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Dee was pretty close to a lock iirc but Jesse was thought to be too. 43 could fit pretty well with your theory just thinking about it
Andy/Cody
Gen/Karla
Rachel/Jesse
Which could leave
Sue/Gabler
Sam/Cassidy
Teeny/Owen
Which would be a hell of a finale
Jesse had obvious winner edit for sure. I would say the difference between Rachel and him is that Rachel has won a heap of challenges so at F4 she has more control over her fate.
But hey it is still possible she gets done in fire. If Sam puts himself into fire and beats her, fair play, it would be a bit of a horror end to the season if she got beaten by Sue in fire