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Surkin said:
Tonight I have my money on Tyler Farrar @ 9.

This stage is going to be one that suits the pure sprinters. Not much value in Cavendish @ 2 so will be putting my money on the next best sprinter in Farrar.

Looking at the full list I can't see too much other value. Perhaps Daniel Oss @ 101 but as the odds suggest he's unlikely.
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Wat was hushovd paying? Mcewen might be a chance as well. 20 kms to go should be a cracking finish.
 
I used last night's stage as a chance to catch up on a bit of extra sleep. Looking at the results Farrar must not have even contested the sprint with his cracked wrist. His lead out guys Dean and Hunter both finished top 5 though so I reckon this one would have been a monty for Farrar if he was fit.

Cavendish finished 12th, not sure what happened there. Definitely already out of green jersey contention.

Another win for Pettachi proving he is one of the best sprinters of his generation.

Also good to see Daniel Oss finish 8th. Mentioned he was at 101-1 before the race. Was probably never going to win but is a good one to watch out for in the future.
 
Cavendish was given a beautiful lead in, but when he pulled out he found nothing. McEwen looked the winner 200 out from home. Dean absolutely rocketed home, perhaps left his run a touch late, otherwise could nearly have knocked off the Italian.
 

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kenny moore said:
Who should we load up on for the brownlow surkin who do you like?
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I like Leigh Montagna at $26. I know he didn't poll that well last year but it usually takes a couple of good years from the players before the umpires begin to recognise them with Brownlow votes. Montagna has had a couple of good seasons in a row now.

His last 5 or 6 weeks have been sensational and St Kilda are winning plenty of games which always helps.
 
There was an article in the paper today about Ben Stratton's rising star odds.

Just had a look and he is still at $41.

My top 5 at the moment would be
1. Hannebury
2. Rockliff
3. Stratton
4. Trengove
5. Scully

A bit more positive press like he has been receiving in the few weeks and Stratton may well rocket up the list.
 
Surkin said:
There was an article in the paper today about Ben Stratton's rising star odds.

Just had a look and he is still at $41.

My top 5 at the moment would be
1. Hannebury
2. Rockliff
3. Stratton
4. Trengove
5. Scully

A bit more positive press like he has been receiving in the few weeks and Stratton may well rocket up the list.
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I still dont think Stratton is above trengove or scully, he plays half back. They play on ball which is much harder for a young guy.

Hannebury should win it, and i think Bastinac is next with the 2 melbourne blokes.
 
Surkin said:
I like Leigh Montagna at $26. I know he didn't poll that well last year but it usually takes a couple of good years from the players before the umpires begin to recognise them with Brownlow votes. Montagna has had a couple of good seasons in a row now.

His last 5 or 6 weeks have been sensational and St Kilda are winning plenty of games which always helps.
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Do you work at the herald sun Surkin?
Had a look at today's paper and they have say Montagna will win and at good odds.When you gave me the early mail on Montagna i droped into the lucky shop and got $31.If he get's up ill send you a xmas card with a $20 inside just like granny used to do.
 
$31. You would have to be happy with that.

St Kilda have a pretty good run home too which should help. Would also help if Goddard started to slow down a bit.
 
Here is my tip for tonight's stage of the tour.

Lance Armstrong @ $26

Why?
The stage includes the Col de Portet d'Aspet. This is where Lance's team mate Fabio Casartelli passed away in 1995. Lance went on to win the stage two days later (his first stage win) dedicating the win to his Castertelli.

Now this year, since Lance cracked he has been doing whatever he can to drop time. He is doing this so he can go in a breakaway and have one last crack at winning a 23rd stage without having the favourites chase him down.

I reckon this will be the night for last to get in that beakaway. Not only does the course profile suit Lance, he has the added motivation of Castertelli.
 

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Surkin said:
Here is my tip for tonight's stage of the tour.

Lance Armstrong @ $26

Why?
The stage includes the Col de Portet d'Aspet. This is where Lance's team mate Fabio Casartelli passed away in 1995. Lance went on to win the stage two days later (his first stage win) dedicating the win to his Castertelli.

Now this year, since Lance cracked he has been doing whatever he can to drop time. He is doing this so he can go in a breakaway and have one last crack at winning a 23rd stage without having the favourites chase him down.

I reckon this will be the night for last to get in that beakaway. Not only does the course profile suit Lance, he has the added motivation of Castertelli.
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Wouldnt be suprised at all if Lance won tonight. Has been saving his energy up for one last stage win and im with surkin and reckon it could be tonight
 
Spring Racing starts this Saturday at Caulfield with the J.J. Liston Stakes. Who's excited?

Check back here on a regular basis and I will give you an armchair ride on how to win big this spring.
 
Ha ha you idiot. I'm certainly excited. Had one bet last Saturday, $100 on Moudre at $3.30 fixed odds. Was the biggest moral of all time, was paying $4.50 in the morning before i left for footy, by the time i got to the Goon pub it was into $3.30. Ended up paying $3.00 on the tote. One to follow during the early part of spring.
 
Yeah I guess you could look at it like that. I just think it'll have the fitness edge over the rest as they build up for the big races later on. It'll be down in the weights and it has a powerful finishing burst that will trump a lot of the more dour types it comes up against early in the spring. It's a good thing for 2 or 3 more wins this prep, how far it goes i'm not sure.
 
MMMMMOOOOUUUUUUDDDDDDDRRRRREEEEEE!

Ultra impressive again on the weekend as it works through the grades. Will be stepping up in grade again next start but i'll be on board. Looking a real chance in the Caulfield Cup now. Had it one out in the quad on the weekend and with the field in the last it picked me up over a grand for an outlay of $50.

How good is the Cox Plate shaping up again this year. Some great trials over the weekend, So You Think is a freak, More Joyous has come back really well, Shoot Out's run was as good as any and Whobegotyou looks back in town. Then you've got Metal Bender, Predatory Pricer, Trusting, Heart of Dreams etc. all very capable horses on their day. Toorak Toff might be the 3YO this year that gets a run and gives it a shake. Had a lazy $50 on it in the Golden Rose on Saturday and was a huge effort to make up the ground that it did. Star of the future that's for sure.
 
Tumbleweed said:
MMMMMOOOOUUUUUUDDDDDDDRRRRREEEEEE!

Ultra impressive again on the weekend as it works through the grades. Will be stepping up in grade again next start but i'll be on board. Looking a real chance in the Caulfield Cup now. Had it one out in the quad on the weekend and with the field in the last it picked me up over a grand for an outlay of $50.
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Was very impressive. Still needs to win a sakes race to qualify for the Caulfield Cup, but the way he is running at the moment that shouldn't be much of a problem. I had him one out in the quaddy too. Didn't get it though.

How good is the Cox Plate shaping up again this year. Some great trials over the weekend, So You Think is a freak, More Joyous has come back really well, Shoot Out's run was as good as any and Whobegotyou looks back in town. Then you've got Metal Bender, Predatory Pricer, Trusting, Heart of Dreams etc. all very capable horses on their day. Toorak Toff might be the 3YO this year that gets a run and gives it a shake. Had a lazy $50 on it in the Golden Rose on Saturday and was a huge effort to make up the ground that it did. Star of the future that's for sure.
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Cox Plate should be an absolute ripper. You would think the top three from Saturday would be the ones to beat though. I like WBGY. Couldn't get past SYT but from all reports he wasn't expected to do that much on Saturday.
 
Surkin said:
Cox Plate should be an absolute ripper. You would think the top three from Saturday would be the ones to beat though. I like WBGY. Couldn't get past SYT but from all reports he wasn't expected to do that much on Saturday.
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Hear someone on the radio say whobe wont run past 1600m this spring. Will try to dominate the sprints and the mile races.
 
Anyone on here bet on Betfair????
Been reading up on it, seems interesting about being able to "Lay" horses etc.
Not completely sold yet though....... thoughts?
 
Not on there but I reckon it would be very good for laying any kind of long-term futures bet. E.g. you back Collingwood to win the premiership at the start of the year at $10. Now into $3. Instead of laying them by backing all other sides as you would on the TAB can now just back them not to win the premiership on Betfair. Much easier. I reckon any kind of serious punter would have to be on there.

What is everyone thoughts on exotic markets? Used to be that you could just back for a win, place, trifecta, quaddy. Now there are that many type of bets out there it is ridiculous. When you hear they are taking bets on whether a ball will be a no-ball, seems a little ridiculous to me. Very open to being fixed.

Australia is not as bad as other countries with the exotic options but even some of their markets can be got at as seen by the rugby player who gave away the penalty in the opening minute.

I know some of these markets are good fun but seriously they need to be scaled back a little to protect the integrity of all sports.
 

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