Team for 2022

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B: Duryea, Keath, Crozier
HB: Dale, Shache, Daniel
C: Hunter, Dunkley, Macrae
HF: Treloar, English, Johannisen
FF: Weightman, Naughton, Hannan
R: Martin, Bontempelli, Smith
INT: Richards, Liberatore, Williams, Vandermeer.
 
Forward line dysfunctional hey, that just new since we played off in the GF a few months ago or…

Regardless of what happened last year, its hard to look at our forward line in the last two practice games and say it wasn't dysfunctional. How much of that is the midfield's failure to connect or the forwards fault for not getting into the right spots, making good leads etc., I don't know. I thought every other aspect of our game looked great. 130 inside 50s over two games indicates that we are getting it in there enough. We need to convert more of those entries into marks and shots on goal or we won't be competitive.
 

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Regardless of what happened last year, its hard to look at our forward line in the last two practice games and say it wasn't dysfunctional. How much of that is the midfield's failure to connect or the forwards fault for not getting into the right spots, making good leads etc., I don't know. I thought every other aspect of our game looked great. 130 inside 50s over two games indicates that we are getting it in there enough. We need to convert more of those entries into marks and shots on goal or we won't be competitive.
Yeah forward entries have been trash, we were one of the highest scoring teams last year and not much has changed- I’m going to use the 25 games of evidence last year over the 2 praccy matches tbh, it’s preseason skills are sloppy, players are fatigued, don’t really care and it’s easier to pop it up in the spot then find an option etc - I just don’t know why year after year we take anything out of these games on here, last year we lost to hawks and then won first 7 games of the season
 
don’t really care

I don't buy it at all that they don't really care. And if that was true then it would be cause for even greater concern. I can understand not caring about the result, but the players should be absolutely committed to finding as close to their best form as possible.

I thought our ball movement was electrifying at times. I thought our team defence was great. Our intent to hunt and chase was certainly there. But the skill execution going inside 50 was seriously poor. That doesn't seem to me like a team that doesn't care; it seems like a team that care a lot but have a dysfunctional forward line.
 
I think we lack natural forwards who don’t know when or where to lead. Bruce out is huge as he has that natural instinct. Naughton is an amazing player but is not a natural forward. Hannan, JJ, VDM, Martin, Cordy do not have a forwards instinct. Weightman does and Bont is natural at everything.

This is why I say it is disfunctional at present. our Midfield is the best and we usually have more inside 50’s but a lot of our goals are hard work compared to other teams. Bevo and the coach’s admits there is a connection issue going forward and it is a problem so the coaches are aware.
 
Williams - Keath - Duryea
Dale - Obrien/Gardner - Richards
Hunter - Liber - Smith
Smith - Schache - Treloar
Weightman - Naughton - JJ
English - Macrae - Bontempelli

Daniel - Dunkley - Vandemeer - Hannan

I think the midfield changes week to week. But I do think we’ll see a heap more of Treloar at centre bounces.
 
I reckon our key position structure has regressed since last year and this plus the growth in the teams we've seen in the preseason games does not bode well for our start to this year. I think if we can replicate the rebound 50s, inside 50s and clearence numbers we show regularly we should probably beat most teams but it'll be a real slog compared to last year when we were blitzing teams off the park with a three tall lineup.

Wouldn't be surprised to see our 2021 three-headed monster of Naughton, Bruce and English swap to Naughton, Hannan and Cordy for the first few games of this season which is an enormous downgrade. Cordy, Hannan and Weightman need to do a tonne of work off the ball to free up Naughton because he's the only one who will consistently win the ball in air inside 50.

Ironic that this is the year Bevo feels English is ready to play ruck full time when we now need him most in the forward line.
 
Yeah you're right. I misheard it.

As long as libba isn't used as a small forward again ffs.
It’s an interesting interview and you can read plenty into it.
Mentioned Sweet when talking about getting the right ruck balance/time between all 3.
Mentioned the injuries to Keath and Gardner when talking about options forward which made me wonder if they are/were planning for Schache or Cordy forward early on.
Acknowledged Hannan wasn’t great last week but he clearly sees him as important to our fwd line as someone who can play a bit taller.
 

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I reckon our key position structure has regressed since last year and this plus the growth in the teams we've seen in the preseason games does not bode well for our start to this year. I think if we can replicate the rebound 50s, inside 50s and clearence numbers we show regularly we should probably beat most teams but it'll be a real slog compared to last year when we were blitzing teams off the park with a three tall lineup.

Wouldn't be surprised to see our 2021 three-headed monster of Naughton, Bruce and English swap to Naughton, Hannan and Cordy for the first few games of this season which is an enormous downgrade. Cordy, Hannan and Weightman need to do a tonne of work off the ball to free up Naughton because he's the only one who will consistently win the ball in air inside 50.

Ironic that this is the year Bevo feels English is ready to play ruck full time when we now need him most in the forward line.

It sucks we can’t clone him, but Bont might need to have reduced mid minutes because he’ll attract more defensive attention up forward than Hannan & Cordy combined
 
It’s an interesting interview and you can read plenty into it.
Mentioned Sweet when talking about getting the right ruck balance/time between all 3.
Mentioned the injuries to Keath and Gardner when talking about options forward which made me wonder if they are/were planning for Schache or Cordy forward early on.
Acknowledged Hannan wasn’t great last week but he clearly sees him as important to our fwd line as someone who can play a bit taller.
We can never rely on what Bevo says publicly because he'll likely do the opposite
 
Not sure if you have the data to hand Oliver Gigacz - but how does our rushed/bombed figures compare to other sides ??

Percentage of kicks inside 50 that were bombs in the 2022 AAMI Series
60% - North Melbourne
50% - Adelaide
48% - West Coast
46% - GWS
43% - Essendon
42% - Carlton
42% - Geelong
41% - WESTERN BULLDOGS
39% - Gold Coast
36% - Sydney
36% - Hawthorn
34% - St. Kilda
34% - Port Adelaide
29% - Collingwood
28% - Brisbane
26% - Fremantle
24% - Melbourne
22% - Richmond

Percentage of kicks inside 50 that were bombs in the 2021 AFL Premiership Season...
25% - GWS
22% - Adelaide
22% - West Coast
21% - Hawthorn
20% - Gold Coast
20% - St. Kilda
20% - Brisbane
18% - Carlton
18% - Melbourne
17% - Essendon
17% - Port Adelaide
16% - WESTERN BULLDOGS
16% - Geelong
16% - Collingwood
16% - Sydney
15% - Richmond
15% - North Melbourne
12% - Fremantle
 
Percentage of kicks inside 50 that were bombs in the 2022 AAMI Series
60% - North Melbourne
50% - Adelaide
48% - West Coast
46% - GWS
43% - Essendon
42% - Carlton
42% - Geelong
41% - WESTERN BULLDOGS
39% - Gold Coast
36% - Sydney
36% - Hawthorn
34% - St. Kilda
34% - Port Adelaide
29% - Collingwood
28% - Brisbane
26% - Fremantle
24% - Melbourne
22% - Richmond

Percentage of kicks inside 50 that were bombs in the 2021 AFL Premiership Season...
25% - GWS
22% - Adelaide
22% - West Coast
21% - Hawthorn
20% - Gold Coast
20% - St. Kilda
20% - Brisbane
18% - Carlton
18% - Melbourne
17% - Essendon
17% - Port Adelaide
16% - WESTERN BULLDOGS
16% - Geelong
16% - Collingwood
16% - Sydney
15% - Richmond
15% - North Melbourne
12% - Fremantle

Thanks mate - not as worrying as I'd first thought looking at the numbers - we were roughly mid-table. A few percentage points of improvement will put us in the right area.
 
Also that every side bombs it in more in the preseason. Probably just a fitness thing.

It's a combination of things I suspect - but you are right - the data does support the increased frequency of shit kicks in the pre-season..

It just looked alarming on a first glance....
 
This is a worrying admission from Bevo’s interview:

“I’m feeling like we’re in a pretty good position, that we’re ok. We’re not as healthy as we have been in other years from an injury point of view.”

Leads me to believe that our injury list is more than what is currently published.

Even before this, I’m thinking we will start the year much like Brisbane did last year. Struggling to find our chemistry and losing a bunch of our early contests in close ones before getting things going after 5 or 6 rounds. We could easily be 0-4 or 1-3 after our first four games.

Will be interesting to see if a nuclear melt down occurs around here if that eventuates.

As long as we time our run we’ll be right. Last year we probably peaked too early and then suffered injuries heading through the pointy end. Hopefully this year we begin to get players back as the season progresses and we can stay relatively healthy after that.
 
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Percentage of kicks inside 50 that were bombs in the 2022 AAMI Series
60% - North Melbourne
50% - Adelaide
48% - West Coast
46% - GWS
43% - Essendon
42% - Carlton
42% - Geelong
41% - WESTERN BULLDOGS
39% - Gold Coast
36% - Sydney
36% - Hawthorn
34% - St. Kilda
34% - Port Adelaide
29% - Collingwood
28% - Brisbane
26% - Fremantle
24% - Melbourne
22% - Richmond

Percentage of kicks inside 50 that were bombs in the 2021 AFL Premiership Season...
25% - GWS
22% - Adelaide
22% - West Coast
21% - Hawthorn
20% - Gold Coast
20% - St. Kilda
20% - Brisbane
18% - Carlton
18% - Melbourne
17% - Essendon
17% - Port Adelaide
16% - WESTERN BULLDOGS
16% - Geelong
16% - Collingwood
16% - Sydney
15% - Richmond
15% - North Melbourne
12% - Fremantle
Thank you for this, completely proves my earlier points - huge discrepancy across the board in numbers from last year to preseason.

It’s preseason!!!!! Let’s stop worrying about it
 
Percentage of kicks inside 50 that were bombs in the 2022 AAMI Series
60% - North Melbourne
50% - Adelaide
48% - West Coast
46% - GWS
43% - Essendon
42% - Carlton
42% - Geelong
41% - WESTERN BULLDOGS
39% - Gold Coast
36% - Sydney
36% - Hawthorn
34% - St. Kilda
34% - Port Adelaide
29% - Collingwood
28% - Brisbane
26% - Fremantle
24% - Melbourne
22% - Richmond

Percentage of kicks inside 50 that were bombs in the 2021 AFL Premiership Season...
25% - GWS
22% - Adelaide
22% - West Coast
21% - Hawthorn
20% - Gold Coast
20% - St. Kilda
20% - Brisbane
18% - Carlton
18% - Melbourne
17% - Essendon
17% - Port Adelaide
16% - WESTERN BULLDOGS
16% - Geelong
16% - Collingwood
16% - Sydney
15% - Richmond
15% - North Melbourne
12% - Fremantle

That's quite amazing. The mean Bombs per Inside 50 in the main season last year was 18%, compared to the AAMI series this year in which the mean was 38%. That represents a 211% increase on Bombs per Inside 50.

It's reassuring to see that this is pretty much a league-wide phenomenon and it's not just specific to us.
 
Based on Bevos interview yesterday I think our short term plan is going to be Cordy forward, Bont and Dunks needing to spend some minutes there too to compete in the air. Josh Bruce also mentioned Cordy in his interview on SEN. He’s done it before and he can do it again I reckon. His physicality is almost perfect for what we need. Just needs to get back to the basics and where to lead etc.

My round one team estimation:

B: Richards Keath Williams
HB: Daniel Schache Dale
C: Smith Bontempelli Hunter
HF: Hannan Cordy Treloar
F: Weightman Naughton VDM
R: English Dunkley Macrae
Int: RSmith Libba Martin JJ

If he doesn’t go two rucks then swap Martin for Duryea but then I feel our structure is almost shot to pieces.

Emg: Duryea McComb Gardner
 
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