOS is going to draft an entire list in four years. Never.


When I talk about support for Cripps I’m talking about the midfield as a whole. The last two years we’ve basically run out there with a Melbourne 2009 like midfield plus Cripps. I am never going to agree that that’s beneficial to the footy club long term. It can’t be good for the likes of Dow, Fisher etc to have so much expected of them. As for Cripps, him being the only player of note in the middle and being a target every week for the opposition isn’t a good thing. He’s a fantastic player and it would be a travesty if anymore of his career carries on in the way it has when it comes to wins or he burns out because he didn’t have support soon enough.


Since when is there some required order to draft players? We’ve had enough assets to find a small forward or two. The lack of small forwards has hurt us enormously whenever we go forward. It isn’t as though SOS has drafted so perfectly with latter picks that he couldn’t instead have taken a punt or two at a small forward. I brought up Richmond because they’re a good example of taking a few gambles on small forward structure with later picks or rookie picks. You don’t have to be a good side to do this.

Disaster may have been too harsh a word. But it’s not good. Judd said himself the club didn’t expect to be so low on the ladder. The trade was absolutely a gamble that we would not be on the bottom of the ladder. Sure we’ve got Stocker and a pick but we’ve traded away a very valuable pick. You bring up the lack of experience, I’m sure there’s a club or two out there that would give up good senior players for pick 1.

Melbourne did a similar trade and ended up traded away the pick that landed the Giants Josh Kelly. When you trade away a high pick you are trading away a high probability of a gun player.

I have blamed the past before. But I’m saying you can’t just pin it all on that. SOS has had four years to bring in some experience. I haven’t expected him to solve the issue completely by now, but feel like even just one or two guys who can at least be okay at AFL level would have been enough to have an impact, particularly in the midfield. They don’t even have to be that great. In my opinion the likes of Matt Wright, Sam Kerridge etc had an impact at some stage at Carlton. This year we Newman has been the only one to do that. We’ve cut back the last two off seasons as though we’re just heading into a rebuild. I’m never going to believe that there weren’t a couple of those types out there. McGovern and Fasolo were picked up, but neither plays in a position of need. Fasolo in particular doesn’t like to chase. Chasing is something our forward line severely lacks.

Again, I’m not expecting us to instantly be good. I wasn’t overly excited going into this season purely because we didn’t add to the experience side of things in the off season.

My beef with Silvagni is that he doesn’t seem to value list spots as highly as he should. Lot of speculative late draft picks and poor pick ups like O’Shea. Hard for me to believe that weren’t some other options out there. Seen other clubs pick up numerous bargains that have come in and have an impact straight away. I don’t get how you can defend it as a maths thing. Obviously with later picks you’re not as likely to hit on those picks. But I’d still expect maybe one or two.

Maybe my expectations are a little too high. But four years in and watching a side that reminds me of Melbourne in their shambolic days with kids being bullied weekly is not what I expected at all. Don’t think the club saw it going like this either, hence why Bolton is now gone.

Yeah, we're a team of kids lacking prime age players, what do we expect. Sadly we have improved on last season but only slightly. It's a mistake to see a club have a few early picks and complain after a few seasons they are no good. Early picks or not they take time, not every player is Sam Walsh.

Well yeah GWS have the most available talent. A lot of successful clubs have also raided them so we are not the only ones doing that. We probably weren't able to raid the better player there because of the cost, multiple draft picks doesn't work for a club needing numbers. We didn't spend massive amounts on the GWS players for memory, we still took most of our premium picks to the draft.

And here we have top sides who have taken top GWS and GCS players who are injury prone and they have become top players. Not taking players because they are injury prone goes against a lot of really good players out there who had a lot of success after coming good. Not all player you pick work out, that has to be accounted for, i put Hawthorn's top 30 picks up from their early 00's rebuild, heaps of busts amongst them and it worked out well.

If you aren't of the opinion SOS isn't going to get the job done in 4 years then why the criticism? Most of the players seem pretty good to me, just young.
I hate the term support for Cripps. Whatever we do isn't going to change Cripps role or what he does, if anything it may just make him go harder. It's not all about Cripps. Just like it should never have been all about Judd yet it was. A midfield to be good must be good as a whole, not because of a star or two. Everyone needs to be skilled, strong, tough and able. We haven't got it yet, we've had a go at a few players and I am sure we will have a go at more. We just need to land them. Cripps as good as he is, it can't be all about him. If we win a flag we shouldn't be a side that falls right away if he is not there. Cripps is only 24 and has more than enough time in his career to be a prime age player in a top side at Carlton. It would be great to add a couple of strong mature bodies into the center, it's exactly what we need but they come at a price and we haven't been able to afford to hand over multiple early picks.

There is requirements and time frames to draft players. The gun talls and mids go early so you need to use early picks when you have them on those types and we have. Talls and inside mids take the longest to develop so you have to get them early. Small forwards seem to take the shortest time frame to develop plus they are the ones the most hurt by developing in a poor side. You need to get the ball to them and get it to them quickly otherwise they are a waste and we can't do that yet. A lot of good sides have taken their small forwards to the end of their rebuild and it worked out perfectly. Cyril Rioli, Daniel Riole etc etc came into teams already built, they were just the finishing touches.

If you build a side out of order you end up all over the place. half built midfields, good midfields with immature talls who by the time they mature the midfield is gone. We're following a tried and trusted blueprint that has been used for years when it comes to rebuilding the long way through youth. You simply must get your longer developing players in early and your shorter developing players in later. We still have a midfield to build and perhaps a backline to bolster. We haven't had the resources to get small forwards in with prime picks. We've used a few later and rookie picks on guys like Lebois, Pickett, Gibbons and DeLuca who are potential small forwards and Fisher may well end up there when we bolster the midfield but for now we haven't got to it.

You used Richmond as an example, there's no backing out of that. They partook in a 7 year rebuild which finished in 2017 with a Premiership. So Hardwicks first draft was 2009. In 2015 they drafted their small forward line Rioli, Castagna, Lambert, Butler. We started our rebuild at the 2015 draft. If we follow Richmond's blueprint that would mean we don't draft our small forward line until 2021. All the good teams build a team the same way, start with mids and talls, focus on that until it's right and work on getting the peripheral less important/valuable players with rookie/late picks until every other area is complete and get the small forwards in if needed. It just is how it is. Yeah we need them now but it's more important to have other areas of the ground covered and if we find a good small forward along the way with a cheap pick then great! One less player to get and that has been done before. Puopolo was a 23 year old out of the VFL, same with Lambert so who knows. In a better team a Gibbons or DeLuca might take to the role.

Long story short, you start a rebuild, you don't want to be drafting players who are retiring and bombing out before the job is done, that is something that clubs who do it successfully just don't do.

I think the Stocker trade will become irrelevant in time, great the Crows can have a gun youngster. We can have three. We're still ahead if that is the case. It will become even more irrelevant if we happen to trade that pick which I think we will look to as we are coming into that phase we're it's now appropriate for us to take young mature talent with premium picks. There is also the other factor that we might not be last, there are 3 clubs ahead of us on only 3 wins so who knows. I just feel pick 1 or pick 11, you always look back and it's all a much of a muchness.

SOS was unable to bring in experience because of the past. Most clubs rebuild through trades/free agency because they have a solid foundation. We had no foundation and were forced to rebuild through the draft and with youth only. If we were a top or mid table team then we wouldn't have had to but we really were offered no choice. We need 25-30 good players to become flag contenders and build sustainability because of this we have had the needs to bring in players of a certain age group which started as a small slot and is not getting bigger. Because of this and our need to get players of a certain age every year so all mature at the same time and picks aren't wasted SOS has actually not had the opportunity to bring in mature players. Tried Shiel last year but wasn't to be.

This is what people don't get, if SOS goes to the 2015 and 2016 draft and drafts mature players then all the really top top young talent we have are at other clubs and our rebuild, instead of starting in 2015 starts in 2017 and currently we are a mediocre middle of the bottom 10 side who hardly has any players who will be in it's next premiership side. The opportunity to draft useful mature players is only happening now and who knows if we will be able to get them.

Yeah yeah trading high picks can work both ways, Collingwood have traded a few to build their side and they are contenders and were nearly premiers. In fact a lot of the better sides trade early picks. What you aren't remembering is we didn't just trade it for one pick we traded it for two early picks.

Kerridge would be useful but perhaps he didn't want to be a fringe player and perhaps we just wanted the list spot. I think we expected Kerridge would struggle to get a game and maybe he would have but even so he's not in our future and not a massive loss. You are going to have to believe those players weren't out there because they weren't. 3rd round picks are a lottery, 4th round picks are pure luck, same with the rookie draft, especially with an 18 team competition. It just is how it is. Study the draft and you will see. Gibbons, DeLuca are probably the best of "what is out there" and we have them.

O'Shea is a really bad example, he cost us a preseason draft pick which is a nothing pick. He earned it with good VFL footy and it was, his VFL game was quite good. Don't get me wrong there is the odd rookie who is really good and there are some pretty handy players in the 4th round but in terms of ones who would be making an impact now they would more or less just be some of our youth which is fine, the more good young players the better but honestly, taking a few older players with nothing picks really doesn't do much harm.

It is a maths thing. You have X amount of picks to bring in 25-30 good players who will all be peak and matured at the same time more or less and the quicker you do it the better the finished result and the greater sustained success you will have. You fu*k around with premium draft picks and use them on older blokes who wont be there at the end you start going the other way and end up with a half built rushed side that never peaks highly and doesn't last as long and here you are rebuilding from scratch again. Unless you can do a Brisbane and get a guy like Hodge for nothing you may as well go with youth or best available mature player with late/nothing picks. And I wouldn't be worried about a few duds. As I put up before, Hawthorn's rebuild had a heap of them, what they did right was they had a massive amount of top 30 picks. That's how they built what they had. What we are doing is very similar.

Yeah we all over rate our list because because we want to and because it is talented and it shows a bit some times but then we are reminded they are young and immature and that is hugely important. It doesn't remind me of Melbourne, their draft craft and list building wasn't that good. People always bag sides who rebuild with youth and point out Melbourne from years and years ago but forget Hawthorn also rebuilt with youth and drafting and quite heavily but they really had a lot more craft and foundation about them.

For me what we are doing works out. Five years of going nowhere and two years of rapid improvement. We're at year four so we are nearing the right end of things and we should be at a really good stage to bring in players with the field being much more open for us this trade/draft period.

I think we expected more competitiveness this season, I had us down for 4 or 5 games give or take and that may still happen but some players just don't look as good as hoped and perhaps that is losing patience, I mean you look at the ages and games played their stats are about average for that, unfortunately those stats don't make for a good AFL side.

I think you need to look at our recruiting as a whole and look at the number of quality young players coming in each season. All clubs have misses, that's normal, just reviewing SOS's recruiting I think it is above average. He's sown up all the tall positions. He's got a 1/2 to 3/4 built midfield. The backline is mostly built so a lot has been done. It's just about finishing the job the next few seasons and maturing these players. A lot riding on probably the next 3 recruitment periods. Will be better with Agresta there etc, the team was fairly bare when SOS arrived so it should improve, here's hoping.

For what it's worth, if we went down the mature player path and tried to get better quicker the end result would be very very bad.

 

[Blue and Blue]

Seems to me that there are some enemies of Carlton that haunt this place parading as do gooders. Trying to dislodge the club personnel one by one.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

We will get to see the real outcome of SOS’s work over the next 24 months, his future will depend on how that turns out as it should.

I just hope he doesn’t break open the purse for the wrong player in his quest to get a “name” as he will know full well he is under as much pressure as anyone at the club.

 

[murphster]

You’re kidding yourself. Seriously, I’m embarrassed for you. Arrow along with a few others, including Gbatman who just wrote a very logical post on why we are at where we are, are so far above you emotional, negative nancies, I really don’t know why they bother with you. Soapy V is also one of the most positive posters around and will always try to see another’s view if it has sound reasoning.

Exactly right McConville negativity without balance should be called out as it achieves nothing but disharmony, I have enough misery in my life without comingbpn here to listen to nothing but emotional vitriol towards the club and players we love, at least with Arrow and Soap you get positive well thought out opinions based not on emotion but rational balanced views on where the club is at.
Edit: Sorry you as well Blue

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

One thing I will add is when we keep saying we have only had 4 preseasons of rebuilding it is 100% correct but we have pretty much used 3/4 of a 5th seasons picks as well. Plus traded out 6 players of value. I also doubt anybody would trade our 5 years of picks we have used for ten years worth of picks from a team who was finishing mid table.
I’ve said before it before, no one here would trade our 2016 list for Geelong’s 2015. From that point on we have used easily over twice the value of assets they have. They are 10-1 and we are 1-10.
I’m not saying we should’ve followed their path (or capable of) but there is a middle ground that we probably should’ve been able to find with the ridiculous amount of top assets we have had to work with.

 

[murphster]

Yep Hodge is the on field coach we dont have.

We do he’s injured, Docherty

 

[Big_Luch]

Exactly right McConville negativity without balance should be called out as it achieves nothing but disharmony, I have enough misery in my life without comingbpn here to listen to nothing but emotional vitriol towards the club and players we love, at least with Arrow and Soap you get positive well thought out opinions based not on emotion but rational balanced views on where the club is at.

You can really say the same on the flipside.
Posters come on with reasonable questions about the club, coach and board and get shouted down.

Particular posters then take it upon themselves to be the arbiter on the posting quality of the ones they disagree with.

Both sides of the coin are as unproductive as each other, only one side has mod backing though.

 

[Manhattanite]

Seems to me that there are some enemies of Carlton that haunt this place parading as do gooders. Trying to dislodge the club personnel one by one.

Yes the Carlton Board and others are following cues from Big Footy...


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Gethelred]

You can really say the same on the flipside.
Posters come on with reasonable questions about the club, coach and board and get shouted down.

Particular posters then take it upon themselves to be the arbiter on the posting quality of the ones they disagree with.

Both sides of the coin are as unproductive as each other, only one side has mod backing though.

Agree with the post, save the last seven words.

We do probably need to collectively calm down a bit, take a step back, but some would do to realise that this is a supporters forum, with the key word there being support.

 

[gbatman]

Really good post and good reply.

Yes the malthouse period did so much damage, and left us threadbare. I get all of that.

However, I think SOS has had a narrow focus of talent identification. It seems it’s top picks or long shots.

Also the balance has been out of whack, we went mid heavy in the draft trade period last year, and even with Gibbons and now Deluca added on top, we are still light on for midfielders.

Also many small forwards come from late draft selections or rookie picks, and we haven’t really even bothered, and instead focused on formerly highly rated juniors.

Also letting Tuohy go basically because SOS wanted Marchbank, why? He’s injury prone and not really that good and from a list perspective not what we really needed.

It smacks of one guy having too much power and not being questioned, plus we seem very limited where we look for talent.

If SOS is hanging around those areas need to improve dramatically, to become a really good side we aren’t going to get there by treating any selection outside of the top 20 as a free hit.

Malthouse period was bad but the damage had already been done prior to that, it's just kept going through it. Around a decade of horrid drafting, it's a lot of missing players and sacked coaches.

Who are the long shots?

We went tall heavy early and then mid heavy. Or focus is fairly stock standard of most rebuilds. Get the most valuable and longest developing players in first and the ones who are usually found cheaper and develop shorter later.

We haven't had enough time to draft all the players we need. 4 years to build a list with 25-30 really good players and a best 22 of mostly 23-30 year olds is asking a bit much, it's not possible.

We have bothered. Pickett, Lebois, Gibbons and now DeLuca will be intended to be used as small forwards and so will Fisher if we can get our midfield built. We are trying to get them cheap but that doesn't always work out. Besides small forwards wont have an impact until the team is half decent, at the moment we can't get the ball and get it inside 50 so we really need to fix that first. Generally small forwards are the last thing you focus on as they can be found later, picked up cheaper and develop the quickest.

Have you followed Tuohy's season? He's played 5 games and struggled. Marchbank has played 5 and been alright as a defender in a weak side. Carlton's rebuild is going to come into completion around 2021-2022 where we will be looking at having sustained success from then onwards. Touhy will be 31-32 around then and might be about finished or retired. Marchbank will be 24-25 and right in his prime with years ahead of him. I believe Touhy's salary was also an issue as well but can't be sure of that.

 

[murphster]

3 wins in two years.

A list with no small forwards capable of applying pressure. A laughable amount of experience, particularly in the midfield. His drafting beyond the early rounds is very suspect.

I have said he has done a good job drafting many of the young guys we have. But if Bolton is going to cop criticism and even end up sacked, it’s ridiculous for Silvagni to keep escaping criticism.

If you think otherwise your head is in the sand.

His heads not in the sand at all, if you think someone else could have done better than SOS has in the last 4 years I can tell you where your head is.

 

[Gethelred]

3 wins in two years.

A list with no small forwards capable of applying pressure. A laughable amount of experience, particularly in the midfield. His drafting beyond the early rounds is very suspect.

I have said he has done a good job drafting many of the young guys we have. But if Bolton is going to cop criticism and even end up sacked, it’s ridiculous for Silvagni to keep escaping criticism.

If you think otherwise your head is in the sand.

Good post, save the final line.

Plenty to explore here, but also room for disagreement.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Clearly the entirety of the blame for our ongoing poor performance doesn't solely lie with Bolton. It's possible to support a club without kowtowing to every decision they make.

 

[Soapy V]

You’re kidding yourself. Seriously, I’m embarrassed for you. Arrow along with a few others, including Gbatman who just wrote a very logical post on why we are at where we are, are so far above you emotional, negative nancies, I really don’t know why they bother with you. Soapy V is also one of the most positive posters around and will always try to see another’s view if it has sound reasoning.

Thanks

Never seen Arr0w or myself try and "shut down" a discussion. Have an opinion or strongly disagree, Definitely, but this shut down BS is just wrong. Also, I have admitted numerous times i'm wrong but that seems to get missed. When it doesn't get personal I have some great conversations with posters I disagree with.

 

[Blue1980]

Malthouse period was bad but the damage had already been done prior to that, it's just kept going through it. Around a decade of horrid drafting, it's a lot of missing players and sacked coaches.

Who are the long shots?

We went tall heavy early and then mid heavy. Or focus is fairly stock standard of most rebuilds. Get the most valuable and longest developing players in first and the ones who are usually found cheaper and develop shorter later.

We haven't had enough time to draft all the players we need. 4 years to build a list with 25-30 really good players and a best 22 of mostly 23-30 year olds is asking a bit much, it's not possible.

We have bothered. Pickett, Lebois, Gibbons and now DeLuca will be intended to be used as small forwards and so will Fisher if we can get our midfield built. We are trying to get them cheap but that doesn't always work out. Besides small forwards wont have an impact until the team is half decent, at the moment we can't get the ball and get it inside 50 so we really need to fix that first. Generally small forwards are the last thing you focus on as they can be found later, picked up cheaper and develop the quickest.

Have you followed Tuohy's season? He's played 5 games and struggled. Marchbank has played 5 and been alright as a defender in a weak side. Carlton's rebuild is going to come into completion around 2021-2022 where we will be looking at having sustained success from then onwards. Touhy will be 31-32 around then and might be about finished or retired. Marchbank will be 24-25 and right in his prime with years ahead of him. I believe Touhy's salary was also an issue as well but can't be sure of that.

All fair points, though regarding the small forward business I can’t understand getting state league mids in gibbons and deluca and playing them as small forwards. Isn’t there some guys with goal sense out there we can try and snag with a late national draft or rookie pick?

I don’t have an issue with our drafting of players in the top 25 or so, our hit rate looks quite good there.

The long shots I’m taking about are Garlett, Pickett, Sumner, Gorringe, O’Shea, mullet, Shaw, smedts, Lang, Fasolo etc. I don’t include Lobbe (backup handy) or Palmer who was a salary dump designed to get Marchbank cheaper in terms of picks.

We also delisted guys a few guys who would of been no worse than those who replaced them (Holman, gowers, lamb, kerridge, hell even Boeky was better than some of the rubbish we kept and got after).

Common thread amongst many of the guys SOS got compared to the ones moved on? Their initial draft position, SOS doesn’t seem to ever forget, like if he was a pick 5 in 2014, forget his 5 injury plagued seasons since, we have ourselves a bargain.

Now I do believe we have a bit to work with on the list, but maybe get SOS to focus on what he is good at, getting deals done to maximize high end draft picks and leave the later picks, cheap experienced acquisitions and rookie picks to Agresta and co.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Not sure if I am a minority or not, but I don’t see why SOS takes any fall for this.. We have built a very good list.. sure a few fails misses like Kennedy and SPS, but as a whole we have the bones of a very good list which is why every available coach will be lining up for the job.

 

[ctwenty1]

T
This is very slanted.
Year 1 is a tick
Year 2 is a tick Don't agree- SPS is a tick Fisher at pick 25 is a tick. Both are forced to play inside when they are outside. Williamson and kerr were inspired late picks
Year 3. Dow and Obrien don't look good. De Konig looks inspired pick
Year 4. Walsh and Stocker look great

Don’t understand this writing off second year players. Dow and LOB will be fine

 

[Soapy V]

You can really say the same on the flipside.
Posters come on with reasonable questions about the club, coach and board and get shouted down.

Particular posters then take it upon themselves to be the arbiter on the posting quality of the ones they disagree with.

Both sides of the coin are as unproductive as each other, only one side has mod backing though.

1. Disagree with Yes, Shouted down, No
2. Just wrong

 

[TiAn_]

Look, things can always be better, but for mine SOS has overall done an outstanding job.

He came to the club with the directive to effectively blow up the list and start again, and that's exactly what he has done.

In his time at the helm he has brought through an enormous number of quality young kids who will form the core group to take us forward.

They just need time to develop. And that's not something we'll get overnight.

As an outside observer I’m staggered when I see Carlton supporters say things like SOS has done an “outstanding” job.

He’s had some good picks early doors, but he’s fluffed a few and traded in some real junk using some very good draft assets, whilst rarely finding late gems.

I know it’s a sensitive topic round here, but the pick swap with Adelaide was either a poor use of a highly valuable asset or a complete overestimation of his own handiwork vis-a-vis where the list was at. It also seem consistent with his conpulsion to overcomplicate things at the trade table for little reward, like 2016, when via a series of trades he essentially turned Zach Tuohy and a 2017 2nd into Marchbank, Smedts and Pickett.

The experienced players he’s targeted have frequently been underwhelming too. Using just my team as an example, cheap recycled players like Crozier (3rd), Duryea (4th) and Lloyd (4th) would be perfect for Carlton’s list, but he’s picking up blokes like Darcy Lang (4th + swap 4ths this year with Geelong) and targeting Fasolo and Bugg off the scrap-heap (likely because he’s used up all of his draft capital on the other trades that have failed to bear fruit).

He’s done more head-scratching stuff than a lot of other list managers and I think if he wasn’t a club legend he’d be more clearly in the firing line.

 

[Blue1980]

As an outside observer I’m staggered when I see Carlton supporters say things like SOS has done an “outstanding” job.

He’s had some good picks early doors, but he’s fluffed a few and traded in some real junk using some very good draft assets, whilst rarely finding late gems.

I know it’s a sensitive topic round here, but the pick swap with Adelaide was either a poor use of a highly valuable asset or a complete overestimation of his own handiwork vis-a-vis where the list was at. It also seem consistent with his conpulsion to overcomplicate things at the trade table for little reward, like 2016, when via a series of trades he essentially turned Zach Tuohy and a 2017 2nd into Marchbank, Smedts and Pickett.

The experienced players he’s targeted have frequently been underwhelming too. Using just my team as an example, cheap recycled players like Crozier (3rd), Duryea (4th) and Lloyd (4th) would be perfect for Carlton’s list, but he’s picking up blokes like Darcy Lang (4th + swap 4ths this year with Geelong) and targeting Fasolo and Bugg off the scrap-heap (likely because he’s used up all of his draft capital on the other trades that have failed to bear fruit).

He’s done more head-scratching stuff than a lot of other list managers and I think if he wasn’t a club legend he’d be more clearly in the firing line.

I agree, I think he has too much power and thinks he’s more clever than what he actually is.

 

[TiAn_]

As an outside observer I’m staggered when I see Carlton supporters say things like SOS has done an “outstanding” job.

He’s had some good picks early doors, but he’s fluffed a few and traded in some real junk using some very good draft assets, whilst rarely finding late gems.

I know it’s a sensitive topic round here, but the pick swap with Adelaide was either a poor use of a highly valuable asset or a complete overestimation of his own handiwork vis-a-vis where the list was at. It also seem consistent with his conpulsion to overcomplicate things at the trade table for little reward, like 2016, when via a series of trades he essentially turned Zach Tuohy and a 2017 2nd into Marchbank, Smedts and Pickett.

The experienced players he’s targeted have frequently been underwhelming too. Using just my team as an example, cheap recycled players like Crozier (3rd), Duryea (4th) and Lloyd (4th) would be perfect for Carlton’s list, but he’s picking up blokes like Darcy Lang (4th + swap 4ths this year with Geelong) and targeting Fasolo and Bugg off the scrap-heap (likely because he’s used up all of his draft capital on the other trades that have failed to bear fruit).

He’s done more head-scratching stuff than a lot of other list managers and I think if he wasn’t a club legend he’d be more clearly in the firing line.

The McKay and Curnow picks were great though. I skipped over that a bit because the point is that the questionable stuff really seems to outweigh those positives, from an outside perspective, and it’s a bit strange to read rave reviews of what he’s done.

 

[murphster]

We're **** because what happened before SOS.

Where are the good talented 23-30 year olds? Players drafted in the 2006-2014 Draft period. If we were half decent through this period we would be a top side by now. We would have strong bodies, leadership, ball winning ability and talent to go with all the top young players we have and we would not be a bottom side.

We don't have prime age talent therefore regardless of how good our kids are and how good our coaching is we are going to be ****.

We completely have our previous admin to blame, this will hang over our heads until our best 22 is mostly over 22 and we have had enough drafts/trade/free agency periods to make up for a decade+ of being basically absent from the draft..


Drafting History

Coach: Ratten
Recruiter: Wayne Hughes

2006 (30-31 year olds)
Gibbs - Good player, traded for kids etc.
Hampson - recruited a project ruck at pick 17, traded out.
Grigg - average player traded and retired.
Austin - bust
Benjamin - bust
Anderson - bust

Jacobs - traded away
Jamison - good value rookie, body didn't last long, good old fashion defender.

2007 Draft (29-30 year olds)
Kreuzer - Reasonable player, probably don't take ruckmen with early picks.
Browne - No Good.
Armfield - Good ordinary player, long retired.

Joseph - ok player, didn't last.
Ellard - ok player, didn't last
plus others

2008 (28-29 year olds)
Yarran - Talented, personality problems, traded out never got the best out of himself, long gone.
Robinson - Trier, maturity problems, lack of leadership around him, traded out for nothing, only now playing with maturity.
O'Keefe - bust, always injured
Tiller - bust

Garlett - Average player, traded out, struggling to keep his career going
5 absolute busts

2009 (27-28 year olds)
Lucas - bust
Davies - bust
Kerr - bust

Casboult - Handy journeyman
White - Was ok filling a role
Tuohy - Fairly good player traded out.
Plus 3 busts

2010 (26-27 year olds)
Watson - Bust
McCarthy - Bust
Mitchell - Bust
McInness - Bust
Duigan - Handy mature age player, long retired

Curnow - Drafted a bit older, been a good handy B Grade midfielder.
4 Busts

Chris Rogers promoted to head recruiter mid 2011

2011 (25-26 year olds)
22 - Bootsma - Bust
Rowe - Good journeyman
Buckley - Bust

Bell - was ok, C grade mid.
2 others

2012 (24-25 year olds)
11- Menzel - Bust
Temay - Bust
Graham - Bust

Mick Malthouse takes over as Coach

2013 (23-24 year olds)
13. Cripps - Superstar
Giles - Bust
Holman - B grader at another club

2014 (22-23 year olds)
19. Boekhorst - Bust
28. Viojo-Rainbow - Bust
Smith - Bust
Foster - Bust

Gowers - Partial bust, fringe player at Bulldogs
2 others

Silvagni Appointed as list manager
Bolton appointed as Coach

2015 (21-22 year olds)
1 - Weitering - Developing good young player.
10 - McKay - Developing good young player
12 - Curnow - mostly developed good young player
23 - Cuningham - developing good young player
Silvagni - fairly reasonable fringe player, better in a good side

No rookies

2016 (20-21)
6 - SPS - Talented young player but still developing.
27 - Fisher - Very talented young player still developing
Macreadie - Talented young player who's had a lot of injuries
Polson - Not looking good
Williamson - Talented player, always injured
Kerr - Has some talent but no spot for him

LeBois - Has some talent but has had a lot of injuries
Alex Silvagni - Older retired player
Gallucci - Bust

2017 (19-20)
3 - Dow - Looking like a Slightly above B Grade player but lots of developing
10 - O'Brien - Potential bust but too early to judge
30 - DeKoning - Talented but injured/
Schumacher - Has some talent but potential bust at this stage
Garlett - Probable bust

Shaw - Bust

Michael Agresta comes on Board

2018 (18-19)
1 - Welsh - Superstar
19 - Stocker - Looks good anything from a good solid player to star.
Silvagni - Very raw
O'Dwyer - Very raw

Goddard - Capable mature player
Bugg - Retired



Hawthorn Picks under 30 2001-2010

2001
Pick 20 - Elstone - 0 games

2002
8 - Luke Brennan - 28 games

2003
25 - Harry Miller - 18 games

2004
2 - Roughead
5 - Franklin
7 - Lewis
21 - Murphy - 112 average player
26 - Little - 1 game

2005
3 - Ellis - 120 games no star but ok player
6 - Dowler - 16 games
14 - Birchall
18 - Bailey - 43 games just a player
22 - Muston - 13 games

2006
6 - Thorp - Bust
24 - Renouf - 68 games average player

2007
12 - Rioli
29 - Whitecross - Good ordinary player

2008
16 - Schoenmakers

2009

2010
19 - Smith


Conclusion

1. We're **** because of what happened during the period before SOS and Bolton came to Carlton. This is because we lack prime age players and this is why we lack them.

2006-2014 drafts are the drafts where all the prime age AFL players were drafted. These are the draft periods which influence whether you are a good side in 2019 or not.

In those 9 drafts we drafted just 7 AFL capable players. Only 4 are on our list still. 1 is a star, 1 is ok, one is about cooked, 1 is below average.

2. Hawthorn's use of early round picks compared to us:

- They had 18 picks below 30 over 8 years. We have had 14 picks under 30 in 8 years. We had less because of changes in the AFL and only being managed properly the last few seasons.
- Hawthorn's drafting quality was 10/18 good players with early picks in that period.
- Ours is around 11/14 in 8 years and that includes some compromised Hughes/Rogers years of stuff all.
- SOS/Bolton era drafting in comparison to Hawthon's rebuild stacks up.
- Hawthorn had good senior players in their side and also drafted in mature players as well. We have not. We didn't have them and have not had the resources.

3.
Our drafting under SOS and now Agresta is proving to be somewhere between very good and above average. The players they have drafted are only just peaking into the age group where AFL players can have an impact. The drafting quality is actually pretty good in terms of hit and miss is actually pretty good with our early picks.

4.
We haven't had the resources or the time to fix over 9 years of really really bad player recruitment. SOS, Bolton and Agresta have only been to 4 drafts and have mostly taken youth. 4 years of rebuilding through youth on the back of over 9 years of really really bad player recruitment is why we are last on the ladder now. We're still making up for that.

9 Really good prime age players would make us a top side with the kids we have now. We have 1.

5.
We badly need to accept reality. This is a blame game and our previous regimes are to blame for where we are now. Our history still haunts us and will continue to until the majority of our team is aged between 23-30 and we have been to a few more drafts and recruited mature age talent.

6.
Young players are struggling to develop due to a lack of 23-30 year old quality players in the side.
This is why the team struggles structurally and functionally.
Ideal development environment is to only have a handful of players under 23 in the team, not most of them.

7.
You can spend 4 years drafting as good or better than Hawthorn did and coach them the same way and in the end it all comes down to what team you start off with and what team those young players are going into. You need the mature quality players.

8.
How are Bolton, SOS and Agresta supposed to make up for a decade of drafting next to no good players with 4 years and 4 years of really only drafting kids? People blaming who we have running the club now are not thinking.

Your exactly right and this has concerned me for a long time now, but what’s the answer, how do you develop young players with no mature ones to guide them. This is exactly what happened after the salary cap fiasco when most of our senior players all went over a couple of years and we never recovered from that, admittedly we now have a lot better young talent but is it possible to develop them properly in this environment of constant losses.
I just hope we can get some decent senior players at years end and that we choose a coach that can attract these players especially FA.