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TAB thread

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When and where is the race.

If there is only a small pool and the races is a few hours away then odds could be very different. TAB odds are done on how much is bet on each horse, so the TAB cant lose. Bookies take the risk on the race by paying set odds at the time of the bet. One punter may put a big bet on the horse taking up a lot of the pool. More than likely this would even out before the race starts and odds would be closer.
 
Axe Man said:
Question for any of you gambling experts - can anybody explain to me why a horse would be paying $21 for the win on fixed odds, but be the $3.80 favourite on the tote?
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Yeah what saint leo said. Obviously only a small pool at the moment and a large percentage of the tote money has been for the horse. Obviously take the bet on fixed odds as there may be a plunge and the horse starts short.
 
Here is my analysis of the first few races at Caulfield tomorrow.

Race 1 - Harrolds Fashion Plate 3yo C/G 1200m
1 - Yes Sir Yes Sir (10)
2 - Trounce (2)
3 - King Pulse (7)
4 - Governance (4)

Very difficult race to predict. A heap of chances so will try to pick some value. 10 has drawn the inside barrier so should push forward. He failed at group class two starts back but then romped in maiden last start. This is somewhere in between so should have every chance. Back each way. 7 was very impressive on debut and will probably start favourite on track.

Race 2 - Flight Cancer Foundation Hcp Open 1400m
1 - Romneya (2)
2 - La Rocket (7)
3 - Philda (1)
4 - By The Way (13)

Again a pretty open race. If you are able to pick the winner you will get good value. The little girl Romneya (2) always gives a good showing. Won carrying the same weight last time and should go close again. 1 and 7 battled out the finish at Mooney Valley a month back and both should be in the finish again.

Race 3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes 3yo fillies 1200m Group 3
1 - Avenue (4)
2 - Marquet (10)
3 - Rostava (2)
4 - Hilton Head (17)

Avenue will rightfully start the favourite. Impressive 2nd to Irish Lights 2 weeks back and then an impressive win at the Valley last start. Will be checking out the odds on course before backing it though, plenty of other good fillies in the race. If you are looking for value Marquet (10) looks good. SHe beat Manhattan Rain on debut and was sixth in the slipper before starting this campaign with a comfortable trial win. I think I will be backing her each way.

Race 4 PFD Food Service Schillaci Stakes 3yo and up WFA 1000m Group 2
1 - Wanted (11)
2 - Paprika (13)
3 - Apache Cat (1)
4 - Morgan Dollar (7)

The three year olds have a good record in this race and Wanted (11) looks a beauty. Great run in Manikato behind Slipper winner and the inside barrier should help his run on basis. Also love the look of the 13 and may put an each way bet on her if the odds on course are decent.


Rest will be up later.
 

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Race 6 at Caulfield tomorrow - All American. Got no idea about the horse just wondering if it is good value at $21, or is it likely to drift out to somewhere about those odds on the tote by tomorrow arvo anyway? Both odds from the tab website by the way.
 
Axe Man said:
Race 6 at Caulfield tomorrow - All American. Got no idea about the horse just wondering if it is good value at $21, or is it likely to drift out to somewhere about those odds on the tote by tomorrow arvo anyway? Both odds from the tab website by the way.
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Hmm, was a good second to Mic Mac, finishing only a length back three starts ago. Two runs since haven't been terrible either. 6th in the Sir Rupert Clarke coming from the back and without a clear passage last start. I prefer others but not without a chance.

Will probably start something similar on the tote to fixed odds, as plenty of good horses in the race.
 
Race 5 - Yalumba Stakes 3yo and up WFA 2000m Group 1
1 - Whobegotyou (6)
2 - Heart Of Dreams (7)
3 - Baughurst (5)
4 - Master O'Reilly (1)

Should really be fought out by the two favourites. Not much value on either and they look streets better than the field so load up on the quinella. Baughurt (5) races well at Caulfield and Master O'Reilly (1) is in good nick so if you are having a go at a trifecta include these two.

Race 6 - David Jones Toorak Handicap 1600m Group 1
1 - Rock Kingdom (5)
2 - Gold Salute (6)
3 - Rafaello (13)
4 - Racing To Win (1)

The magic winning formula here. Gai + 1600m = Money. Rock Kingdom was very impressive in winning the Epsom. Drawn wide but should be able to get across. Pretty open race however so if you like any of the others you should get some good odds. Gold Salute (6) rarely runs a bad race and should be close again.

Race 7 - Caulfield Guineas 3yo 1600m Group 1
1 - Manhattan Rain (2)
2 - Denman (1)
3 - So You Think (7)
4 - Trusting (6)

If Denman (1) races anywhere near his best he will win. Going to take him on however on the basis he looked a bit tired in his last start and the step up to 1600m. Manhattan Rain (2) did enough in his first Melbourne run and willing to bank on the Gai/1600m combo to come through with the goods again. So You Think (7) and Trusting (6) will be coming home strongly and look for them to do big things later in the carnival. Maybe even Cox Plate horses if they do enough here.

Race 8 - Sportingbet Hubert Power Stakes 2400m Group 2
1 - Kibbutz (2)
2 - Cape Cover (5)
3 - Shocking (13)
4 - Alcopop (7)

Kibbutz (2) is a former Derby winner and looks to be running in to some sort of form and back to a suitable distance. The odds on offer are ridiculous so snap them up with an each way bet. 5, 13 and 7 are all racing well and it wouldn't surprise to see any win.

Race 9 - Northwood Plume Stakes 4yo and up Mares 1200m
1 - Velocitea (3)
2 - Tootsie (9)
3 - Champagne Harmony (2)
4 - Russeting (1)

Tough mares race to finish the day. Backed Velocitea (3) at 8's last start and she deliver. Looks to be improving. Plenty of other chances however so go wide in the quaddy.
 
Surkin said:
Here is my analysis of the first few races at Caulfield tomorrow.

Race 1 - Harrolds Fashion Plate 3yo C/G 1200m
1 - Yes Sir Yes Sir (10)
2 - Trounce (2)
3 - King Pulse (7)
4 - Governance (4)

Very difficult race to predict. A heap of chances so will try to pick some value. 10 has drawn the inside barrier so should push forward. He failed at group class two starts back but then romped in maiden last start. This is somewhere in between so should have every chance. Back each way. 7 was very impressive on debut and will probably start favourite on track.

Race 2 - Flight Cancer Foundation Hcp Open 1400m
1 - Romneya (2)
2 - La Rocket (7)
3 - Philda (1)
4 - By The Way (13)

Again a pretty open race. If you are able to pick the winner you will get good value. The little girl Romneya (2) always gives a good showing. Won carrying the same weight last time and should go close again. 1 and 7 battled out the finish at Mooney Valley a month back and both should be in the finish again.

Race 3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes 3yo fillies 1200m Group 3
1 - Avenue (4)
2 - Marquet (10)
3 - Rostava (2)
4 - Hilton Head (17)

Avenue will rightfully start the favourite. Impressive 2nd to Irish Lights 2 weeks back and then an impressive win at the Valley last start. Will be checking out the odds on course before backing it though, plenty of other good fillies in the race. If you are looking for value Marquet (10) looks good. SHe beat Manhattan Rain on debut and was sixth in the slipper before starting this campaign with a comfortable trial win. I think I will be backing her each way.

Race 4 PFD Food Service Schillaci Stakes 3yo and up WFA 1000m Group 2
1 - Wanted (11)
2 - Paprika (13)
3 - Apache Cat (1)
4 - Morgan Dollar (7)

The three year olds have a good record in this race and Wanted (11) looks a beauty. Great run in Manikato behind Slipper winner and the inside barrier should help his run on basis. Also love the look of the 13 and may put an each way bet on her if the odds on course are decent.


Rest will be up later.
Click to expand...

1. 3rd paid 3.60 place
2. Bled from the nostrils
3. Winner winner chicken dinner
4. Na
 
Surkin said:
Race 5 - Yalumba Stakes 3yo and up WFA 2000m Group 1
1 - Whobegotyou (6)
2 - Heart Of Dreams (7)
3 - Baughurst (5)
4 - Master O'Reilly (1)

Should really be fought out by the two favourites. Not much value on either and they look streets better than the field so load up on the quinella. Baughurt (5) races well at Caulfield and Master O'Reilly (1) is in good nick so if you are having a go at a trifecta include these two.

Race 6 - David Jones Toorak Handicap 1600m Group 1
1 - Rock Kingdom (5)
2 - Gold Salute (6)
3 - Rafaello (13)
4 - Racing To Win (1)

The magic winning formula here. Gai + 1600m = Money. Rock Kingdom was very impressive in winning the Epsom. Drawn wide but should be able to get across. Pretty open race however so if you like any of the others you should get some good odds. Gold Salute (6) rarely runs a bad race and should be close again.

Race 7 - Caulfield Guineas 3yo 1600m Group 1
1 - Manhattan Rain (2)
2 - Denman (1)
3 - So You Think (7)
4 - Trusting (6)

If Denman (1) races anywhere near his best he will win. Going to take him on however on the basis he looked a bit tired in his last start and the step up to 1600m. Manhattan Rain (2) did enough in his first Melbourne run and willing to bank on the Gai/1600m combo to come through with the goods again. So You Think (7) and Trusting (6) will be coming home strongly and look for them to do big things later in the carnival. Maybe even Cox Plate horses if they do enough here.

Race 8 - Sportingbet Hubert Power Stakes 2400m Group 2
1 - Kibbutz (2)
2 - Cape Cover (5)
3 - Shocking (13)
4 - Alcopop (7)

Kibbutz (2) is a former Derby winner and looks to be running in to some sort of form and back to a suitable distance. The odds on offer are ridiculous so snap them up with an each way bet. 5, 13 and 7 are all racing well and it wouldn't surprise to see any win.

Race 9 - Northwood Plume Stakes 4yo and up Mares 1200m
1 - Velocitea (3)
2 - Tootsie (9)
3 - Champagne Harmony (2)
4 - Russeting (1)

Tough mares race to finish the day. Backed Velocitea (3) at 8's last start and she deliver. Looks to be improving. Plenty of other chances however so go wide in the quaddy.
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5. EGGZACTER
6. Place. Paid good coin
7. Place again
8. ELLE OH ELLE]
9. Place. Anyomne in young members PM me. I didn't collect. $80 ticker,
 
Backed 2 winners and picked up a tri in an early race. Good favourites day early, few roughies later on. Dont think i saw a horse the whole day at races, ripper day though.

How did the night finish up surkin?
 
What is the go with the carparks? Are you allowed to take in as much grog as you like? How many people you allowed to have in a park?
 
You get 25 ppl per marquee, we had 2 so about 50 ppl. Can bring 1 car each spot and as much grog as ya want. Think it costs about 70 guineas day per person if ya get the full 25 and about 120 odd cup day. We charged 100 each to cover booze and food. We had 22 slabs and about 50 bottles of wine/champagne. Had a few slabs left to finish off that night.
 

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That sounds awesome. Certainly would end up cheaper than buying crownies all day. Always going to be people you know in other tents too, so lots of grog and people you know guarantees a good day.

Are you a MRC member? I was having a look just before and it is only $285 for people under 25 to join so I think I might do that.
 
Hell yeah very cheap day, how did you get in there?

Nah not a member, i dont think anyone was in our group. I think to get one on the edge of the track you have to be a member.

Always plenty of grog going around i there. Caulfield is great cos its so much closer to home and a lot cheaper than flemington.
 
saint leo said:
Hell yeah very cheap day, how did you get in there?
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In to the races on the young members?
Races = 14 minute train ride
Members = Guest Pass

Nah not a member, i dont think anyone was in our group. I think to get one on the edge of the track you have to be a member.
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Yeah I think you might be right come to think of it. The people I knew were all on inside and were members, thats why assumed you or someone in your group must have been a member.
 
Lol at your earlier post about not seeing a horse there all day. I reckon they could run the races at Flemington and half the people there wouldn't even realise. Think there were 25,000 people there and I reckon half of them had never heard of Whobegotyou.
 
I went on the training track part to watch one race at the end. Spray tans would be a good business in melbourne this time of year.

I think everyone at the track bet on it though, even money on the bookies was easy cash. I think 99% of ppl were out of the quaddie the first leg.

Record crowd for guineas day they said.
 

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