Strategy The case for a third tall forward

[El_Scorcho]

"The case for a third tall forward"
One thing is very evident in all this is the failure for Butcher to produce the goods.

Just on this, here is a list of KPF under 24 years of age who are averaging 1 goal a game and have been playing regularly.

Gunston
Cameron
Lynch (GC)
Darling
Patton
Jones
Daniher
Day

Now, let's remove the expansion clubs players, as they are getting games because their sides don't have KPP over the age of 24 so they are naturally going to get on the end of more forward thrusts on average. I'll leave Lynch and Cameron in because they're averaging 2 goals a game.

Gunston
Cameron
Lynch
Darling
Daniher
Jones

6 blokes. 6 KPF under the age of 24 who are regularly getting a game are kicking a goal a game on average. I'm even being generous putting Darling on the list as a genuine KPF, as he is a medium who plays tall.

Yet clubs all over the league are giving games to their young talls because they understand that the best way to develop a tall at AFL level is to get games into him. I'm not exactly sure what people are expecting from Butcher in terms of output. There would be a handful of KPFs Butcher's age or younger who are bettering his 1.4 goal a game average.

He's not failing to produce the goods. His output is pretty much on par of what you'd expect from a KPF of his experience.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Way too much. Its good to have depth but holding 8 KPFs on the list would be craziness. Im not even sure Adelaide at the peak of Rendells tall infatuation had 8 KPFs on their list, nor Hawthorn when they were picking KPFs with first rounders year in year out.
...

Sure 8 is too much but if you went that far, you can let some of them play as a KPD or trade a couple away at the end of the season who aren't going anywhere. My prefered option is to have 5 or 6 spread out over those 5 x 3 year age brackest not 3 at the bottom and 2 or 3 at the top and nothing in between. Its why we should recruit 1 KFP each year either on the main list or rookie list. Its a bit like having nuclear weapons. Its handy to have them there, just in case you need to use them.

 

[yepits2020]

There is a case for a third tall forward. Preferably a resting ruck. At the moment we effectively have one tall forward, so we actually need a second tall. But maybe we just don't have the cattle just yet.

 

[Powerade 08]

Just on this, here is a list of KPF under 24 years of age who are averaging 1 goal a game and have been playing regularly.

Err, yeah, but Butch kicked most of those goals in his first 3 games which was a long time ago and has done nothing since.

First 3 games: 11 goals, 11 contested marks, 11 marks i50
Since: 20 games for 22 goals, 10 contested marks, 22 marks i50

His only 2 goals this year came from crumbing off Boak in round 1 instead of contesting it himself (Should have been dropped for this, was unforgivable for a tall forward) and then a chopping the arms free kick against Brent Reilly. He is cooked. You don't waste games on players who are going backwards or are clearly not up to it.

 

[Powerade 08]

I guess that suggests that somewhere in this year's trades and drafts we have to go tall.

Yea but we've been saying that every year for the last 10.

What did we do with last years draft? Small defender, back-up small defender and then a back-up back-up small defender in the rookie draft. Sam Colquhoun the year before too.

Plenty of room on the Sack Rhode bandwagon if you want to jump on.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Err, yeah, but Butch kicked most of those goals in his first 3 games which was a long time ago and has done nothing since.

First 3 games: 11 goals, 11 contested marks, 11 marks i50
Since: 20 games for 22 goals, 10 contested marks, 22 marks i50

The latter is still a perfectly reasonable and expected return for a sub 20 game KPF under 23 years od age and you have totally unrealistic expectations if you disagree.

His only 2 goals this year came from crumbing off Boak in round 1 instead of contesting it himself (Should have been dropped for this, was unforgivable for a tall forward) and then a chopping the arms free kick against Brent Reilly. He is cooked. You don't waste games on players who are going backwards or are clearly not up to it.

Who cares if he scored a crumbing goal? A good KPF is good when the ball hits the ground. 6 points is 6 points and hey, we've been sorely lacking crumbers in the last 2 weeks anyway. Maybe if Butch was playing on Saturday we'd have had some resistance to a pack of Essendon players waltzing the ball out of our forward 50.

The goal against the crows was a clear pushout after a good lead, not an arm chop. Reilly pushed him because otherwise it was a certain mark from a good lead.

That goal put us back in the lead as well.

 

[El_Scorcho]

We currently have 3 tall forwards running around every week in the SANFL. I'd be happy to see a 6th KPF on our list but it doesn't matter how many we have if we are only playing 2 in the AFL.

If Shaw had been fit all season, and Redden and Renouf were fit we'd be looking a lot stronger in tall depth.

We need to have 4 genuine rucks on our list, but 5 or 6 KPFs is plenty.

Also, Lobbe was drafted as a KPF/Ruck. Our fault hasn't been failing to draft a KPF who would be 25 now, it's that we didn't develop Lobbe as a KPF/Can't yse him as a KPF because we didn't draft adequate rucks.

 

[Andre]

Yea but we've been saying that every year for the last 10.

What did we do with last years draft? Small defender, back-up small defender and then a back-up back-up small defender in the rookie draft. Sam Colquhoun the year before too.

Plenty of room on the Sack Rhode bandwagon if you want to jump on.

Ken inherited a list with so many areas needing addressing not all could be done at once. Last year it was the speedy sides that destroyed us. Drafting/trading was about getting speed into the list. Ken did that and it's paying dividends with Polec, White, Impey now. And with Amon, Bryne-Jones and Flynn progressing for the future. It's not a drafting / trading policy that needs to be revisited, that flaw has been rectified.

The next most obvious flaw is now the need for a tall forward. Ken has said he wants one, so if he doesn't have faith in the ones he's got, then I expect we will try to get at least one in the draft and trade period. If we did replicate last years drafting / trading strategy this year, then we can scream in frustration.

 

[raptalia]

Yea but we've been saying that every year for the last 10.

What did we do with last years draft? Small defender, back-up small defender and then a back-up back-up small defender in the rookie draft. Sam Colquhoun the year before too.

Plenty of room on the Sack Rhode bandwagon if you want to jump on.

The past is past. What we need to focus on is the future. We need an experienced tall or two or have I got that wrong ?
I do not see where sack Rohde comes into it, maybe it is just me but I think Peter Rhode has a lot less say in who we take these days. I think Hinkley, Hart and Walsh have a lot more say in our list strategy than Matty Primus ever did and they possibly have more say than Choco did in his last few years.

A little unfair to put Sam Colquhoun in that mix because we took him in the PSD and there would not have been much in the way of quality tall players around at that late stage. If we are going to pick up a tall who could slot into next year's side we probably need to do it in the trade period and look at someone with some experience. If we stick to our strategy of taking the best available player regardless of size with our first round draft pick then look at drafting a tall he could well be a late second round tall with no experience. Is that going to help ? As remote as it may seem I would love to get Sam Day or Scott Lycett but the cost would be significant.

To add a bit to the mix none of us can be sure how much progress guys like Clurey or Shaw will make next year or if the enigmatic John Butcher will take his chances at AFL level. If these guys come off it eases the pressure on KPPs but I definitely think we will need a back ruckman.

 

[Powerade 08]

Who cares if he scored a crumbing goal?

Me, because we want a leading and marking target not a guy who runs sideways and backwards and hardly ever contests in the air. When Butcher is in the team he doesn't make a difference. The forward-line disappearing act still happens.

Also, Lobbe was drafted as a KPF/Ruck. Our fault hasn't been failing to draft a KPF who would be 25 now, it's that we didn't develop Lobbe as a KPF/Can't yse him as a KPF because we didn't draft adequate rucks.

Well that doesn't do a whole lot to restore my faith in Rhode and the drafting teams ability to pick em. He was a first rounder and has never shown anything as a forward or even just taking marks around the ground.

Ken inherited a list with so many areas needing addressing not all could be done at once. Last year it was the speedy sides that destroyed us. Drafting/trading was about getting speed into the list. Ken did that and it's paying dividends with Polec, White, Impey now. And with Amon, Bryne-Jones and Flynn progressing for the future. It's not a drafting / trading policy that needs to be revisited, that flaw has been rectified.

The next most obvious flaw is now the need for a tall forward. Ken has said he wants one, so if he doesn't have faith in the ones he's got, then I expect we will try to get at least one in the draft and trade period. If we did replicate last years drafting / trading strategy this year, then we can scream in frustration.

Ken doesn't scout and draft the players.

The past is past. What we need to focus on is the future. We need an experienced tall or two or have I got that wrong ?
I do not see where sack Rohde comes into it, maybe it is just me but I think Peter Rhode has a lot less say in who we take these days. I think Hinkley, Hart and Walsh have a lot more say in our list strategy than Matty Primus ever did and they possibly have more say than Choco did in his last few years.

... no comment.

 

[Andre]

Ken doesn't scout and draft the players.

He tells the scouts / recruiters what he's after in player types though. And with White at least he very much was responsible for getting him to Port.

 

[BIG MATTY WHITE]

Just on this, here is a list of KPF under 24 years of age who are averaging 1 goal a game and have been playing regularly.

Gunston
Cameron
Lynch (GC)
Darling
Patton
Jones
Daniher
Day

Now, let's remove the expansion clubs players, as they are getting games because their sides don't have KPP over the age of 24 so they are naturally going to get on the end of more forward thrusts on average. I'll leave Lynch and Cameron in because they're averaging 2 goals a game.

Gunston
Cameron
Lynch
Darling
Daniher
Jones

6 blokes. 6 KPF under the age of 24 who are regularly getting a game are kicking a goal a game on average. I'm even being generous putting Darling on the list as a genuine KPF, as he is a medium who plays tall.

Yet clubs all over the league are giving games to their young talls because they understand that the best way to develop a tall at AFL level is to get games into him. I'm not exactly sure what people are expecting from Butcher in terms of output. There would be a handful of KPFs Butcher's age or younger who are bettering his 1.4 goal a game average.

He's not failing to produce the goods. His output is pretty much on par of what you'd expect from a KPF of his experience.

This is the post thats convinced me about playing a 3rd tall

Nice post El_Scorcho

 

[Power Girl]

I wrote in another thread that Westhoff said on the news tonight he is annoying Ken by constantly asking him to play 3 talls. He made mention of Butcher and how he wanted him back in the team. Now i was serving up dinner at the time but Im pretty sure this is right. But someone will correct me I'm sure if I'm wrong.

 

[Seanybruz]

I wrote in another thread that Westhoff said on the news tonight he is annoying Ken by constantly asking him to play 3 talls. He made mention of Butcher and how he wanted him back in the team. Now i was serving up dinner at the time but Im pretty sure this is right. But someone will correct me I'm sure if I'm wrong.

Yep that's right, Hoff & Jay keep remind Ken all the time they want another tall forward up there but what would they know about the forward line structure or lack thereof lol.

 

[klem22]

I wrote in another thread that Westhoff said on the news tonight he is annoying Ken by constantly asking him to play 3 talls. He made mention of Butcher and how he wanted him back in the team. Now i was serving up dinner at the time but Im pretty sure this is right. But someone will correct me I'm sure if I'm wrong.

No doubt the need.
What is shown here is a no confidence vote in the next in line to do the job.
The bridge is crumbling for the "future"

 

[edgie]

If Hoff and Sarge have confidence in Butcher, then that is all I need. Sarge and Hoff didn't exactly hit the ground rubbing in their careers (2007 aside), but they were given games and eventually it they produced more often.

Sent from my Lumia 800 using Tapatalk

 

[philthy05]

what do you mean butcher isnt an elite afl standard key forward from the start of his career?

time and time again we have always known that key forwards were elite from the start!

when will people realize the only way we are ever going to get a great key forward is to keep drafting them in , and immediately discard anyone who hasnt lived up to our expectations 20 games into their career.

failing that we can just grab one of the many good key forwards that will be available in trade week. i have a radical idea.... im sure no one has ever thought of this before but what if we just trade a good one in? lol if only every other team had ever thought of this in the many years teams havent been able to develop their own key forwards. i must be thinking outside the box.

ill be back later guys , im off to email kochie. hmmmm now should i suggest we trade for sam reid or trade butcher for a second round pick so we can draft jesse watchman. project player ? im sure he will kick heaps more goals then butcher in the next couple of years.

 

[PowerBaz]

The problem we had the last two weeks is goal kicking. What's butchers biggest problem? I'd like to see mason shaw but can understand the lack if faith. However, Butcher competes really well, and second efforts are great. I'd say to him stand inside 50 and don't leave it, present and contest, knock it down for the small forwards and it would also stretch the oppositions defense. I seriously don't want the same team this week, we had that shit under Choco and primus.

 

[AJJPAFC]

If hes put a line through Butch and refuses to debut SHaw its a joke

I honestly think if Shaw keeps kicking goals and taking good grabs he will get his debut this year. You can only claim immaturity for so long if a player is putting the score on the board. Shaw needs to prove in more then one game that he can ran out a game.

That said, I'd play him against the Tigers, he could kick 13 on Chaplin.

 

[edgie]

I honestly think if Shaw keeps kicking goals and taking good grabs he will get his debut this year. You can only claim immaturity for so long if a player is putting the score on the board. Shaw needs to prove in more then one game that he can ran out a game.

That said, I'd play him against the Tigers, he could kick 13 on Chaplin.

Of course if he keeps good form up he will get a debut, then he will get dropped within 2 weeks for nothing. Butcher mark2. Development!

 

[FallingLiefs]

Err, yeah, but Butch kicked most of those goals in his first 3 games which was a long time ago and has done nothing since.

First 3 games: 11 goals, 11 contested marks, 11 marks i50
Since: 20 games for 22 goals, 10 contested marks, 22 marks i50

His only 2 goals this year came from crumbing off Boak in round 1 instead of contesting it himself (Should have been dropped for this, was unforgivable for a tall forward) and then a chopping the arms free kick against Brent Reilly. He is cooked. You don't waste games on players who are going backwards or are clearly not up to it.

so when you take away his good games, he still averages over a goal a game. are you just trying to support El_Scorcho's list of KPF of over 1 goal a game? by disregarding his good games he is still in that list of elite 6 KPF's under 24.

i don't for a second think he's as good as those players but bringing up those stats and comparing them to the norm doesn't really help your argument.

 

[El_Scorcho]

so when you take away his good games, he still averages over a goal a game. are you just trying to support El_Scorcho's list of KPF of over 1 goal a game? by disregarding his good games he is still in that list of elite 6 KPF's under 24.

i don't for a second think he's as good as those players but bringing up those stats and comparing them to the norm doesn't really help your argument.

Yep. It's a really puzzling post.

Even if we (very generously to the Butcher detractors) ignore his first 3 games, we have KPF who has kicked 22 goals in his first 20 games.

As josh the gent pointed out on the Bulldogs board (in a post where he both talked up Liam Jones as a developing prospect and suggested they try to steal Butcher for a low draft pick), Travis Cloke kicked 16 goals in his first 30 games and future HOFer Nick Riewoldt kicked 23 in his first 30.

 

[FallingLiefs]

So there is now 5 games left of the season after this week. The consistent message coming from the coaching group and club is they want a second tall to play forward. If the coaching group are serious it has to be reaching a climax. One would think the player coming in would need 3-4 weeks in the team to gel or at least test the structure. There's only so much a player can do in the shithole of the SNAFL football. It cannot be expected for a player to kick 5-6 goals at that level consistently let alone an inexperienced one. So the options are obviously Butcher and Shaw which for differing short falls are not getting a game. What i will find infuriating is if the coaches don't give them the opportunity to succeed. If the next 3 weeks pass and the club continues to play known quantities (and fringe ones at that in Mitchell and Gray) instead of having a go to genuinely improve the side. To me that's accepting mediocrity because we are not premiership certainties and wouldn't have taken every opportunity to achieve it, even if that is risking a loss.

 

[Powerade 08]

by disregarding his good games he is still in that list of elite 6 KPF's under 24.

It is just a list of guys starting out with Butcher and Jones tacked on. The reason there are not more players on it is because they usually get delisted after 3 or 4 years of nothing.

 

[El_Scorcho]

It is just a list of guys starting out with Butcher and Jones tacked on. The reason there are not more players on it is because they usually get delisted after 3 or 4 years of nothing.

This makes absolutely no sense and you're becoming more wildly illogical as this debate rages on.

If your argument is that more people would be on this list (of players who are averaging more than a goal a game) but have been delisted within 3 or 4 years of being drafted, that's even more evidence that we should be persisting with Butcher (and to scour the delistings for KPFs that were delisted to quickly)

If your argument is that everyone who didn't make this list was being delisted after "3 or 4 years of nothing" there would literally a handful of KPF over 23 years of age in the AFL at the moment. The fact is, a lot of KPF get persisted with, both in games and on lists, because everybody knows that apart from the odd freak like Jeremy Cameron, KPF take time to develop.