Teams you are ruling out of the finals

[sverik25]

View attachment 406183
HAHA Well Saints need about +125 with West Coast. I still think this is doable. IF Adelaide don't slack off, and destroy west coast, Saints could sneak in. Probably won't. They would also need Malb and Essendon to lose, and I doubt it.

If West Coast lose, and we win, then our percentage becomes irrelevant compared to them because we would be on 48 points and the Eagles on 44.

Again, we don't need Melbourne to lose, just Essendon and West Coast.

Pretty unlikely (probably about a 2% chance) that everything falls into place for us.

 

[JHF1870]

sverik25 Yes, thats true. That scenario was for 7th then.

 

[PerthBoy86]

I'd say we're a 30-40% chance of upsetting the Crows, and Essendon are about 80% chance to beat Freo. Not factoring the slim chance of the Dogs and Saints having unrealistically huge victories, let's say 0.3 x 0.2 = 0.06. Add the fact we'll need to overtake the Bombers %, let's say a 5% for the Eagles to make finals.

 

[Ari]

Kinda funny how adamant everyone is early in this thread that we can't play finals.

To be fair, we've done almost everything we can to not play finals but it looks like we will somehow sneak in. Yes, we've had a very soft draw however most of the games we've lost have been to shit-truck teams and we've been competitive against the good ones. So long as we don't play a final on a Sunday afternoon, we'd be a sneaky chance.

 

[PerthBoy86]

To be fair, we've done almost everything we can to not play finals but it looks like we will somehow sneak in. Yes, we've had a very soft draw however most of the games we've lost have been to shit-truck teams and we've been competitive against the good ones. So long as we don't play a final on a Sunday afternoon, we'd be a sneaky chance.

Kinda feel of the Saints, Eagles and Bombers, the Bombers have the most potential to cause some damage in September. Key word being potential. I know it's a long time ago, but they did maul Geelong and were on track to beat an in-form Sydney side, so I wouldn't dismiss them. So in that sense at least they'd be the best value in finals, not that I like them at all, but it would make things interesting, rather than the Eagles or Saints likely going out in straight sets.

 

[Always Ballin]

PerthBoy

 

[Ari]

Kinda feel of the Saints, Eagles and Bombers, the Bombers have the most potential to cause some damage in September. Key word being potential. I know it's a long time ago, but they did maul Geelong and were on track to beat an in-form Sydney side, so I wouldn't dismiss them. So in that sense at least they'd be the best value in finals, not that I like them at all, but it would make things interesting, rather than the Eagles or Saints likely going out in straight sets.

Yeah I know exactly what you mean. Of those fringe finals teams, Essendon probably have the best ability to turn it on and maul a game. BUT they are almost probably the most inconsistent of all those fringe teams. Who knows whether Essendon or Essington might show up on the same.

Ultimately though, finals are a pressure game. Everything is tighter. Finals are won by tackle count and inside pressure. Essendon are crap in this scenario though. They're best when teams don't apply enough pressure which opens up guys like Zaharakis to play a fast outside game.

All the talk of the bottom part of the 8 and the handful of teams jostling for it will be a memory come week 3 of the finals when I expect the bigger teams to start taking over.

 

[Badesumofu]

I'd say we're a 30-40% chance of upsetting the Crows, and Essendon are about 80% chance to beat Freo. Not factoring the slim chance of the Dogs and Saints having unrealistically huge victories, let's say 0.3 x 0.2 = 0.06. Add the fact we'll need to overtake the Bombers %, let's say a 5% for the Eagles to make finals.

Probably a reasonably fair assessment. Eagles are the most likely of the teams outside the 8 to make it, but I'd say Essendon are better than an 80% chance to beat Freo. There is a significant chance that Adelaide will have top spot locked up by the time you play them which could make a substantial difference.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Yeah I know exactly what you mean. Of those fringe finals teams, Essendon probably have the best ability to turn it on and maul a game. BUT they are almost probably the most inconsistent of all those fringe teams. Who knows whether Essendon or Essington might show up on the same.

Ultimately though, finals are a pressure game. Everything is tighter. Finals are won by tackle count and inside pressure. Essendon are crap in this scenario though. They're best when teams don't apply enough pressure which opens up guys like Zaharakis to play a fast outside game.

All the talk of the bottom part of the 8 and the handful of teams jostling for it will be a memory come week 3 of the finals when I expect the bigger teams to start taking over.

Yes, they are also the most inconsistent. I kinda feel part of the reason they're not as good as earlier in the year might have to do with increasing pressure, or teams/coaches catching onto their relatively simplistic gameplan.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Probably a reasonably fair assessment. Eagles are the most likely of the teams outside the 8 to make it, but I'd say Essendon are better than an 80% chance to beat Freo. There is a significant chance that Adelaide will have top spot locked up by the time you play them which could make a substantial difference.

You never really know with Essendon and Freo though. Freo might want to make amends for last week (a lot on the line for a lot of players, and Ross Lyon and the coaching staff), the pressure of maintaining a top 8 spot might get to Essendon, etc. But yes, I expect them to win, and probably win by a lot, but you never know.

We seem to play alright at the AO, and I'm also thinking of last year's upset there. Odds aren't as long as some might think, and I think they are probably an accurate reflection.

 

[Run n Spread]

You never really know with Essendon and Freo though. Freo might want to make amends for last week (a lot on the line for a lot of players, and Ross Lyon and the coaching staff), the pressure of maintaining a top 8 spot might get to Essendon, etc. But yes, I expect them to win, and probably win by a lot, but you never know.

We seem to play alright at the AO, and I'm also thinking of last year's upset there. Odds aren't as long as some might think, and I think they are probably an accurate reflection.

Eagles best bet is Melbourne. A 20 point loss to Collingwood (unlikely at this stage but not impossible) and a 20 point win against a chilled Adelaide (not likely but still possible) would see both on 12 wins with Eagles hauling in their %.

90% likely to stay as is with a 9% chance of the Dees dropping out for Eagles and a 1% chance of Freo beating Essendon.

 

[JHF1870]

Id say WC beating Adelaide is most likely given the situation.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Eagles best bet is Melbourne. A 20 point loss to Collingwood (unlikely at this stage but not impossible) and a 20 point win against a chilled Adelaide (not likely but still possible) would see both on 12 wins with Eagles hauling in their %.

90% likely to stay as is with a 9% chance of the Dees dropping out for Eagles and a 1% chance of Freo beating Essendon.

Id say it is a .00000000000000000001% chance of Freo beating the Dons

 

[Halftimehero]

Id say WC beating Adelaide is most likely given the situation.

Not sure about that, Adelaide wont want to be going into the finals off the back of two losses, they won't be taking it easy.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

It'll be a struggle for North from here.

 

[JackOutback]

Not sure about that, Adelaide wont want to be going into the finals off the back of two losses, they won't be taking it easy.

Yep, wish they had beaten Sydney, wrapped up top spot, and decided to take it easy this weekend, but not to be.

 

[JHF1870]

Not sure about that, Adelaide wont want to be going into the finals off the back of two losses, they won't be taking it easy.

I just realized. I thought they were a game clear