The 2010 Brownlow Medal -

[knowledgeable fan]

My thoughts on team most votes

Ablett - lock
Goodes - lock at least 10 votes in last 6/7 rounds. jack wont poll that many
harvey - lock (will poll several 3's) swallow to get lots of 1's and 2's
swan - surely
hodge - lock
brown - black only danger

these will pay 5-1

My smokie is simon goodwin for adelaide

 

[The_Doctor]

My thoughts on team most votes

Ablett - lock
Goodes - lock at least 10 votes in last 6/7 rounds. jack wont poll that many
harvey - lock (will poll several 3's) swallow to get lots of 1's and 2's
swan - surely
hodge - lock
brown - black only danger

these will pay 5-1

My smokie is simon goodwin for adelaide

Totally agree with all of that

 

[dUkezz]

Rischitelli most Brisbane votes $12.... Gift? Only problem I see is brown getting a few 3s early then it might b hard for rishi to claw votes back coz of the lack of wins

 

[DT_35]

Rischitelli no chance of getting it...between Brown/Black, 75% Browny will take it tho

 

[jd2006]

Option 1 - S.Thompson, Brown, Watson, Sandilands, Ablett, Harvey, J.Riewoldt @$14.28
Option 2 - S.Thompson, Brown, Hodge, Pavlich, Ablett @$43.15
Option 3 - M.Murphy & Pavlich @ $165
Option 4 - S.Thompson, Brown, Pendlebury, Fletcher, Swallow, Deledio, Goddard, LeCras @$2012.75
Option 5 - all teams bar WB
S.Thompson, Brown, Judd, Swan, Watson, Sandilands, Ablett, Hodgem Harvey, Green, J.Riewoldt, K.Cornes, Goddard, Goodes, Priddis @$503.56

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Rischitelli most Brisbane votes $12.... Gift? Only problem I see is brown getting a few 3s early then it might b hard for rishi to claw votes back coz of the lack of wins

Brown will also get 3's later in the year against West Coast and Essendon, has it in the bag if you ask me

 

[Hawks92]

We'll see. You could be right. But I went Thompson/McLean/LeCras/Tredrea/Hayes last year and none of them were favourites, yet ended up about $1000 up from a similar structure

I like a lot of your bets and your multi's also interest me Please let us know how you went after the Brownlow. Good luck mate

 

[Rippo]

Option 1 - S.Thompson, Brown, Watson, Sandilands, Ablett, Harvey, J.Riewoldt @$14.28
Option 2 - S.Thompson, Brown, Hodge, Pavlich, Ablett @$43.15
Option 3 - M.Murphy & Pavlich @ $165
Option 4 - S.Thompson, Brown, Pendlebury, Fletcher, Swallow, Deledio, Goddard, LeCras @$2012.75
Option 5 - all teams bar WB
S.Thompson, Brown, Judd, Swan, Watson, Sandilands, Ablett, Hodgem Harvey, Green, J.Riewoldt, K.Cornes, Goddard, Goodes, Priddis @$503.56

hedge Option 1 with Barlow and scrap the rest!

Option 5 isn't an option as you can only go 10 legs in a multi.

Why not do option 1 with a few other?

S.Thompson, Brown, Watson, Sandilands, Ablett, Harvey, J.Riewoldt, Boak, Goddard, Goodes.

then same bet and Hedge Sandi with Barlow
then same bet and hedge Goddard with Hayes.

i you did that i could see one coming in but as it stands i see none coming in (maybe option 1) but why not add the gimmes to it to get over the 14-1.

Just the way i see it!

 

[The_Doctor]

Rischitelli most Brisbane votes $12.... Gift? Only problem I see is brown getting a few 3s early then it might b hard for rishi to claw votes back coz of the lack of wins

gift? um no. Not even good value because he is no chance of winning. Brown will poll very well early when they were winning and late in the year also. I only give black an outside chance of beating him because of polling history. I still think brown is a lock though.

 

[Trouta]

More bets up.

http://www.betedge.com.au/blog/76-betedge-brownlow-bets-edition

Like the Selwood Top 5, but best I can find is $4.50 ATM.

I love the optimism of the Pav bet at 60 to 1 but i guess if comes off thats the only bet u need to hit all night...

 

[IDIG]

These are my initial thoughts, would love some feedback. Never really bet on brownlow night before

I'm thinking Ablett, Goodes, Boomer, Swan and Hodge are safe so i'll include those in all my multis.

I've then got Watson, Brown, Priddis, Thompson as my next group of safe bets.

Then i've got Sandi, Boyd, Goddard, JRoo who i dont feel as confident about but seem like good value.

I'll probably put on bets with most of the top 2 groups then with a couple from the last in each. That seems to be the most logical way to approach it?

 

[Hawks92]

These are my initial thoughts, would love some feedback. Never really bet on brownlow night before

I'm thinking Ablett, Goodes, Boomer, Swan and Hodge are safe so i'll include those in all my multis.

I've then got Watson, Brown, Priddis, Thompson as my next group of safe bets.

Then i've got Sandi, Boyd, Goddard, JRoo who i dont feel as confident about but seem like good value.

I'll probably put on bets with most of the top 2 groups then with a couple from the last in each. That seems to be the most logical way to approach it?

i did some similar multi's to you, i reckon that first group are all locks. i added watson and judd in there for odds of about 4.50 at TAB

 

[twarby]

These are my initial thoughts, would love some feedback. Never really bet on brownlow night before

I'm thinking Ablett, Goodes, Boomer, Swan and Hodge are safe so i'll include those in all my multis.

I've then got Watson, Brown, Priddis, Thompson as my next group of safe bets.

Then i've got Sandi, Boyd, Goddard, JRoo who i dont feel as confident about but seem like good value.

I'll probably put on bets with most of the top 2 groups then with a couple from the last in each. That seems to be the most logical way to approach it?

your about 3 weeks late..
no value left.
Your first 5 arnt safe.
Watson, Brown, Thompson, Judd are the safest locks, followed by Ablett, Hodge.
The next tier would be Jroo, Hayes

Fremantle, Dogs, Pies, Swans, Roos can go one of 2 ways.

but considering you have waited this long you have to take more risks..
and out of all the players you have listed Priddis and Goddard are your biggest risks

 

[Delicious Cyril]

These are my initial thoughts, would love some feedback. Never really bet on brownlow night before

I'm thinking Ablett, Goodes, Boomer, Swan and Hodge are safe so i'll include those in all my multis.

I've then got Watson, Brown, Priddis, Thompson as my next group of safe bets.

Then i've got Sandi, Boyd, Goddard, JRoo who i dont feel as confident about but seem like good value.

I'll probably put on bets with most of the top 2 groups then with a couple from the last in each. That seems to be the most logical way to approach it?

I wouldn't call Boomer safe, have you seen Swallows numbers? He plays right under the umpires nose and I liken him to a Black or Selwood who are hard and the umpires love.

 

[IDIG]

Haha yeah probably a little late but didnt even think about the brownlow until this morning. Anyway this what i ended up putting on -

$50 @ 15.96
Ablett/Swan/Hodge/Boomer/Goodes/Watson/Brown/Sandi/Priddis/Thompson

$25 @ 25.86
Ablett/Swan/Hodge/Boomer/Goodes/Watson/Brown/Goddard/JRoo

$20 @ 19.05
Ablett/Swan/Hodge/Boomer/Goodes/Watson/Brown/Sandi/Goddard

$5 @ 236.17
Goodes/Watson/Brown/Sandi/Goddard/JRoo/Priddis/Thompson/Boak/Cooney

Green = in all 4 multis
Blue = in 3 multis
Pink = in 2 multis
Black = in 1 multi

I think i should've written down my bets before i went to the tab because i didnt plan to have Goddard in so many multis lol

Anyway, good luck all.

 

[IDIG]

I wouldn't call Boomer safe, have you seen Swallows numbers? He plays right under the umpires nose and I liken him to a Black or Selwood who are hard and the umpires love.

Yeah fair call, i think if Swan mysteriously doesnt poll well again you could probably add Pendles to that group.

Tbh i hadn't done a heck of alot of research for my bets, i just followed the money more than anything else. It'll keep the night interesting anyway

 

[Lensen]

I really, really, really hope Swan polls as well as last year and Pendles picks up the slack

 

[Reyes_9]

Who do people thing will poll more votes Joel Selwood or Brent Harvey?

 

[twarby]

Haha yeah probably a little late but didnt even think about the brownlow until this morning. Anyway this what i ended up putting on -

$50 @ 15.96
Ablett/Swan/Hodge/Boomer/Goodes/Watson/Brown/Sandi/Priddis/Thompson

$25 @ 25.86
Ablett/Swan/Hodge/Boomer/Goodes/Watson/Brown/Goddard/JRoo

$20 @ 19.05
Ablett/Swan/Hodge/Boomer/Goodes/Watson/Brown/Sandi/Goddard

$5 @ 236.17
Goodes/Watson/Brown/Sandi/Goddard/JRoo/Priddis/Thompson/Boak/Cooney

Green = in all 4 multis
Blue = in 3 multis
Pink = in 2 multis
Black = in 1 multi

I think i should've written down my bets before i went to the tab because i didnt plan to have Goddard in so many multis lol

Anyway, good luck all.

your first one is the only one you have anychance of winning

 

[pacemaker]

Who do people thing will poll more votes Joel Selwood or Brent Harvey?

Harvey. Too many vote getters in the Cats.

 

[Delicious Cyril]

Yeah fair call, i think if Swan mysteriously doesnt poll well again you could probably add Pendles to that group.

Tbh i hadn't done a heck of alot of research for my bets, i just followed the money more than anything else. It'll keep the night interesting anyway

Don't need to do the research, plenty of sites have been quoated on this furom that has done the research for us

I guess we just have to judge between the sound and not so sound reasoning.

 

[Frozenwaste]

Hey guys, great thread. Just wondering if it would be highly risky to put some money on:
Judd to Place, into Ablett to Place, into Ablett Leader after round 11?
Cheers

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Hey guys, great thread. Just wondering if it would be highly risky to put some money on:
Judd to Place, into Ablett to Place, into Ablett Leader after round 11?
Cheers

Would be a good bet, imho, but I don't think anyone will allow you to multi that combo... let us know if I'm wrong, I'd like to have a go at it.

 

[Frozenwaste]

Would be a good bet, imho, but I don't think anyone will allow you to multi that combo... let us know if I'm wrong, I'd like to have a go at it.

Not certain, but I use The Tote, as i'm there is one extremely close to Uni. I assume you can, as it doesn't say "Singles Only" as ir does with team votes, groups etc.

 

[Jan Juc]

Hey guys, great thread. Just wondering if it would be highly risky to put some money on:
Judd to Place, into Ablett to Place, into Ablett Leader after round 11?
Cheers

Won't be allowed to multi that ANYWHERE.

It's called a related-contigency or related-multiple bet.

In layman's terms, if one part/leg of your bet has an impact on another leg (whether this be obvious or not), you can't do it - because the outcome of the latter event is impacted by the outcome of the earlier event.

In your example, if Ablett is leading at R11, there is a higher chance of him winning/placing at night's end, so no good.