The NFL 2010/11 Thread

[sblack]

Knox beats Marshall, with some help from Brandon pulling his hamstring.

Fasano. 0 receptions. Wait, just got his first with 30 seconds left in the game. Only 16 yards though.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Pfffft. Note to self; don't go chasing Fasano's last week's production. Apparently he had only one target for the game, so it's not Fasano's fault; he caught it.

Break even for the week so far as Knox was $2.

 

[Sasquatch]

Boise St -29.5 @ $1.91

Boise St -17.5 @ $1.95 (First Half)

 

[Cruiser23]

Boise St -29.5 @ $1.91

Boise St -17.5 @ $1.95 (First Half)

Been looking at this for a while, that is a big line against a fairly good team in Fresno that went down to Nevada by just one last week. Boise do need to put up big wins against them and then Nevada next week (look ahead, maybe?) to boost their chance at getting into the Championship Game though. Thing is Boise stops the run whilst Fresno relies on their offensive run game fairly heavily, doesn't bode well for Fresno. My initial play was Boise at the line, will probably still take it, hard to go past them them right now, they can cover big spreads no doubt.

 

[Cruiser23]

Kellen Moore spuding it up...

 

[twarby]

i was leaning on Fresno to cover during the week, but jumped on Boise -28.5 just before kick off
17-0 at the moment, fingers crossed i made the right decision..

 

[Sasquatch]

Fresno don't look like scoring.

Boise slow start has screwed the first half cover.

They should win this by over 30 though.

 

[twarby]

Boise cover HT in the end.

 

[twarby]

cash it

Royal do you like any of the player showdowns sporting has up?

 

[The Royal Sampler]

The one that appeals most is;
10 Units - Josh Freeman +10.5 yards to beat Carson Palmer H2H in passing yards @ $2.10.

I'll feel better when I get absolute confirmation that Mike Williams plays, but Palmer isn't nearly the QB he was 4 or 5 years ago. He gets all his passing yards in junk time while playing catch up. Buffalo are in the top-five least-thrown-on teams in the NFL, mostly because their run defence is so awful but also because they struggle to score and so teams rarely if ever play them from behind. Ochocinco has a shoulder injury and is struggling to raise his arm above his head.

Josh Freeman is a quiet achiever, coming up against the highly competent 49ers run defence and their awful secondary. I really can't see Blount being used a whole lot in this game, and as it's on the road there is potential for the Bucs to be down and throwing. 7 of the last 8 QBs facing the 49ers have thrown for 250 yards or more, including Matt Moore and Matt Cassel.

 

[BarryG]

Have a $70 freebet to use. There is something about taking the Colts over the Pats that is appealling to me. $2.70 last i looked.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Add *Best Bet* 20 Units - Shonn Greene > 54.5 yards rushing vs. Texans @ $1.83 (bet365)

Greene is now part of a 50-50 split in the NYJ backfield, and what that effectively means is that Greene gets more of the run plays because a) he's had a better YPC average than Tomlinson in each of the past 5 weeks, and b) because Tomlinson is seen as the better pass catcher so they use him more on passing situations. Greene had 72 yards (albeit with a little OT help, but he had this line covered in regulation) against the stiff Cleveland run defence, this week it will be easier and at the Meadowlands the Jets will have little trouble keeping it close. This line looks very generous and one suspects that the bookies haven't yet grasped the role changes in New York.

10 Units - Brian Cushing > 7.5 tackles/assists vs. Jets @ $1.83 (bet365)

Cushing had a couple of down weeks when switching from his natural position to cover for the injured DeMeco Ryans. Last week he returned to his LOLB position and his tackle count bounced back up to 9. I see that as being about his par, so I'll take the > 7.5 here. Not many teams run the ball heavily against the Texans as their secondary is the worst in the league, but the Jets' offensive identity is via the ground, so Cushing stands to get plenty of opportunities.

10 Units - Dhani Jones > 7.5 tackles/assists vs. Bills @ $1.71 (bet365)

Jones has had 9 and 13 total tackles in his last two games, and given the solid play of the Bengals' corners, I think the Bills will make sure Fred Jackson gets plenty of carries against the Cincy run defence which only ranks #23 in the NFL. Therefore the likelihood is that Jones continues on his merry way.

10 Units - Stephen Tulloch > 7.5 tackles/assists vs. Redskins @ $1.71 (bet365)

Tulloch's surpassed this total in the last seven games straight. I suspect this line has to do with the fact that the top tackler (for Philly) against the Redskins last week recorded only 5 tackles, but it's worth remembering that Washington were completely blown out of the water, falling behind 35-0 at one point. Subsequently the time in possession was Philly 38:11, Wash 21:49. It's pretty hard to amass a tackle count when the opposition's offence are never on the field. I think Tulloch maintains his streak this week.

10 Units - Jamaal Charles > 75.5 yards rushing vs. Cardinals @ $1.80 (bet365)

JC of KC had to get the job done in the passing game last week, as the Broncos came out from their bye week and ran up the score early against the Chiefs. This time they're at home and facing the amusingly bad Cardinals defence. The Cards rank 27th vs the pass and 28th vs the run, but the key stat is that Kansas City have the #1 rushing offence in the league. If JC breaks off a signature run, this line could be covered in the first quarter, but even if he doesn't, expect a big bounce back from his 2.9 YPC last week.

10 Units - Dez Bryant > 68.5 yards receiving vs. Lions @ $1.80 (bet365)

The injury to Romo and subsequent rise of Kitna seems to have benefitted one player above all others; Dez Bryant. His three games with Kitna under centre have resulted in tallies of 84, 86 and 104 yards. In fact, in that 86-yard performance against Green Bay, Bryant had 9 receptions compared to 10 for the entire rest of the team ("Dallas minus Bryant" managed 97 yards receiving). Detroit rank a pedestrian 17th against the pass and 26th against the run, but as Dallas have no particular running game to speak of, I'd expect Bryant to get his usual slew of targets. The fact that Detroit have a half-decent offence only helps Dallas' potential in the passing game.

10 Units - Denver Broncos +10.5 @ San Diego @ $1.76 (bet365)

It's fair to say the Chargers are approaching Dallas-like levels of overratedness when they can be 10-point favourites with a losing record against a team who just put the KC Chiefs well and truly to the sword. It's true that Rivers can throw successfully to lawn chairs, as one scribe deftly put it last week, but the YAC ability has to go down when Gates, Floyd and rookie running back Ryan Mathews are all likely non-starters. The Chargers have a great defence who make scoring difficult, but the Broncos have managed to find the endzone against tough teams this year, and have the ability to score when down and throwing. I'm taking the big headstart, which is also available for $1.75 on centrebet currently.

 

[Cruiser23]

I wish College Football was everyday...

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Add 15 Units - Santana Moss to beat Randy Moss H2H in receiving yards @ $1.85 (centrebet)

In this battle of the mosses, I'm surprised Santana isn't shorter. Tennessee simply don't throw the ball a lot when Vince Young is under centre. Randy Moss had one catch in his debut for the Titans, going for 26 yards, and 8 yards in his last game for the Vikings. Santana Moss had a crap week last week (as did Washington as a whole) and still recorded 3 catches for 28 yards, that was his only outing of his last five in which he's totalled fewer than 5 receptions in a game. Randy Moss can do anything any given week, but it seems to make sense to make the bookies pay in between time.

 

[loyallion]

Anyone know the odds of the Colts beating the Pats for 2moro mornings game?

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Colts are $2.70 on centrebet and luxbet, $2.75 on bet365, $2.80 on sportingbet, sportsbet and iasbet.

Incidentally, that Josh Freeman +10.5 bet is into $1.95 from $2.10.

 

[The_Doctor]

Anyone know the odds of the Colts beating the Pats for 2moro mornings game?

$2.80 @ sportingbet

 

[tyram23]

got another 4 game multi on hopefully get lucky again!

ravens -10.5
packers -3
browns/jags over 43 total points
giants/eagles over 47.5 total points

$20 for another $250 profit

 

[twarby]

taking a few plays this week after a good week elsewhere.

Ravens -10
Packers -2.5
Falcons -3
Broncos/Chargers over 50
Giants + 3.5
Giants ML

 

[Bic]

Add *Best Bet* 20 Units - Shonn Greene > 54.5 yards rushing vs. Texans @ $1.83 (bet365)

Greene is now part of a 50-50 split in the NYJ backfield, and what that effectively means is that Greene gets more of the run plays because a) he's had a better YPC average than Tomlinson in each of the past 5 weeks, and b) because Tomlinson is seen as the better pass catcher so they use him more on passing situations. Greene had 72 yards (albeit with a little OT help, but he had this line covered in regulation) against the stiff Cleveland run defence, this week it will be easier and at the Meadowlands the Jets will have little trouble keeping it close. This line looks very generous and one suspects that the bookies haven't yet grasped the role changes in New York.

10 Units - Brian Cushing > 7.5 tackles/assists vs. Jets @ $1.83 (bet365)

Cushing had a couple of down weeks when switching from his natural position to cover for the injured DeMeco Ryans. Last week he returned to his LOLB position and his tackle count bounced back up to 9. I see that as being about his par, so I'll take the > 7.5 here. Not many teams run the ball heavily against the Texans as their secondary is the worst in the league, but the Jets' offensive identity is via the ground, so Cushing stands to get plenty of opportunities.

10 Units - Dhani Jones > 7.5 tackles/assists vs. Bills @ $1.71 (bet365)

Jones has had 9 and 13 total tackles in his last two games, and given the solid play of the Bengals' corners, I think the Bills will make sure Fred Jackson gets plenty of carries against the Cincy run defence which only ranks #23 in the NFL. Therefore the likelihood is that Jones continues on his merry way.

10 Units - Stephen Tulloch > 7.5 tackles/assists vs. Redskins @ $1.71 (bet365)

Tulloch's surpassed this total in the last seven games straight. I suspect this line has to do with the fact that the top tackler (for Philly) against the Redskins last week recorded only 5 tackles, but it's worth remembering that Washington were completely blown out of the water, falling behind 35-0 at one point. Subsequently the time in possession was Philly 38:11, Wash 21:49. It's pretty hard to amass a tackle count when the opposition's offence are never on the field. I think Tulloch maintains his streak this week.

10 Units - Jamaal Charles > 75.5 yards rushing vs. Cardinals @ $1.80 (bet365)

JC of KC had to get the job done in the passing game last week, as the Broncos came out from their bye week and ran up the score early against the Chiefs. This time they're at home and facing the amusingly bad Cardinals defence. The Cards rank 27th vs the pass and 28th vs the run, but the key stat is that Kansas City have the #1 rushing offence in the league. If JC breaks off a signature run, this line could be covered in the first quarter, but even if he doesn't, expect a big bounce back from his 2.9 YPC last week.

10 Units - Dez Bryant > 68.5 yards receiving vs. Lions @ $1.80 (bet365)

The injury to Romo and subsequent rise of Kitna seems to have benefitted one player above all others; Dez Bryant. His three games with Kitna under centre have resulted in tallies of 84, 86 and 104 yards. In fact, in that 86-yard performance against Green Bay, Bryant had 9 receptions compared to 10 for the entire rest of the team ("Dallas minus Bryant" managed 97 yards receiving). Detroit rank a pedestrian 17th against the pass and 26th against the run, but as Dallas have no particular running game to speak of, I'd expect Bryant to get his usual slew of targets. The fact that Detroit have a half-decent offence only helps Dallas' potential in the passing game.

10 Units - Denver Broncos +10.5 @ San Diego @ $1.76 (bet365)

It's fair to say the Chargers are approaching Dallas-like levels of overratedness when they can be 10-point favourites with a losing record against a team who just put the KC Chiefs well and truly to the sword. It's true that Rivers can throw successfully to lawn chairs, as one scribe deftly put it last week, but the YAC ability has to go down when Gates, Floyd and rookie running back Ryan Mathews are all likely non-starters. The Chargers have a great defence who make scoring difficult, but the Broncos have managed to find the endzone against tough teams this year, and have the ability to score when down and throwing. I'm taking the big headstart, which is also available for $1.75 on centrebet currently.

Tailing you this week, all the best!

p.s Maybe time to change the value of your units? Or are you that confident with all your plays

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Yeah, I'm not entirely sure with the value of my units, I think I'll keep 'em the same for the rest of this season, and then change the value for next season.

 

[lugarno]

Good luck TRS! will take your best bet play

 

[loyallion]

$2.80 @ sportingbet

I wasthinking about putting money on them but at that price it aint worth it

 

[Cruiser23]

Hopefully i don't bugger up my great day/night yesterday. Will be taking...

Santana Moss over Randy Moss @ $1.80 WIN

Baltimore Ravens -12.5 over Carolina @ $1.91 WIN
Detroit +6 against Dallas @ $1.91 LOSS
Detroit/Dallas Over 47.5 @ $1.91 WIN
Atlanta -3 @ $1.76 WIN

All your plays are way way too short now TRS, Greene @ $1.54, Jones @ $1.66, no value anymore.

 

[Cruiser23]

I wasthinking about putting money on them but at that price it aint worth it

Not with the injuries we have.