Mega Thread The official remainder of 2012 prognostication thread

[Dixie Flatline]

Alright, only four rounds of the home and away season left to play before the finals commence. With a wide open top eight, there is still plenty of interest left in which club will finish where. Ladder predictors abound over the internet, so there's no excuse not to have a crack at picking which club finishes where, who wins through to the grand final and who takes the flag.

For mine, I see the round 22 clash between Sydney and Hawthorn in Sydney being pivotal to the Hawks' chances. If the Hawks win that game (and they did beat Sydney at the SCG last year, don't forget) then Hawthorn would be odds-on to finish second and possibly host the Swans in a qualifying final at the MCG a fortnight later (and the Swans' record at the MCG is relatively very poor). The Hawks lose that game, then it's likely a trip to AAMI Stadium to play the Crows in the qualifying final. Not the end of the world, but the Hawks haven't travelled to Adelaide all that well of late (especially against the Crows).

Thoughts?

 

[Henry Jr]

So you have Sydney losing two of their final games then Dixie for us to finish 2nd?

They play the Pies @ ANZ, Doggies @ Etihad, Hawks @ SCG and Cats @ KP

 

[MinerBoy]

Pies have generally had the wood (no pun) on Sydney and Cats at KP is no walk in the park. Quite possible they could lose both of those but at the same time, this Sydney team is playing pretty good footy this year and have overcome pretty much everything thrown at them so far.

The best we can do is win them all and then just see how things pan out. The Crows are over rated and I would love to see Freo find a way over them this week. Not sure if they have any other games that could challenge them. Pies have Swans/WCE. Swans have Cats/Hawks/Pies.

We're still a chance of a home final.

 

[Cynic]

The important teams (Regarding T4)
Sydney, Adelaide, Collingwood & Hawthorn

The important games
RD20 Sydney v Collingwood ANZ
RD22 Sydney v Hawthorn SCG
RD23 Geelong v Sydney SS

If Sydney beat us we finish fourth and play Sydney at ANZ unless Sydney lose to both Collingwood & Geelong in which case it's Adelaide at AAMI.

If we beat Sydney...
Sydney / Geelong - ADE, HAW, SYD, COL
Sydney / Sydney - SYD, ADE, HAW, COL
Collingwood / Geelong - ADE, COL, HAW, SYD
Collingwood / Sydney - ADE, COL, HAW, SYD

In short from what I can see if we beat Sydney we avoid playing Sydney in the QF but if we lose to them we most likely have to front up again against them

 

[Jaeger]

I used the ladder predictor on the AFL site, every match won or lost by 12 points, even though it's likely we'll beat Port and Gold Coast by more.

Hawthorn - Port (win), Gold Coast (win), Sydney (loss), West Coast (win)

1. Adelaide
2. Collingwood
3. Sydney
4. Hawthorn

The top 2 are decided by percentage, so could easily be Collingwood first, Crows second.

 

[Cynic]

I used the ladder predictor on the AFL site, every match won or lost by 12 points, even though it's likely we'll beat Port and Gold Coast by more.

Hawthorn - Port (win), Gold Coast (win), Sydney (loss), West Coast (win)

1. Adelaide
2. Collingwood
3. Sydney
4. Hawthorn

The top 2 are decided by percentage, so could easily be Collingwood first, Crows second.

You think Freo will beat Adelaide?

 

[Jaeger]

You think Freo will beat Adelaide?

No, but I think Collingwood will win their remaining four games against Sydney, North, West Coast and Essendon.

 

[Skyfire15]

I'm assuming Adelaide run the fixture and finish 18-4 and claim top spot. With games Vs Freo (home) Bris & Melb (Away) GC (home) means they shouldn't lose again. Freo is the exception with their current form. But we'll assume home ground gets the crows over the line this week.

So with Friday nights slip up, we now can't afford to drop another game if we want to claim the other top 2 spot. Albeit we now have lost full control of our destiny as we need other results to go our way. Our next two are hopefully what they should be; walk ups. With all due respect to the PAFC and GCFC.

If we then knock off Sydney in Syd and take care of WCE at home, we are still relying on Sydney to drop 1 other game (best chances Vs Coll & Vs Geel @ KP) As well as Collingwood dropping another game (Syd, NM, WCE (Perth) & Ess) If Coll's loss is to come against Sydney, then our fate regarding whether we finish 2nd and host Syd or 3rd and travel to Syd in a QF may rest (ironically) with Geelong and whether they can beat Syd in the last round at Kardinia Park. Go Cats


There's so many variables it's still impossible to predict. However our path in the finals will be interstate (at least once/ hopefully once) if we lose to Sydney. That's the game we absolutely must win.

 

[hawkheart]

How do people rate the difficulty of a first up final, assuming a top 4 finish? For me, from best case to worse case it's
1. v Coll MCG
2. v Adel AAMI
3. v Sydney at ANZ

I can't see us hosting either Syd or Adel at the 'G (obviously the most preferable outcome)

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Adelaide's draw: Freo (AAMI), Brisbane (G), Melbourne (MCG), Gold Coast (AAMI)
Ridiculously easy draw. If they're going to lose a game it'll be this weekend. Can't see it happening though

Collingwood's draw: Sydney (ANZ) Nth Melb (ES), West Coast (PS), Essendon (MCG)
Who can read Collingwood at the moment? JUST got over St Kilda, they've got major issues in the front and back end but still find ways to win, unconvincingly, most weeks. Would do us a favour if they could beat Sydney, but we'd also like them to then lose to WCE just so they don't get too far ahead of themselves.

Sydney's draw: Collingwood (ANZ), Bulldogs (ES), Hawthorn (SCG), Geelong (SS)
Toughest draw of the group. Could lose 1, 2 or 3, (or none!) My gut feel is that they'll lose two games. Doggies is a certain win, and I think they're more likely to beat Geelong than the other two.

Hawthorn's draw: Port (Tas), GC (MCG), Syd (SCG), WCE (MCG)
4 wins, nothing surer.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

So you have Sydney losing two of their final games then Dixie for us to finish 2nd?

They play the Pies @ ANZ, Doggies @ Etihad, Hawks @ SCG and Cats @ KP

Yep. Had the Swans beating Collingwood and the Bulldogs, then losing to Hawthorn and to Geelong in round 23.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

How do people rate the difficulty of a first up final, assuming a top 4 finish? For me, from best case to worse case it's
1. v Coll MCG
2. v Adel AAMI
3. v Sydney at ANZ

I can't see us hosting either Syd or Adel at the 'G (obviously the most preferable outcome)

If Sydney loses to Hawthorn and then to Geelong, it is possible for Hawthorn to finish second and Sydney to finish third - in which Hawthorn would host Sydney at the MCG.

However, if Sydney loses to Collingwood this weekend, I don't think it is possible for Hawthorn to finish above Sydney and host the Swans in a home qualifying final because Collingwood would go above Hawthorn.

 

[Hungry Hawk]

The Collingwood Saints arse ream will have a significant impact on the final four. A draw would have been as good as a loss.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

Port - Win
GC - Win
Syd - Loss
WCE - Win

1st Final Away - Loss
2nd Home Final - Loss

Straight sets thank me later

 

[bards]

For top 2, we basically need Sydney and Collingwood to drop a game, not including our game against Sydney. Therefore, this week will get us half way there. Which way is the question. If Collingwood win, then we'll be relying on Geelong to beat Sydeny in the last round, possible. If Sydney win we'll need Collingwood to lose to North or West Coast over there. Possible as well. I'm conceding Adelaide will finish top. If they lose this week it all changes though. I have a feeling that it might fall our way, but if not a trip to Adelaide wouldn't worry me.

 

[MinerBoy]

It's only 7 straight wins either way. Get on board.

 

[spudmaster]

I'd like the Pies first up and then for them to meet the cats the week after. They'd be out in straight sets

 

[Cynic]

The Pies still terrify me in terms of finals...I know we took them to pieces but they're still major major threats in my opinion

 

[hawkheart]

I don't want to see the cats again this season

 

[Skyfire15]

The Pies still terrify me in terms of finals...I know we took them to pieces but they're still major major threats in my opinion

Me too! If we are to salute this year, we are going to have to beat at least one of Collingwood and/or Geelong in a final. Lot's of demons to over come. Exciting that we get another crack at it though.

 

[Flamin Joe]

Still can't believe Adelaide could quite easily finish top. If that doesn't say there's something seriously wrong with the draw then nothing will.

 

[Hungry Hawk]

The truth always comes out in finals. I hope we get the responsibility of revealing it.

 

[Rushed_Behind]

Geelong can finish top 4, so like someone said its

1) too hard to predict and

2) look above

 

[go hawks!!!]

We will win all four, no doubt

 

[Hawkas1988]

Port - Win
GC - Win
Syd - Loss
WCE - Win

1st Final Away - Loss
2nd Home Final - Loss

Straight sets thank me later

You have to be the most pessimistic supporter ever, you rarely post positive news or predictions about the Hawks, seriously do you actually enjoy being a supporter?

Have some faith