AFL Grand Final The minor premiers curse - Are Melbourne doomed before the ball is bounced on Grand Final day?

[Goalski14]

In the past 11 years only 1 team has finished as minor premier and then gone on to salute on Grand Final day. 6 since the turn of the century.

Essendon 2000
Port Adelaide 2004
West Coast 2006
Geelong 2007
Collingwood 2010
Hawthorn 2013

Is top spot cursed? Are Melbourne going to break the duck? Or does this streak continue, the Bulldogs coming from outside the top 4 yet again to win the flag?

Are teams just simply crumbling under external pressure that comes with dominating in the regular season?


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[gangsta deluxe]

Most often it’s because the top team peaked in form too early during the season and not finals.

This isn’t at all the case for Melbourne.

 

[conrad_437]

Yeah. Because Danster and all the other Melbourne/Sydney luminaries told me that the umpires will screw Melbourne over to ensure a Dogs premiership.

 

[SSwans2011]

I think this is overblown. In 2020, the best team in the comp was probably a toss-up of any of the top four. In 2019, Richmond was still the standout team in the comp. Hawthorn were probably the best team in the comp in each of their flag years despite not finishing on top in 2014 or 2015.

I think Melbourne have been the standout team this year, and I'd say in at least half of the years of the last decade, the standout team in the competition has gone on to win the flag.

 

[mike ross]

To win 24/25 games to win the premiership whilst finishing on top, the Essendon side of 2000 was pretty special.

And add the preseason cup as well.

 

[SSwans2011]

Yeah. Because Danster and all the other Melbourne/Sydney luminaries told me that the umpires will screw Melbourne over to ensure a Dogs premiership.

Not one single Sydney poster has said anything about the umpires in the match thread for this year's GF. Why bother mentioning us? You guys are playing in the Grand Final, and our season has been over for a month.

I'm personally excited. Think both teams play an exciting brand of football, so should be a cracking game to watch. Can't pick a winner.

 

[Johnny Karate]

In the past 11 years only 1 team has finished as minor premier and then gone on to salute on Grand Final day. 6 since the turn of the century.

Essendon 2000
Port Adelaide 2004
West Coast 2006
Geelong 2007
Collingwood 2010
Hawthorn 2013

Is top spot cursed? Are Melbourne going to break the duck? Or does this streak continue, the Bulldogs coming from outside the top 4 yet again to win the flag?

Are teams just simply crumbling under external pressure that comes with dominating in the regular season?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

The only minor premier I can remember being that much better than everyone else and losing was Geelong in 2008.

 

[conrad_437]

Not one single Sydney poster has said anything about the umpires in the match thread for this year's GF. Why bother mentioning us? You guys are playing in the Grand Final, and our season has been over for a month.

I'm personally excited. Think both teams play an exciting brand of football, so should be a cracking game to watch. Can't pick a winner.

It's an easy dig, granted, but it's also well known that Sydney supporters have plagued Bulldogs umpiring threads this year. Gameday threads for the past month have been littered with it too from Melbourne and Syndey supporters.

You might be excited. I'm ****ing shitting myself. I hate Grand Final week with my whole existence. I genuinely reckon it's a 50/50 game (aside from what all the media commentary is saying) and I reckon it's going to be the most nerve-wrecking two hours of my life since the 2016 PF.

 

[Blackas87]

How many have won it from 5th spot since the turn of the century?

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Minor premiers that have actually made the Grand final:

Essendon 2000
Essendon 2001
Port Adelaide 2004
West Coast 2006
Geelong 2007
Geelong 2008
St Kilda 2009
Collingwood 2010
Collingwood 2011
Hawthorn 2012
Hawthorn 2013
Sydney 2014
Sydney 2016
Adelaide 2017

6/14 winners. Of the 8 losses all but two (Geelong 2008, Sydney 2016) were non-dynasty sides losing to dynasty sides.

ie if the Dogs win they’re on for a dynasty

 

[kendrick]

Richmond owned the 2018 season and then Mason Cox

46

Mason Cox

Age

33

Ht

211cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.7

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.3

2star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.8

5star

played his only ever standout game and that was the end of what would probably have been a 4 peat

 

[Blackas87]

Since 2000 premiership winners from ladder position

1st: 6
2nd: 7
3rd: 7
4th: 0
5th: 0
6th: 0
7th: 1
8th: 0

 

[Goalski14]

I’m always fascinated by stats like this, either Melbourne end the streak or the Bulldogs become the first team to win from 5th in the current finals system. Both teams capable of staying at the top for many years to come, going to be a ripping grand final and hopefully a close one for the neutrals.


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[Johnny Karate]

Since 2000 premiership winners from ladder position

1st: 6
2nd: 7
3rd: 7
4th: 0
5th: 0
6th: 0
7th: 1
8th: 0

[BigFooty logic]Therefore, 7th>4th.[/BigFooty logic]

The best team on the day or the team that strikes form in September wins the flag. The minor premiership gets you a good starting grid position for September, nothing more. That said, I doubt any AFL side is hoping to finish 2nd or 3rd in the home and away rather than 1st.

 

[BigVic]

2nd and 3rd are common with West Coast being the most recent 2nd-placed team to win it

 

[Toump Ass]

Shoulda tanked the game against Geelong in Round 23.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Obviously these trends can change very easily.

Go back to 2013 and 6 of the 14 premiers this century had won from 1st, with 5 from 2nd and just 3 from 3rd.

If you look at the trend from the 80s to ~2013 most minor premiers if they didn’t win the flag in the same season they finished on top seem to have won a premiership in the year either side. That’s something which also hasn’t happened since 2013, except for Richmond in 2018. Connection between finals success and home and away performance is becoming more tenuous. There’s no where to hide in finals. You can have a front running game style which is totally unaccountable in home and away games and dominate while having poor team defence/contested ball, but you'll be exposed as the finals series wears on.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Richmond owned the 2018 season and then Mason Cox played his only ever standout game and that was the end of what would probably have been a 4 peat

Richmond were four goals behind at quarter time in that prelim before Cox kicked his three goals in the second quarter. His influence on that result is hugely overstated. The Tigers were annihilated in the midfield, and their form towards the end of the year wasn’t that strong.

 

[Xtreme]

Melbourne...
EAT
SLEEP
BREAK THE STREAK

 

[TP86]

There's a few common threads but does one stand out enough to make it a curse? I don't think so.

Beaten by better team: Port 2020, Collingwood 2011 (0-3 head to head with Geelong), Adelaide 2005

Choked: Fremantle 2015, Hawthorn 2012, Geelong 2008, Port 2003, Port 2002

Ladder position was misleading / Team overachieved: Geelong 2019 (went 5-5 back half of H&A season), Sydney 2014 (won the minor premiership by 2.1%)

Injuries to key players: Richmond 2018, Essendon 2001

Uncategorised: Adelaide 2017, Sydney 2016, St Kilda 2009,

 

[Freomaniac]

Since 2000 premiership winners from ladder position

1st: 6
2nd: 7
3rd: 7
4th: 0
5th: 0
6th: 0
7th: 1
8th: 0

what about grand finalists? Or the Runner ups or Grand final losers on where they came from on the ladder?

 

[nineteen eighty]

The two form teams in September are playing off. I personally think Melbourne's form is better than the Doggies. And I don't believe the Doggies forward line can kick enough goals against the Dees defence to win it.

For the Doggies to win, their mids will need to kick quite a few goals.

The unknown in all of this is whether the break is going to affect Melbourne. Will they be flat? They haven't played too much footy in September. And what they have, they won easily.

Dees for mine.

So what was this thread about again?

 

[Freomaniac]

There's a few common threads but does one stand out enough to make it a curse? I don't think so.

Beaten by better team: Port 2020, Collingwood 2011 (0-3 head to head with Geelong), Adelaide 2005

Choked: Fremantle 2015, Hawthorn 2012, Geelong 2008, Port 2003, Port 2002

Ladder position was misleading / Team overachieved: Geelong 2019 (went 5-5 back half of H&A season), Sydney 2014 (won the minor premiership by 2.1%)

Injuries to key players: Richmond 2018, Essendon 2001

Uncategorised: Adelaide 2017, Sydney 2016, St Kilda 2009,

Fremantle didn't choke in 2015. It was a case of getting injuries to certain players and didn't have enough good forwards to kick a good score. On the other hand, hawks kicked 15.4.94 that night.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

Fremantle didn't choke in 2015. It was a case of getting injuries to certain players and didn't have enough good forwards to kick a good score. On the other hand, hawks kicked 15.4.94 that night.

I was going to say, your lot weren’t really expected to win that one IIRC

 

[Mofra]

The last 8-9 premierships have been won by the aside who polled fewer Brownlow votes as a team.
Geez, the double curse puts the Bulldogs in a sweet position.