One slight problem with your argument. Port are playing the Hawks this weekend. After Friday night, I don't think they will get within a "bulls roar" of us.
Stranger things have happened.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
The fight for top 4 & top 8
- Thread starter The Prosecutor
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One slight problem with your argument. Port are playing the Hawks this weekend. After Friday night, I don't think they will get within a "bulls roar" of us.
Stranger things have happened.
Under Ross Lyon, Our defense is our strongest asset. You may win, but it won't be by 60 that's for sure.
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Yep, you are right.
Yeah good point, North did struggle with the Ross Lyon style when he was at St Kilda.
It's on our home turf though and we generally play well at Etihad.
We will have LT & Ziebell back by then as well.
this week is vital for west coast. win and they play finals. we will see how bad they want it come friday
seems every time they have a vital game (get into 4 etc) they **** it up
bit like us
cats to just miss 4...although i do believe they are as good as top 4 sides
think freo may just miss out after watching bombers tonight
seems every time they have a vital game (get into 4 etc) they **** it up
bit like us
cats to just miss 4...although i do believe they are as good as top 4 sides
think freo may just miss out after watching bombers tonight
Looking at the race for the top four, six sides are still in the hunt for the double chance, with four of those a realistic chance for top two. North, Essendon or Fremantle could still mathematically snatch fourth, but would need virtually every result to go their way, so are looking at positions 6-9 in all likelihood.
Here's how I assess the current top six's prospects:
Sydney - a lock for top four, given 16 wins will probably be enough (hence just one more) and they have the Dogs in two weeks. Looking good for top two, too, although are no certainties given tough games against the Pies, Hawks and Cats (away). Will need to win won of these to claim first or second.
Adelaide - a lock for top four with their handy run home, and also (for the same reason) should be at the shortest odds for top two. Freo at home this week suddenly looms as a danger game, though, given the Dockers' hot form, and a loss there may spell trouble given the better percentage of Hawthorn and Sydney.
Collingwood - difficult draw, but it's hard to imagine such a finals-hardened side will not win the two games necessary to probably clinch top four. Three wins could secure a top two spot, although given it's percentage situation, only winning every game will make this a near certainty - 'near' because it will still require Adelaide to drop one of it's games, or the Swans to lose to the Hawks or Cats.
Hawthorn - the (most recent) loss to the Cats has probably cost it a top two berth, although given its strong percentage a win in every game (thus 17 wins all up) will give it every chance. Has two very winnable games against Port and Gold Coast, so 15 wins looks the minimum expectation. A win against either Sydney or West Coast will lock up top four; even 15 wins may be enough.
West Coast - four from four will probably secure top four, especially as this means they will have defeated the two teams they have a chance of overtaking (Hawthorn and Collingwood). Anything less and, barring some unexpected results, fifth or sixth is the best they can hope for, as their percentage isn't as strong as it was a month ago. They could drop as low as seventh or eighth if they lose their three remaining tough games (Cats and Pies at home, Hawks away), but I expect they'll regain form.
Geelong - Similar to West Coast in that four wins will give them every chance of the top four, although they are more reliant than the Eagles on other results, as they don't play the Pies and Hawks again. Given the Cats' good form, but tricky run (Eagles away, Saints, Swans at home; plus a seemingly easy game vs the Dogs) three wins and fifth spot looks a likely outcome.
Here's how I assess the current top six's prospects:
Sydney - a lock for top four, given 16 wins will probably be enough (hence just one more) and they have the Dogs in two weeks. Looking good for top two, too, although are no certainties given tough games against the Pies, Hawks and Cats (away). Will need to win won of these to claim first or second.
Adelaide - a lock for top four with their handy run home, and also (for the same reason) should be at the shortest odds for top two. Freo at home this week suddenly looms as a danger game, though, given the Dockers' hot form, and a loss there may spell trouble given the better percentage of Hawthorn and Sydney.
Collingwood - difficult draw, but it's hard to imagine such a finals-hardened side will not win the two games necessary to probably clinch top four. Three wins could secure a top two spot, although given it's percentage situation, only winning every game will make this a near certainty - 'near' because it will still require Adelaide to drop one of it's games, or the Swans to lose to the Hawks or Cats.
Hawthorn - the (most recent) loss to the Cats has probably cost it a top two berth, although given its strong percentage a win in every game (thus 17 wins all up) will give it every chance. Has two very winnable games against Port and Gold Coast, so 15 wins looks the minimum expectation. A win against either Sydney or West Coast will lock up top four; even 15 wins may be enough.
West Coast - four from four will probably secure top four, especially as this means they will have defeated the two teams they have a chance of overtaking (Hawthorn and Collingwood). Anything less and, barring some unexpected results, fifth or sixth is the best they can hope for, as their percentage isn't as strong as it was a month ago. They could drop as low as seventh or eighth if they lose their three remaining tough games (Cats and Pies at home, Hawks away), but I expect they'll regain form.
Geelong - Similar to West Coast in that four wins will give them every chance of the top four, although they are more reliant than the Eagles on other results, as they don't play the Pies and Hawks again. Given the Cats' good form, but tricky run (Eagles away, Saints, Swans at home; plus a seemingly easy game vs the Dogs) three wins and fifth spot looks a likely outcome.
- Aug 17, 2006
- 23,678
- 22,259
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- Geelong
They weren't helped by the results on Saturday night and Sunday (though their position in the finals was made far more secure), but if Geelong can win their last four (by no means easy, but certainly not impossible either: two games in Geel, Bulldogs at Etihad, Eagles at Patersons), they can make it, with one of the following scenarios to happen and they're in:
Sydney: To lose to the Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Collingwood. Even with a Gee v Syd game in Round 23, there's too much percentage to make up, unless Hawthorn and Collingwood both absolutely destroy the Swans. They have to lose to the Bulldogs, which means they're probably safe.
Adelaide: Lose to three of Fremantle at AAMI, Brisbane at the Gabba, Melbourne at the MCG, Gold Coast at AAMI. Not going to happen. Next.
Collingwood: To lose to three of Sydney (ANZ), North Melbourne (ES), West Coast (Patersons), Essendon (MCG). Could see them losing any of those, really. But Collingwood tend to bounce back from a loss pretty quickly, so it's pretty fanciful to think they'll drop three of them.
Hawthorn: To lose two of Port Adelaide (Aurora), Gold Coast (MCG), Sydney (SCG), West Coast (MCG). Two easy ones, a very tough one and a question mark, depending on how West Coast bounces back over the next month. You'd imagine they'd get to sixteen wins from here though.
Basically, the Cats need to win all their games and then hope that the Eagles can do them some big favours. Fifth is the more realistic expectation.
6-2 after the previous eight.
Did The Ladder Predictor with all the winning teams on the 30 point scale,this is how it came up at the end.
Adelaide
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Sydney
West Coast
Geelong
North Melbourne
Fremantle
Adelaide
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Sydney
West Coast
Geelong
North Melbourne
Fremantle
That's what I came up with. Saints and Blues have to win all remaining games to make it (they play each other in the last round.)
Good call
- Oct 9, 2006
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- Super Tottenham....from the Lane.
Andrew Demetriou will be praying for this outcome. It is the best scenario from a scheduling, ticket sales and TV ratings perspective.
- Apr 10, 2010
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Would be a cracker of a first round, for Freo it looks like win 3 and we're in, win 2 and it's %.
I'm so hoping for a Derby final. Would be unreal
I was living in Perth for the Showdown final, so i missed the build up. At least i'd get to see the build up (even though they are not my teams) in the week running into it
Would be a terrible result for WC
Great call back in July NB. Blues are a cert to finish higher than the floundering Bombers.
Top 4 is now set just the final order to be determined.
Top 8 is now a 2 horse race and could be settled by the end of this round. Has been a cracking year.
00Stinger
100 - 7
Great call back in July NB. Blues are a cert to finish higher than the floundering Bombers.
Top 4 is now set just the final order to be determined.
Top 8 is now a 2 horse race and could be settled by the end of this round. Has been a cracking year.
How so, if WC beat Collingwood this weekend Collingwood are out of the top 4 and West Coast are in. I know that West Coast get Hawthorn the following week, however to say the top 4 is set is not exactly right IMO
Oh dear!
I think the 5/1 on offer is unders and would not touch it. Injuries and your not going good enough to win the next 2.
Necromancer Beth
Turn On The Bright Lights
Great call back in July NB. Blues are a cert to finish higher than the floundering Bombers.
Top 4 is now set just the final order to be determined.
Top 8 is now a 2 horse race and could be settled by the end of this round. Has been a cracking year.
Thanks mate. People thought I was an idiot for saying that. But once again, I am proven to be right
Have you had a change of mind after watching our midfield dominate on the weekend - without Wells and Adams?
Listing Essendon's above ours is a glaring mistake.
Has Call Me Cake ever posted anything that wasn't pure dribble?
I don't believe it has happened yet. He is very quiet at the minute which is refreshing.
Awesome effort by the Kangas, wonder how the AFL will spin making them play the all stars.
