Opinion Sydney Swans Academy and Rebuild

[Coasters7]

It's pretty part n parcel, club drafts a top 10 pick and puts in a few years for him. He crys homesick and gets traded for nothing.

I agree Richmond got him for cheap, but it's something which happens time and time again

Non-Victorian tax. Tim Kelly cost a kidney and you won’t see Luke Jackson or JHF go for 12 and 19. Taranto is a former pick 2 that is more established than either of those were/are.

If 12 and 19 is about right on points then it needs adjusting because I feel like the prices for Jackson/JHF/Kelly will be about right given you’re acquiring A-grade talent (draft picks outside the top 5 are overrated), the Vics just constantly get these players on the cheap.

 

[WillHayward]

Cats just win the flag by a country mile

Now getting henry (first rounder), bruhn (first rounder), bowes (first rounders) and pick 7.

Bigfooty focus on swans shitademy.

 

[BloodySwan]

Bruhn was taken pick 12, and was just traded for pick 18

12 is worth 1268 points, 18 is worth 985

Cats got Bruhn with a 23% discount - academy matching you need to pay more (only get 20% discount).

If I was a list manager I'd prefer the Cats approach. Much less risk when you allow them to train on someone elses dime and you get a greater discount!

 

[ChristianBoy]

Bruhn was taken pick 12, and was just traded for pick 18

12 is worth 1268 points, 18 is worth 985

Cats got Bruhn with a 23% discount - academy matching you need to pay more (only get 20% discount).

If I was a list manager I'd prefer the Cats approach. Much less risk when you allow them to train on someone elses dime and you get a greater discount!

Points are garbage and a useless way of valuing a player. Three garbage picks in the 30's do not equal a gun player.

 

[BloodySwan]

Points are garbage and a useless way of valuing a player. Three garbage picks in the 30's do not equal a gun player.

The points were based off of previous trades, the AFL didn't just make them up. Trades like these reinforce the points currently allocated are fair despite peoples feelings

 

[ChristianBoy]

The points were based off of previous trades, the AFL didn't just make them up. Trades like these reinforce the points currently allocated are fair despite peoples feelings

Garbage, In no world is pick 33 38 42 worth pick 9.

 

[SM]

Garbage, In no world is pick 33 38 42 worth pick 9.

You can keep screaming it it doesn't make it true.

 

[ChristianBoy]

You can keep screaming it it doesn't make it true.

In what world would a club take 33 38 and 42 to the draft rather than pick 9?

 

[SM]

In what world would a club take 33 38 and 42 to the draft rather than pick 9?

That's not the argument.

 

[ChristianBoy]

That's not the argument.

Points is a wank though no one cares for points unless your getting and academy kid. Morons that add to rubbish picks and saying the points equal a lower pick are fools. Eg David King

 

[JyeDye]

The points were based off of previous trades, the AFL didn't just make them up. Trades like these reinforce the points currently allocated are fair despite peoples feelings

That's not true. They're based on average salaries of each player taken at each pick to try and figure out their value.

 

[PhatBoy]

Never in all my sports following have I found a demographic who moan as much about a system as what afl fans do.

There are more than 10 players across the country in any given year who with the right management, training and development, who can become elite footballers.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

The thing that people are forgetting is that the salary cap is the other equalization measure at play here. It's not as if we can draft a heap of highly rated academy products and they sit outside the cap or anything like that. We still need to fit them under the cap with the rest of the squad. I'm sure if you looked at the number of top 10 picks, or top 20 picks on the swans list, there would be a fair few teams that have a higher proportion of high-end talent than the swans have on their list.

Heeney for example is rumoured to be on 850k per year, so it's not as if we get a discount on their salaries.

 

[WillHayward]

The hard fact is there are a significant portion of kids in the draft pool that don't want to leave their home State.
This is a fact.
The number is probably > 30% of all draftees.

Given 70% of draftees come from Vic then this gives Vic a massive advantage.

Northern State academies are absolutely necessary and absolutely fair.

Northern States have a situation where a third of the draft pool is essentially off limits.

 

[ChristianBoy]

The hard fact is there are a significant portion of kids in the draft pool that don't want to leave their home State.
This is a fact.
The number is probably > 30% of all draftees.

Given 70% of draftees come from Vic then this gives Vic a massive advantage.

Northern State academies are absolutely necessary and absolutely fair.

Northern States have a situation where a third of the draft pool is essentially off limits.

Fair for Sydney yes.

 

[Maddo11]

Fair for Sydney yes.

Are the other three fair?

 

[SM]

Fair for Sydney yes.

Have you ever heard of the notion that some inequalities are needed in order to make things equitable?

The picture on the left is what you've spent this thread screaming for.

 

[RUNVS]

I mean all you have to do is look at this years draft. Other than Cadman most of the top draftees look like they are going to be VIC Metro kids and we have seen both GWS and West Coast either trade up (GWS) or split their pick (West Coast) to avoid the cluster of VIC Metro kids as neither club wants to draft them.

The fact that non Victorian clubs have to try and avoid Vic Metro kids because of the huge risk of the go home factor is clearly a problem.

 

[RichLeMonde]

There are 10 Victorian teams, so Vic clubs have only a 1 in 10 chance of netting a homesick returning Vic.

 

[SM]

There are 10 Victorian teams, so Vic clubs have only a 1 in 10 chance of netting a homesick returning Vic.

And non-Vic clubs have a 100% chance of losing the homesick player.

 

[RichLeMonde]

And non-Vic clubs have a 100% chance of losing the homesick player.

This is such a myopic view.

A bloke on reddit worked out the state of origin of all AFL listed players (in 2019) - 2019 AFL listed players State of Origin

If we exclude players from Ireland, USA, Tassie and NT, then as %s, it works out to:

• Vic 468/795 players = 59%
• SA 121/795 players = 15%
• WA 119/795 players = 15%
• Old 41/795 players = 5%
• NSW/ACT 46/795 players = 6%

There are 18 teams - 10 Vic, 2 WA, 2 SA, 2 Old, 2 NSW

• Vic teams make up 56% of the comp
• SA teams make up 11% of the comp
• WA teams make up 11% of the comp
• Qld teams make up 11% of the comp
• NSW teams make up 11% of the comp

So WA and SA teams have more players in the comp, relative to the number of teams in those States, than the Vic, Old, and NSW teams. WA and SA teams should be getting the most homesick returners.

Queensland and NSW produce fewer players than you'd expect for States that each provide 11% of the teams in the comp. But to be fair, many players have seen those States as attractive places to live for lifestyle reasons. This helped Sydney net some of the greatest players the game has seen, including Plugger, Buddy, and Barry Hall.

It doesn't look to me like those clubs need such priority access to their academies' players.

 

[SM]

This is such a myopic view.

A bloke on reddit worked out the state of origin of all AFL listed players (in 2019) - 2019 AFL listed players State of Origin

If we exclude players from Ireland, USA, Tassie and NT, then as %s, it works out to:

• Vic 468/795 players = 59%
• SA 121/795 players = 15%
• WA 119/795 players = 15%
• Old 41/795 players = 5%
• NSW/ACT 46/795 players = 6%

There are 18 teams - 10 Vic, 2 WA, 2 SA, 2 Old, 2 NSW

• Vic teams make up 56% of the comp
• SA teams make up 11% of the comp
• WA teams make up 11% of the comp
• Qld teams make up 11% of the comp
• NSW teams make up 11% of the comp

So WA and SA teams have more players in the comp, relative to the number of teams in those States, than the Vic, Old, and NSW teams. WA and SA teams should be getting the most homesick returners.

Queensland and NSW produce fewer players than you'd expect for States that each provide 11% of the teams in the comp. But to be fair, many players have seen those States as attractive places to live for lifestyle reasons. This helped Sydney net some of the greatest players the game has seen, including Plugger, Buddy, and Barry Hall.

It doesn't look to me like those clubs need such priority access to their academies' players.

I'm the one with a myopic view. Lol.

Your post is a whole bunch of numbers and percentages that point to the conclusion that NSW/QLD produce less players relative to their proportion of sides in the comp, and then you just shrug and say that's not relevant.

 

[RichLeMonde]

I'm the one with a myopic view. Lol.

Your post is a whole bunch of numbers and percentages that point to the conclusion that NSW/QLD produce less players relative to their proportion of sides in the comp, and then you just shrug and say that's not relevant.

You seem to be taking the % of Vic state of origin players as somehow evidence of a trend for players returning to their home state. That is a non sequitur. One doesn't necessarily imply the other.

Since you're the one making the claim, why don't you dig up the stats on all players movements in the last 10 years, and demonstrate that Vic clubs are systematically benefitting from this?

I don't have time to do that, but this is what I'm noticing anecdotally. Plenty of players are moving to Brisbane and Sydney - as I mentioned, Plugger, Barry Hall, Buddy and Tippett for Sydney, and Daniher, Neale and Dunkley to Brisbane. At the same time, players are leaving GC and GWS in droves. But players are also leaving North Melbourne, and Adelaide. Basically, players are leaving clubs that have been run like shit, and are quite happy to stay at - or even move to - well-run clubs in Qld and NSW, namely Brisbane and Sydney.

 

[SM]

You seem to be taking the % of Vic state of origin players as somehow evidence of a trend for players returning to their home state. That is a non sequitur. One doesn't necessarily imply the other.

Since you're the one making the claim, why don't you dig up the stats on all players movements in the last 10 years, and demonstrate that Vic clubs are systematically benefitting from this?

I don't have time to do that, but this is what I'm noticing anecdotally. Plenty of players are moving to Brisbane and Sydney - as I mentioned, Plugger, Barry Hall, Buddy and Tippett for Sydney, and Daniher, Neale and Dunkley to Brisbane. At the same time, players are leaving GC and GWS in droves. But players are also leaving North Melbourne, and Adelaide. Basically, players are leaving clubs that have been run like s**t, and are quite happy to stay at - or even move to - well-run clubs in Qld and NSW, namely Brisbane and Sydney.

Where did I say Vic clubs were benfitting? Just that NSW/QLD clubs are losing out by having players leave.

When you have to go as far back as Plugger to make your point, it's not a very good one. To try to use Buddy/Hall/Plugger as examples of players 'wanting' to move to Sydney - when we had to pay shedloads for their services - makes my point more than yours. NSW/QLD clubs have to pay over the odds to even be in the market for that calibre of player.

Or did you forget just last season Dawson leaving us, and a few years ago Papley trying to leave and only staying as he was under contract? Perhaps you've missed the fact that Geelong are benefitting from Geelong Falcons players eager to go home - including Gary Rohan, although you'd have to remind me where he came from to join them - and Hawthorn picking up some bloke from some club who became a Brownlow medallist because he was fed up of waiting to earn his way into the Swans side.

I dunno, just a handful of examples off the top of my head that didn't take too much precious time to come up with.

 

[ChristianBoy]

How good is that StKilda can get Cam Mackenzie with a handful of late picks.