Analysis T8 vs T8 - after Round 23

[IdiotBox]

Note: Top 8 = T8 , Bottom 10 = B10

I was getting a little tired of hearing how awesome North are, sitting atop the ladder with an unblemished record. I get it that you can only play who you're drawn to play but there's certainly a fair bit of disparity in how many games current T8 teams have played against other T8 teams.
I've done the following chart to look at this in more detail.

The T8 have played 56 games in total. 26 of these were against fellow T8 teams and 30 were against B10 teams. There has only been one loss vs a B10 team (GWS lost to Melbourne in Rnd 1).

And, to North's credit they have knocked off both Top 8 challengers. Dogs, West Coast and Crows look a bit fragile and you'd have to be honest and say we will be scrapping with the other 4 for one of those top 4 spots.

I hope the chart below is self-explanatory. I'll refine it a bit more as I go.

The very left-most column is the actual ladder. The 3rd row then lists the T8 and the columns beneath each team show their wins/losses for the year so far.

So, for example Hawks have won 3 out of 5 against other T8s. West Coast have 0 / 3.

 

[tommyk72]

Note: Top 8 = T8 , Bottom 10 = B10

I was getting a little tired of hearing how awesome North are, sitting atop the ladder with an unblemished record. I get it that you can only play who you're drawn to play but there's certainly a fair bit of disparity in how many games current T8 teams have played against other T8 teams.
I've done the following chart to look at this in more detail.

The T8 have played 56 games in total. 26 of these were against fellow T8 teams and 30 were against B10 teams. There has only been one loss vs a B10 team (GWS lost to Melbourne in Rnd 1).

And, to North's credit they have knocked off both Top 8 challengers. Dogs, West Coast and Crows look a bit fragile and you'd have to be honest and say we will be scrapping with the other 4 for one of those top 4 spots.

View attachment 245295

Great analysis. Seems we've played the most other top 8 teams of any club. But we've also had two losses (though so have some teams above us). Good to now start getting a little bit of a run against the bottom 10 (exc. Sydney). It's funny, I wouldn't have thought that the bottom 10 had been so comprehensively beaten by the top 8 - I had the feeling the season was a lot more even!

Also interesting that Freo have played 5 of their games vs the top 8. Their 6th next week will make them the team who has played the most clubs in the top 8.

 

[IdiotBox]

Does anyone here envisage any other teams, other than maybe Melbourne and Port, making the T8? And who will drop out?

 

[Gold Member]

Note: Top 8 = T8 , Bottom 10 = B10

I was getting a little tired of hearing how awesome North are, sitting atop the ladder with an unblemished record. I get it that you can only play who you're drawn to play but there's certainly a fair bit of disparity in how many games current T8 teams have played against other T8 teams.
I've done the following chart to look at this in more detail.

The T8 have played 56 games in total. 26 of these were against fellow T8 teams and 30 were against B10 teams. There has only been one loss vs a B10 team (GWS lost to Melbourne in Rnd 1).

And, to North's credit they have knocked off both Top 8 challengers. Dogs, West Coast and Crows look a bit fragile and you'd have to be honest and say we will be scrapping with the other 4 for one of those top 4 spots.

I hope the chart below is self-explanatory. I'll refine it a bit more as I go.

The very left-most column is the actual ladder. The 3rd row then lists the T8 and the columns beneath each team show their wins/losses for the year so far.

So, for example Hawks have won 3 out of 5 against other T8s. West Coast have 0 / 3.

View attachment 245295

Good work.

However the way I read it I go down the left column, pick a team. Then scroll right to find how they went against a T8 opponent and find the result is reversed.
I'm no maths/statistic guy but I thought you always go down a column to find a reference point then work along that row to cross reference the 2 data inputs....

 

[Gaston]

Does anyone here envisage any other teams, other than maybe Melbourne and Port, making the T8? And who will drop out?

Pretty sad for a so called even competition that we are already down to 10 teams after round 7.
Some might stick their necks out and say the top 8 is finalised but Port may just turn it around, Dees can't be trusted just yet.

 

[Main Man]

I believe we only play 3 teams that are currently in the 8 for the remainder of the year, North & Sydney x 2 ad WC away.

We have got through the hardest part of the draw for us in ordinary form, I maintain we have not played particularly well but we are still in a great position and if we can build our form through the 2nd half of the year (some signs late last week) then look out.

The biggest thing for us is not dropping games that we shouldn't, have to make sure we beat teams like Melb and co who are on the rise whilst also trying to pick up 2-3 of the 5 remaining games against top 8 sides.

Sydney game next week is huge.

If I'm being honest not entirely convinced about Sydney, nice win against GWS and WC (jury out) but who else have they beaten? In our current form they probably are slightly ahead of us but their form is being overrated after beating up on poor teams and in fact almost losing one to Brisbane.

 

[IdiotBox]

Good work.

However the way I read it I go down the left column, pick a team. Then scroll right to find how they went against a T8 opponent and find the result is reversed.
I'm no maths/statistic guy but I thought you always go down a column to find a reference point then work along that row to cross reference the 2 data inputs....

I'm no maths/statistics guy either - hence the poorly considered / Frankenstein / bastard child of a spread sheet as provided.

 

[Davo23]

Does anyone here envisage any other teams, other than maybe Melbourne and Port, making the T8? And who will drop out?

Yes, it's obvious: Richmond to make a late run for 8th place.

 

[IdiotBox]

I believe we only play 3 teams that are currently in the 8 for the remainder of the year, North & Sydney x 2 ad WC away.

Hi Main Man - one of the tweaks I intend adding in the next iteration is how many games each team has remaining against T8 teams.
I tend to agree with your assessment of the $yd$. It's easy to look like a team of millionaires when you're pumping lower level teams and those performances artificially boost the confidence of all the young players. They've also had a relatively charmed run on the injury front too. They are just one bad Buddy injury or MRP judgment away from being ordinary. Have heard commentators lauding the newly minted champions in Laidler and Rampe FFS!
Conversely, even if Freo are actually sh!t this year, it can't help team morale if you are being hammered by the best clubs week-in and week-out on top of losing your Brownlow medallist.


Edit: Hawks have 5 remaining games against the current T8. 2 x Nth, 2 x $yd$, 1 x WCE (in Perth)

Nth have 9, Cats/$yd$ 7, Dogs / GWS / WCE / Crows 6

 

[Grumblez]

Good work.

However the way I read it I go down the left column, pick a team. Then scroll right to find how they went against a T8 opponent and find the result is reversed.
I'm no maths/statistic guy but I thought you always go down a column to find a reference point then work along that row to cross reference the 2 data inputs....

That's how I read a spread sheet/ chart I was looking at it for a min going wtf, then worked out it was backwards lol

 

[Main Man]

Hi Main Man - one of the tweaks I intend adding in the next iteration is how many games each team has remaining against T8 teams.
I tend to agree with your assessment of the $yd$. It's easy to look like a team of millionaires when you're pumping lower level teams and those performances artificially boost the confidence of all the young players. They've also had a relatively charmed run on the injury front too. They are just one bad Buddy injury or MRP judgment away from being ordinary. Have heard commentators lauding the newly minted champions in Laidler and Rampe FFS!
Conversely, even if Freo are actually sh!t this year, it can't help team morale if you are being hammered by the best clubs week-in and week-out on top of losing your Brownlow medallist.

I think Geelong are in the same boat to an extent, they beat us in Round 1 when we had 4 key outs and were a month behind in our preparation and they beat WC who have been putrid away from home, we beat them by 50 points with key injuries in what turns to be form well below our best.

Then they have beaten up on the bottom teams at Kardinia Park a ground which is of huge advantage to them.

Unfortunately they are certainties to finish top 4 but far from convinced they are that good at this stage.

The Dogs might have beaten Adelaide but have beaten nothing else and lost to both us and North.

We are far from our best this year and remains to be seen whether we can reach our peak but if we do I have no doubt it is still the best in the competition on what I have seen to date.

I actually think that GWS are probably the hardest team to beat when they are on, problem for them is that they might find it hard to maintain their best form throughout the year.

 

[IdiotBox]

That's how I read a spread sheet/ chart I was looking at it for a min going wtf, then worked out it was backwards lol

Jesus - everyone's a critic! (but i shouldn't be surprised given the user name yeah?)

Read the instructions people! I refuse to conform to mathematical norms...

 

[Blaze Storm]

While I can see the benefit of this as a simple analysis tool, it is obviously confounded by the fact that if you beat someone, they're more likely to be in the bottom 10 and you in the top 8.

What I mean is, if a team wins all their games (such as North), it's more likely that more of their opponents are going to be in the bottom 10, compared to teams who have lost to opponents are more likely for those teams to be in the top 8.

 

[IdiotBox]

While I can see the benefit of this as a simple analysis tool, it is obviously confounded by the fact that if you beat someone, they're more likely to be in the bottom 10 and you in the top 8.

What I mean is, if a team wins all their games (such as North), it's more likely that more of their opponents are going to be in the bottom 10, compared to teams who have lost to opponents are more likely for those teams to be in the top 8.

nah.. you've lost me there...

Yes - we do kind of expect T8 teams to beat B10 teams. Nothing rocket-sciency in that, but we do love it when it doesn't happen hence why we all hope like hell it happens to the other teams - not ours.
My humble little (work time waster) exercise is not meant to be any 'squiggle' equivalent. Merely an observation that some T8 sides have had an easier run of it than others. And that some of those at the bottom (Lions and Freo) have had a tougher run.
It also shows which T8 teams have acquitted themselves well (Nth) or poorly (WCE, Crows, Dogs) against other T8 sides.

Edit: Anyhow, I'll try and stop being so defensive and sensitive ( ) to the negative input and just go about my business. Follow the thread if you want or ignore it and go produce something yourself that will get the approval of a maths professor.

 

[Grumblez]

Jesus - everyone's a critic! (but i shouldn't be surprised given the user name yeah?)

Read the instructions people! I refuse to conform to mathematical norms...

Yea well it's my user name for a reason ! And I'm guessing the chart reflects your user name too?
And I didn't think I'd need to read the instructions on how to read a chart lol

 

[Argy]

Yes, it's obvious: Richmond to make a late run for 8th place.

And just fall short.

 

[Dewnior]

This is a very interesting piece of analysis especially in light of historical data that suggests the T8 in R7 pretty much stays the same for the rest of the season.

I don't have time to do it myself but it would be interesting to re-cut the data based on the number of remaining games T8 sides have against B10 sides because that would provide an indicator to the finishing order of the T8.

By my reckoning two thirds of our remaining games are against B10 sides.

 

[Hodginator]

Not a good look for WCE

Ps: nice work on the table

 

[HODGEYROAD]

So we have had a rather difficult schedule thus far.

 

[MightyHawks]

Yes but we really need the 4 points this week against the dockers

No value in a so called easy run if we don't get the job done

 

[Argy]

No value in a so called easy run if we don't get the job done

Nice rhyming.

 

[Blaze Storm]

nah.. you've lost me there...

Yes - we do kind of expect T8 teams to beat B10 teams. Nothing rocket-sciency in that, but we do love it when it doesn't happen hence why we all hope like hell it happens to the other teams - not ours.
My humble little (work time waster) exercise is not meant to be any 'squiggle' equivalent. Merely an observation that some T8 sides have had an easier run of it than others. And that some of those at the bottom (Lions and Freo) have had a tougher run.
It also shows which T8 teams have acquitted themselves well (Nth) or poorly (WCE, Crows, Dogs) against other T8 sides.

Edit: Anyhow, I'll try and stop being so defensive and sensitive ( ) to the negative input and just go about my business. Follow the thread if you want or ignore it and go produce something yourself that will get the approval of a maths professor.

I'm just saying you're drawing correlation, not causation. This doesn't mean it's not a well done table, and it will become more and more accurate as the season progresses.

 

[OnTheRocks]

Yea well it's my user name for a reason ! And I'm guessing the chart reflects your user name too?
And I didn't think I'd need to read the instructions on how to read a chart lol

Well you just have to think outside the box, like an idiot. Simple really.

 

[IdiotBox]

Well you just have to think outside the box, like an idiot. Simple really.

I think you, sir, have uncovered the method to my madness!

 

[IdiotBox]

Yea well it's my user name for a reason! And I'm guessing the chart reflects your user name too?
And I didn't think I'd need to read the instructions on how to read a chart lol

I would have thought that was obvious.