The NFL 2010/11 Thread

[Nothing]

Add *Best Bet*20 Units - Rashard Mendenhall < 117.5 combined yards vs. Patriots @ $1.87 (Sportingbet)

I saw this line and thought WTF? Not that Mendy isn't a top running back in the NFL, but to have a combined yardage line for a guy who is generally a non-factor in the passing game is strange to say the least. He had 3 receptions last week and for the first time this year, exceeded 15 yards receiving. Mendenhall also had upwards of 20 carries because the Steelers got out to a big lead (27-7) early in the game. I don't see either of those things happening here, and I imagine Moore and Redman will spell Mendy from time to time too. Not to mention there are serious concerns about the Steelers' O-line going into this game.

It really is a huge line. Wow.

Nice pick. Did he get injured or just not in any (many?) plays in the second half?

 

[sblack]

Steelers behind meant they had to throw. Mendy was fine

 

[tyram23]

Patriots are overated they wont cover that line. Reckon the 49ers will beat the Rams as well, Rams might cover 6 though. The others look alright.

My multi:
Bills win
Texans win
Titans/Dolphins over 43
Bears win
Chiefs win
Eagles/Redskins under 42.5

i was going to say i think steelers are the most overated team in the comp. today has confirmed this for me thought the pats were gonna do it the whole time but ur comment did scare me lol. well my multi won, money money money!

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Nice pick. Did he get injured or just not in any (many?) plays in the second half?

Yep, sblack was right, they just didn't run the ball in the 2nd half. Mind you, Mendenhall didn't have a gain over 3 yards aside from one 34-yarder. So he was lucky to have 55 total yards, erase that one and he'd have had 21 for the game.

Sorry to anyone who missed out on the best bet... which I suspect is nearly everyone. Sportingbet were just unbelievably late putting the market up, it wasn't there 3 hours before kickoff and I was at work on my iPhone when I saw it.

Overall, not a bad week. Bradford covered the line after a challenge was issued for a possible fumble with 47 seconds left to go. Bradshaw fell 16 yards short because the Giants got pantsed. Tomlinson scared the crap out of me by getting within 3 yards after an extra 15 mins in OT.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

 

[twarby]

stupid sportingnbet putting up the market late!

1/1 for me with the Bears covering

 

[danielz_23]

well... my 4 game multi is goin well atm, 3 have won just pats +4.5 to go and ill have my 13.84 odds winner!

Winner winner... Good work

Den-KC line looked like a moral and lived up to it in first 5 minutes. Surprising the way the score went (with Den D and KC yardage)

 

[The Royal Sampler]

NFL Bets Week 10

10 Units - Tony Gonzalez < 47.5 yards receiving vs. Ravens @ $1.86 (bet365)
5 Units - Derrick Mason to beat Michael Jenkins H2H in receiving yards @ $1.95 (centrebet) - DEAD HEAT
15 Units - LaDainian Tomlinson < 60.5 yards rushing vs. Browns @ $1.90 (bet365)
10 Units - Shaun Hill > 240.5 yards passing vs. Bills @ $1.80 (bet365)
10 Units - Ahmad Bradshaw > 88.5 yards rushing vs. Cowboys @ $1.83 (bet365)
10 Units - Sam Bradford < 220.5 yards passing vs. 49ers @ $1.86 (bet365)
10 Units - Jamaal Charles > 115.5 combined yards vs. Broncos @ $1.86 (bet365)
10 Units - Jacob Tamme > 58.5 yards receiving vs. Bengals @ $1.80 (bet365)
10 Units - Wes Welker < 56.5 yards receiving vs. Steelers @ $1.87 (luxbet)
10 Units - Minnesota to beat Chicago H2H in rushing yards x Pittsburgh to beat New England H2H in rushing yards @ $2.17 (centrebet)
5 Units - Mike Wallace to beat Deion Branch H2H in receiving yards x New York Giants to beat Dallas Cowboys H2H in rushing yards @ $1.99 (centrebet).
*Best Bet*20 Units - Rashard Mendenhall < 117.5 combined yards vs. Patriots @ $1.87 (Sportingbet)

Week 10 subtotal: +28.925 units

 

[eld246]

God Damn I had Cowboys +10.5 into Patriots into Titans.

Screw you Titans.

 

[danielz_23]

Eagles-Redskins over 5 sacks?

 

[sblack]

imo.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Over 5 sacks?

Hard to say; Vick hasn't been sacked any less than 3 times in any full game he's played this season. McNabb was only sacked the once in his last meeting with Philly, but he only had 19 pass attempts. The last four weeks he's been sacked 5, 3, 2 and 6 times.

So if forced to choose, I'd say over, but not with any particular insight or great confidence.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

BTW, I'm sorely tempted to jump on the +7.5 line (@ $1.74) for St. Louis @ 49ers this week. St. Louis are away, yes, but of their three road losses, 2 of them were by a combined 3 points. The Rams are 4-4 and the 49ers 2-6. How that makes them a 6-point favourite I'm not sure.

I totally should have backed my judgement here. I was going to multi them into Tampa, who I thought were morals, but when Tampa went from $1.38 to $1.30 I backed out.

EDIT: Not taking any plays on bet365 or centrebet for Philadelphia @ Washington, will see what luxbet and sportingbet put up later (hopefully not too much later!).

 

[tyram23]

I totally should have backed my judgement here. I was going to multi them into Tampa, who I thought were morals, but when Tampa went from $1.38 to $1.30 I backed out.

EDIT: Not taking any plays on bet365 or centrebet for Philadelphia @ Washington, will see what luxbet and sportingbet put up later (hopefully not too much later!).

hahhah i took rams +6 and i thought that was amazing! glad im not the only one who thought that... ah well time to think how im gonna waste my winnings this week hahahaha

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Add 5 Units - Chris Cooley to beat Brent Celek H2H in receiving yards @ $1.50 (Centrebet)

This is just for interest's sake really, but Celek's season high is within about ten yards of Cooley's low. I think the Eagles are likely to win and won't utilize Celek any more than average... which isn't much. Cooley on the other hand is the 2nd best receiving option on a team that is likely to be playing from behind, against a team which is generous to the TE position.

 

[Nothing]

Desean Jackson with an 88 yd first play TD. That'll screw Moss getting within 5 yards.

 

[danielz_23]

Over 5 sacks?

Hard to say; Vick hasn't been sacked any less than 3 times in any full game he's played this season. McNabb was only sacked the once in his last meeting with Philly, but he only had 19 pass attempts. The last four weeks he's been sacked 5, 3, 2 and 6 times.

So if forced to choose, I'd say over, but not with any particular insight or great confidence.

7pm-10pm last night - lets go Philly big, I really like Eagles here and don't like Redskins, even though they burn mea bit... -10 points... $2.70 or something... yep sure...

10:10pm - hmmm, Redskins are coming off the bye... unlikely they wont put up a good show with all this time to prepare. Its generally how it goes. Better not gamble the result, we'll find another market (sacks)

next day, 1:30pm - DOH!!

 

[IDIG]

I put half a unit on the redskins h2h, last i checked the scores were 21-0. Any chance something has changed (for the better)?

 

[iluvparis]

It is now 42-14

Michael Vick may be putting up the best first half in NFL history - and no I am not joking

265 yards passing with 3 TDs
66 yards rushing with 2 TDs

and still has a minute left with possesion left in the half.

OUT OF THIS WORLD!!!!

 

[sblack]

I put half a unit on the redskins h2h, last i checked the scores were 21-0. Any chance something has changed (for the better)?

No. It's currently HT, 45-14.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Cooley was terrible but predictably, Celek was worse.

I'm going to exclude the dead heat from the strike rate, because I don't know what to do with it, but I'll include the money lost (0.125 units) in my P/L.

Week 1 total: +15.40 units
Week 2 total: +11.35 units
Week 3 total: +2.35 units
Week 4 total: +6.75 units
Week 5 total: +2.80 units
Week 6 total: +44.25 units
Week 7 total: +28.00 units
Week 8 total: -35.70 units
Week 9 total: +2.10 units
Week 10 total: +31.43 units
YTD P/L: +108.73 units
Overall S/R: 68/110 (61.82%)
Best Bets S/R: 8/9 (88.89%)

Week 11 starts Friday afternoon AEST, with the Dolphins hosting the Chicago Bears. Bye weeks have now concluded.

 

[twarby]

very nice week Royal

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Thanks mate, it's taken me two weeks and I still haven't quite repaired the damage of week 8, at least in NFL P/L terms, but my bankroll is building nicely.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

NFL Bets Week 11

10 Units - Anthony Fasano > 40.5 yards receiving vs. Bears @ $1.86 (bet365)

Those of you who have been following my selections will realise that I've been burned by Fasano overs before... yet here we are again. After both Chad Pennington and Chad Henne were injured and exited last week's game, Tyler Thigpen took over as Miami's QB and who did he look to? Anthony Fasano. Fasano went off for 107 yards, in fact. Will history repeat itself? Probably not. Will Fasano's on-field chemistry with Thigpen see him exceed 40 yards this week? Probably.

10 Units - Johnny Knox to beat Brandon Marshall H2H in receiving yards @ $2.00 (centrebet)

Brandon Marshall is a beast, but he's not being properly utilised in the Miami offence and Miami are down to their third-string QB against Chicago. Thigpen has spent virtually zero practice time with Marshall prior to the last four days, and couldn't find him with a map and a compass last week. Marshall's last four weeks; 57, 64, 30 and 34 yards. Knox's; 120, 86, 49 and 90. Marshall is $1.70 and I can't figure why Knox is the dog in this matchup.

 

[tige19]

Loving the $2.24 betfairs offering the Bears and fair to say I've got a decent play on them. They travel well and there offence was hot last week against a far superior defensive unit in the Vikes, as long as they can conver 40-50% of there 3rd downs they'll win.

Have no idea why the Dolphins are favs, despite the 3rd stringer doing well last week he is coming up against one of if not the stingiest Ds in the league.

Bears 24-13 winners for me. Wouldn't be surprised though of the line 40.5 gets covered however i doubt the Dolphins run game can do much damage, they pose far less of a threat than Peterson last week and the bears held him to 50yds.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I notice Sportingbet have a Knox +5.5 vs. Marshall -5.5 market up now, and Knox is $1.65 to Marshall $2.15.

Methinks the bookies went with the name brand, so I'm happy to give up that 5.5 yards for an extra $0.35 in the dollar.