The Bulldogs and Umpires: Time for a Royal Commission?

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bzparkes said:
Because when you're getting an unprecedented armchair ride, the last thing you should do is try to defend it.

No other team in the AFL has ever been gifted a glorious run with the umps like yours.

Sad really, because I used to like watching your team and was hoping they'd win in 2016, until halfway through the match when I began seething with anger at the fix from the AFL to complete the 'fairytale'.

AFL's glorified WWE these days and it looks like guys at the top have picked the Bulldogs as the team they want to give the belt to.
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nah, you're just suffering tall poppy syndrome mate.
 
Plugger35 said:
Macrae is one of the worst offenders when it comes to playing for free kicks, he tries to milk high or in the back frees almost every time he's tackled.
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You want to know what "playing for free kicks" actually looks like? Look no further than this diver (5:18):



It truly is a warm feeling knowing Riewoldt the softc*ck never got to win a flag :)
 
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Bulldog Joe said:
Can you perhaps then explain Jack Steele, who receives more frees than Macrae.
Steele 1.9 frees for per game in 2021
Macrae 1.7 frees for per game in 2021

On the reverse
Steele 1.4 frees conceded per game
Macrae 1.0 free conceded.

Gee that Bulldog player doesn't actually get more frees he just gives away less.

We have been trying to highlight the differential is about frees conceded not frees received but the brigade leading the charge are just so full of it, that facts aren't really relevant.
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Nothing to do with Jack Steele averaging double the tackles per game????
 
ButtersILove said:
You want to know what "playing for free kicks" actually looks like? Look no further than this diver (5:18):



It truly is a warm feeling knowing Riewoldt the softc*ck never got to win a flag :)
Click to expand...


Clear free kick one of the dumbest things you'll see by Lake.
 
staffonly said:
Clear free kick one of the dumbest things you'll see by Lake.
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Even if you want to cry that it was technically a free kick, Lake's shoulder barely grazed Riewoldt's, and Riewoldt still tumbled over like a baby. Clear dive, something he did all throughout his career. Performed another shocking dive against Lachie Hansen early in 2010 too.

The point is, if bitter St Kilda supporters like you are going to have a crack at any opposition player for "diving", then remember that the greatest player to ever play for your club was also one of the worst stagers the game has ever seen.
 
ButtersILove said:
Even if you want to cry that it was technically a free kick, Lake's shoulder barely grazed Riewoldt's, and Riewoldt still tumbled over like a baby. Clear dive, something he did all throughout his career. Performed another shocking dive against Lachie Hansen early in 2010 too.

The point is, if bitter St Kilda supporters like you are going to have a crack at any opposition player for "diving", then remember that the greatest player to ever play for your club was also one of the worst stagers the game has ever seen.
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I haven't posted anything at all about being bitter. What you've done is show a clear free kick and tried to insult one of the best CHF the AFL has seen in the process.
 
Mahama said:
Going to jump in and add my 2 cents because you've made some well-reasoned points that can actually be debated, and are actually considering what it is about our play style that gets us on top of the free kick differential. I've gone and put a little too much time into this (helps that I'm home with holes where my wisdom teeth used to be), but feel free to read the main points in bold or skip to the TLDR.


On your point about those players specifically though - I think you're a bit off mainly because those players don't technically stage for free kicks or throw their heads back. They don't need to.

Call it semantics, but they actually draw free kicks - Weightman by doing the arm lift / shoulder shrug, Hunter by doing the lean forward and make your neck as big as possible. Daniel does neither, but you missed McLean as another one. My impression has always been that they don't remonstrate because they know there's room in the rules for the umpire to say they contributed to the high contact with those moves, so why argue? And they'll keep doing it regardless because it makes them harder to tackle, legally or otherwise.


In saying that, if we're trying to figure out why the Bulldogs have lead the free kick differential in 4 of Bevo's 7 years coaching us, looking at our free kicks for isn't going to be much use. Our free kicks for aren't the outlier - our average ranking in that time is 7th, and this year we're 8th. The players you mentioned, despite drawing free kicks (and even if you're right and they all stage for free kicks), really don't win enough free kicks per game to move the needle:
  • Cody Weightman: 1.67 FF
  • Lachie Hunter: 1.35 FF
  • Toby McLean: 1 FF
  • Caleb Daniel: 0.78 FF
The most free for per game are players like Shuey (2.57), Cripps (2.30), Selwood (2.26). Even our biggest contested ball winners, Bont and Macrae, only get 1.71 frees for per game.

Instead, and as has been mentioned a few times now, our differential dominance comes from the outlier that is our free kicks against. Our average ranking in Bevo's years is 3rd in this category (compared to 9th in the few years before he arrived), so he's clearly instilled some things in our gameplan that means we consistently give away less free kicks. It doesn't take much to achieve this - an extra 3 free kicks against per game would put us right in the middle of the pack. So where are those 3 missing frees?

If you have a look at the free kicks against player rankings, three types of players are overrepresented in the top 100:
  • Ruckmen (12 of the top 20). With something like 90 ruck contests a game, this isn't unexpected.
  • Defenders. Presumably infringing in one on one contests against forwards.
  • Contested midfielders. Particularly those on teams with poor contested possession differential.
In each of those categories, Bulldog players give away far less free kicks than their peers. We're moving into theories now so happy to hear other opinions, but I think each can be logically explained.

Our main ruckman for the majority of the year has been Tim English, who gives away just 1.15 free kicks per game. As far as number one ruckmen go, English would be about the least competitive in the league when it comes to ruck contests. For example, it's been a clear tactic throughout the year for him to effectively concede boundary throw-ins and instead focus on making sure he stays behind and the ball stays boundary side. It's a recipe for giving away less free kicks. Given Stef Martin was giving away 1.86 frees per game when fit, that's 0.71 frees accounted for.

Our main key defenders this year have been Keath (0.68 FA) and Cordy (0.53 FA), while our general defenders have been Bailey Williams (1.17 FA), Wood (0.85 FA), Duryea (0.57 FA), Daniel (0.52 FA) and Dale (0.42 FA). As has been pointed out in the media many times during the season, our defenders are uniquely reliant on avoiding one-on-one contests, where defenders are most likely to give away free kicks. These 7 players collectively average 14.1 defensive one-on-ones per game, while as a timely comparison, Brisbane's top 7 average 21.4. Our heavily zone-based defence means our defenders are less likely to find themselves alone in tough situations against their opponents, which means less infringements, which is reflected in the numbers. Our 7 defenders combine for 4.74 frees against per game, compared to Brisbane's 5.9 (+1.16). That brings us to 1.87 frees accounted for.

Finally, our top contested midfielders are Libba (1.04 FA), Macrae (0.96 FA), and Bont (1.38 FA). My theory here is that teams with the best contested possession differential are less likely to give away free kicks because they're more often first to the ball as a group. Players like Cunnington and Cripps top the frees against rankings because they're contested bulls themselves, but they're playing in midfields that are overall second to the ball, so they infringe more. We're 4th in contested possession differential, behind Melbourne, Geelong and Brisbane (though we were +10 against them on Saturday). Taking the top 3 contested ball winners from these 4 contest-dominant teams, the collective frees against are:
  • 4.23 for Melbourne (Oliver the big outlier)
  • 3.35 for Geelong
  • 3.16 for Brisbane (Zorko the majority, dude's a psycho)
  • 3.38 for the Dogs.
Compared to the Kangaroos, who are in the middle of the rankings for frees against overall mind you, their top 3 mids give away 4.8 free kicks a game. That's 1.42 more than the Dogs, and takes us to 3.29 frees against accounted for. We're done!

On their own, none of these 3 factors make much of an impact on free kick differential. But given the difference between ranking 9th and ranking 1st is just 3 free kicks, we really shouldn't expect the contributing factors to be huge. Those extra 3.29 frees against would drop us to 10th for free kick differential.


TLDR: The Bulldogs have had a strong free kick differential since Bevo started coaching us. This is entirely due to our remarkably low number of free kicks against - we're middle of the pack when it comes to free kicks for. Our uncompetitive ruckman, zone-based defence and strong contested ball winning all contribute to giving away roughly 3 less free kicks per game, without which we'd be ranked 10th in free kick differential. Certainly seems more likely than it being 'discipline' or a conspiracy anyway.
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Great post - thanks for the time and the effort (and hope the wisdom teeth holes aren't too bad, hopefully they gave you the good gear.)

I agree entirely that giving away few free kicks is a key here and I agree with your analysis of why that is. But there's more to it than that.

As I said earlier, the Dogs under Bevo play a very head office friendly style of game. Its also a style of game that's well suited to the Dogs home ground, and it is also stands up in finals, so its a good style.

You've outlined well the raw data on frees for and frees against and I have no argument with that. But there's other elements that come into play.

First, the frees for with certain players. If Weightman/Hunter/McLean are getting their one free a game from a free won with an exaggerated head throw back manoeuvre then that's three "staged for" frees a game.

Billy and Bettty Bumfluff sitting on the couch in lockdown watching that - as neutrals - aren't going to go "Oh well Betty he only averages 1.35 frees game", they're going to go "AGAIN? Little shit ducked his head/threw it back!"

Which leads us to the real nub of the matter - PERCEPTION.

The perception is that the Dogs get an easy ride off the umpires. We've dealt with a lot of quantifiable data here but one of the key ones for mine is one you can't quantify - the proverbial frees that aren't paid.

They key here is the throws. Dogs players throw the ball. Regularly. It is clearly part of the team plan. Again, yes, all teams will get pinged for throwing in a game.

But terms like "flicking it around", "he flicks it out", "I'm not sure how he got rid of that one" pepper a Dogs game. This comes back to my earlier point about the Dogs under Bevo playing a very AFL House friendly style of game - fast paced movement of the ball.

The umpires are more likely to let a questionable handball go than they are a fierce tackle that "could" be construed as dangerous. A throw doesn't hurt anyone or turn Mums off wanting their precious darlings to play AusKick.

So, if there's a passage of play where the commentator is unaware how the player got rid of that one, and some Dogs midfielders flick it around to get through the zone, then there's a contest in the forward line where Cody Weightman "makes sure" the umpire notices high contact and scores a goal from the resulting free, the PERCEPTION among neutrals is that the Dogs are getting unfairly looked after.

In reality, that passage of play and the free kick count almost certainly have no impact on how that game is decided. Even if it is decided by a margin of under six points - the losing side will have missed a gettable set shot, or even should have just stopped the Dogs mids working their exceptionally well drilled "flicking it around".

There's no doubt that PERCEPTION is well established. And not just among nuffs like us, a senior AFL coach and one of the more respected figures in the game in Longmire has some strong views on it too.

But perceptions and reality are often very different things, as you've pointed out with stats.

Perception is also in the same ballpark as NARRATIVE.

Bevo has very successfully built a narrative that the Dogs are a fair ball playing team that are only ever the victims of rough boys from rough clubs (see T Greene) that don't play footy the right way and more importantly are thugs who bring a bad light on the game.

This can't be understated and creating narratives is a key function of what coaches do these days, and Bevo is a master of it. He created a narrative internally that led the Dogs to the 2016 flag.

So if you've got the narrative that you're a fair ball playing team, that gives you room to manoeuvre.

It is obvious that Weightman/Hunter/McLean have mastered the art of maximising their chances of winning the free/playing for the free.

To do this requires practice. In a professional football team, where the number of practice set shots for goal is monitored as part of the almighty "load", this practice is known about by the coaching team and its practice and use is encouraged.

Bevo has worked out it - entering the contest in certain situations with the aim of winning the ball by a free kick - is a skill in modern footy and it is practised and certain players who are good at it and play in certain positions have licence to go for it.

Players also practice launching for intercept marks - but only some have licence to go for it. Some players have licence to go for torps.

I'm not saying it is cheating. Is Trent Cotchin giving away a cynical professional free to allow his intercept marking defenders to get set and hopefully win possession cheating?

Here's my summation:

* I think what Bevo has done in building a very successful game style that's based on fast ball movement is brilliant. It's won a flag. I note David Noble is trying to do the same thing at North. I think it is the direction of footy. I think the days of "unsociable footy" are behind us as well. In 2030 most if not all teams will largely look like the Dogs in that basic game style.

* I think Bevo has very successfully created a narrative/brand about the Dogs that is partly drawn from the above but also driven by the Dogs off field stance as Good Citizens of the AFL. They do all the right things re community engagement and W and ditching pokies etc. The two together have given rise to the perception of a Goody Two Shoes club that's flavour of the month at AFL House. That feeds the PERCEPTION that the umpires are iased towards the Dogs and there should be a Royal Commission.

* I think Bevo coaches certain players to win the ball in certain situations via a free kick and those players practise that direction like it is a skill of the game. He also directs certain players to win the ball by flying for an intercept mark and those players practise that direction like etc etc.

Accordingly, I think any Dog fan who denies that certain of their players are very good at winning possession by free kick are actually doing their coach and players a disservice.
 
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Some Idiot said:
The most telling factor that makes your theory less plausible (Now I think you raised some good points about AFL house not caring about throws and wanting to promote an exciting gameplan) is that our free kicks for is actually on par with most teams, the big outlier is actually our low free kicks against. Which is why bulldogs supporters put it down to discipline more than anything else.

Realistically the team is only slightly better at not giving away free kicks than most teams and that adds up to a large number across the season.
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Yeah - I've addressed this at length above. It is too simplistic to say dur hur hur the Dogs cheat and umpires love them but it is equally naive to pretend that professional sports team, especially one coached by someone as astute as Beveridge, don't factor in free kicks/umpiring and and how it can be manipulated.

Clarkson was clearly willing to wear a few free kicks if it meant Hodge/Lewis etc could physically impose themselves on an opponent.
 

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SimpkinByTheDockOfTheBay said:
Billy and Bettty Bumfluff sitting on the couch in lockdown watching that - as neutrals - aren't going to go "Oh well Betty he only averages 1.35 frees game", they're going to go "AGAIN? Little sh*t ducked his head/threw it back!"
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You've used a lot of words but this was probably the most relevant part for me. There doesn't need to be too many of the football watching public lacking the ability to perform basic reasoning and making these ''XXX player is a cheat'' claims before we end up with persistent repetition of these ideas without scrutiny. Which can lead to last week's bullshit of Weightman copping personal abuse on social media.

It's irresponsible of people to not stop and look for these explanations and, as you are doing here, engage in discussions instead of engaging in shitposting.

It's pretty clear that there are interesting discussions that can be had in picking apart where this perception comes from, but instead we're stuck repeatedly hearing the same superficial bias claims.
 
DogsAreBarking said:
You've used a lot of words but this was probably the most relevant part for me. There doesn't need to be too many of the football watching public lacking the ability to perform basic reasoning and making these ''XXX player is a cheat'' claims before we end up with persistent repetition of these ideas without scrutiny. Which can lead to last week's bullshit of Weightman copping personal abuse on social media.
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It didn't help that Weightman did it against the most toxic fanbase in a final.

Thing is, he's the perfect example of what I'm talking about, even more than Hunter or McLean.

His gut running to effect smothers in the last two finals has been outstanding. Elite. Brave as hell and requiring real athletic ability

And he can take a speccy, and has licence to fly for them. Again, elite contested mark forward in that situation. Brave as hell and requiring real athletic ability.

But he also goes into some contests looking to win the free as the means of gaining possession. He's bloody good at it too. Elite. Smart as hell and requiring real athletic ability.
 
ButtersILove said:
Even if you want to cry that it was technically a free kick, Lake's shoulder barely grazed Riewoldt's, and Riewoldt still tumbled over like a baby. Clear dive, something he did all throughout his career. Performed another shocking dive against Lachie Hansen early in 2010 too.

The point is, if bitter St Kilda supporters like you are going to have a crack at any opposition player for "diving", then remember that the greatest player to ever play for your club was also one of the worst stagers the game has ever seen.
Click to expand...

Lake had been bumping Riewoldt off the ball during the first half and the umpires warned him that if he kept doing it it would be a free kick, Lake was stupid enough to do it again before the siren went to start the 2nd half and Riewoldt made the most of it, smart from Riewoldt and dumb from Lake.

Also Riewoldt isn't known as one of the worst stagers the game has ever seen, he milked a few free kicks but he was no worse than most forwards.
 
ButtersILove said:
Even if you want to cry that it was technically a free kick, Lake's shoulder barely grazed Riewoldt's, and Riewoldt still tumbled over like a baby. Clear dive, something he did all throughout his career. Performed another shocking dive against Lachie Hansen early in 2010 too.

The point is, if bitter St Kilda supporters like you are going to have a crack at any opposition player for "diving", then remember that the greatest player to ever play for your club was also one of the worst stagers the game has ever seen.
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Bollocks.
 
staffonly said:
I haven't posted anything at all about being bitter. What you've done is show a clear free kick and tried to insult one of the best CHF the AFL has seen in the process.
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Whether or not it was a free kick is besides the point. The point is Riewoldt dived, and he dived several times throughout his career. If you're going to whine about other players "staging", keep in mind your club legend was one of the most pathetic stagers to play the game.
 
ButtersILove said:
Whether or not it was a free kick is besides the point. The point is Riewoldt dived, and he dived several times throughout his career. If you're going to whine about other players "staging", keep in mind your club legend was one of the most pathetic stagers to play the game.
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Several times in over 300 games is completely understandable.Basing your game on it weekly is not.
 

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The Bulldogs and Umpires: Time for a Royal Commission?

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