Swans, Crows not top two: Malthouse

[MaccasNeighbour]

I doubt that any Minor Premier in history has been rated such a low chance of winning the flag

Well we're not minor premiers, there's still 3 rounds to go. I'm not a betting person but I'm sure our odds would have been a lot greater in 97/98. Isn't that one of the great things about sport, winning against the odds? We know we're not favourites but we're sure as hell allowed to be optimistic.

 

[JockStewart]

Anyway if Mick and his vic posse have an issue with it then take up with dimwit and his band of merry men, don't go hating on clubs..we play whoever we are given by the AFL.

If the AFL engineered it this way thinking that adelaide and sydney will finish lower then thats there problem, not the crows or the swans.

 

[Doss]

Anyway if Mick and his vic posse have an issue with it then take up with dimwit and his band of merry men, don't go hating on clubs..we play whoever we are given by the AFL.

If the AFL engineered it this way thinking that adelaide and sydney will finish lower then thats there problem, not the crows or the swans.

Love how you turn this into an attack on those pesky, evil Victorians, rather than just taking it for what it is; Mick is misguided, simple as that.

 

[Syd]

...You can't try and compare travel schedules between a team from a 10 team town, and that from a previous 1 team town like Sydney.....they are always going to have to travel more.

...Collingwood play

Carlton, Essendon, West Coast, Geelong and Hawthorn twice - two mid table teams, and three strong teams

Hold the phone, but Collingwood REQUEST fixturing against Carlton and Essendon twice do they not?
So in comparison, you can't request 'blockbuster matches' against your oldest rivals and then complain about your wish being granted.

 

[doppleganger]

Yeah fair point. So basically it's ok to play GC/GWS twice each in a season as long as you don't win lots of your other games against decent opposition.

No team should have been given both GWS and GC twice.

34 doesn't divide into 23 rounds and with the priority being $$ not fairness we're going to have these issues every year. The AFL need to have some clear guidelines e.g. top 4 teams play each other twice the following season, same for bottom 4 sides, etc.

No that is what got the AFL into the mess to begin with, as Adelaide were bottom 4 in 2011 they were given the four gimme wins. Most people tipped Adelaide to improve as a result.

Adelaide have also won more than their fair share of games against good teams, but they now looking like a shoe in for top 2 (and home final) because of the easy fixture they were handed by the AFL. All of the other top contenders have tough run home....except Adelaide who get Brisbane, Melb and GC.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

The odds are there for a reason, the bookies don't like losing money

Yes some teams are better value than others

FWIW I don't think Hawthorn are particularly great value at $2.50

However you are certainly in the minority if you think that Adelaide represents terrific value at $7

I doubt that any Minor Premier in history has been rated such a low chance of winning the flag

Which is why it's such great value. A home final, followed by a weeks rest, followed by another home final, with also the chance of meeting Sydney in the grand final is most definitely a possbility. I know you refuse to believe that, but the chances of it happening are not as far-fetched as you're making it out to be.

 

[MaccasNeighbour]

The crows are a very good chance of finishing 1st, the four 'gimme' wins coming from GWS and GC being a massive leg-up, especially when they also get another 2 from the double of Port who just happened to be a rabble.

Adelaide may finish 1st, when with a less advantageous fixture they may be a 5th-6th type of team.

Some holes in your argument there bud:

1. All teams play GWS/GC at least once each so we're hardly given an extra 4 wins there.
2. You're assuming we'd lose to any other club we might have played e.g. if we had a return game against Sydney instead of GC I'd back us in for a win and our draw would then be deemed average instead of soft - we'd have the same number of wins and Sydney would be behind us.
3. Someone posted a ladder showing the results without any repeat games and we're still top 4.
4. Just like all other Perth, Sydney and Brisbane/GC the 2 local teams will play each other twice every season.

So how is it we get ranked down to 6th spot?

 

[doppleganger]

Hold the phone, but Collingwood REQUEST fixturing against Carlton and Essendon twice do they not?
So in comparison, you can't request 'blockbuster matches' against your oldest rivals and then complain about your wish being granted.

Who is complaining about that?

When Ess and Carl were super strong in late 90s, the two games were tough....
In mid 2000s when both were shizen, the two games were easy

They are now 'tough' again....but it is swings and roundabouts with those.

The other Collingwood return games...WC, Haw and Geel....the other 3 top 4 from 2011.

Adelaide get the double with Port every season, no different to our arrangement with Ess n Carl, but they were also gifted GC and GWS.

Getting GC and GWS, unless Adelaide get them for the next decade it will never even out. It was always going to be 4 wins (unless your Richmond) this year. A big leg up, and one that the AFL could have easily avoided.

 

[moses]

This Victorian angle that certain Sydney supporters keep going with is getting pretty annoying.

From what I can tell the AFL loves non-Victorian teams doing well. Poured plenty of money into game expansion into NSW, QLD, SA.

Sure Mick Malthouse (a guy who coached his team to something like 9 successive wins against Sydney) doesn't rate Sydney, neither does Necromancer Beth. But that's hardly representative of what the AFL, or Victorians think or believe. Sure the Melbourne based media outlets have a Victorian preference and focus, but
that's not all that surprising? Is it? That's their audience.

SA is a new market for football?

 

[The Karma Bus]

The crows are a very good chance of finishing 1st, the four 'gimme' wins coming from GWS and GC being a massive leg-up, especially when they also get another 2 from the double of Port who just happened to be a rabble.

Adelaide may finish 1st, when with a less advantageous fixture they may be a 5th-6th type of team.

North may finish 6th or 7th, when with a less advantageous fixture they may be a 9th-10th type of team.

That is why the focus is on Adelaide.

Gee nice way to dress it up to sound ridiculous.. 4 gimme wins + 2 from Port.. You're aware the other teams in the comp get to play these teams too? So it's at least 3 gimme wins.. Some clubs play GC or GWS twice.. There's another.. Some clubs play Port twice.. Some clubs play Melbourne twice.. Wouldn't say the Dogs have been too hard to beat - 5 wins and a percentage of 69%.. The only wins the Dogs have had are over Melbourne, GWS, Gold Coast, Port and North.. Oh..

You're also forgetting if you swap out our GWS or GC 2nd game, we don't automatically get a loss

Hold the phone, but Collingwood REQUEST fixturing against Carlton and Essendon twice do they not?
So in comparison, you can't request 'blockbuster matches' against your oldest rivals and then complain about your wish being granted.

I've brought this up but it gets conveniently ignored.. It's hard to play GWS and the like twice when you want to play your blockbusters twice like Essendon v Collingwood, Carlton etc..

They also didn't mind when Carlton, Essendon, whoever, were bottom and teams were getting 2 easy wins from that due to the play them twice rivalry guarantee

 

[Leather Poisoning]

SA is a new market for football?

Was more a reference to Port getting propped up in these tough times, although I won't pretend I'm completely across all the issues at that club though.

 

[doppleganger]

Some holes in your argument there bud:

1. All teams play GWS/GC at least once each so we're hardly given an extra 4 wins there.
2. You're assuming we'd lose to any other club we might have played e.g. if we had a return game against Sydney instead of GC I'd back us in for a win and our draw would then be deemed average instead of soft - we'd have the same number of wins and Sydney would be behind us.
3. Someone posted a ladder showing the results without any repeat games and we're still top 4.
4. Just like all other Perth, Sydney and Brisbane/GC the 2 local teams will play each other twice every season.

So how is it we get ranked down to 6th spot?

http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/with-or-without-new-rnd-19-update.html

Here is the ladder sans GC and GWS.

The interesting point is games played...come the end of the season Adelaide will be only 18. Adelaide have 4 gimme games, can rest players and get the big % boost.

Take them out and Adelaide would be back with West Coast/Geel challenging for 4th spot instead of most likely ending up in 1st.

Having the four games againt GC and GWS an enormous advantage in Adelaide potentially getting two home finals this year.

 

[MaccasNeighbour]

No that is what got the AFL into the mess to begin with, as Adelaide were bottom 4 in 2011 they were given the four gimme wins. Most people tipped Adelaide to improve as a result.

4 gimme wins? Every other team plays GC/GWS between 2 and 4 times. Where do you get 4 gimme wins? At best it's 2 and given our form this year we'd be likely to win against most other teams at home so I'd give you 1 game at most!

In any case my point is that the AFL need to make some transparent guidelines on the fixture; suggesting bottom 4 play each other twice the following season is just an example. Out of interest do you think it would be more fair for wooden spooner to play the premier twice the following season?

 

[mattymac]

All of the other top contenders have tough run home....except Adelaide who get Brisbane, Melb and GC.

would prefer a tougher run home so we would hit september in peak form. count yourself lucky and quit your whinging

 

[JockStewart]

One rule for the victorians another rule for the rest of us.

Seems fair..if you ask a victorian.

 

[SpeciousArgument]

http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/with-or-without-new-rnd-19-update.html

Here is the ladder sans GC and GWS.

The interesting point is games played...come the end of the season Adelaide will be only 18. Adelaide have 4 gimme games, can rest players and get the big % boost.

Take them out and Adelaide would be back with West Coast/Geel challenging for 4th spot instead of most likely ending up in 1st.

Having the four games againt GC and GWS an enormous advantage in Adelaide potentially getting two home finals this year.

Did you even read the post ???

Take those 4 games out and Adelaide go from 2nd to third

 

[moses]

http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/with-or-without-new-rnd-19-update.html

Here is the ladder sans GC and GWS.

The interesting point is games played...come the end of the season Adelaide will be only 18. Adelaide have 4 gimme games, can rest players and get the big % boost.

Take them out and Adelaide would be back with West Coast/Geel challenging for 4th spot instead of most likely ending up in 1st.

Having the four games againt GC and GWS an enormous advantage in Adelaide potentially getting two home finals this year.

And replace them against who?

 

[SpeciousArgument]

http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/with-or-without-new-rnd-19-update.html

Here is the ladder sans GC and GWS.

The interesting point is games played...come the end of the season Adelaide will be only 18. Adelaide have 4 gimme games, can rest players and get the big % boost.

Take them out and Adelaide would be back with West Coast/Geel challenging for 4th spot instead of most likely ending up in 1st.

Having the four games againt GC and GWS an enormous advantage in Adelaide potentially getting two home finals this year.

And there are 23 games in a season... 23-4 is not 18

 

[Jars458]

In Hawthorns last Premiership year, they played six teams twice. Melbourne, 16th, West Coast, 15th, Lions 10th, Richmond 9th, Collingwood 8th, North Melbourne 7th. So they didnt play any of the other top five teams twice. Rigged. Take the Premiership off them.

Sorry correction, they also played Adelaide twice who finished 5th.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Sydney have been largely ignored this year and for the past 10 seasons they have been treated with irrelevance from the vic centric media. It's like they have a template they drag out each year in regards to sydney. Every ****en year without fail they churn out the same crapola and still get it wrong. We have been 1st for a month and still no respect except for a few token articles here and there with the usual under current theme of "hawks and pies should be the real premiership favs" even after the hawks loose.

Sorry that you victorians are getting fed up with our attitude but frankly my dear we are sick and tired of the stupidity of the victorian media.

This ^ x 100 in 2003 we were favorites for the ****en spoon, 2005 no chance of playing finals (get criticized by the CEO about our gameplan i mean wtf?) every single year following our flag we wouldn't make finals in decline, really the only media personnel which seem to give us credit are Healy and Roos which in return get labeled as the most biased commentators ever

 

[MaccasNeighbour]

http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/with-or-without-new-rnd-19-update.html

Here is the ladder sans GC and GWS.

The interesting point is games played...come the end of the season Adelaide will be only 18. Adelaide have 4 gimme games, can rest players and get the big % boost.

Take them out and Adelaide would be back with West Coast/Geel challenging for 4th spot instead of most likely ending up in 1st.

Having the four games againt GC and GWS an enormous advantage in Adelaide potentially getting two home finals this year.

Dude it still has Adelaide ahead of WC/Geel, did you look at your own link or are you just stupid? If anything that link supports that Adelaide is a genuinely good team. It has Collingwood ahead of us by 1 game but they also have an extra game played. So we are challenging Collingwood for 2nd spot (where we sit now anyway). We are not challenging for 4th!

Again with the 4 gimme games????? Every other team play GC/GWS at least twice, some 3 times and Kangroos 4 times.
So you're telling me:

4 - 2 = 4
4 - 3 = 4
4 - 4 = 4

 

[Collingwoodity]

never seen so many adelaide supporters.

can someone swap geelong's draw with adelaide's draw and tell me what happens?

 

[SpeciousArgument]

Dude it still has Adelaide ahead of WC/Geel, did you look at your own link or are you just stupid? If anything that link supports that Adelaide is a genuinely good team. It has Collingwood ahead of us by 1 game but they also have an extra game played. So we are challenging Collingwood for 2nd spot (where we sit now anyway). We are not challenging for 4th!

Again with the 4 gimme games????? Every other team play GC/GWS at least twice, some 3 times and Kangroos 4 times.
So you're telling me:

4 - 2 = 4
4 - 3 = 2
4 - 4 = 4

Oh and also, 23-4 = 18??? I don't think you should be posting links to a site called 'Footy Maths'.

My guess is stupid.

 

[nowhereneargeelong]

A few weeks ago Mick said the Cats would miss finals.....

I agree that Adelaide will struggle but the Swans have what it takes. they only lost on Saturday because they blew easy chances to get a couple of goals clear in the last quarter.

He was a great coach and tactician but like most of his peers (former players- think Walls) in the media he continually makes generalizations that 9 times out of 10 end up being incorrect. I guess theses guys have to say something.

 

[doppleganger]

And there are 23 games in a season... 23-4 is not 18

There are 23 rounds in the season, each team plays 22 games though.

Is there such a thing as a quadruple facepalm??